Virginia at 7pm Might Tell

[Oh Shoot]

VA polls close at 7.

Might well be indicative of the whole shebang.

Certainly if Mitt loses it, likely suggests he loses it all.

If he wins it, get out more popcorn and beer!

Course, realistically, if it's close, might be who knows when before we'll know.

- OS Edited November 6, 2012 by OhShoot

[xRUSTYx]

VA can certainly be a very telling state ....

Hours away from finding out !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Haven't paid as much attention this time as usual, but checking out realclearpolitics.com, the "Make your own map" feature--

[url="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html"]http://www.realclear...ollege_map.html[/url]

And the page here, which looks nearly identical except you can click on column headings to sort by different fields--

[url="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html"]http://www.realclear...ollege_map.html[/url]

Easiest to do with at least one large puter monitor, and two windows, one window holding each of the above pages. If I set all states with + obama polls to "solid obama" and set all states with + romney polls to "solid romney" then obama wins in a landslide. You can do that by clicking the button above the map labeled "no toss ups".

If you sort the tossup states by the RCP average column (in the second link I posted) and start toggling states with the smallest + obama scores to "solid romney"-- Presumably if a poll says obama is up +1 percent, it might be more likely to go romney than a state which is up +10 percent for obama--

Going up from the "theoretically easiest to flip" tossups, Romney needs to flip VA, CO, NH, IA and NV. And he also has to win all the states +romney in the polls, even the ones that are fairly narrow tossups such as FL and NC.

But surprisingly, assuming romney doesn't lose a single one of the +romney states, and he wins the above "theoretically easiest to flip" tossups, he DOES NOT have to win OH or PA.

Still looks like a hard row to hoe for romney if one puts much stock in polls. I don't put much stock in polls but OTOH do not have the foggiest seat of the pants feel for which way it will shake out.

[img]http://www.errnum.com/PoliticalPics/RomneyRCPMap.jpg[/img]

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Someone left out PA and OH on that map. It will be more than 300 electoral votes for Romney.

[Oh Shoot]

Well, the good news: VA too close to even call a leader.

The bad news: VA too close to even call a leader.

- OS

[MattCary]

Close everywhere (so far) is scary.

[Erik88]

Way too close. Obama is currently winning in FL and even NC according to Google and NBC.

I'm nervous.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

It may be tomorrow.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='6.8 AR' timestamp='1352254772' post='840536']
It may be tomorrow.
[/quote]

After midnight probably, but looks like before dawn to me.

My predictions so far right on, but I gave Mitt Wisc, and that ain't looking good either.

- OS Edited November 7, 2012 by OhShoot

[Guest ThePunisher]

If Mitt loses Ohio it's over. He's lost PA.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='ThePunisher' timestamp='1352254931' post='840539']
If Mitt loses Ohio it's over. He's lost PA.
[/quote]

Or NC, or FL, or VA.

There's obviously no Dick Morris beau coup magic gonna happen.

- OS Edited November 7, 2012 by OhShoot

[Erik88]

Fox just gave WI to Obama. Not looking good folks.

[Good_Steward]

It does not look good for Romney. I would like to think that the majority that the republicans have retained in the House will be a majority at getting a sanity check, but it hasn't been provided the last two years. Folks, personal responsibility, and people like me who live by it, are dinosaurs. Helluva lot easier to let the .gov worry about where the groceries are coming from. God help us all.

[Moped]

I think Mitt is going to lose Florida too. He's behind and all that's really left is the Democratic strongholds. And now FOX says he lost NH too. I think the Fat Lady is warming up.

Another thing, the Republicans look like they are going to lose seats in the Senate. The Dims have already turned 2 of them.

The Republican Party better wake up after this election. It's not going to get any easier for them in the future. They cannot keep putting up candidates like Mourdock in Indiana and Akin in Missouri. By 2050 there are going to be more minorities voting than Caucasian and it looks like most of that vote will go to the Democrats. They have to get a handle on the minority vote and that will probably mean they will have to ditch the illegal alien mantra.

If Obama wins tonight (and I think it looks more and more like he will) I hope he loses the popular vote and wins via the electoral college. That would stop the mandate claim. But he probably won't lose that either.

