Talk Me Into McCain

[memphismason]

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama keeps lead over McCain

Voters see Democrat as riskier pick, but rival has negatives of his own

By Mark Murray

Deputy political director

NBC News

updated 1 hour, 21 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - A majority of Americans think Barack Obama is a riskier choice for the presidency, but he maintains a six-point lead over Republican John McCain, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

With slightly more than 100 days until the election, the survey provides a glimpse of the challenges facing both presidential candidates.

For McCain, it comes amid a toxic political climate for Republicans. Just three in 10 respondents approve of President Bush’s job. Only one in seven McCain voters say they’re excited to vote for him. And the percentage of Americans who believe the country is on the right track is at its lowest mark ever in the poll.

For Obama, it’s that a majority think he’s a risky choice for the presidency; that less than half say the Illinois Democrat shares their background and values; and that there are concerns he’s too inexperienced.

“When it comes to mood, the Republicans face very long odds,†says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. “And when it comes to perceptions of Barack Obama, I think the Democrats and Barack Obama have a job to do.â€

After embarking on his highly publicized trip overseas, Obama enjoys a 47-41 percent advantage over McCain, which is unchanged from last month. The survey was conducted of 1,003 registered voters from Friday to Monday, July 18-21, during Obama's overseas trip. It has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

But Obama’s lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix — with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent. However, it’s important to note that the pro-Obama vote (48 percent) and anti-Obama vote (adding up to 42 percent) is consistent with the result from the two-way match up.

“This remains Barack Obama’s election to win,†Hart says. “In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts.â€

Explaining Obama’s overseas trip

That, in large part, explains why Obama is on his overseas tour taking him to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Germany, France and England — and it hints at what he could gain from such a trip.

While Obama enjoys significant advantages over McCain when it comes to likeability, projecting hope and optimism, being compassionate, and improving America’s standing the world, McCain easily bests Obama on who would be a better commander-in-chief, as well as on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency.

What’s more, 55 percent believe that Obama would be the riskier choice for the presidency; just 35 percent say that of McCain.

Indeed, 51 percent of respondents say they are focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be, compared with just 27 percent who say they’re focusing more on McCain. “This election is more about Barack Obama than it is about John McCain,†says Newhouse, the GOP pollster.

But while the election might not be about McCain, he faces some clear disadvantages heading into this election — including what Newhouse calls the “enthusiasm gap.â€

McCain’s disadvantages

According to the poll, 44 percent of Obama voters say they are excited about their candidate, but only 14 percent of McCain voters say that of the Arizona Republican. Forty-two percent say they're satisfied with him, and 43 percent say he’s the lesser of two evils.

In addition, the Republican Party’s brand is in tatters. President Bush’s approval rating is at 30 percent, up two points from last month’s poll. Also, for the 25th consecutive survey, more view the Republican Party negatively (48 percent) than positively (31 percent). By comparison, the Democratic Party has a 43-37 percent positive-negative rating.

Furthermore, just 13 percent in the poll believe that the country is headed in the right direction. That’s the lowest percentage on this question ever in the history of the NBC/Journal poll. In July 1992 — the year that challenger Bill Clinton beat incumbent President George H.W. Bush — 14 percent said the nation was on the right track.

Perhaps more ominous for McCain, by 55-40 percent, voters say they prefer a presidential candidate who will bring greater changes — even if he’s less experienced and tested — to an experienced candidate who would bring fewer changes to existing policies.

“McCain can’t make this election about experience. Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t going to be enough,†Newhouse says, referring to Sen. Hillary Clinton, whom Obama edged for his party’s nomination.

The economy is issue No. 1

Also in the poll, the issue of the economy remains the public’s top concern, and it’s an issue that voters want both McCain and Obama to address with their vice-presidential picks. Respondents overwhelmingly think that McCain needs to find a running mate who’s an expert on the economy.

For Obama, meanwhile, they want him to pick an expert in military or foreign affairs — but a close second is an expert on the economy.

The poll also shows that voters don’t have much confidence in either Obama or McCain to get the country’s economy back on track. Twenty-eight percent say they have confidence in Obama, while 17 percent say that of McCain.

[Guest tcampbell]

I never said McCain didn't have any faults when it comes to the 2nd Admendment, he is just the lesser of 2 evils.

[memphismason]

I never said McCain didn't have any faults when it comes to the 2nd Admendment, he is just the lesser of 2 evils.

Thats is what I am wanting to be explained. I am saying:

Evil Scale

Obama - 50%

McCain - 50%

All I am wanting is Facts to prove than McCain is the Lesser of two evils.

