Am I the only one who thinks its calming down?

[Spots]

So slowly, over the last 2-3 weeks I have started to notice prices slowly dropping, and supply slowly catching up. I keep a watch on armslist, and I have noticed that AR's are starting to sit there for a few days, and not selling at double the MSRP like they were. People are still buying, but they are getting pickier and watching their price vs value more. I have also noticed that I can get ammo almost every time I go out now, if I'm willing to do a little driving, and searching and calling. Its not the constant stream of no's it was. I know ammo is still scarce and will be for a couple of months to come, and prices are still high, but I think the worst of it may be over, if nothing crazy happens.

[JoeJ615]

yeah i've been having the same thoughts but didnt wanna say anything and jinx myself .. thanks alot spots ;)

[Jonnin]

I think the guns are starting to catch up.  Ammo, not even close, and if it clears up by the end of the year I will be amazed. 

[maroonandwhite]

I think the guns are starting to catch up.  Ammo, not even close, and if it clears up by the end of the year I will be amazed. 

I am thinking the same. Once we get a definite idea of what is going to happen with the bans it will go one way or the other quickly but I don't think we will get those answers anytime soon.

[austin7.62]

 I think everyone's credit card statements came in and are due soon! The peak prices are gone, but I agree with you guys on the ammo.

[Spots]

 I think everyone's credit card statements came in and are due soon! The peak prices are gone, but I agree with you guys on the ammo.

 

I have had this thought for awhile. I really want to pick up an AR to play with, and I have the feeling that they will be flooding the market very cheap, very soon. Lots of people without disposable income bought a lot of high priced toys on credit

[Guest Razz]

I was thinking the same thing. I'm seeing firearms, parts and ammo on the shelves.

What I'm not seeing:
9mm, .40 or .22LR
Ruger 10/22 (I did see one, last week at a decent price but it got scooped up quick)

[JAB]

I think the guns are starting to catch up.  Ammo, not even close, and if it clears up by the end of the year I will be amazed. 

 

Yeah, the last time there was such an ammo scare - around the time when Barry O was elected the first time - it took more than a year for ammo supplies to get back to what I would consider 'normal' - and when they did, prices were higher than than had been, before.  I'd go so far as to say that this time may be even worse.

 

Last time, .380 ammo disappeared quickly but other calibers were still available.  Then 9mm and .22LR dried up.  Slowly but surely, and at a rate of one or two calibers at a time, ammo disappeared.  .32acp and .25acp hung on much longer with .32 drying up weeks before .25 did.  In fact, I bought a Phoenix .25 just because .25acp was the only ammo that was still plentiful at the time - and then .25 ammo supplies got scarce, too.  Most shotgun ammo - even 12 gauge defensive rounds - remained available.

 

This time, it seemed to pretty much all disappear from the shelves at once - regardless of ammo type, caliber or anything else - and did so quickly enough to make one's head spin.  Also, this time, even shotgun ammo is being snatched up.  At all the Wally locations I have visited, lately even the spots on the shelves where the 12 gauge bulk pack field/target loads belong have been empty. 

 

My guess would be that even if the 'craze' ends soon (and I do hope that the OP is correct in believing it will) it will likely be sometime in the Summer of 2014 before ammo supplies return to something approaching 'normal'.  I also expect prices to be a couple of bucks higher per box by then, too.

 

The availability of the firearms, themselves, probably will improve much more quickly - especially if all the ban talk dies down. 

Edited February 13, 2013 by JAB

[Spots]

I guess I'm not seeing the ammo shortages others are out here? I can almost gurantee to find 7.62, 5.56 or .45 acp everytime I got out if I hit a few stores. A certain local walmart gets orders in every other day or so, a lot of bulk pack stuff, and South Clinton Pawn has had 7.62 on the shelf for 3 weeks, though its high priced. Frontier firearms had a case of Tul 7.62 and a case of norinco with a 5 box limit the other day. Maybe the ammo shortage is just worse in other parts of the state

 

What I mainly noticed was that an AR 15 or a bulk pack of ammo used to sit on Armslist for 2 hours tops. Now they are not being bought quickly, and are being reposted several times with price drops. PEople are slowing down and becoming pickier about prices for ammo, and not over paying for bottom dollar AR's. At least thats my view

[TrickyNicky]

Just from what I'm seeing I think we have two things going on. One is that supply is starting to catch up as the market reaches its saturation point. Two is that I think we're already starting to see people either unload their panic buys or trying to get in on the inflated market while it lasts. Either way I'm glad it's starting to look normal again.

