LA Police Gear "Mystery Bag" $9.99 Each

[GlockSpock]

http://www.lapolicegear.com/sos-mystery-bag.html?utm_source=WhatCounts+Publicaster+Edition&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mystery+S.O.S.+Gear+Bag+-+Only+%249.99&utm_content=SHOP+NOW+>>&_ctids=0243%7cQverpg%2fSebz+Rznvy%7c7146%7c348248%7c348203&_ctdigest=MzIAKO5UGuoYJItwqGXa2A

 

They are $9.99, limit of 2 per customer, total of 500 being sold.

 

I bought two. I figured it'd be fun if everyone bought one or two and then posted what you get when it arrives. I guess (if they are actually putting high priced items in there) that 1/250 (or even better considering multiple good prizes) is pretty good odds. It'll be fun!

[musicman]

They probably have 490 hats they need to unload! ;-)

Good luck! Which item are you hoping for?

[GlockSpock]

Well, really just thought it'd be fun to open the box and see what's in it. I could use a hat or two, so as long as it is a good looking hat I won't be disappointed. If I ended up with a light or something, that would be really awesome. That watch looks awesome, and I reckon 1/250 odds of winning it aren't bad compared to most other forms of lottery.

[tnguy]

I'll pass. I have enough hats I never wear. And I got most of them for free too.

[Erik88]

I'd love to but I'm almost positive my credit card info was stolen by shopping at this website and their shipping is generally really high.

[Guest PapaB]

I never knew a hat was a "tactical item". Evidently I have a lot more tactical equipment than I realized.

[Smith]

1/250 odds means there are two bags with something good. They have 500 total, just saying. ;)

[GlockSpock]

1/250 odds means there are two bags with something good. They have 500 total, just saying. ;)

 

If one bag is filled with something good, and someone purchases two bags, what odds do they then have?  :squint:

[GlockSpock]

 

 

What's the potential upside you ask? Well, we have scattered some pretty amazing items throughout these mystery bags, including a Suunto Core Watch ($299 value), several flashlights including the Surefire P2X Fury and Streamlight Protac HL, assorted folding knives & tools from Gerber and SOG, a few Streamlight TLR-1S Weaponlights, and much more. So in short, you have the potential to get over $300 worth of gear, for only $9.99. No risk and huge potential upside!

 

And theoretically the odds are better than 1/250 if you considering any of that having value. Might just end up with a few hats and a few keychains, who knows? I think it will be fun!

[GlockSpock]

I'd love to but I'm almost positive my credit card info was stolen by shopping at this website and their shipping is generally really high.

 

I cannot deny a personal experience, but I've ordered from them before and all went well. In my opinion, it was very likely that someone intercepted your credit card information in transit to the website, and could have happened on any website. Whether this be by a man-in-the-middle attack, keylogger/virus, etc, I doubt it had much to do with being LAPoliceGear's fault. Unless their computers/database was infiltrated, which is also possible.

[cj0e]

If one bag is filled with something good, and someone purchases two bags, what odds do they then have?  :squint:

 

Assuming only one good thing in each bag, and assuming only one watch, and only looking at the odds on the watch, then you'd have a 1:500 chance on the first, and a 1:499 on the second, assuming the first didn't contain the watch.

 

If the first contains the watch, the second would then have a 0:499, for the watch only.

 

For any item, non-hat and non-cheapknife, then your odds go up to 1:125 on the first bag, and 1:124.75 on the second.

 

If the first contains an item of value (one of the 4 pictured!) then odds on the second bag containing an item of value (one of the three remaining items!) at 1:166.3

 

Each bag has it's own statistical chance of "winning", only affected by the number of items available to "win" remaining, and the overall max sample.

 

EDIT:

 

PS: this is all based on my understanding of statistics, from taking one college course on it. So, I could be off a bit.

Edited November 1, 2013 by cj0e

[tnguy]

Double bags=double chances so 2/250 or 1/125.

 

Though there is a chance you'll get two prizes.

Edited November 1, 2013 by tnguy

[cj0e]

Double bags=double chances so 2/250 or 1/125.

 

Though there is a chance you'll get two prizes.

 

Not really though, because the sample size is still 500, reduced to 499 for the second bag (since you reduced it by one, with the first bag) If you lose on the first bag, the second is independent of the first.