Palin is on FOX and looks a bit shocked. Edited November 7, 2012 by Moped

[Good_Steward]

I have to rant. I can't believe what we have become as Americans where we have someone leading in the presidential polls who extols the virtues of socialized healthcare and our "conservative" alternative who had passed it years ago. When did we as Americans quit fighting? When did we as Americans rely on our neighbors to support us? When did we as Americans decide to let the government tell us what we will and will not do, and bow gracefully (much like our incumbent bows)? When did we as Americans, a Free People, hand over our liberties not with a fight, but with an unheard of enthusiasm?? We have begged the government to relieve us of taking care of our parents and children, to let us not have to worry about tomorrow and better yet, not even think about tomorrow and the consequences? We have become fat, lazy, and complacent. We, all 300 million of us, should be ashamed that we didn't fight tooth and nail for the freedoms that countless Americans died to found and protect! I am very proud of our history, but horrified that it is nothing but history now. I see this country heading directly down the same path as every other nation that has become as dependent on their government as a dope head is his dealer! Edited November 7, 2012 by Good_Steward

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='Good_Steward' timestamp='1352257834' post='840613']
I have to rant. I can't believe what we have become as Americans where we have someone leading in the presidential polls ...[/quote]

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

"We get the government we deserve."

- OS Edited November 7, 2012 by OhShoot

[Good_Steward]

[quote name='Moped' timestamp='1352256929' post='840586']
I think Mitt is going to lose Florida too. He's behind and all that's really left is the Democratic strongholds. And now FOX says he lost NH too. I think the Fat Lady is warming up.

Another thing, the Republicans look like they are going to lose seats in the Senate. The Dims have already turned 2 of them.

The Republican Party better wake up after this election. It's not going to get any easier for them in the future. They cannot keep putting up candidates like Mourdock in Indiana and Akin in Missouri. By 2050 there are going to be more minorities voting than Caucasian and it looks like most of that vote will go to the Democrats. They have to get a handle on the minority vote and that will probably mean they will have to ditch the illegal alien mantra.

If Obama wins tonight (and I think it looks more and more like he will) I hope he loses the popular vote and wins via the electoral college. That would stop the mandate claim. But he probably won't lose that either.

Palin is on FOX and looks a bit shocked.
[/quote]

This is a mandate not for the Repubs, but for a strong, no BS third party candidate. We have pigeon-holed ourselves into believing that there are only 2 viable candidates for the Presidency. There needs to be an immediate course correction in our thinking.

[Good_Steward]

[quote name='OhShoot' timestamp='1352258183' post='840620']
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

"We get the government we deserve."

- OS
[/quote]

OS, that is a painful truth. I guess at least my Tennessee brethren have the common sense to not want to be dragged down that hole with the blue states(at least not as fast). Edited November 7, 2012 by Good_Steward

[Moped]

[quote name='Good_Steward' timestamp='1352258485' post='840626']
This is a mandate not for the Repubs, but for a strong, no BS third party candidate. We have pigeon-holed ourselves into believing that there are only 2 viable candidates for the Presidency. There needs to be an immediate course correction in our thinking.
[/quote]

I agree, with the exception of one thing. That third party has to be able to take votes equally from the Democrats as well. Take for example the Tea Party. IF it breaks away from the Republican Party, then you are effectively handing over just about every election to the Democrats. The only way I see that happening is if the third party is a moderate party.

[Good_Steward]

[quote name='Moped' timestamp='1352259281' post='840647']
I agree, with the exception of one thing. That third party has to be able to take votes equally from the Democrats as well. Take for example the Tea Party. IF it breaks away from the Republican Party, then you are effectively handing over just about every election to the Democrats. The only way I see that happening is if the third party is a moderate party.
[/quote]

We already have a moderate / left party. Unfortunately, It's called "Republicans". Just look at the last two Prez candidates. Heck, take the moderate part out at this point. Edited November 7, 2012 by Good_Steward

[Moped]

I don't think a truly conservative party can win anymore.

[Daniel]

It can't with two parties or even three. Conservatives are the minority.

[GlockSpock]

[quote]Conservatives are the minority.[/quote]

I dont' know if I am convinced of this [i]yet[/i]. Give it a few more elections. However, if it is true, then the sheep have finally decided that they are willing to take down their fences and let the wolves be their shepherds.

[TripleDigitRide]

[quote name='Moped' timestamp='1352259491' post='840655']I don't think a truly conservative party can win anymore.[/quote]

I think you're right. Social issues like gay marriage and abortion are going to be the death of conservatism.

[Moped]

Romney is going to lose Florida and when that happens, it's over. Nothing left there but the Democratic Strongholds.