Ammo prices, a new normal?

[Guest TankerHC]

I have been watching all the ammo engines about daily for the last couple of months. Prices aren't changing but now and then, when they do it is only by a penny or two. This is just an observation so don't take it to mean I think ammo went higher after December, started dropping and has now leveled off. I am watching the prices fluctuated pretty wildly there for about a month, leveled off and are no longer dropping, from what I am observing. I know they could all of a sudden drop again, but I am not seeing it.

 

Some examples. 

 

Starting with .22 LR. Even the lowest quality Norma, Federal and Winchester is going .14 to .17 cents per round and has changed little in a couple of months. 

I used to get Aguala and Eley match down in Biloxi for about 60 or 70 bucks for a 500 round brick. I see it running now around .50 cents per round. $30 for a 50 round box some places.

 

30-30 seems to be up about a buck a box and for the higher end like Core Lokt stuff more, $1.15 to $1.25 per round.

 

5.56 has come way down. But even for the cheap stuff I am no longer seeing 5-6 dollar 20 round boxes, everything I see (And have bought, Academy is full of it) is at least 9 bucks a box. Armscor XM193 hit a buck a round during the panic, has come way down, but still almost 12 bucks a box off the shelf and again, has been that way for a couple of months, Tula hit the shelves at Academy en masse and has stayed at 9 something per 20 round box.

 

Anyway, it seems to me ammo HAS leveled off, so do you think we are seeing the new normal for pricing? It may drop, but every time there is a "deal" you go look, most of it is sold out or on backorder. Midway has had buckets o bullets several times now, for $63 plus shipping, but sold out quick. 

 

Which brings me to another point. The individual who approached me in Academy (Twice in a couple of months) to sell .22, pissed me off pretty good. Several of us had lunch the other day and were discussing it, in fact we discussed it for over an hour and I came to a conclusion that is MY conclusion, I don't expect anyone to agree (Or disagree), for me it "just is". 

 

First off, Walmart locally isnt even putting ammo on the shelves. I say that because I have been there at all hours, on every day (Not consecutively) but every day of the week. The same ammo is always on the shelf. Some 12 gauge, some .40, some other calibers but very little of it. Our Walmart is always about empty when it comes to ammo, I don't care what time of day, night or day of the week, the same ammo is sitting there. I have been told by three different people working that counter that It is coming in. It is going somewhere, but it is not going on the shelves. Personally, I have no idea where it is going. But even that isn't a problem since both Academies are packed top to bottom with ammo every time I have gone in there the last couple of months. 

 

Going back to the guy in Academy, the first time I saw the .22 in there it was Automatch. For a 325 round box I paid $22 + tax. I think that comes out to around $25. The first time I ran into the guy he had the same ammo and Academy was sold out, he was asking $35. I was able to get up to Academy almost daily for a couple of weeks going back and forth to the Hospital, so I was able to get my 2 box limit. The last time and since then I haven't seen a round at Academy, or Sportsmans Warehouse. And I know they are getting it and what days, just cant get to it. 

 

So looking at it like this. With tax I paid about 7 cents per round, which is on the low end of what the prices are showing on line, and have been for a while, he had bumped it up to 10 or 11 cents per round. Thats not really THAT MUCH of a jump. And the fact that someone IS going to buy it, and I cant get there, but "I can buy ammo online all day long online", but yes, at prices higher than what the "gougers" are charging. That shipping does add to the cost, many times higher than just taxes.

 

And Ill say don't get me wrong, again, but I am not sympathetic to anyone's plight. People don't get it and I hear "Show some sympathy" quite often, the reason I am not sympathetic is people don't want sympathy, I feel that showing sympathy puts me in a superior position, which I am not (Superior to anyone that is), heck I know I could end up in a negative position just like anyone else, but I am empathetic. And a 65 or 70 year old guy trying to pawn off a box of .22 to make 3 or 4 cents per round at 9:30 at night, there has to be a reason behind it other than trying to get rich off of reselling boxes of .22, which isn't gonna happen anyway. Absolutely there are people gouging, and yes some people got stuck after buying high and thinking they were going to sell higher, but I have changed my opinion generally, I don't think everyone who buys and re-sells is a gouger. Want to see real gouging? Go to the ammo engines and look at what some of our "2A supporters" are selling ammo for. 

