Will panic buying create an AR bubble?

[timcar86]

I was thinking about the amount of ARs being sold in the past month and the reports of suppliers being sold out for up to a year. Is the market flooded? The panic buying was sure to spur people into buying that were on the fence. It definitely wasn't a buyers market. Those looking to buy a gun simply to turn around and sell would have run out of product quickly and if you bought a gun at these outrageous prices you won't be quick to sell once prices come back down. When the assault weapons ban dies in the Senate and production gets back to normal, will prices plummet due to market saturation? I guess what I'm saying is that, odds are, if you wanted a rifle you either had one already or went out and got one if you didn't already own one. Will the market be as hot as it was before the shooting? Edited January 19, 2013 by timcar86

[Chadastrophic]

I think when the market gets back to preCT hysteria we'll see new ARs a couple hundred less than normal.

[runco]

As long as their is a threat in the legislation, Federal or State, I think prices will remain high.  Only after a year that AR15 that is in closet and/or under the bed is just collecting dust, the gun nut wantabes, will begin to flood the market, likely trades for high end pistols, or discounted cash. 

 

BTW My local Wally informed me last night they are expecting 6 AR15s in the coming days/weeks.  I am really warming up with the counter person(s), they have informed me what days they typically receive guns, I know when the UPS truck usually arrives, how long it takes from time of receipt to to actual display, and I am thinking about getting them a Star Bucks card for actual information when one arrives.  I make sure I always talk to the counter person, what a hard and good job they are doing, and we always talk shop or something personal.  Its beginning to work.  Nothing wrong with market intelligence.

[pcrc11]

Almost everything that goes up in price as fast and as high as AR's have in the past month, hence the word bubble, has crashed just as fast, rather it be tech stocks in the nineties, homes a few years ago, oil, gold and so on. The only way any kind of investment or commodity will rise in price and pretty much stay there is by a slow and steady climb. The market has a way of pulling in all the "suckers" on a fast rising bubble only to pull the rug out from underneath them when profits are taken leaving them holding the bag.

[swim615]

I hope so. I am hoping to pick up a few extra when/if it does. I sure can't afford the current prices. POP THE BUBBLE POP THE BUBBLE

 

After all 2 is one 1 is none so I would really like to pick up 3 or 4. You know just for spares

[TripleDigitRide]

The prices will come back down to normal. We've been through his before, and each time you have certain people who will say that the prices will never go back down. They've been wrong every time. I don't think people will start giving them away, but it won't be too much longer before a bunch of people will have to accept the loss on something they couldn't afford to buy in the first place.

[peejman]

Prices will go back down to where they were eventually, but it'll take a while.  The morons who paid 2x more than they should have won't sell for less unless they asbolutely have to.  And retailers have learned just how high of a price the market will bear. 

[KJ48]

You would think after a while the market would get saturated, as long as they keep the political theater going its going to be crazy..

Edited January 19, 2013 by KJ48

[mikegideon]

A lot of folks that are buying right now are the ones that just didn't get around to it before. They waited because they believed AR's would always be available. This isn't just a panic. It's a real threat that could STILL result in a ban. I'm not sure you'll see a big selloff if the threat goes away. It's just too real this time. I also believe that the buying will hold out longer for the same reason. Supply will eventually catch up with demand if a ban fails. But, I think it will be a long time before you have a bunch of folks that think "I can always get one tomorrow".

[mikegideon]

The prices will come back down to normal. We've been through his before, and each time you have certain people who will say that the prices will never go back down. They've been wrong every time. I don't think people will start giving them away, but it won't be too much longer before a bunch of people will have to accept the loss on something they couldn't afford to buy in the first place.

 

I know this one guy that will probably NEVER get caught without an AR again :rofl:

[Moped]

Once we defeat all this crazy talk and the proposed bills in Washington (and we will), then the bubble will burst and you will start to see a lot of them come back on the market at reasonable prices.  There are going to be a lot of people out of a lot of money when this happens.

[gjohnsoniv]

I hope prices come back down to low levels. I would like to build another one.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Depends on when the next nutcase decides to enter a victim disarmament zone and blow away a bunch of people. Any time a couple of nuts do it about the same time prices will spike again.

 

However, if gun control is "beat back" this time on a federal basis and in most states, and assuming that new york can't somehow repeal their latest grotesque gun law, within the year the market will be flooded with AR's and hi-cap mags from new yorkers trying to unload their guns and mags out of state before they enter criminal status. If panic demand doesn't spike due to other factors, a whole state panic-selling used guns and mags ought to drop the price crazy-low for awhile.

