TGO Prez Poll Results & Last Predictions

[Oh Shoot]

As a refresher, here were the TGO results from the 60 day and 30 day out polls. Remember, these were supposed to be about who you honestly thought [u]will[/u] win, not who you [u]hope[/u] will win (but I'm not sure that's what actually resulted).
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[img]http://routedriver.home.comcast.net/pub/misc/election/60days.gif[/img]


[img]http://routedriver.home.comcast.net/pub/misc/election/30days.gif[/img]

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So the election is down to the wire. Here's a last chance to opine about who's gonna be the next US President.

Not a poll, but rather [size=5][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]let's hear [b][u]WHY[/u][/b] you think so.[/font][/size]
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[b]My prediction: [/b]Obama by a narrow edge 274 to 264 electoral votes, there's better than 50/50 chance Mitt will win the popular votes, and the final tally will look like this:


[img]http://routedriver.home.comcast.net/pub/misc/election/myprediction.gif[/img]
Just doesn't look "fair", does it?
---------------------------------------------

A few reasons as far as this stage in the game:

- As I've said all along, Mitt can't beat the media. The Benghazi thing is latest big example -- the mainstream media has been in protect mode on this since it broke, and even though they are now being forced to start covering it more, it's too late to affect the election. This is beginning very much to remind me of Watergate, which started to stink right before Nixon's reelection.

- The last couple month's worth of economic indices, while still quite dismal, have given BHO just enough to tout "improvement".

- Mitt just isn't the guy. Too many minuses -- it's almost like the entire GOP process ferreted out the only crop of contenders during the primary process who could[i] not[/i] beat this weakened president. I think McCain would be in about the same place at Mitt now had he been selected again, maybe even better, with just a campaign of "I Told You So Four Years Ago".

- BHO's three day media blitz "fixing" Hurricane Sandy, along with Christie's glowing comments, have given him temp warm fuzzies at just the right time, although you can already see it perhaps devolving into a similar critical mess in overall response just like as per Katrina.

- Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. It's all going to come down to Ohio, assuming that Mitt doesn't get surprised in FL, VA, or NC too. Between Mitt's rep on the auto bailout and some pretty damn questionable stuff he's putting out now about auto jobs going to China, Ohio's unemployment rate of "only" 7%, and etc, I think BHO will squeak it out.

- The Dems have the better org to get the vote out on election day.

- Did I mention Ohio?
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Many more reasons, but those will do.

How 'bout y'all. [size=5][b]Why[/b][/size] do you think your man will win?


(btw, if you want to play with the electoral vote thing as per the map above go to: [url="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground"]http://www.cnn.com/E...r#?battleground[/url]

- OS Edited November 2, 2012 by OhShoot

[TripleDigitRide]

I still think Obama will win. The social side of me is hoping I'm right, but the fiscal side of me hopes I'm wrong.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Romney in excess of 300 electoral votes. No bounce for either due to the storm, but Obama's base will be
the majority of turnout for him. Romney is gaining in every state that is still contested and the old Republican
steady voter(myself included) will be voting on Tuesday.

Ohio: Obama has 250,000 less early voters this time and Republicans are up by 30-50,000 voters in this one.
Pennsylvania: tightening up and the same will happen.
Wisconsin: Romney wins
Colorado: will go to Romney
Almost every poll, with the exception of Rassmussen is weighted for Democrats and are skewed too much. Don't
know why.
It may get better than this!

The Republicans ground game is doing just fine. All of the media, except FOX is saying the Dems ground
game is better. Now who's side are they on?

Edited November 2, 2012 by 6.8 AR

[Major Kong]

[quote name='TripleDigitRide' timestamp='1351897954' post='837997']
I still think Obama will win. The social side of me is hoping I'm right, but the fiscal side of me hopes I'm wrong.
[/quote]

What does the Individual Rights and Freedoms side of you hope?

[gregintenn]

I think Ron Paul will squeak out a win with a last minute write in campaign.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='6.8 AR' timestamp='1351898969' post='838009']
....

Ohio: Obama has 250,000 less early voters this time and Republicans are up by 30-50,000 voters in this one.

[/quote]

All credible info I find is that this is not likely true.

That Romney is up overall in early voting, but BHO is ahead in at least 3 swing states, including Ohio.

Ohio is not as easy to track though, since it doesn't register by party, only on choice of last primary, like TN.

- OS

[Erik88]

I'm starting to learn towards Romney at this point. I can't tell if this is me "hoping" or not. I just don't see the BUZZ surrounding Obama like he had 4 years ago.


I also think it will come down to Ohio. Edited November 3, 2012 by Erik88

[JohnC]

Romney will win. Not enough radical left-wingers, socialists or communists in America yet for the Democrats to win this election.

