just realized something

[reed1285]

I was thinking about all this ammo craziness going on right now, and it made me realize something. Now you guys correct me if im wrong. 

 

We all know the major ammo retailers (walmart, sportsmans warehouse, academy, cabela's, bass pro, all the major online retailers, etc.) have put limitations on the amount of ammo you can buy. As far I know academy is the worst, allowing only one box per caliber per day. But anyway, by putting these limitations in effect, did they create another ammo panic in the future? It seems that way to me, cause once all the ammo restrictions are lifted (which may be months away) all the ammo hoarders will be able to buy up all the ammo they want, creating another panic and shortage. So if this happens we are looking at at least a year when/if ammo ever gets to be readily available again. Guessing of course.

 

I recently just got heavy into this hobby, around 2010. So I wasnt really looking around for stuff when the 08-09 panic hit. Did the above happen then? Did they limit ammo like they are doing now, and when they lifted the limits it started all over? Also, does this panic differ a lot from the 08-09 one? And when did the market stabilize afterwards? 

[Guest TN.Frank]

Panic buying is a major reason why it's gotten hard to find ammo, primers, powder or anything ammo related. Best thing you can do is learn how to reload your own then save your brass. It's not only cheaper but as long as you police up your brass and have bullets, primers and powder on hand you'll always have ammo.
You can even go a step further and learn to cast your own bullets and save even more. Of course with the ammo shortage it seems like many folks are starting to handload so primers, powder and bullets are starting to become harder to find and in the case of primers the price is up by 50% over what they were just a few months ago.
Best advice is to look for deals then stock up when you find them if you can.

[Earl33]

I dont remember the 08 panic being this bad.. Im not sure hoarding is the issue. I feel it's been an opportunity for some to make money at others expense.  As long as people are willing to spend 75.00 for a 20.00 box of 22 lr then it will continue to happen. People are standing in line at retailers as they unload the trucks to make money not because they want a closet full of ammo..  

[Guest TN.Frank]

I have to agree with Earl33, we are our own worse enemy sometimes. I see folks on GOC selling things at highly inflated prices ripping off their fellow gun owners and it just makes me sick.
I know folks are always looking to make a profit if they can but for God Sake, when folks start asking $400 for a dang Kel-Tec of $650 for a Glock then things have really gotten out of hand.
I picked up 1000 CCI small pistol primers at a local pawnshop for $32 bucks in early Jan., today they're out of stock and can't keep em' in, no idea what they're getting but most places are asking $46/1000 which is more then a 50% mark up for the same dang primer simply because they're "hard to get".
I think a lot of people are hording stuff with hopes that laws ARE passed banning stuff so they can clean up when they sell it. I really don't see any new laws being passed and I hope these folks have to sell at a loss, it'll serve them right for trying to rip people off.

[Dolomite_supafly]

Things got short for 4-6 months in 2008 then things started showing up. The shortage was not as widespread and all ammo was still available for the most part. If the shelf was bare of a particular caliber then come back in a few days and it would be on the shelf, except 380 for some reason. You would never go weeks or months without seeing any caliber on the shelf. I could almost always find primers at retailers. I could also find 22lr but it might take a couple of trips to the store to get some.

 

In 2008 ammo was available but there were a lot more fear mongers then than there is now. The reason is there wasn't really a shortage but those who were gouging were using fear tactics to increase pricing. I seen sellers selling CCI Stingers for $27 a box stating that ammo made after June of 2009 would expire in 6 months and his were pre June.

 

I think this shortage is because a lot of people are seeing the writing on the wall and are stocking up. Prepping has become mainstream so all those are also buying ammo. Another big reason there is a shortage is because there have been 65 million gun purchases since 2008 and all those people are buying ammo too. And finally I think the recent government contracts are causing a shortage of components. I do not believe those who are buying to sell for a profit are causing this at all.

 

In 2008 there wasn't really a long term shortage, just fear mongering. Today there is a real shortage but I believe the shortage it is a lot farther up the food chain.

[Guest KCampbell]

I dont remember the 08 panic being this bad.. Im not sure hoarding is the issue. I feel it's been an opportunity for some to make money at others expense.  As long as people are willing to spend 75.00 for a 20.00 box of 22 lr then it will continue to happen. People are standing in line at retailers as they unload the trucks to make money not because they want a closet full of ammo..  