[KJ48]

Once we defeat all this crazy talk and the proposed bills in Washington (and we will), then the bubble will burst and you will start to see a lot of them come back on the market at reasonable prices.  There are going to be a lot of people out of a lot of money when this happens.

 

The people who will be out will be the ones that bought high hoping to sell higher, just because the ban scare goes away doesnt mean all the people that bought them are going to sell some.  Some will start shooting them and others will just lock them away until the next ban.  I have friends that are not 'gun people' and never fired one that bought up ARs before the '94 ban and still have them. 

[TripleDigitRide]

I know this one guy that will probably NEVER get caught without an AR again :rofl:

Ain't that the truth. He'll probably sell his first bornn before his AR.

[RichardR]

Unfortunately this could be "the new normal" it is hard to say at this point.

[Metalhead]

If it's anything like 2008, I give it another month. The bubble will burst, some manufacturers that overextended themself will go out of business, some dealers will go out of business, and there will be a whole heck of alot of folks trying to offload their panic bought rifles. The AR market will then be more or less dead for almost a year. The gun industry has been here before.

 

Unless Congress does something stupid.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Metalhead

[Guest Lester Weevils]

If it's anything like 2008, I give it another month. The bubble will burst, some manufacturers that overextended themself will go out of business, some dealers will go out of business, and there will be a whole heck of alot of folks trying to offload their panic bought rifles. The AR market will then be more or less dead for almost a year. The gun industry has been here before.

 

Unless Congress does something stupid.

 

Especially in Western Canada, a great number of individuals and entire provinces refused to cooperate with the Canada long gun registration and eventually the government had to give it up. Maybe we will see a large number of rural redneck new yorkers following the same path, or maybe not.

 

But if most individuals comply, reckon "sell it out of state or lose it" will dump an awesome number of rifles on the market in a rather short time? I guess a NYC guy with a banned item, if he intends to comply, and if he is smart, would dump his banned stuff RIGHT AWAY while national prices are high, and maybe pull a profit on it?

 

But getting toward the deadline, if the price drops, wonder if FFL's of other states could cooperate with FFL's in NY to buy and ship out massive numbers of "assault weapons" at fire-sale prices? There are probably lots of new yorkers that would rather sell to a local FFL and be done with it, rather than mess with gun auction sites?

Edited January 20, 2013 by Lester Weevils

[Trekbike]

Unless Congress does something stupid.

Ha....They've never been known to do that before. Edited January 20, 2013 by Trekbike

[KJ48]

Especially in Western Canada, a great number of individuals and entire provinces refused to cooperate with the Canada long gun registration and eventually the government had to give it up. Maybe we will see a large number of rural redneck new yorkers following the same path, or maybe not.

 

But if most individuals comply, reckon "sell it out of state or lose it" will dump an awesome number of rifles on the market in a rather short time? I guess a NYC guy with a banned item, if he intends to comply, and if he is smart, would dump his banned stuff RIGHT AWAY while national prices are high, and maybe pull a profit on it?

 

But getting toward the deadline, if the price drops, wonder if FFL's of other states could cooperate with FFL's in NY to buy and ship out massive numbers of "assault weapons" at fire-sale prices? There are probably lots of new yorkers that would rather sell to a local FFL and be done with it, rather than mess with gun auction sites?

 

I dont think a lot of New Yorkers will be selling, all they have to do is register them with the state police to keep them.  Pretty sure they are already registered as gun owners.  Pre ban 10+ round mags will become illegal though, may see some of those hit the market but I cant imagine those changing the present price-craziness, magpul could probably produce more mags in a week.  I'm sure some in NY will sell but why would they sell something they will never be able to buy again?

[mav]

If it's anything like 2008, I give it another month. The bubble will burst, some manufacturers that overextended themself will go out of business, some dealers will go out of business, and there will be a whole heck of alot of folks trying to offload their panic bought rifles. The AR market will then be more or less dead for almost a year. The gun industry has been here before.

 

Unless Congress does something stupid.

 

You are exactly right, although I don't know about the month thing.  I predicted late summer/early fall.  If it holds true, there will be some real bargains that come on the market as people start needing some extra money and businesses try to reduce stock levels.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

I dont think a lot of New Yorkers will be selling, all they have to do is register them with the state police to keep them.  Pretty sure they are already registered as gun owners.  Pre ban 10+ round mags will become illegal though, may see some of those hit the market but I cant imagine those changing the present price-craziness, magpul could probably produce more mags in a week.  I'm sure some in NY will sell but why would they sell something they will never be able to buy again?

