Death knell for 22 ammo speculators?

[Currently]

Given the impetus driving that market was the fear that BHO was going to ban and/or regulate the heck out of firearms and ammo ...

Do you believe that as a result of the recent elections, that fear has gone away and these speculators are now sitting on hundreds of thousands of rounds that are now worth MSRP?

Please let it be so!

The only way to sustain that market is to buy everything in sight ... I don't see this happening.

Comments?

[hipower]

Interesting theory. I would hope it plays out in that fashion.

I'd like to buy a few dozen bricks at realistic pricing. lol

[mikegideon]

It may help. A big part of the problem is still there. I think they sold a lot of .22 caliber guns during the panic. So, you have a real demand out there too. I haven't shot any of my .22's in years, but will restock my ammo if it ever gets plentiful again.

[No_0ne]

The election will prove to be irrelevant to .22 availability.  Production capacity hasn't changed significantly, and most likely won't in the foreseeable future.  Prior to the latest madness, production was barely ( and often not) meeting demand, the last few years have brought a large number of new purchasers to the market who don't  balk at paying 10 cents per round for the caliber, hoarders are still stocking up, foreign demand has reduced availability of that ammo for market here, and materials and component pricing increases have made the "old normal" prices economically obsolete.  When the market finally stabilizes, expect the "new normal" pricing structure to be somewhere around 7-10 cents per round for common 22lr ...

[Randall53]

It's beginning to show up more and more as the weeks go by. The prices have always been normal at places like Walmart when it was available, but most was snatched up and resold at exhorbitant prices. Now when you see it at the local LGS, it's about triple + from what it was pre Sandy Hook. A brick of 550 federal bulk up to $49 from $12 back then. It will take a real flooded market with shelves running over for that to happen if it ever does.  JMO of course. 

 

I just thought about something, I was with a friend a couple of weeks ago and we ran into a local walmart and they had boxes of 50 22LR for $2.50 a box but we could only buy 1 box each. They had about 50 boxes. Walmart can still get it cheap when they get it, but not the LGS...they pay premium prices.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Randall53

[No_0ne]

Walmart contracts for today's ammo were signed years ago, when the current contracts expire expect pricing to increase to closer to current market norms ...

[maroonandwhite]

I went to Walmart this morning and everything was fully stocked except for .22lr of course. First election in years that hasn't made folks line up. I picked a good time to buy an AR!

[Guest BCR#1]

If the new norm was $.07 right now, Federal 550 bulk boxes would be $40.00+ OTD at wally world. The gougers would then be justified in asking $50.00 for the same item. My personal opinion is it will be years, if ever that .22lr will be available in quantities like pre Sandyhook.

 

Bill

[hipower]

If the new norm was $.07 right now, Federal 550 bulk boxes would be $40.00+ OTD at wally world. The gougers would then be justified in asking $50.00 for the same item. My personal opinion is it will be years, if ever that .22lr will be available in quantities like pre Sandyhook.
 
Bill

As far as on the store shelves, I agree with you. For individual lgs, I've seen literally hundreds of boxes of various 22 in different high volume sellers operations.

At higher prices of course. But that may well be the future.

[Hershmeister]

Just wait for the democratic primaries to start up next year. They have to appeal to their base to get votes, so expect lots of antigun talk. Will this drive gun and ammo demand as people get nervous hearing it? Possibly.

Post primary I would not expect much gun talk as its not proven to be a nationally winning issue.

