Grim Predicitons from Russian Analyst

[poak]

A former analyst for the KGB has predicted the fall of the US.

Not that I believe he's right, but it's an interesting article.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

IGOR PANARIN

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

Write to Andrew Osborn at andrew.osborn@wsj.com

EDIT: Be sure to checkout the link to WSJ's site. It includes a map of the predicted break-up of the states... notice where TN is.

Edited December 30, 2008 by poak

[mousegunner]

This analysis of the future of the USA is really a far-out Russian dream. I would predict a recession for 2009, and creeping socialism for the USA, but all the other stuff just isn't possible. Actually, I would be happy to see the USA split into six distinct nations, with the SOUTH rising again! But, it's not going to happen.

I hope our ideas about Russia are not as unrealistic as this man's ideas about the USA!

[Guest dwrd]

I see TN going along with the blue section more than the red. Or just a big orange dot in the middle of the rest.

[poak]

I see TN going along with the blue section more than the red. Or just a big orange dot in the middle of the rest.

That was my thought as well!

[G27]

Typical cold-war-era propaganda. For a supposed 'expert' one wonders how he thinks TN, KY and SC would end up with the yanks...

[Guest mn32768]

I believe the article was written to distract the Russian public from the ongoing -- and escalating -- Russian civil war. The invasion of Georgia was just the beginning...

[ftncityfatboy]

Typical cold-war-era propaganda. For a supposed 'expert' one wonders how he thinks TN, KY and SC would end up with the yanks...

+1 sounds like typical propoganda to me!

[poak]

I doubt TN or SC would be part of this guy's predicted North American EU, but Kentucky?

Psssssh.. Kentucky wasn't even with us last time.

[Guest Abominable_Hillbilly]

I doubt TN or SC would be part of this guy's predicted North American EU, but Kentucky?

Psssssh.. Kentucky wasn't even with us last time.

I have no doubt that the next two years are going to see some really awful changes. I seriously doubt, however, that Cocke County is going to be taking tea.

[DavidD]

The Vodka must be getting really strong over there.......

[Magiccarpetrides]

LOL yeah I busted up laughing when I read that Texas would be assimilated into Mexico...hahaha and the part about TN joining the northeastern states....HAHAHAHA Maybe just Naifeh.

[Oh Shoot]

Actually, he could be right about the approximate timeline. Or not.

But when the inevitable Big Crash eventually happens, it will be world-wide. No individual country will be strong enough to "take" a significant portion of any of the other major players. All will have their hands full with similarly grim internal meltdowns.

- OS

[Hooker771]

I sure as hell dont want to be under the Mexican influence. I feel like im already there every time I go into Dalton. The EU or Canada has to be better right.

[poak]

I think a serious flaw in this guy's theory is the fact that, not only would these "new colonizers" be fighting off the inhabitants of their newly acquired lands, but they'll be fighting each other in trying to establish new borders. It just can't happen.

Methinks it's wishful thinking on Russia's behalf in regards to their desire for Alaska.

[Magiccarpetrides]

I think a serious flaw in this guy's theory is the fact that, not only would these "new colonizers" be fighting off the inhabitants of their newly acquired lands, but they'll be fighting each other in trying to establish new borders. It just can't happen.

Methinks it's wishful thinking on Russia's behalf in regards to their desire for Alaska.

Me thinks one day Alaska will be fought over, but whether it be Russia, China, or someone else is yet to be determined. The Arctic might provide a good battleground too if oil goes crazy again since no country lays claim to it.

[Punisher84]

Me thinks one day Alaska will be fought over, but whether it be Russia, China, or someone else is yet to be determined. The Arctic might provide a good battleground too if oil goes crazy again since no country lays claim to it.

Under Siege 4: Battle for the Arctic

[poak]

Nobody wants Alaska... they want what's UNDERNEATH Alaska.

Leave it to me to insert the obligatory semantics into threads...

But in all seriousness, you're right about the Arctic. Russia and China aside, I wonder what some of these mid-east countries will do when there supply of oil is tapped dry... seek more in the Arctic?

[Farman]

:panic: Another Y2K.

"Actually, I would be happy to see the USA split into six distinct nations, with the SOUTH rising again!"

Charlie Daniels for President.

Jack Daniels for VP.

[BigPoppa]

Align me with Canada, eh ?

Molson, hockey, LaBatt blue, Anne Murray, free health care

Maybe I could get a lateral transfer and become a Mountie ! I look good in red. oui oui !!

[Mike.357]

Seriously there is no telling what could happen in the next couple of years.

Stock up on ammo. If a civil war did happen you don't want to get caught short.

[Guest SUNTZU]

The new leader of Texas.

[strickj]

Nobody wants Alaska... they want what's UNDERNEATH Alaska.

Leave it to me to insert the obligatory semantics into threads...

Maybe they just want what runs Alaska eh.

Id tap her fer oil,eh!

[poak]

Maybe they just want what runs Alaska eh.

Id tap her fer oil,eh!

[Guest db99wj]

Yea, no.

They have their own problems and We ain't going with the north, course you would have to fix a few cities like Memphis, but stuff like that has been done before, like fires!

Oh, I like Texas...and Montana. Montana would be Montana, not canadia, eh.

[Moped]

I think this guy is on crack. While I do think there is some sort of possiblity of a Civil War, I think it's very slim. I think a depression is a much, much more likely senerio. I also don't see this country falling under the influence of any other country. I think at the worst we'd become isolationist.