 

Thanks KJ48. Perusing the law here--

 

http://ypdcrime.com/penal.law/article265.htm#p265.01

 

I can't make heads or tails of it. A shame when we get to the point that one must be a lawyer in order to know how to follow the law, so I'll take your word on it.

 

Text-searching "registered"-- Looks like any mag over 7 rounds must be registered, but then again mags over 7 rounds are illegal, so which is it? Can they register their dangerous 10 rd assault mags and keep them? Or do mags less than 7 rounds also have to be registered?

 

Text-searching "assault weapon" they appear to be verboten, but registration is a defense exception against possession of illegal weapons. I don't see a place where they promise to register "assault weapons" but maybe its in there somewhere.

 

It contains various mind flocks such as--

 

16. The terms "rifle," "shotgun," "pistol," "revolver," and "firearm" as used in paragraphs three, four, five, seven, seven-a, seven-b, nine, nine-a, ten, twelve, thirteen and thirteen-a of this subdivision shall not include a disguised gun or an assault weapon.

 

One place alleges that having more than 1 weapon is prima facia evidence that you intend to commit a crime with them, and that having 5 or more weapons is prima facia evidence that you intend to sell them illegally, though presumably registration is a defense against these evil intentions? Assuming the authorities will allow you to register such a dangerous cache of destructive devices? Too confusing.

 

If it is merely a matter of registration, then perhaps it is more analogous to the Canadian registration fiasco than I thought. Will be interesting to see if Canadians proved themselves more ornery and freedom-loving in civil disobedience than are New Yorkers.

[Sam1]

Sounds like it's the IRS pot tax stamp kinda thing. You have to have a tax stap on marijuana to sell it, but how many people are stopping by the IRS to (register or) buy those stamps? More like a "gotcha" clause than anything else.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Sam1

[KJ48]

Thanks KJ48. Perusing the law here--

 

http://ypdcrime.com/penal.law/article265.htm#p265.01

 

I can't make heads or tails of it. A shame when we get to the point that one must be a lawyer in order to know how to follow the law, so I'll take your word on it.

 

Text-searching "registered"-- Looks like any mag over 7 rounds must be registered, but then again mags over 7 rounds are illegal, so which is it? Can they register their dangerous 10 rd assault mags and keep them? Or do mags less than 7 rounds also have to be registered?

 

Text-searching "assault weapon" they appear to be verboten, but registration is a defense exception against possession of illegal weapons. I don't see a place where they promise to register "assault weapons" but maybe its in there somewhere.

 

It contains various mind flocks such as--

 

 

One place alleges that having more than 1 weapon is prima facia evidence that you intend to commit a crime with them, and that having 5 or more weapons is prima facia evidence that you intend to sell them illegally, though presumably registration is a defense against these evil intentions? Assuming the authorities will allow you to register such a dangerous cache of destructive devices? Too confusing.

 

If it is merely a matter of registration, then perhaps it is more analogous to the Canadian registration fiasco than I thought. Will be interesting to see if Canadians proved themselves more ornery and freedom-loving in civil disobedience than are New Yorkers.

 

This is the summery just on magazines in the new law:

 

Magazines:
Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Devices are redefined in 265.00 (23):
A magazine that has a capacity of more than 10 rounds.
A magazine that contains more than 7 rounds. (Meaning that you can use you pre-2013 ban 8-10 rounders but can only out 7 bullets in them).
A magazine obtained after the effective date of the new legislation that can accept more than 7 rounds.
Exemptions: Curio and Relic magazines and tubular .22 attached magazines.
Curio and Relic mags are mags 50 years old or older, only capable of working in a firearm made 50 years ago.
C&R mag possessors must be registered pursuant to 400.00(16)(a).

265.36 - Magazines manufactured before 9/13/94 that can accept or can be readily converted to accept more than 10 rounds:
These magazines are now illegal.
If you have a "reasonable belief that it was lawful to possess" and you surrender or destroy it within 30 days of being told that it is illegal, you are not guilty of the unlawful possession.
Possession is otherwise a Class A Misdemeanor.

265.37 - Magazines 8-10 rounds that are loaded with more than 7 rounds.
Possession in the home is a violation. Second offense is a Class B Misdemeanor.
Possession outside of the home is a Class B Misdemeanor. Second offense is a Class A Misdemeanor.

 

If you hit the NY section on ar15 they have quite a few discussions on the new laws and exactly what it means.  You have to remember that NY was pretty badly restricted to begin with, now its even worse..

[Moped]

My personal hope is that most gun owners in NY will give their Governor and Government the middle finger salute and refuse to abide by the law.  If enough people stand up to the State Government there, then said Government will most likely back down.  It would cost a whole lot of money for them to incarcerate most or all their gun owners.