Narrowly Missed EMP/Solar Flair?

[mikegideon]

Recon this was one of the big boys?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUUCiRAp-hM

[mikegideon]

BTW Lester... Gibb's effect is a factor, 'cause it will increase the peak voltage of the pulse. It will also round it off so classic surge protection has a better chance of grabbing it. It's also the reason I use multiple stages of surge protection in my facilities. Big clamps on all the panels, and local clamps at the gear. You want some series R&X in there somewhere, and the distribution wiring provides some.

[DaveTN]

I guess what I was referring to was the electrons from an EMP being carried through power lines.  Based on what I gathered from the interwebz concerning an event like this it seemed like the consensus from smart talking people was that this would not have any effect on electronics unless they were plugged in on a line that surged.

 

As for an EMP from a nulcear device, who knows?  I guess there are nuclear devices designed specifically for that purpose, but would it really kill all electronics the way described in One Second After?  When was the last time we conducted a nuke test? 

Us? 1992. North Korea, February 12th of this year.

 

I’m pretty sure that in today’s version of one second after, the detonation of a nuclear device close enough to us for an EMP to cause damage would be seen as a nuclear strike. The North Koreans (or whoever did it) probably would not be done patting each other on the back before they were toasted.

 

It’s all about fear and money. But the bottom line is still MAD. (For the Superpowers, NK is not a Superpower)

[TMF]

Us? 1992. North Korea, February 12th of this year.

I’m pretty sure that in today’s version of one second after, the detonation of a nuclear device close enough to us for an EMP to cause damage would be seen as a nuclear strike. The North Koreans (or whoever did it) probably would not be done patting each other on the back before they were toasted.

It’s all about fear and money. But the bottom line is still MAD. (For the Superpowers, NK is not a Superpower)

I get all that, but what I was suggesting is whether or not we really know how a nuke EMP will effect the grid and common electronics devices if we haven't tested it recently? Do we REALLY know or are we just going with worst case scenario that three nukes detonated in the upper atmosphere would kill every electronic device, car and transformer on the east side of the country? I don't know, but based on some of the stuff I've read it seems that isn't true.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Thanks Mike. Am on the phone so can't conveniently quote messages.

That exploding transformer video looks impressive at night. I wouldnt want near that much flaming oil even in the day of course. Maybe some of those buildings were already running on backup generators or whatever, but I didn't notice any lights go out after she blows, and backup gens would at least flicker kicking in. So maybe that wasn't a transformer very big, and it wasn't handling a large area?

If they only want to put protection boxes on 2000 or 3000 transformers, if evenly distributed would only be 40 to 60 transformers per state. Reckon those are mainly the big high voltage transmission line installations? Dunno much about it, though have seen the big installations at power plants and they are impressive enough.

[Paladin132]

I read the 2011 Essential Guide to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack - Reports of the EMP Commission on the Threat and Critical National Infrastructure - The Danger from High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions published by the U.S. Government; Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack; U.S. House of Representatives (2011-01-17). 2011 Essential Guide to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack - Reports of the EMP Commission on the Threat and Critical National Infrastructure - The Danger from High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions (Kindle Locations 2-4). Progressive Management. Kindle Edition. 

 

It claims 11 million casualties due to starvation within the first winter and if I remember right about 10 years to rebuild the nation to a 1960's level of technology. It seemed pretty well sourced and reasoned. Now I am not a physicist or any such thing, but I do know that mother nature sometimes can kick our behind that numerous threat groups in the world are working to utilize EMP against us. Especially as that would be a heck of a sucker punch against a super power who is not prepared for it. For example, the military has been wavered to not purchase equipment that was EMP hardened for a number of years and would be susceptible to such attack. For the minimal cost that it would take to harden ourselves to such an event it seems silly not to - until you realize that groups rarely prepare for something until it has already bit them in the tail once. 

[mikegideon]

http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

 

I couldn't get through much of it before my eyes glazed over. I did read most of chapter 2. Very well written, comprehensive paper. Even they aren't saying that it will kill everything. It will kill some stuff. It will probably kill enough stuff to make for a long recovery. They equated the Katrina blackout to a small EMP event, because it took out communications and all over a large area. That sucked pretty badly, and we had our own fuel supply lines and a whole bunch of generators.

 

I'm going to read the whole thing. There's no Alex Jones in it.

 

BTW... big transformer failure is highly unlikely unless the protection circuits fail. Apparently, they use overcurrent relays on the big boys instead of fuses.

