Handgun carry permits in Tennessee as a percentage of population and percentage of households

[QuietDan]

I looked up the numbers:

 

Tennessee Handgun Carry Permits:  

 

449,419

 

 

Tennessee Households:

 

2,440,663

 

 

Tennessee Population:

 

6,456,243

 

 

 

449,419 divided by 6.456,243 is .06960__ which means nearly 7 percent of the population has an HCP

 

 

449,419 divided by 2,440,663 is .18413__ which means -- perhaps -- more than 18 percent of the households have an HCP

 

 

 

That means almost 7 in 100 individuals have a handgun carry permit and many of them carry.

 

That means 18 out of 100 households -- perhaps --  have a handgun carry permit and many of them carry. You would have to allow for husband and wife both carrying, but that's probably not the main pattern.

 

I would think that if you see a husband and wife out with the family, that there is almost a one in five chance -- almost 20 percent chance!! -- that someone in the family -- perhaps the guy at least -- is carrying.

 

That is really bad odds for a criminal, and doubly bad odds for a merchant. I don't think any business would survive if they ran off one in five families.

 

 

 

I find these numbers surprising, I had no idea it was so many.

[xRUSTYx]

Too much math for an alcohol fueled Christmas evening!!!!!  bookmarked to check out the numbers tomorrow!

[Guest RebelCowboySnB]

Sounds about right if not low. Ga is 10% or 11% an we dont even need one to carry in our cars. Needing it to carry in your car should make the numbers higher but yall have a traning requirement though dont yall? I could see that cutting the numbers in half.

[JayC]

Back out the felon's, mentally adjudicated and minors under 21 and see what it does to those numbers...  If HCP permit holders would vote pro-2nd amendment, there is little we couldn't get passed.

[Worriedman]

Back out the felon's, mentally adjudicated and minors under 21 and see what it does to those numbers...  If HCP permit holders would vote pro-2nd amendment, there is little we couldn't get passed.

If you add in the gun owners who simply have them to hunt and play shooting games with, think of the possibilities?

[runco]

If you see a husband, wife, and 4 kids out and about in a minivan or just leisurely walking by, rest assured there is a family member armed (thats me).

[Guest PapaB]

Here's what your numbers should tell you.

 

Approximately 7 percent of Tennesseans have a carry permit.

 

Each household averages 2.7 people

 

You can't quantify, from those numbers, how many households have a permit holder because you can't determine the percentage of permit holders that are members of a 1 person household.

 

We can tell from those numbers that, if you enter a restaurant containing 99 other people, the odds are good that there will be 7 people with permits. How many are armed can't be determined because not all permit holders carry at all times and some never carry.

[Guest Lowbuster]

Factoring in all those numbers, I wonder if publicized what our crime ratings would be after these numbers were out.

[Jonnin]

I would *BET* that the majority of women who carry, IF they have a boyfriend/husband of any seriousness, the man also carries. 

Many of these households probably include young men who also have a permit or will soon get one -- the 18-25 college kids. 

Household data is defined funny for tax purposes, and is probably all wrong in terms of number of "families" or "homes". 

A number of folks may carry without a permit, and many of those are actually more or less honest (see this more with older folks, 50+) 

 

All in all I would give you a 10% chance of someone near you having a gun in most of TN. 

 

As far as stores go, its a double stupid.  They run off 10% of their most honest customers while inviting robbery. 

[JayC]

You're not taking into account the age of the people...  you walk into your average sitdown restaurant and the vast majority of under 21 will be poorly represented...  So it's likely much higher than 7 out of 100...  probably closer to 12 to 13 out of 100.  That doesn't factor in the lack of felon's and the mentally ill in your restaurant either :)

 

Also, the nicer and higher price your restaurant is, the higher that number goes... because HCP permits are more heavily weighted towards older more affluent residents.  Mostly because of the high cost of getting a permit in TN.

 

And trust me as a business owner I don't want to tick off ~15% of my business, that is the difference between keeping the doors open and going bankrupt.

