Narrowly Missed EMP/Solar Flair?

[Guest Razz]

I suppose two weeks isn't really that close but it's a measurement I can grasp. Serves as a nice reminder that things can go sideways in an instant. I don't think I'm ready for a disaster of this magnitude, yet...

http://washingtonexaminer.com/massive-solar-flare-narrowly-misses-earth-emp-disaster-barely-avoided/article/2533727

[Randall53]

i can relate to the transformer statement. Power Distribution transformers are huge, very expensive, takes weeks to build and several more weeks to install and test. Even worse than those facts, are a made to order item.

[1pointofview]

If people call 911 cause mcdonalds is out of nuggets, what would an entire population of nugget eaters going to do when you cant have nuggets for weeks?

[TMF]

I saw I good comment on this article which said society is only 9 meals away from breaking down. A good point indeed.

[Guest Razz]

I saw I good comment on this article which said society is only 9 meals away from breaking down. A good point indeed.

This is exactly the conversation my wife and I had, this morning. The fact that our stores have three days of food on the shelves at any given time means a 30 day, nationwide catastrophe would be lethal to most people.

We have the food but I'm not so sure about dealing with the people who don't.

[Garufa]

If people call 911 cause mcdonalds is out of nuggets, what would an entire population of nugget eaters going to do when you cant have nuggets for weeks?

 

They sure won't be calling anyone after an EMP.  Might be worth it just to kill all the phones stuck in everyone's ears.

[Guest Riciticky]

Build a faraday cage and stick some stuff in it

[TMF]

They sure won't be calling anyone after an EMP. Might be worth it just to kill all the phones stuck in everyone's ears.

From what I gathered from other sites on the interwebz, this flare would not have fried most electronics as with a nuclear device designed for such a purpose. Power grid might still be effed though, so it doesn't really matter anyway... people would starve, but at least they'd still have their iPod.

[TMF]

This is exactly the conversation my wife and I had, this morning. The fact that our stores have three days of food on the shelves at any given time means a 30 day, nationwide catastrophe would be lethal to most people.


We have the food but I'm not so sure about dealing with the people who don't.

Folks can go a good while without eating. It isn't fun, but I've done it. Most people have a few weeks of food in their cupboards if they ration appropriately, and once real food runs out people can still make it eating just about anything that is left that one wouldn't normally eat for sustenance alone. It becomes a calorie game at that point. So reasonably, most folks do have enough to see them through the first 30 days.

That's actually the part that is scary for me. Once the regular meals run out, folks are now going through the scraps to make an acceptable caloric intake. That is when the real panic sets in; when they realize they might starve to death, yet they still have enough to give them the strength to look for food elsewhere. That's when they start killing people for a ham sandwich. That's when thugs start banding together to pillage homes, steal what they can carry, rape and murder. No matter how much food you save, that scenario is going to happen. I'm not worried at all about starving to death. I'm worried about the mob killing my family.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Many of the solar flare EMP stories focus on the effect on us, if we happen to be facing the sun when the particle wave front hits the atmosphere and stimulates the EMP cascade.

 

But what if China is facing the sun when the wavefront hits? Not only are they closer to the starvation line, but walmart shelves (and sears shelves, home depot shelves, just about every store's shelves) in the USA will be empty for a long time. Not to mention geopolitical effects of a China stirred up like an ant hill.

[TMF]

Many of the solar flare EMP stories focus on the effect on us, if we happen to be facing the sun when the particle wave front hits the atmosphere and stimulates the EMP cascade.

But what if China is facing the sun when the wavefront hits? Not only are they closer to the starvation line, but walmart shelves (and sears shelves, home depot shelves, just about every store's shelves) in the USA will be empty for a long time. Not to mention geopolitical effects of a China stirred up like an ant hill.

Good point. I would say that unless an EMP like that is localized to places like Afghanistan or the continent of Africa, we're all going to feel the pain to some degree. Obviously, if an EMP from a solar flare hits most places in Africa there will be little to no effect.

[mikegideon]

Is an EMP "expert" the same as a global warming "expert"? I want to see some math. Total destruction of the power grid ain't gonna happen. Can an EMP destroy megawatt level power transformers? Maybe, if it has enough energy. Can it melt every component? No. When a power component fails, it turns into something else... a fuse.

 

Not saying a disaster can't happen. Just saying that total destruction isn't possible. Maybe our government is on to something in this case.

 

BTW... power transformers normally fail from external conditions in two different ways. Either the internal voltages get high enough to punch through the insulation in the windings and create a short, or the load on the transformer gets big enough that it overheats and something melts. They're real tough, and are normally surrounded with things that are designed to protect against the two primary causes of failure... fuses and overvoltage protection. A localized lightening hit is a HUGE amount of energy, and the grid survives them all the time.

Edited August 1, 2013 by mikegideon

[TMF]

Is an EMP "expert" the same as a global warming "expert"? I want to see some math. Total destruction of the power grid ain't gonna happen. Can an EMP destroy megawatt level power transformers? Maybe, if it has enough energy. Can it melt every component? No. When a power component fails, it turns into something else... a fuse.

Not saying a disaster can't happen. Just saying that total destruction isn't possible. Maybe our government is on to something in this case.