[GlockSpock]

I don't see what is so confusing. 500 bags. Lets just conside one bag "the winner". Buy one bag, you have a 1/500 chance of winning. If you buy two, that's one chance of 1/500 winning, and then ANOTHER chance of 1/500 winning (roughly, close enough). Add those together, you have a 1/250 chance of winning.

 

Lets pretend instead you purchased half the bags. Wouldn't most agree you have a 250/500 or 1/2 chance of winning? Purchase 2/500 bags, that's the equivalent of 1/250 chance of winning.

 

Now, lets consider those 5 items from the photo "winners. Assuming each prize goes into  separate bag, that's 5 winners out of 500 bags. The chance that your bag is one of those is 1%, or 1/100. Purchase two bags and your chances are (roughly again) doubled so that you have a 2% chance of winning, or 1/50.

 

The wording suggests that there may be a few Streamlights weapon lights, a few higher end flashlights, a few multitools, and possibly more than that. If they are holding true to what they say, your odds are much better than something like lottery tickets, etc. If you "lose", at least you end up with something.

Edited November 1, 2013 by CZ9MM

[tnguy]

That's if you lose on the first bag.

 

You have to be careful, you can't base your a-propri odds based on having opened the first bag. Your odds change once you have done that. It's like the monty hall problem (but different).

 

The question is a bit badly formed though. If you get two bags, what are your chances of *what*? Winning at least something?

 

Though having constructed a careful argument to refute you, it fails. So I think you are right.

 

Probably the better way to look at it is what are the chances that you will not win *anything*. Then subtract that from 1 for the result.

 

So if there are only two good bags in 500,

 

Chances of first bag being bad, 498/500. Chances of second bag also being bad, 497/499.

 

So your chances of winning something go from 2/500 to something like 3.996/500

[tnguy]

If they are holding true to what they say, your odds are much better than something like lottery tickets, etc. If you "lose", at least you end up with something.

 

 

True. But the lottery is a god-awful way to gamble.

[Smith]

Holy math Batman! What did I start! :surrender:  :up:

[Joseg]

don't matter they are sold out..

[GlockSpock]

don't matter they are sold out..

 

We'll I'll post whatever I get whenever I get it. If anyone else was willing and able to order one, I encourage you you to do the same.

[jhc77]

In for two, I think. Ordered at 7 or so this a.m. and it went through.

[cj0e]

Holy math Batman! What did I start! :surrender:  :up:

Statistics! Madness! Maths! Popcorn! :popcorn:

 

I got mine on order though! Here's to my odds, whatever they are :rofl:

[Erik88]

I cannot deny a personal experience, but I've ordered from them before and all went well. In my opinion, it was very likely that someone intercepted your credit card information in transit to the website, and could have happened on any website. Whether this be by a man-in-the-middle attack, keylogger/virus, etc, I doubt it had much to do with being LAPoliceGear's fault. Unless their computers/database was infiltrated, which is also possible.

 

I didn't say it was their fault, but I'm not the only person that has had the same experience. It's come up before on this forum or another. They may not have the best security on their website but who knows.

[KKing]

Well hell, if I didn't waste all my time taking my shoes off so I could count on my toes for all this math you guys are confusing me with, I may have been able to order one before they sold out. You overachievers ;) Edited November 1, 2013 by KKing

[GlockSpock]

In for two, I think. Ordered at 7 or so this a.m. and it went through.

 

Awesome! Surely one of us will get something worth posting about!

Statistics! Madness! Maths! Popcorn! :popcorn:

 

I got mine on order though! Here's to my odds, whatever they are :rofl:

 

Awesome! Surely one of us will get something worth posting about!

 

I didn't say it was their fault, but I'm not the only person that has had the same experience. It's come up before on this forum or another. They may not have the best security on their website but who knows.

 

Touche'. If more than one of us has had that problem, perhaps it is something lacking on their end. I'll be "that guy" that says I've been ordering things online for about 5 years now and have never had the first issue, thus someday I'll probably be "that guy" who's finances get screwed up because my credit card gets stolen.

Well hell, if I didn't waste all my time taking my shoes off so I could count on my toes for all this math you guys are confusing me with, I may have been able to order one before they sold out. You overachievers ;)

 

It's ok. I'm sure someone here will give you a free hat:)

[WindHawk]

I jumped in about 10:20 and got two bags just for the fun of it.  Even if there's just a hat plus one other 'something" in each bag it should be at least a wash.  It doesn't take a lot to keep me happy!