[Guest TNDixieGirl]

Then go researching for them. You can find anything available via Google or any other search. Why does anyone here need to provide that info, or convince you who the best man is? You can find his website, his voting record, his speeches, etc. and then make your decisions.

[Guest David Waldrip]

Assuming the 50% given to each candidate above is correct, then the deciding factor brings us full circle ----- back to the issue of the Supreme Court appointments.

Who do you want sitting on the SCOTUS for the next 30 years -- someone appointed by Obama, or someone appointed by McCain?

For many of us, it comes down to that one question.

[Falcon1]

Obama supports a ban on concealed carry nationally. McCain doesn't.

[Fivestring63]

03/02/2004Firearms Manufacturers Protection bill

S 1805 Y Bill Failed - Senate

(8 - 90)

This was a good thing so I was wondering why this failed so miserably till I looked it up.

This bill also extended the assault weapons ban for another 10 years.

[memphismason]

Then go researching for them. You can find anything available via Google or any other search. Why does anyone here need to provide that info, or convince you who the best man is? You can find his website, his voting record, his speeches, etc. and then make your decisions.

I will refer you to post #6. See Quote Below.

C'mon guys.

I want to see "proof" facts, voting records, that shows me that they are not the same.

Could I tell the difference if I was given two sheets of paper, with no names on it, one with Obama's voting record and the other with McCain's voting record??????

They can say and act however they want just to get the votes of the people, but their voting records on issues speaks volumes.

I just want to be convinced, and in doing this, it might help strengthen the McCain supporters, so they don't have to hold their noses when they vote for him, and it might change a person's mind who is planning on casting a vote for the third party, like myself.

Any type of factual records are acceptable. (not just voting records)

"Why does anyone here need to provide that info, or convince you who the best man is?"

Because I am the typical sheep, who hears the word "CHANGE" and I say to myself, "Self, I really don't like the current state of affairs, and CHANGE sure sounds good. And everyone who says they are voting for McCain say they really don't like him, but he is not as bad as Obama, so they are cast their ballots for him." I am confused now....I would like a CHANGE, but I also like Lesser Evil. hmmmmmmm

Is this a good enough reason for you?

Why the hostility? You you do not want to participate, then don't.

My reasoning (yet again) is I don't believe the "majority" of people who say "McCain is the Lesser of two Evills, actually know what they are saying. A lot of People think "Obama is a Democrat, and Democrats are bad", and that is fine to believe in that, but they truly don't not know why they think that way.

This is just a way to get mind stirring about the issues.

This thread is not different than any onther one on this forum. If you don't like it, or you think it is stupid, then nobody is twisting your arm to make a post or read it.

[memphismason]

Wow!!!!

Here was my test results, and I promise this was the results of my first test.

I Think I need more than 10 questions.

Summary

Agreed OnDisagreed On1. John McCain [details] 4 6 1. Barack Obama [details] 4 6

[Guest TNDixieGirl]

Why the hostility? You you do not want to participate, then don't.

I have no idea where you read hostility in my response, but fact of the matter is, there wasn't any there.

[memphismason]

I just thought of something..

If one of the question would have been on guns.....the scales probably would have tipped towards McCain....maybe.

[Guest TNDixieGirl]

This thread is not different than any onther one on this forum. If you don't like it, or you think it is stupid, then nobody is twisting your arm to make a post or read it.

Dude, you need to seriously chill. Or grow up. Not sure which one at this point. You sure read alot that isn't there.

Could you tell me where I even implied I didn't "like it" or thought it was "stupid"? Ya sound a tad touchy at the moment.

[TGO David]

Thats is what I am wanting to be explained. I am saying:

Evil Scale

Obama - 50%

McCain - 50%

All I am wanting is Facts to prove than McCain is the Lesser of two evils.

Yes but as others have stated, it's not just about what the POTUS is capable of doing as one man... but it's who he is capable of appointing to various high positions (i.e. the Supreme Court) and what havoc they are capable of causing.

In my opinion, a McCain White House is far more likely to appoint Justices with more Conservative leanings. By contrast, an Obama White House is just as likely to go the opposite direction and appoint Justices with extremely Liberal leanings.

Obama scares the hell out of me. Not just because of the damage he's going to do to this country in and of himself, but because of the damage he will cause through his Appointments.

[TGO David]

This thread is not different than any onther one on this forum. If you don't like it, or you think it is stupid, then nobody is twisting your arm to make a post or read it.

Dude, you need to seriously chill. Or grow up. Not sure which one at this point. You sure read alot that isn't there.

Could you tell me where I even implied I didn't "like it" or thought it was "stupid"? Ya sound a tad touchy at the moment.