I'm certainly no expert either, but just going off the aftermath of the Quebec and 1859 event I'd say there is validity there. Even if the grid in some parts of the US gets knocked out for a few weeks that would be catastrophic in terms of civil unrest, especially if the area is so large that the government can't respond fast enough for aid. As bad as Katrina was, that was still a relatively small area. If it was an entire region of the country that had the lights knocked out, it would be very dangerous once folks started to run low on food.

[mikegideon]

I'm certainly no expert either, but just going off the aftermath of the Quebec and 1859 event I'd say there is validity there. Even if the grid in some parts of the US gets knocked out for a few weeks that would be catastrophic in terms of civil unrest, especially if the area is so large that the government can't respond fast enough for aid. As bad as Katrina was, that was still a relatively small area. If it was an entire region of the country that had the lights knocked out, it would be very dangerous once folks started to run low on food.

 

You're probably right. I would have probably shot somebody for a box of fried chicken after 10 days on Beenie Weenies :). Not to mention... there was NO beer. Had to get some brought in from Memphis.

 

I'm saying that long term irreparable damage to the power grid is really far fetched. A LOT of that energy will be dumped to ground via arc gaps and other protection. Fuses will open up. Backups will be deployed, and stuff will be rerouted. Past events are exactly the reason for the protections and backup plans.

 

Again, I'm not saying that a disaster isn't possible. I'm saying it won't be the end.

[JGunner]

This link says there was no carrington-class flare a few weeks ago .... 

 

http://spaceweather.com

 

Who knows, you can't believe anything you read anymore ... no one is accountable for what they print on the interwebz.  (I don't even trust what I'm typing right now).

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Spaceweather.com is usually quite reliable and authoritative.

[Guest Riciticky]

Anyone interested in this subject, just google Tesla. He was much smarter than Edison.

[Jonnin]

we have had massive power outages before and survived.  Sandy comes to mind, as well as the rolling blackouts and brownouts a few years ago, and other such.   People manage ok without power for couple of weeks at the least.   Of all that could happen, mass power outages would be nothing like an actual food shortage or disease or nuke or something drastic.

[TMF]

we have had massive power outages before and survived. Sandy comes to mind, as well as the rolling blackouts and brownouts a few years ago, and other such. People manage ok without power for couple of weeks at the least. Of all that could happen, mass power outages would be nothing like an actual food shortage or disease or nuke or something drastic.

A massive power outage over a widespread area for several weeks is different than what we experience with hurricanes and rolling blackouts. We're talking about an area so large that the government could not provide enough resources fast enough to feed a population who have nothing. 30 days is about the mark I would say where things get real.

As big as Sandy was, the power outages were not so widespread and for so long that people were starving. Hell, I grew up in Florida, so I've been without power for nearly a week at a time following a hurricane. What we're talking about is something that is so widespread and damaging that the gov doesn't have the resources to cover down, with aid and the ability to repair damage. Say what you want about New Orleans, but that still was a small area by comparison and they were able to effect a plan in less than a week. What we're talking about is something very different.

[Guest nra37922]

Read the book 'One second After'.

[mikegideon]

Read the book 'One second After'.

 

Late again.:) There was a thread when the book came out. The book is fiction... like the Ninja Turtles :)

[Wingshooter]

Late again.:) There was a thread when the book came out. The book is fiction... like the Ninja Turtles :)

Ninja Turtles are fiction?

[DaveTN]

Is an EMP "expert" the same as a global warming "expert"? I want to see some math. Total destruction of the power grid ain't gonna happen. Can an EMP destroy megawatt level power transformers? Maybe, if it has enough energy. Can it melt every component? No. When a power component fails, it turns into something else... a fuse.

 

Not saying a disaster can't happen. Just saying that total destruction isn't possible. Maybe our government is on to something in this case.

 

BTW... power transformers normally fail from external conditions in two different ways. Either the internal voltages get high enough to punch through the insulation in the windings and create a short, or the load on the transformer gets big enough that it overheats and something melts. They're real tough, and are normally surrounded with things that are designed to protect against the two primary causes of failure... fuses and overvoltage protection. A localized lightening hit is a HUGE amount of energy, and the grid survives them all the time.

Don’t try to bring facts into this. Either North Korea is going to fry all our electronics or some terrestrial event is going to knock them out. Otherwise all the preppers’ crap they have will go stale, rust or rot.

 

 

I wonder if North Korea will says “oops!” when they think they have knocked out our electronics and those ballistic missile subs start lighting their azzes up.

 

[Guest nra37922]

Carrington Super Flare

 

From August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest flare,which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours. Such a journey normally takes three to four days. This second CME moved so quickly because the first one had cleared the way of the ambient solar wind plasma.

 

On August 29, 1859, aurorae were observed in Sydney, Australia and also as far North as Queensland.Telegraph services were also disrupted.

 

On September 1, 1859, Carrington and Richard Hodgson, another English amateur astronomer, independently made the first observations of a solar flare. Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis which support the observations of Carrington and Balfour Stewart.

 

On September 1–2, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, even over the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.

 

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases shocking telegraph operators. Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.

 

On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported, "Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance." In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the cost of a similar disaster at $2.6 trillion (£1.67tr).

[mikegideon]

Well... 2.6 trillion ain't the end of the world, or Obama would have already made us extinct.