 

Here's what your numbers should tell you.

 

Approximately 7 percent of Tennesseans have a carry permit.

 

Each household averages 2.7 people

 

You can't quantify, from those numbers, how many households have a permit holder because you can't determine the percentage of permit holders that are members of a 1 person household.

 

We can tell from those numbers that, if you enter a restaurant containing 99 other people, the odds are good that there will be 7 people with permits. How many are armed can't be determined because not all permit holders carry at all times and some never carry.

 

Edited December 26, 2013 by JayC

[Guest TNSovereignty]

Thanks for the stats.  Another population slice that's unaccounted for are those who believe in constitutional carry & shun the infringement that we call a permit, or license.  Maybe a relatively small group of folks ... but they're a passionate group.  

Edited December 26, 2013 by TNSovereignty

[peejman]

It also doesn't account for the number of people who aren't eligible for a permit. Probably not a large number, but could make a difference.

[bersaguy]

I read an article back a couple years ago and wish now I would have saved it and may have on my older computer but it was interesting. It was a statistic that showed the amount of big game hunting licenses that were sold in the state of Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Michigan it showed something like 590,000 sold and in Pennsylvania it was like 780,000 sold in the same year. That is 1,370,000 people that bought a license to hunt big game in just two of the lower 48 states. The report showed that just those two states reflected more owners of High Powered rifles for big game hunting than the number of people in our US Army and that was just in two states. If you begin adding up the other serious big game hunters in the southern states like Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, North & South Carolina, Texas and Louisiana to that number in just two Yankee states I wonder what the numbers would be. I am sure that in most of those stats very few include Black Rifles. I'm sure these stats were made several years back before the big push for the Black rifles became so popular but I thought it was an interesting read at the time..................jmho  It goes to show just how well armed this nation really is IMO. I'm sure that many of those who own a high powered rifle would surely also own at least one hand gun of some type.

[Oh Shoot]

I think all those estimates are too high,myself.

 

1. permits per household is pretty shaky stat, for a variety of reasons, and of course, percentage of total population is too. You really need to know the number of >21 year olds vs permits, and that would give you the most accurate number. That available from last census?

 

2. Is that 449,419 permits simply all permits ever issued? If so, the actual number of current ones would be significantly lower due to deaths, non-renewals, folks moving out of state, etc.

 

3. No accurate statistics,but I'd posit just from what folks say about their carry habits, that half or less of all permit holders are likely to be packing at any given time. Indeed, I'd posit that at least 25% never carry at all on their person.

 

etc.

 

- OS

[bersaguy]

I would imagine that the number of folks that have an HCP are almost always armed if away from home for any reason. I think that for a couple reasons, 1st being I don't think people would pay the money they do for the classes they must go through just to get the HCP.  2nd, I don't think most folks would pay the money out to the state to get the HCP if they don't plan on carrying it in most cases. 3rd is folks have been wanting to be able to legally protect their loved one while out in public for many years and many of them carried before they were ever allowed to have an HCP.  Everyone I know that has an HCP is never not armed when away from home and I know a lot of HCP holders. I for one won't even walk to my post box out at my street without a gun of some kind with me.  I have a very many buddies that both them and their wives never leave the safety of their homes not armed. When we get together and go out to eat we have to be selective where we go because in all cases all of us will have a weapon on our person and that included's wives. Does that sound paranoid? It might to an anti gun person but not to any person that is wanting to know they can protect themselves and their family or friends in the event of an incident......................jmho

[Dane]

[quote name="Runco" post="1084324" timestamp="1388057330"]If you see a husband, wife, and 4 kids out and about in a minivan or just leisurely walking by, rest assured there is a family member armed (thats me).[/quote] Same with my crew of 6 (me,her, and 4 boys). You can bet there just might be 2 armed people in that group! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Titansfan]

Good job on the stats and won't disagree with the 7% of the TN population.  Households maybe close, but would be hard to factor in the husband/wife/ and possibly older children. 