Edited August 7, 2013 by mikegideon

[Dolomite_supafly]

He's leaving a lot of components out of the model. He's just talking about a fast pulse, like lightening. There is no such thing as an infinately fast risetime in most electronic circuits because of stray reactances. Those stray reactances act as low past filters, and round off that sharp edge. Who am I to spoil the canning party. I ain't gonna discuss the fourier transform on TGO :)

Just googled it and came up with this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourier_transform

 

I, for one, am glad you are not trying to discuss it here. On the wiki page it looks like writing I might find on the walls of one of the great pyramids and needless to say I am about as fluent in those calculations on wiki as I am fluent in in reading ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Just googled it and came up with this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourier_transform

 

I, for one, am glad you are not trying to discuss it here. On the wiki page it looks like writing I might find on the walls of one of the great pyramids and needless to say I am about as fluent in those calculations on wiki as I am fluent in in reading ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs.

 

It is a deep topic, not necessarily complicated mathematically, but with deep "connotations" which I don't pretend to good understanding. For instance when people speak of barrel harmonics, that is smack dab in the middle of fourier transform territory. Its everywhere. Tis possible to find on the web, non mathematical explanations which give a gut feel for what is going on. Folk who thrive on math often express formulas which "look more complicated than they really are" but they don't do that just to make it confusing. For instance, if you just write an equation that adds up a bunch of sine waves-- Adding together a bunch of sine waves is a very simple idea but the equation can look hairy if you are not familiar with the math customs and the symbols. Guess its the same way with egyptian hieroglyphics as far as that goes. Maybe a string of ancient pictograms translate to the trivial-- "Remember to get milk and eggs on the way home" or "pharoah picks his nose and eats it" :)

 

The evaluation of how crippled society would become after a solar or nukular EMP-- Got to wondering about individual/sociological factors-- If the irresponsible among us become more irresponsible under pressure, than maybe only mild disturbances to the infrastructure could cause a lot of damage because of too many crazy people doing crazy stuff? On the other hand, human nature might surprise us, and no-count people might buck up under pressure and act surprisingly responsible?

 

In the WWII era there were stories of mobsters joining the military and making fine fighters-- They were crooks but they were not traitors. Maybe that really happened or maybe it was just war propaganda. Dunno. Just sayin, maybe no-count lazy people would act surprisingly good under pressure.

 

But if unusual conditions would cause lots of crazy people wandering around doing crazy stuff, then maybe fairly small infrastructure damage could bring us down? If an EMP fairly long-term knocks out ten percent of automobiles, computers, internet, cable TV-- Is that enough to bring on massive civil disturbance that brings us down worse than the damage?

 

How bad would partial damage have to get before lots of people freak out and cause more problems than the infrastructure damage? Twenty percent? Forty percent? Five percent?

 

Another consideration is our current just-in-time manufacturing and distribution system. How much excess capacity does it have? Is the modern supply chain so "knife edge balanced" that a mere five percent infrastructure loss could lead to starvation?

[mikegideon]

I don't recall ever having to do that math in the real world. I'm not enough of a math geek to abuse myself for no practical reason. It's real helpful to understand it. I have software packages that do the time domain/frequency domain transform on the fly. There's even a fourier function in Excel.

 

They reference the Katrina blackout several times in the paper above, because it really was one of the best real world tests. The entire area was blasted back into the stone age... sorta. Some communications were still up. Some of the grid was still up, at least by the time I got to the area. I waited for over a week, because the roads were blanketed with pine trees... big ones too.

 

I was in South Mississippi. That storm hung together until it got north of Laurel. Social stuff in that area was pretty mild because everybody was armed. The shipped in big city SWAT boys, but they really were needed (comment from one of the SWAT boys). :) Not that there weren't some shots fired. They were just mostly fired in the right direction. :)

 

Since Katrina, the feds have been pushing disaster preparedness. It was a wakeup call. Since that paper was released, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the vulnerability has been mitigated. I know for a fact that the feds are building EMP proof transmitting facilities to support nationwide delivery of disaster information.

 

When it comes down to it, we really don't want anybody popping nukes over US soil. I know... news flash. :)

[DaveTN]

I don’t know, but a few weeks ago a storm took out a power pole by my house. I was without power for 2.5 hours. No TV, No DVR, No on-demand, No internet…. Nothing.

 

Worst 2.5 hours I can remember in a long time.

[mikegideon]

I don’t know, but a few weeks ago a storm took out a power pole by my house. I was without power for 2.5 hours. No TV, No DVR, No on-demand, No internet…. Nothing.

 

Worst 2.5 hours I can remember in a long time.

 

Nah. You didn't even get through your first 10 pack of beenie weenies.