The anti's will continue their cloward and piven strategy of working the "system" to makes life difficult for their enemies and issues which their base cares abouy

[graycrait]

ammo production has remained at relatively consistent production levels with pre-sandy hook numbers vs a demand level maintained by gougers and hoarders, more gun sales,  lots of high capacity .22 plinkers and "tactical" pistols/conversions.  Profit per round too low for increasing capacity.   It won't happen but a .22lr buying moratorium would help especially those folk who buy from gougers out of panic, and seem to continue to do so. Paying 10+ cents a round for ammo that a big box store can sell for 5 cents is the act of the rich or numb skulls.  Sure prices have gone up but the store I work at didn't start selling firearms until a little over a year ago and their price, when they have it of 100 rd boxes of Winchester Super X is 7.49.  Armscor 36 brain HV hollow points were 3.59 the other day.  I saw CCI Quiet and Std Velocity midday for sale at Walmart just in the last few weeks.  I think the days of sub 4 cent ammo may be over whatever the reason.  I would be happy to be able to buy a case of CCI Std Velocity and call it a year.  Fortunately I have been able to live off of my pre-Sandy Hook ammo for the most part, but have gathered a few bricks here and there through gun trading.  Funny thing is that in certain retailers there seems to be a lot of Norma Tac 22 floating around for around 11-12 cents/rd.  The gougers are still successful in perpetuating the myth and fanning irrational fears that the party controlling the executive branch is just minutes away from creating an executive order that will essentially do away with .22LR ammo forever.

Edited November 6, 2014 by graycrait

[No_0ne]

If the new norm was $.07 right now, Federal 550 bulk boxes would be $40.00+ OTD at wally world. The gougers would then be justified in asking $50.00 for the same item. My personal opinion is it will be years, if ever that .22lr will be available in quantities like pre Sandyhook.

 

Bill

 

And therein is the part of the problem, Walmart and other big-box retailers aren't charging market value for the ammo they sell.  If the retailers were properly pricing the ammo at market levels, reselling wouldn't be profitable.  This in and of itself won't solve the availability problem,demand would still outstrip supply and ammo would move as fast as it's on the shelves, but the resellers would have a harder time moving the product they are able to grab.

 

I still think you will see Walmart prices gradually rising slowly to 7-10 cents per round, and supply will remain extremely tight for the foreseeable future ...

[dawgdoc]

Even though some people bought up .22's during the panic, there may be people like me who sold their .22 guns.  I had bought an SR22 to be my training gun a year before Sandy Hook; I eventually sold it because it was easier to find 9 mm.  I really liked that gun, too, but I used the funds to buy my wife an LCP.  

 

Is there a simple explanation why .22LR can't be handloaded (not necessarily reloaded)?  Isn't it just the case, powder, and bullet?  I would think that the lack of primer would make it easier to manufacture.  I understand that the cases couldn't be re-used, but if dies and the supples were available, could you just make your own using new cases?

[Hershmeister]

The case contains the primer in the base

[Schadenfreude]

And there definitely is an art to producing reliable 22 there is a video out there showing cci's production of 22 that shows the priming process

[Omega]

Even though some people bought up .22's during the panic, there may be people like me who sold their .22 guns.  I had bought an SR22 to be my training gun a year before Sandy Hook; I eventually sold it because it was easier to find 9 mm.  I really liked that gun, too, but I used the funds to buy my wife an LCP.  

 

Is there a simple explanation why .22LR can't be handloaded (not necessarily reloaded)?  Isn't it just the case, powder, and bullet?  I would think that the lack of primer would make it easier to manufacture.  I understand that the cases couldn't be re-used, but if dies and the supples were available, could you just make your own using new cases?

They do make a reloading kit for .22 but I don't see the need.  .22 is a great plinking rounds but when the price per round gets too high its almost as cheap to just use a 5.56 instead.  There is even a YouTube vid of someone making their own primer compound out of match heads, works but even in a SHTF or survival situation, I would probably do something else.

[maroonandwhite]

Yeah if it doesn't start showing up within a year or so I will probably look to other calibers. I mean I have plenty of .22 but being able to walk into Walmart any day of the week and buy 5.56 or any other common caliber other than .22 (as I did this morning) is nice. The ONLY thing .22lr really does for me is be cheap. If it ain't doing that then i'm less interested. 

