Dow Jones Industrial Average

[gregintenn]

                        http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

I don't know how many of you guys invest in stocks, but 2013 was a darn good year in the stock market!

[Sam1]

we simply cant have the lowest labor participation rate in decades, higher taxes, the ACA implementation and lower median incomes than years prior and have record high stock levels.  The only reason it is this high is because the people trading don't care where the money comes from as long as it is coming in, and right now they are sucking on the teet of the bond buying fiasco.

 

When you look at the market average, you have to also consider the volume for a complete picture.  Right now we're over 16k and a very low volume which historically that reflects instability.

[Guest TresOsos]

No I think the only reason it is high is because the Federal Reserve has been pumping 85 Billion a month into banks and financial firms.

It has blown a very large bubble, better hope your out when it pops, which it will.

[Erik88]

I had a 19% rate of return on my 401K this year. 2013 was indeed a good year. 

 

That being said, I still think the US is headed towards a financial meltdown. There is no way we can sustain the amount of debt we're taking on.

[gregintenn]

When's it going to happen guys?

 

I've been hearing this for 40 years, and I definitely understand why you are saying this, but I'd sure like to know when.

[Guest TresOsos]

That's the magic question.  But with the Feds doing Quantitive Easing and keeping the funds rate at or near zero, who knows.

Just look at the federal debt and think what would happen if interest (Federal Funds rate) went to a measly 2%.

 

I'm sure there is a lot more wealth to confiscated and money to print before it reaches critical mass.

[gregintenn]

I'm thinking now's a great time to sell, but then what?

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Stock market do seem decoupled from the economy. Doctor says it will kill you but he don't say when.

Gov inflation figures are increasingly cooked downward. Have had a pet theory that the actual market is tracking "real" inflation, or possibly down from real inflation. But I used to think the same about precious metals, and metals are way down at the moment. Showing me holding idiot theories, or alternately the fat lady ain't yet begun to sing.

Dunno what to do with money. Supposedly you make money buy low sell high. Always seemed risky to buy high hoping it will go higher.

I'm getting too old to work steady. Managed to make myself work for a few month after living on savings for a year. Ifn I can make myself work steady for awhile longer and end up with some extra money, might buy some metals if they stay low. Ifn I had enough cash would look for cheap real estate. I just know I ain't buying anything that is currently higher than its average price.

[gregintenn]

I'm thinking real estate as well. I haven't yet sold my wife on the idea so far.

 

I've rode the collector gun schpiel about as far as she'll let me.

Edited January 1, 2014 by gregintenn

[NRA]

I'm thinking now's a great time to sell, but then what?

historically/generally another good year will follow a good year

[Erik88]

When's it going to happen guys?

 

I've been hearing this for 40 years, and I definitely understand why you are saying this, but I'd sure like to know when.

 

Point taken Greg. I don't want to seem like one of the guys with the tin foil hat and you're right, this has been speculated for decades. 

 

Has our debt ever been this large though? Has our credit rating ever been downgraded before?(twice now I think). We already had one great depression, I don't think it's crazy to assume there will be another one. 

[2.ooohhh]

I made great money in the market this year, but the star has been some bitcoins that I bought on a whim to play a game of poker at defcon a few years back. They were around a penny a piece when I got them and I quit counting percentage gain when it got to 5 figures b/c it seemed silly. I'd love to be able to claim that I'm a genius investor who saw the potential and bought in heavily when the currency was in it's infancy but the reality is that I was just a drunk geek at a con who wanted to play some poker with friends, which turned out(through some strange fate) to be a good decision financially.

[gregintenn]

I'm not arguing, Erik. I agree. The future looks bleak. In the meantime, however, I do not see keeping one's money under a mattress to be a good financial plan. I'd sure like to hear some well reasoned suggestions for an alternative investment.

[Erik88]

I'm not arguing, Erik. I agree. The future looks bleak. In the meantime, however, I do not see keeping one's money under a mattress to be a good financial plan. I'd sure like to hear some well reasoned suggestions for an alternative investment.

 

I agree which is why I'm maxing out my 401K(based on what my employer contributes). Also, as soon as I have the funds I'm opening a Roth IRA. 

 

Lastly, if I had the money I would probably spend $100-200 a month buying up silver and gold. Real estate may be an option also. The house I bought sold for over $200K before the bubble. I only paid $137K so I'm hoping to make some money on it in a few years.

 

My GF's dad cashed out his 401K a few years ago and bought gold with the money. From what I could gather it was a smart move since gold shot up to $1,400 an ounce not too long ago.

[thundersnow]

85 billion A MONTH!!!! Not sustainable...

[gregintenn]

              http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/yearlygoldchart.php

Gold has dropped from roughly $1700 per oz to $1200 per oz in 2013. If it goes back to around $800, I may buy some just for speculation.

 

I was happy with my investment decisions in the late 90's and early 2000's. Lately, as I get older, I'm beginning to second guess myself. Also, the numbers are getting larger, so a mistake will be greatly amplified over what it would have been 15-20 years ago.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

the numbers may be bigger but possibly the buying power is not. Last year I sat down with a historical DJ chart and the gubment's inflation calculator, and the buying power of peaks going back to 1980 was flat, actually a little down on the last two peaks (2004-2005 ish, and the already high levels in 2013.