I agree,I went to Academy in Knoxville on Easter Sunday morning. I got there just before 9 and there was all ready a line which I expected.I then noticed the Easter hours sign on the door that said they opened at 12:00!When I brought this to some other folks attention in line several of us left but at least 1/4 of the line stayed there presumably for the 1 box per caliber limit!A few said they had been there since 7 am.My gut says this portion of that line were resellers. I don't know anyone who would be willing to wait 5 hours unless there was a heavy profit in it or they were terribly unprepared.Jmo

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

[221 Fireball]

I dont remember the 08 panic being this bad.. Im not sure hoarding is the issue. I feel it's been an opportunity for some to make money at others expense.  As long as people are willing to spend 75.00 for a 20.00 box of 22 lr then it will continue to happen. People are standing in line at retailers as they unload the trucks to make money not because they want a closet full of ammo..  

 

Totally agree ... WE need to just say NO to overpriced ammo. And we need to start here. One only has to look at our own TGO classifieds to see the profit making going on with ammo. It has caused an artificial shortage in my opinion. If WE would just suck it up and do without for a few months, I believe the gougers would go away. Everyone has some stash for SHTF stuff, but to keep buying at ridiculous prices makes no sense. If you're a target shooter, shoot up some of your old stuff or grab a pole and go fishing instead for a couple months and wait. I mean, how fun would target shooting be if you're burning $1 a round .223 or plinking .22s at 15-20 cents a shot!?  Here's an interesting video on the subject and I believe has merit...    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjVqZ_--0Cs

[Earl33]

You can surf the web and see that ammo is available.. But look at the asking price.. Ammo can of Federal green tip at Walmart is still 180.00 for 400 and something rounds ( I wanna say its .40 something a round ). Go online and look at what sites are selling the same can of ammo for..  Again there is a lot out there to be had but I aint paying .80-1.00 a round for it.. 

 

People are scared, I agree.. Nothing is safe when Congress is in session.. 

[reed1285]

So we agree that there will be another shortage when they lift the limitations?

Even in my short time in the hobby I never thought I would see 22 rounds at $.20-$.25 per round. Or 223 being a dollar per around. Much less that there was so many people willing to pay that price. Edited April 3, 2013 by reed1285

[bikertrash2001]

It's pretty sad when I can shoot my reloaded 9mm cheaper than buying 22.

[Guest TN.Frank]

Removed so the Feds won't kick in my door at 3am to arrest me.LOL Edited April 3, 2013 by TN.Frank

[Jonnin]

I recently sold 700 rounds of my 9x19mm handloads for $25/100. I probably could have gotten $30 or $35 out of them per 100 but why? I'm not in the business of ripping people off and $25/100 more then paid me for my components, time and trouble to load them. WE need to simply refuse to rip people off and ask fair prices for our stuff so that people will buy from us and not have to buy from people that are trying to inflate prices because of greed.
Also, I've gone to air guns for the majority of my plinking. Pellets are dirt cheap, you can get a good quality air rifle or air pistol for pretty reasonable prices and they're quiet enough that you can even set up a range in your garage of back yard.

 

This is not legal unless you have done a lot of paperwork.  At the least, posting it here isnt too wise if you are not approved to make/sell ammo.  If you are certified, you can ignore the friendly warning.

[JAB]

While I largely agree with what Dolomite said, I remember the 08-09 shortage a little differently.  I think I paid closer attention to that shortage than this one because I was much less prepared than I was this time around.

 

In the 08-09 shortage, at first and for several months, it was mostly .380 ammo that was next to impossible to find.  I think that was largely due to the popularity of the LCP and P3AT in a time when a lot of folks - some who had never even owned firearms, before - were buying carry guns.  During that shortage, Cheaper than Dirt had Blazer .380 (aluminum cased, not even Blazer Brass) FMJ priced somewhere around $60 for a box of 50.  That is why many of us would not deal with CTD even after prices returned to 'normal' and will not to this day.  Heck, at Benton Shooters Supply they were splitting up 100 round value packs of Remington UMC .380 ammo and selling them for over $30 for a tray of 50 (about the same price as the entire 100 round pack cost at Walmart, if you could catch them in stock.)

 

Before long, though, my attempts to find reasonably priced 9mm Luger ammo were often fruitless (and not just at Walmart but also at sporting goods/gun stores.)  Eventually, the only handgun ammo that was consistently available at Wally was .32acp and .25 acp - then the .32 started disappearing.  I ended up buying a Phoenix .25 just to have something to shoot.  Before all was said and done, though, even the .25 ammo started drying up (and not just at Walmart but also at several other retailers I checked.)  I also bought a CZ (more appropriately, vz) 82 because 9mm Makarov ammo was still pretty readily available.