[Omega]

Yeah if it doesn't start showing up within a year or so I will probably look to other calibers. I mean I have plenty of .22 but being able to walk into Walmart any day of the week and buy 5.56 or any other common caliber other than .22 (as I did this morning) is nice. The ONLY thing .22lr really does for me is be cheap. If it ain't doing that then i'm less interested. 

I too have enough for what I NEED it for, squirrels, but if I ever run out it won't be the end of the world.  I only have three .22s, a 10/22, a Mark III and a Jennings .22 which I used to carry in my fishing boat with shotshells for water snakes.  I will probably just get a .410 or 20g, already eyeballin the circuit judge, I can reload that so shortages will be less likely.

[A.J. Holst]

I divested of my .22 long guns and substituted for a 9mm carbine (Hi Point)

Always bought "higher end" .22 for my pistols ($5/50 price point) because it cycled better than bulk.

Since no one shoots .22lr anymore in my family, I've got enough ammo to hold me over for a long while.

[nightrunner]

Im holding onto .22 purely for hunting purposes, its not worth training with anymore and when i finally get a reloading setup, i dont really see much need in it. Definitely not enough to deal with the scalpers

[Currently]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses, I cannot and will not subsidize a reseller. I'll either sell the gun or park it for whatever time it takes.

There is this burning fantasy I have, to watch all these resellers sit on a large quantity of ammo that is just now worth msrp.

I remember in economics class learning about the great tulip crash that happened in Holland where fortunes were lost and families ruined speculating on tulip bulbs.

I see a lot of parallels here ...

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp Edited November 8, 2014 by Currently

[Oh Shoot]

I see no death knell. As long as you can make even 10% on something bought at retail pricing,  people will continue to do it. Hell, if I could go to Sams and buy printer carts or whatever and turn them over for 10% profit, I'd keep their shelves bare too. Matter of fact, I did exactly that sort of thing back when etail was still in its infancy. I found that people on eBay would pay that 10% or more plus the shipping for the convenience of having stuff mailed to them.

 

Plus remember, these guys are mostly retired or make a non 9 to 5 type living, it's not like they even figure in their time to score the stuff.

 

- OS

Edited November 9, 2014 by Oh Shoot

[graycrait]

What I find most interesting about the .22 "thing" is how some people act when they get within spitting distance of bulk ammo at big box retail prices. Almost like heroin addicts, with no regard for anyone but themselves.  Go fishing, shoot an arrow, get a pellet gun, get a shotgun or another hobby until this thing settles out.    

 

What peeves me a might is that every time I look for reloading stuff for my .22 Hornet I find, "out of stock, no back order."  Good thing I have some friends who had stuff prior to the foolishness.

 

I still haven't picked up a decent pellet rifle, which would just about put any .22LR angst I have to bed.  I am spending my firearm hobby money on another non firearm hobby until the dust settles.  This is what the firearm industry should be afraid of, people getting turned off and meandering off to other pursuits.  Little regard for demand seems an odd way of looking out for the future of the industry.  Maybe all other facets of the industry are still going full out bringing in all sorts of cash, enough to say, "the heck with .22s."  Can anyone honestly suggest to someone that buying a .22 firearm at this time is a smart move?  Seems to me that a pellet rifle and a 5.56, along with centerfire pistols and maybe a pistol caliber carbine make a lot more sense.   

[JWC]

I can predict the next major run on ammo. Nov 2016. Buy all you can between now and and then and make yourself some Christmas money that year.

[Dennis1209]

Last week for the first time in two years, I was able to walk in to our local Walmart that afternoon and purchase three boxes of CCI .22LR. They have had deliveries for a long time now but the .22LR ammo whores were lined up long before they even brought it to the counter. Way back in the military I swore I'd never stand in a line again! That's mostly held true with the exception of the occasional restaurant. And if it wasn't for the wife, I wouldn't stand in any line.

 

Well Black Friday shoppers, you know where I don't stand now :rofl: