H7N9

[Poor_Dog]

Anybody else follow flu transmission and such. Evidently this beast just made the jump to Taiwan...

 

Mortality rate is fairly high, not sure about the transmission rates. Once it starts in Taiwan they may get a handle on what to expect.

 

This is off Drudge, not sure how much stock to put in it:

http://www.france24.com/en/20130424-taiwan-confirms-first-h7n9-bird-flu-case-outside-china

[zapfbroad]

yeah I read about it this morning, technically it sounds like he got it while in China then just got treatment in Taiwan but apparently it's especially virulent compared to the H1 or H5 with the mammalian strain. given that the temps have been in the 50/60s for highs it may HOPEfully reduce the replication/mutation rates and reduce the risk as the temps transition into 70/80s.

[Slappy]

Well I wont be concerned so as long as its on the other side of the world from us.  I did purchase some N95 face masks for my GHB to utilize if an outbreak or dusty event happened. 

[Poor_Dog]

yeah I read about it this morning, technically it sounds like he got it while in China then just got treatment in Taiwan but apparently it's especially virulent compared to the H1 or H5 with the mammalian strain. given that the temps have been in the 50/60s for highs it may HOPEfully reduce the replication/mutation rates and reduce the risk as the temps transition into 70/80s.

 

Yeah, I think he probably got it wandering around in one of those petri dishes they call open markets.  H5 is next to impossible to catch short of sucking the snot out of a chicken's beak. This one seems a bit more virulent, albeit a bit less mortality. Wouldn't surprise me to find the vector to be a pig.

 

I haven't tracked it much at all, just read the headlines mostly, but am going to start paying attention now that it's reared it's ugly head in Taiwan. Let it break out of there and the proverbial 'SHTF' moment has arrived...

 

I wonder how many confirmed cases have lived without a respirator or were they all vented?

[Dolomite_supafly]

Well I wont be concerned so as long as its on the other side of the world from us.  I did purchase some N95 face masks for my GHB to utilize if an outbreak or dusty event happened. 

Anyone in Taiwan can be standing next to you inside of 24 hours. The world is a much smaller place than it was a century ago. And while on the plane the infected can contaminate other passengers and then they can take the illness onto the next plane to infect countless more. 

 

Unless air traffic was stopped 100% any potential epidemic would be worldwide in a few days if the carrier where on an airplane of any major airline.

 

I have several masks including a high end mask. I honestly have zero intentions of leaving my property if an outbreak occurred. I am in a very rural are and I am 100+ feet from my dead end road as well as 500+ feet from my nearest neighbor. So I can hopefully ensure no one gets close enough to infect me.

[Poor_Dog]

Yeah, IIRC, the 2009 H1N1 went pandemic in about a week and a half after Mexico City shut down but they refused to call it for about 3 more weeks. Fortunately it wasn't virulent in modern nations and that in itself is a bit of misfortune. People soon scoffed at the idea of a pandemic without ever realizing the true nature of the beast.

 

If this one should get out of hand at it's current CFR of 16-20%, it would redefine the definition of pandemic. There again, being a novel pathogen, it could be quickly adapting and re-assorting in to nothing more than sneeze.

 

The thing about a novel virus is that to connect to humans isn't easy, it has to hit a near perfect match. It's like the odds of shuffling a deck of cards and dealing four royal flushes off the top (without cheating unless you include terrorists). Odds are against it happening, but then every night, families all across China and Indonesia snuggle down in their beds with their chickens and the cards are re-shuffled several million times.

[GlockSpock]

http://www.addictinggames.com/strategy-games/pandemic2.jsp

 

I'm selling plane tickets to Madagascar for $10,000. Any takers?

[vontar]

Related to CZ9MM

check out Plague Inc

 on android phones.  very similar.

[zapfbroad]

Plague inc., is addictive

Sent from my SPH-D700 using Tapatalk 2

[Tobashadow]

Plague inc., is addictive

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Very fun and very scary at the same time.

[zapfbroad]

Yup. As soon as I heard about this strain & the one the chinese scientists are trying to engineer my mind went a tumblin down the winning routes of the game.
For reference... only greenland stands a shot of surviving lol

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[Poor_Dog]

Okay, I gotta find this game, any Zombies and such involved?

[vontar]

I think there was a zombie add on, but I never tried it.

[173rdABN]

I freakin hate Greenland....