 

Just my opinion, which has changed somewhat after looking at it more thoroughly. I still believe that at least at our Walmart, someone is either taking ammo for themselves or selling it off before it hits the shelves, there is no way it is coming in and going on the shelves. It just hasn't been there. But other than .22, it doesn't matter because Sportsmans Warehouse and Academy, everyone I have been in the last couple of months has been packed with everything else. 

 

So a couple of questions I would pose are:

 

Does anyone think that these prices that only seem to be fluctuating a few cents are now "the new normal" or do you expect prices to fall? They would have to fall drastically in a short period to go back on track to what we saw over a year ago. I believe, as with the price of gasoline, we are expected to get used to these prices. 

 

At what price point and conditions does someone go from gouging to "what the market will bear"? If all of it is gouging then I would have to call Lucky Gunner, Alamo, Smokey Mountain and a bunch of others gougers simply because they are selling ammo higher than what I can get it off the shelves and .22 for more than the people selling it after buying it.

 

The reason for the post is it has been a sore topic for a while, not just here but everywhere. And it is only my opinion and I do not expect anyone to agree with me, but for me, I had to sit down and take a look at this logically and see if I actually had a reason to be PO'd, I don't. I was complaining, and a little PO;d, for no real reason. I wouldn't sell ammo for any more than I paid for it, but I don't have to, and for those doing it, maybe there is a reason behind it other than just trying to rip us off and "get rich selling .22 ammo". 

 

 

 

 

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[Hershmeister]

IMHO: Ammo will continuen to be in demand this year with highet than "normal" prices until at least the fall We've seen 223 drop down into the high 30s/low 40s per round last few months, so give it some time - the demand will taper and prices will adjust downwards

[jeff43]

I've noticed the Federal 100 round packs of shotgun shells have really went up too.Close to $29+ tax.

[superduty]

I read an article earlier this week that projected that, since firearms sales are beginning to taper off since a) Obama's reelection, b)Newtown, and c) the big push last year for gun control, that ammunition demand and sales would continue to be very strong through this year, at least-  not only for those who already owned firearms, but also for those new gun owners who decided to purchase firearms recently since all of those events happened.

 

Of course, the new status quo will probably change dramatically if some other tragedy happens, reigniting the fire, or, if the midterms work out in favor of the dems.

 

A $12 box of .223 or $29/100 box of 12ga. may be the least of our concerns if something like that happens.

Edited January 10, 2014 by superduty

[Smith]

It's like gas prices. THey may spike and then go down but they never go back to where they were before the spike. Add to that that raw materials and gas prices continue to rise and the cost of ammo will follow those regardless of the momentary spikes.

 

In short, it won't go back to where it was.

[Jason in TN]

Yes I am thinking the same don't think we will ever see prices back to what they were in the past.

Jason

[rcu316]

This is my thought also. I think it has leveled off also.

[Clod Stomper]

I don't know.  I think there are several factors involved.  First, there is a general unease in the country right now.  If the dems keep control or (Heaven forbid) gain seats in the House or Senate this November, prices definitely won't come down.  They may go up further.  

 

However, if there is a decisive Republican win this fall*, people will again become complacent.  They will start to sell off all the AR parts that they accumulated.  And they will stop compulsively buying ammo.  Maybe even sell some of that too.  That will drop prices.  

 

Second, like someone said above, there are tons of new gun owners.  They want to have ammo for their new guns, too.  Eventually, supply will catch up to demand and prices will start to drop.  Slowly, maybe.  

 

Will

 

*Not saying that they are our friends any more, but that is still the perception.