Maybe the current peak shows an inflation adjusted gain, but my paranoid suspicious brain would see that as a danger sign considering the pitiful state of the economy.

Now, analyzing historical troughs would most likely also show an inflation adjusted wash. I should have written a program or spreadsheet to analyze all the years to see if vagarities of the waveform would show some other trend, but maybe such details would be misapplication of analysis, analyzing "random crap".

Since it seems real likely that gubment inflation figures are misunderestimated, then if the market looks flat or down using gubment figgers, then maybe it is REALLY down if we had "accurate" inflation figures. It is difficult to define a metric that would suit everybody, because relative prices continually vary between sectors. One sector can be inflating while another sector is deflating.

So if somebody bought in the troughs and sold at the peaks of the waveform they would have beat inflation. Buying all the way up and down the waveform, perhaps not. So a fella with good timing or insider info could make money.

My pessimistic view is maybe we have been in a prolonged recession or depression since at least 2000, if not 1980 or so.

Look at the stock charts 1930 thru 1950-ish. Stocks would rally and make SOMEBODY money, up and down, up and down over those years, but with an overall downward trend. Each peak didn't quite get as high as the previous peak. Same deal with Japan's long recession. Inflation nowadays just seems to mask the flat or downward trend maybe.

[tnguy]

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
 
I don't know how many of you guys invest in stocks, but 2013 was a darn good year in the stock market!

All that money they're printing has to go somewhere.

[tnguy]

When's it going to happen guys?
 
I've been hearing this for 40 years, and I definitely understand why you are saying this, but I'd sure like to know when.

We're a ways from the meltdown but it's definitely not too far off. I expect Europe to go through it first though. I may even go back there when the shooting stops.

We're way past the point that it's possible to turn back, even if the politicians did suddenly decide to start acting in good faith. I believe we passed that point 5-10 years ago.

[gregintenn]

the numbers may be bigger but possibly the buying power is not. Last year I sat down with a historical DJ chart and the gubment's inflation calculator, and the buying power of peaks going back to 1980 was flat, actually a little down on the last two peaks (2004-2005 ish, and the already high levels in 2013.

Maybe the current peak shows an inflation adjusted gain, but my paranoid suspicious brain would see that as a danger sign considering the pitiful state of the economy.

Now, analyzing historical troughs would most likely also show an inflation adjusted wash. I should have written a program or spreadsheet to analyze all the years to see if vagarities of the waveform would show some other trend, but maybe such details would be misapplication of analysis, analyzing "random crap".

Since it seems real likely that gubment inflation figures are misunderestimated, then if the market looks flat or down using gubment figgers, then maybe it is REALLY down if we had "accurate" inflation figures. It is difficult to define a metric that would suit everybody, because relative prices continually vary between sectors. One sector can be inflating while another sector is deflating.

So if somebody bought in the troughs and sold at the peaks of the waveform they would have beat inflation. Buying all the way up and down the waveform, perhaps not. So a fella with good timing or insider info could make money.

My pessimistic view is maybe we have been in a prolonged recession or depression since at least 2000, if not 1980 or so.

Look at the stock charts 1930 thru 1950-ish. Stocks would rally and make SOMEBODY money, up and down, up and down over those years, but with an overall downward trend. Each peak didn't quite get as high as the previous peak. Same deal with Japan's long recession. Inflation nowadays just seems to mask the flat or downward trend maybe.

So what was the big winner for investors? Certainly not CD's. Not real estate; at least not in Tennessee. Precious metals haven't exactly wowed lately. Where is the right place to invest?

[runco]

Question, if the dollar strengthened, what would the stock market look like?  I am no expert, but I am not aware of problems with gold, even though gold values dropped significantly, which can be a sign of a strong USD.  I think the sequester did more good to the USD gaining strength than many experts would admit to.  Just my mountain hollar view point.

[tnguy]

I'm thinking real estate as well. I haven't yet sold my wife on the idea so far.
 
I've rode the collector gun schpiel about as far as she'll let me.

Real estate is still in a bubble as well. Possibly not as bad as stocks right now. Precious metals? Possibly, they're still a bit bubblish. Bitcoin might be worth a look but make sure you're comfortable with it before you invest. Gun, ammo & durable goods are always #1 but there's only so much you can reasonably put into those.

[gregintenn]

Question, if the dollar strengthened, what would the stock market look like?  I am no expert, but I am not aware of problems with gold, even though gold values dropped significantly, which can be a sign of a strong USD.  I think the sequester did more good to the USD gaining strength than many experts would admit to.  Just my mountain hollar view point.

What would cause the dollar to strengthen?

[gregintenn]

I have a brother in law who thinks 3 bedroom houses are the way to go.

 

I'd like a farm, even thought I'm not a farmer.

[Sam1]

When's it going to happen guys?

 

I've been hearing this for 40 years, and I definitely understand why you are saying this, but I'd sure like to know when.

 

Don't know about any epic "meltdown" but you're going to see the real market worth break through as soon as investors find out when the fed spicket will be turned off.