My benchmark for where things are at doesn't lay in the price of guns or ammo but rather the availability and price of magazines. Once I can go into a shop and buy some pmags for $13-$15 with no limit and some bx25 10/22 mags for $24.95 again I'll be a happy camper.

[austin7.62]

I have had this thought for awhile. I really want to pick up an AR to play with, and I have the feeling that they will be flooding the market very cheap, very soon. Lots of people without disposable income bought a lot of high priced toys on credit

Yeah I would just wait a little while and you will find a good deal. The people who paid $3,000 for an AR will be needing to get some of their money back soon.

I remember in 2008, someone I knew bought Bushmaster Ar15s for like $1,500, double what they were then, and a few months after he was trying to sell for like $1,200...No one is going to buy a used Bushmaster AR for 1.2k when new ones can be had for substanially less. Some people will realize that have been foolish with their money and cut their losses, that is where you will find a deal!

[peejman]

I have had this thought for awhile. I really want to pick up an AR to play with, and I have the feeling that they will be flooding the market very cheap, very soon. Lots of people without disposable income bought a lot of high priced toys on credit

 

 

Since when does credit card debt matter to the masses?  If you bought an AR 2 months ago for $1800, would you sell it for $750?  Me neither.

 

I hope you're right but I think it'll be a long time before prices come down, if ever.

[Smith]

Keep in mind the tax season got pushed back a month so we haven't seen the refund checks start hitting. I think we will have another little build before it settles for the long haul. This is just the lull before the 2nd storm. Of course there isn't much out there but it will drag it out a bit longer.

[Guest Razz]

Keep in mind the tax season got pushed back a month so we haven't seen the refund checks start hitting. I think we will have another little build before it settles for the long haul. This is just the lull before the 2nd storm. Of course there isn't much out there but it will drag it out a bit longer.

What? I got my refund last week.

[Spots]

What? I got my refund last week.

 

A lot of people, myself included, got a message saying it would be up to a month before I see my refund due to new laws and regs trying to stop identity theft.

[Poor_Dog]

I think gun prices are easing but seriously doubt they will ever be back at the 'pre-apocalypse' level. Ammo will likely be scarce for some time to come, I'm taking a crash course in reloading from a friend!

[Mdunntn]

people trying to sell takedown 10/22's for over $600

[Joe357]

I agree about gun sales.

Now all we need is some ammo :rant:  

Edited February 13, 2013 by JoeW

[Jesse]

So walmart and places dont have simple 9mm ammo? I havent been out to buy ammo in a while, before sandy hook was the last time.

[Spots]

I have't seen 9mm in awhile. Walmarts have been out of everything but shotgun and 30-06 lately. I have started seeing 7.72 and 5.56 on the shelfs more and more though

[Slappy]

I don't see ammo calming down at all. By the time it should come readily available it will be 2014 and in 2014 are the midterm elections. If we lose our house majority...it won't be pretty.

[superduty]

........... and in 2014 are the midterm elections. If we lose our house majority...it won't be pretty.

 

This worries me way more than anything else that has happened (politically) since the re-election......

[dieewigeteufel]

Calmed down? In my opinion it hasn't even started yet.

[npgunner]

we may see a little decrease in supply while hopefully demand catches up, and think the "panic" buyers will have created a bubble that will pop sometime in the next few months. a few deals on the private market may be seen.  i do worry about what might happen come 2014 if we were to loose control of the House.  I think what we have seen the past few months will be a drop in the bucket of the panic we will see then. 

[TMF]

Guess I need to take down all those "get it before they're banned" ads I have on gunbroker for my Tapco magazines I'm selling for $300 a pop. Really, there are going to be three types of people here in a few months... Those that will should be ashamed for ripping folks off; those who should be ashamed for getting ripped off; and those of us who have been sitting back watching this lunacy that had the decency not to rip anyone off and the sense not to get ripped off.