 

I have noticed some significant differences this time, however.  One is that during the last shortage, it was mostly certain calibers of handgun ammo that became hard to find (and maybe .223 - I don't know because I don't own anything so chambered.)  Most rifle and shotgun ammo was readily available throughout - even 12 gauge buckshot and slugs.  For whatever reason, I had some difficulty finding .22WMR ammo for a while, toward the end of that shortage but .22LR in the smaller boxes remained mostly available and even bulk packs, while sometimes sporadically available, didn't seem to dry up completely as they have this time.  Also, ammo for various calibers dried up one or two at a time while some (.38 Special, for instance) were at least hit or miss.  This time, everything, rifle, handgun, revolver, rimfire, shotgun - even the bulk packs of 12 gauge field loads at Wally - seems to have disappeared all at once.

 

I do think a lot of this is probably stockpiling/prepping/hoarding but I also think that profiteering is a factor, as well.  I believe that because of the sudden disappearance of less popular ammo right along with the more popular stuff.  For instance, I'm not even seeing much in the way of .410 buckshot or slugs on the shelves these days.  Sure, there isn't as much of that around even during normal times and, sure, guns like the Judge and the Governor have probably increased demand for defensive .410 ammo but honestly, who stockpiles thousands of rounds of .410 buckshot or slugs for personal/emergency use?  To me, that sounds more like 'buy everything and resell at ridiculous prices', to me.  The same goes for .25acp and .32acp supplies having dried up so suddenly and completely.  Yes, I know that ammo manufacturers don't make as much of that ammo but are there really folks hoarding umpteen thousand rounds of .25acp?  It is hard to imagine that being the case - especially as that ammo disappeared right alongside 9mm, etc. and not after other, 'better' options had dried up.

 

So we agree that there will be another shortage when they lift the limitations?

 

Not necessarily.  There were purchase limits put in place last time.  Mostly, I remember Walmart having limits but believe that some, other places did, as well.  IIRC, those limits remained in place until the 'shortage' was well and truly over, shelves were at least almost completely restocked and people were no longer coming in to buy their limit and bringing their friends and family members with them to do the same.  I don't recall the lifting of those limits having any real impact, at all, on the continued availability of ammo.

 

What I do remember is that on the heels of the last shortage, ammo prices went up pretty much across the board.  9mm range ammo went up a dollar or two a box of 50, as did some others, while some things (like .38 Special range ammo) went up as much as three or four dollars for a box of 50 (that was a big part of what finally pushed me to start reloading for .38/.357.)

Edited April 3, 2013 by JAB

[Jonnin]

Its simple enough, you phase out the limits as supply increases.   So say whoever gets 10k boxes of .22 LR bulk in 4 or 5 brands and is now well supplied.  Week 1, they keep the 1 box per person per day etc limitation.  If the supply is still strong, increase it to 2 boxes per day per person.   If the supply remains strong still, try 3 per day.  Still not sold out?  Drop the limit on week 4 to see what happens.  If they fall below 1k boxes, put the limit back on.

Edited April 3, 2013 by Jonnin

[Guest TN.Frank]

This is not legal unless you have done a lot of paperwork. At the least, posting it here isnt too wise if you are not approved to make/sell ammo. If you are certified, you can ignore the friendly warning.

Did a bit of research and according to the law if I'm in the "Business" of loading ammo for a "profit" and obtain a "livelihood" from it then I need a Type 06 FFL to manufacture ammunition for sale to the general public. This ammo was loaded for personal use and not sold at a profit and not done as a business or livelihood so personally, I don't see where I'd need a license. Thanks for the "warning" though. Now please delete my quote from your post please, thanks. Edited April 3, 2013 by TN.Frank

[Mark A]

I'm happy to say I haven't contributed to the ammo shortage one bit. 08 bit me in the rear and I've been making up ground every since. The factory stuff is used for training classes. I stopped buying factory ammo in December.

I will freely admit to doing everything I can to cause a reloading component shortage. I've been buying every chance I can and will continue to do so. If the plan works then in 30 years when I am eighty I'm going to pull my camper over to owl hollow for about 3 weeks. I intend to shoot from open to close every day until I run out...

Wheeeeeeeeeee

[JRWnTN]

I seem to remember the 2008 panic/shortage involved more of folks stocking up.  I remember a couple of guys who bought cases of 9mm.  I guarantee they didn't average shooting a box a year in the past.

 

This time, I think we are seeing more people buying ammo at Wal-Mart etc, then selling it a gun shows and on the internet.  This has made the shortage last a lot longer.