What are the odds?

[East_TN_Patriot]

In a Facebook debate with one who is unapologetic about her support for the current gun-control efforts, I commented that school shootings are atypical events, which she challenged by saying they are "all too common."  In response, I looked up some data on it.  I found a report published by NPR that references a study conducted by the US Department of Education and the US Secret Service. 

They found:

 

To put the problem of targeted school-based attacks in context, from 1993 to 1997, the odds that a child in grades 9-12 would be threatened or injured with a weapon in school were 7 to 8 percent, or 1 in 13 or 14; the odds of getting into a physical fight at school were 15 percent, or 1 in 7. In contrast, the odds that a child would die in school–by homicide or suicide–are, fortunately, no greater than 1 in 1 million.₁

 

In 2012, a total of 61 people were killed nationwide in mass shootings, and 41were killed in school shootings.₂  Those numbers account for 0.42% and 0.28% of all murders (using 2011 UCR homicide data₃, which is the most current available). 

 

According to 2010 CDC mortality data₄ for kids age 0-15:

1,418 died in car crashes

62 died by accidental shooting

62 died in falls

726 drowned

94 died from poisoning

To put all of this into context, the lifetime odds₅ of dying in a school shooting is 1:1,000,000 in comparison to:
Flu - 1:63

Car crash - 1:84

Accidental poisoning - 1:193

Falls - 1:218

Drowning - 1:1,134

Bicycle crash - 1:4,919

Air/space accident - 1:5,051

Excessive cold - 1:6,045

Heat exposure - 1:13,729

Shark attack - 1:60,453

Lightening - 1:79,746

Fireworks - 1:340,733

 

Another story notes that approximately 150 people are killed annually worldwide by falling coconuts₆, which is almost 3 times the number of people killed in all mass shootings in 2012. 

 

1:111,779 die from legal execution, which means a kid is roughly 9 times more likely to get the death penalty than die in a school shooting₇.

Yet all the while, the tragedy of school shootings is being used as justification of an urgent need to restrict guns "to protect the kids" and any effort to challenge this noble cause is portrayed as lunacy and "fringe" behavior.  Don't take my word for it, the sources are listed below.

Sources:
1. http://stateimpact.npr.org/ohio/2012/02/27/tragic-but-rare-odds-of-dying-in-a-school-shooting-as-in-chardon-at-least-one-in-a-million/ 

2. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0777958.html
3. http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-1

4. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

5. http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/

6. http://www.unisci.com/stories/20022/0523024.htm

7. http://www.nsc.org/news_resources/injury_and_death_statistics/Pages/TheOddsofDyingFrom.aspx

 

 

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Even from the specified period, which was cherry-picked, it wouldn't be near the number they claim. They won't

stoop to lying, will they? rhetorical :D

[hipower]

Was anything ever mentioned again on Obama's comment that in the 33 days since the Newtown shootings that over 900 people had met their deaths at the end of a gun? And I believe that pretty much the way he said it the day of the speech/press conference.

[East_TN_Patriot]

Even from the specified period, which was cherry-picked, it wouldn't be near the number they claim. They won't

stoop to lying, will they? rhetorical :D

I do think the years were cherry-picked because 1993-1997 was really the only point since 1973 when violent crime increased by any significant amount, and much of that was youth violence associated with gang crime.  Regardless, assuming the number is accurate, they are basically saying that statistically speaking, the chances of a child dying in a school shooting is virtually zero.  I know that's little comfort for a parent who has lost a child, but it's hardly any justification for sweeping policy changes when so many more kids are dying from other causes.  Even then, there comes a point of diminishing returns since you simply can't prevent all premature deaths.

[East_TN_Patriot]

Was anything ever mentioned again on Obama's comment that in the 33 days since the Newtown shootings that over 900 people had met their deaths at the end of a gun? And I believe that pretty much the way he said it the day of the speech/press conference.

I made a similar point in one of my classes the other day when the discussion moved to gun control.  I said that 50% of homicide victims in the US are young black men killed in urban violence, but it took the deaths of a few white kids to get the "sympathetic" left to start yelling about gun violence, and even then, their focus was on weapons that account for only around 5% of all gun-related deaths.  Their response is either intentional or a result of their complete ignorance (or maybe both).

[mikegideon]

It's not about school shootings. If you look at their efforts, they're really going for their vision of how to reduce "gun crime" in the big cities. Newtown was a political gift. They know how to stop school shootings. That's just not their goal.