 

I've been working at DCS for 18 years in the field of Juvenile Justice.  When I get a new kid on probation and I feel he/she should be enlightened about the growing number of people legally packing, I use more simplier terms of close to 1 of 10 people and chances are high that someone you pass through the Wal-Mart parking lot or ailse is legally packing.

[Erik88]

 

 

That means almost 7 in 100 individuals have a handgun carry permit and many of them carry.

 

 

I'm going to have to disagree. Very few permit holders actually carry on a regular basis. I'd say 15-20% at most.

[QuietDan]

 

 

2. Is that 449,419 permits simply all permits ever issued? If so, the actual number of current ones would be significantly lower due to deaths, non-renewals, folks moving out of state, etc.

 

 

 

449,419 permits is the current valid HCP permits, from the State of TN HCP website. . . .

Edited December 26, 2013 by QuietDan

[Guest PapaB]

You're not taking into account the age of the people...  you walk into your average sitdown restaurant and the vast majority of under 21 will be poorly represented...  So it's likely much higher than 7 out of 100...  probably closer to 12 to 13 out of 100.  That doesn't factor in the lack of felon's and the mentally ill in your restaurant either :)

 

Also, the nicer and higher price your restaurant is, the higher that number goes... because HCP permits are more heavily weighted towards older more affluent residents.  Mostly because of the high cost of getting a permit in TN.

 

And trust me as a business owner I don't want to tick off ~15% of my business, that is the difference between keeping the doors open and going bankrupt.

 

I am taking into account the age of the people and it does factor in the felon's and the mentally ill. The stat is the percentage of HCP holders to total residents of Tennessee, including all ages and other factors. If 7 percent have a permit then 93 percent do not. That 93 percent includes those that don't qualify for a permit (for any and all reasons) and those that don't need a permit to legally carry.  We're looking at averages here, not specific demographics. While one restaurant may have a higher than average number of people with permits, another is going to have a lower number. That's why it's an average.

[Jonnin]

I'm going to have to disagree. Very few permit holders actually carry on a regular basis. I'd say 15-20% at most.

 

I do not know the % but I agree with this statement.  I know quite a few permit holders who do not carry often, or even at all.   I don't understand the mentality, but one woman I know feels good about having the OPTION to carry someday if the mood strikes her, that alone makes her feel "safer" and gives her a rather expensive peace of mind.  The bulk of them are gifted with psychic powers so they know when trouble will strike and carry on those occasions.

[A.J. Holst]

I had heard or read (but have not verified) that 50%+ of our state senators and congressmen are HCP holders, which if true, should indicate strong unified voice against new, burdensome and encroaching federal firearm law(s) upon the citizens of TN.

 

Gun laws could be the polarizing issue when it comes to states' rights and an oppressive federal guv'mint...why should the senators and congressmen representating large blocks of the urban population in other states have any influence or say-so on how the citizens of the state of TN buy, sell, legislate or carry firearms within the boundries of TN?

[Wyldk2]

I have a permit, and i carry 90% of the time( at least have access to a handgun). The only time I cannot carry is while at work or if i happen to have to go to a "posted" place. I would rather not go to a "posted" place at all but sometimes, i have to go to the post office.

 

Now my father asked me once if he should get his permit before he goes to the range sometime. He seems to think you have to have a permit to go to the range or just have one loaded in the house. There are a lot of people i have talked to ( older people mainly) that seem to think just having a permit on you is enough. Wrong, a permit is just a piece of plastic, if you don't carry then it is useless. You aren't getting the worthiness out of having a permit if you keep forgetting your gun at home.

 

JMHO

[Guest PapaB]

I had heard or read (but have not verified) that 50%+ of our state senators and congressmen are HCP holders, which if true, should indicate strong unified voice against new, burdensome and encroaching federal firearm law(s) upon the citizens of TN.

This would be true if not for the fact that many of them believe what's good for the goose is not good for the gander.