Hey Dixie... it'd be awesome if you would use the quote feature to actually link back to the posts where these things were being said. It's kind of hard to follow who you're quoting.

Thanks, and back to our regularly scheduled tree stumping.

[molonlabetn]

Naturally this is a sensitive topic... but the intent (I think) was to create an exercise in validating our own choices. It is worthwhile, I think, because even though we mostly agree on here who is the more positive candidate for the 2nd Amendment... we should be able to articulate that to people we meet who really have been hypnotized by Obama. So, let's try to keep this more in the spirit of learning from each other.

For one... I personally feel that Obama would be very bad for this country, moreso than McCain... but my only tangible reason for the decision to vote against Obama in the most effective manner available to me, is for the reason already stated... namely the 2-3 SCOTUS seats which will come up for appointment.

We need those, regardless of the other agreements or disagreements. The next President is poised to make or break what America is, even though both certainly could destroy us... at least one of them hasn't made that their goal, in essence.

[Guest GLOCKGUY]

Yes but as others have stated, it's not just about what the POTUS is capable of doing as one man... but it's who he is capable of appointing to various high positions (i.e. the Supreme Court) and what havoc they are capable of causing.

In my opinion, a McCain White House is far more likely to appoint Justices with more Conservative leanings. By contrast, an Obama White House is just as likely to go the opposite direction and appoint Justices with extremely Liberal leanings.

Obama scares the hell out of me. Not just because of the damage he's going to do to this country in and of himself, but because of the damage he will cause through his Appointments.

i agree. Yes we can vote Obama out in four years and im sure we will just like they did Jimmy Carter when sucked as president. But we are stuck with who Obama Appoints to the Supreme Court for along time

[Guest jth_3s]

I believe this might be the test you were looking for...

http://www.votechooser.com/

Looks Like Obama shares more of my views. Im still voting for Bob Barr

[Guest TNDixieGirl]

Mine was 6 and 4 favoring McCain. It was 3 and 7 with Obama.

[TGO David]

Looks Like Obama shares more of my views. Im still voting for Bob Barr

I'd be curious to know which things you and Obama agreed on. He and I only agreed on two: That invading Iraq was a mistake and that Government spending should decrease. And I'd bet you a beer that we may have agreed at face value but our reasons for feeling that way on those two issues are drastically different.

McCain and I agreed on 4 points and disagreed on 6. You can see my results in the attached PDF file.

[Guest GUTTERbOY]

Something I haven't seen is any real in-depth discussion on the SCOTUS subject. I do believe that appointees of McCain would be more likely to be good for us than appointees of Obama. But those appointees are only 'good' or 'bad' in terms of who they replace.

For example, of Scalia were to retire, and be replaced by a clone, the net change for us would be neutral. If Stevens retires and is replaced by a clone, we get the same result. So the real desired result is to replace the people we don't like with the people we do like.

So the thing that comes to mind for me is this: Who is most likely to retire or kick the bucket over the next four years? If we base it on age alone, Stevens is far and away at the top of the list, followed by Ginsburg, Scalia, and Kennedy. Let's also assume that justices will go out of their way to avoid retirement until there's an administration in office that will appoint someone with similar views. It seems that I recall reading that Stevens has been delaying his retirement in this fashion.

Now, obviously this is a gross oversimplification of a complex matter, but it seems to indicate to me that the most likely folks to retire under Obama would be Stevens and maybe Ginsburg. If so, the worst likely case is that they'd be replaced by someone just as bad. It's not a win, but it's not a loss either.

Anyway, the reason I took the time to hash all that out is that I think the statements of fright over the prospect of Obama nominating SCOTUS justices and screwing us all are a bit overwrought, especially when you consider that appointments are not unilateral, but must also pass confirmation in the Senate.

Finally, keep in mind that out of the four dissenting justices in Heller, two of them were nominated by Republican administrations. A Republican White House is no gaurantee of a favorable nomination.

In summary, I see the potential for SCOTUS nominations this way: McCain would almost certainly improve the situation if any shuffling goes on under him. Obama would possibly make things worse, but more likely just end up prolonging the status quo.

So while the SCOTUS argument is certainly a valid one- in fact, it's the straw that will drive me to hold my nose and vote for McCain in the fall- I think the dire predictions of an Obama administration are a bit overdone.

[Oh Shoot]

Something I haven't seen is any real in-depth discussion on the SCOTUS subject. ...

All good points, GB.

Also, something else I've not seen mentioned is that for the next 4 and probably 8 years, both the House and Senate will be overwhelmingly Democratic. So it's not likely a Republican prez is gonna get much in the way of his primary choice of SCOTUS justice in there anyway.

