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Incredibly logical statistics video.


Guest Mbeck

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Guest RonM0710

Thanks for posting that.  When I took statistics in college the professor said you can make statistics say anything you want them to, which has been the problem.  Each side uses them to say what they want them to say.

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Thanks for posting that.  When I took statistics in college the professor said you can make statistics say anything you want them to, which has been the problem.  Each side uses them to say what they want them to say.

 

That is partially true.  The math says what it says.  The trick comes into the interpretation of what the math says, or which results the researcher chooses to talk about.  Statistical analysis is really an issue of researcher integrity.  If you have significant results that prove your point, you play it up.  If you have results that don't prove your point, you man up and discuss it.  Many researchers only report the former and not the latter, and/or they make some pretty large leaps of logic to spin their results.

I did a project in graduate school using data from the UCR Supplemental Homicide Report to see if there was any difference in gun-related homicides in states with more restrictive gun laws compared to states with less restrictive gun laws (I used the Brady Center's own ranking system for that).  I was also curious to see if it would show that Lott's "more guns less crime" thesis was accurate.  I found no statistically significant relationship at all meaning that gun laws have no real effect either way on gun-related homicide (in retrospect, I should have published that).  My professor, knowing I am pro-gun, said, "I'm sorry the data didn't say what you wanted them to say."  I thought that spoke volumes because I wanted the data to tell me the truth and then I talk about what that means, even if it means - especially if it means - that I am wrong.

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Excellent!  A few VERY telling statistics there.

1)  Violent crime and murder rates in the US are HALF what they were 20 years ago!

2)  The vast majority of violent crime in the US are in cities over 250,000 population, and concentrated in specific neighborhoods.

3)  Violent crime in England and Wales is twice as high as in the US.  But the murder rate is lower.  And also concentrated in specific neighborhoods in cities over 250,000.

4)  Rifles of all varieties account for less than 3% of the firearms used in crimes in the US.  And the AR-15 is only ONE type of rifle among all types that account for that 3%.

 

If that doesn't show that gun control is not about crime, I don't know what will!

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