- OS

Edited July 24, 2008 by OhShoot

[Garufa]

All good points, GB.

Also, something else I've not seen mentioned is that for the next 4 and probably 8 years, both the House and Senate will be overwhelmingly Democratic. So it's not likely a Republican prez is gonna get much in the way of his primary choice of SCOTUS justice in there anyway.

- OS

Excellent point. The Dems will make tremendous gains this fall in the House and Senate. Most people are really fed up with the way the Repubs have completely screwed this country and over the last 8 years. This frustration will show again at the polls this fall.

Knowing this it helps me lean toward McCain, although it's gonna be hard to do. The worst thing possible is to have both the Executive and Legislative branch controlled by the same party. The results are catastrophic.

[Guest GUTTERbOY]

Excellent point. The Dems will make tremendous gains this fall in the House and Senate. Most people are really fed up with the way the Repubs have completely screwed this country and over the last 8 years. This frustration will show again at the polls this fall.

This prospect is far worse from our standpoint than the prospect of Obama on Pennsylvania Avenue. The President may be important, but he really as limited influence on the actual passing of laws. The folks in Congress are the ones we really need to worry about.

And this is why forums like TGO are so important. We've already seen gun control fade in popularity as a campaign platform, and we need to capitalize on that and continue to voice our opinions, motivate the fence-sitters, and in general make it widely known that supporting gun control is political suicide. Getting the right person in office is a victory, but the real battle is still fought in our homes and workplaces. When we can turn public opinion in our favor and make 2A rights a truly nonpartisan issue, then we will have a true victory.

[Garufa]

We've already seen gun control fade in popularity as a campaign platform, and we need to capitalize on that and continue to voice our opinions, motivate the fence-sitters, and in general make it widely known that supporting gun control is political suicide. /quote]

You are quite correct. Taking a stance on Gun Control at a national level is political suicide, execpt perhaps in Northern and far-Western metropolises where rights are not respected anyway. These areas have been subjected to Draconion gun laws for years with no tangible results or proof that the peolple are any safer and that's the way these people are raised - that's the scary thing.

The latest SCOTUS ruling in the Heller case has truly illustrated to me the division of this country and the fact that a CONSTITUTIONAL amendment ratified in 1791 could be reinterpreted by 4 people in such a manner (or clearly interpreted by 5) . Obviously there are 5 judges who have some knowledge of history and the precise reason we have this protection.

If I were stictly concerned with owning a gun and nothing else a vote for McCain would be easy. Unfortunatly, there are greater issues (Economy, Environment, etc.) You can't shoot your guns if you can't breath or afford to drive to the range, right?

If there is a chance that at least 1 SCOTUS judge needs replacement in the next 4 years then McCain is the winner -if he can get the appointment confirmed.

I try to spread the love everyday (of guns) although I must be careful of who I'm preaching to.

I'm at the point of rambling here so here's what I know: There are 300 million people in this county. Probably 100 million of those own at least one gun. They're not coming to take'm away - no matter who wins.

Edited July 24, 2008 by Garufa

[Guest GLOCKGUY]

We've already seen gun control fade in popularity as a campaign platform, and we need to capitalize on that and continue to voice our opinions, motivate the fence-sitters, and in general make it widely known that supporting gun control is political suicide. quote]

You are quite correct. Taking a stance on Gun Control at a national level is political suicide, execpt perhaps in Northern and far-Western metropolises where rights are not respected anyway. These areas have been subjected to Draconion gun laws for years with no tangible results or proof that the peolple are any safer and that's the way these people are raised - that's the scary thing.

The latest SCOTUS ruling in the Heller case has truly illustrated to me the division of this country and the fact that a CONSTITUTIONAL amendment ratified in 1791 could be reinterpreted by 4 people in such a manner (or clearly interpreted by 5) . Obviously there are 5 judges who have some knowledge of history and the precise reason we have this protection.

If I were stictly concerned with owning a gun and nothing else a vote for McCain would be easy. Unfortunatly, there are greater issues (Economy, Environment, etc.) You can't shoot your guns if you can't breath or afford to drive to the range, right?

If there is a chance that at least 1 SCOTUS judge needs replacement in the next 4 years then McCain is the winner -if he can get the appointment confirmed.

I try to spread the love everyday (of guns) although I must be careful of who I'm preaching to.

I'm at the point of rambling here so here's what I know: There are 300 million people in this county. Probably 100 million of those own at least one gun. They're not coming to take'm away - no matter who wins.

Do you really think Obama can run this country.