If they keep propagandizing the youth through media and school with leftist crap and socialism, it won't be long until it'll be the United Socialist States of America.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Edited November 3, 2012 by JohnC

[TripleDigitRide]

[quote name='Major Kong' timestamp='1351900735' post='838024']

What does the Individual Rights and Freedoms side of you hope?[/quote]

That we have better options next time around.

[Garufa]

[quote name='TripleDigitRide' timestamp='1351903190' post='838049']
That we have better options next time around.
[/quote]

I first voted in 1988. The choices have not gotten any better.

[Erik88]

[quote name='TripleDigitRide' timestamp='1351903190' post='838049']
That we have better options next time around.
[/quote]

x2. But God forbid we vote for the 3rd party candidate. We get crucified on TGO.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

[quote name='OhShoot' timestamp='1351901664' post='838033']
All credible info I find is that this is not likely true.

That Romney is up overall in early voting, but BHO is ahead in at least 3 swing states, including Ohio.

Ohio is not as easy to track though, since it doesn't register by party, only on choice of last primary, like TN.

- OS
[/quote]Exit polling, Mac.

The other about the 250,000 deficit was state on one I did hear on the radio. I don't know much more than that, but
exit polling and votes cast should be know to the Secy. of State of Ohio.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

[quote name='Erik88' timestamp='1351902314' post='838039']
I'm starting to learn towards Romney at this point. I can't if this is me "hoping" or not. I just don't see the BUZZ surrounding Obama like he had 4 years ago.


I also think it will come down to Ohio.
[/quote]That's the likely scenario everyone is saying, but there are other ways to win it without Ohio. It's all in the
numbers of states electoral votes.

There's way too much drama played up in this race. Obama's support is way down, also.

[Links2k]

[quote name='6.8 AR' timestamp='1351904722' post='838066']

There's way too much drama played up in this race. Obama's support is way down, also.
[/quote]

Waaaaaay down. Edited November 3, 2012 by LINKS2K

[Caster]

I'd LOVE to be wrong, but I still think O will win. Why? Because Amerika is stupid and begs to screw itself.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='6.8 AR' timestamp='1351904544' post='838065']
Exit polling, Mac.

The other about the 250,000 deficit was state on one I did hear on the radio. I don't know much more than that, but
exit polling and votes cast should be know to the Secy. of State of Ohio.
[/quote]

Well, they're guessing from last primary turnout "registration" and exit polling, very sketchy, but whatever, even FOX poll averages this evening show Mitt a point or two behind in Ohio. No single poll shows him even or ahead, and certainly FOX pushes its prime time agenda when it can.

But it's moot about all that. It's close, very close.

- OS

[mav]

I am fairly confident Romney has this one. If by some chance I am wrong and Obama wins, well... this country will have changed too much for the worse and doesn't deserve to make it.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='mav' timestamp='1351905469' post='838082']
I am fairly confident Romney has this one. If by some chance I am wrong and Obama wins, well... this country will have changed too much for the worse and doesn't deserve to make it.
[/quote]

C'mon Mav, and folks, play by my rules, okay? Give some reasons behind your pick. About half are just wishing, just like the previous polls I suspect.

- OS Edited November 3, 2012 by OhShoot

[Glenn]

Romney has to win. I'm too damn old for a civil war

[mav]

[quote name='OhShoot' timestamp='1351905634' post='838085']
C'mon Mav, and folks, play by my rules, okay? Give some reasons behind your pick. About half are just wishing, just like the previous polls I suspect.

- OS
[/quote]

Fine. Why do I think Romney will when? Well, it has nothing to do with any kind of polling or the current info (or the lack thereof) on the news channels. Call me a naive fool, but I still believe that a majority of Americans have not lost their commonsense. Obama has been a 100% total f***up. You guys know from my posts during this election cycle that I am no Republican shill, therefore when I say I can't think of one damn thing Obama has done that I agree with, it is not some b.s. partisan rhetoric.

If I am wrong and Americans have lost their commonsense, virtue, or they have become so complacent in having their lives subsidized by taxpayers, then I honestly believe that America doesn't deserve to make it.

I wish I could say something else Mac, but I really can't. I have no statistical analysis to back up my feeling. Yes, I am aware of all the polling you and AR have mentioned. However, considering how corrupt this administration has been, and how accommodating the media has been towards the administration, I don't put any faith in the polling data.

[Mike.357]

Romney stands no chance.

I don't recall ever voting for a presidential winner. I doubt this year will be different.

And I still wish I could have a do-over so I could vote for someone else guarenteed to lose.

[RobertY]

I really want Romney to win. (even though it leave a bad taste in my mouth)

The Media is really pushing OBama, you can tell by the sound bits and clips that they use. I hate to say it, but if the media keeps leaning for Obama he will take it. Undecideds usually will vote for the face they see more on TV. OBama is really pushing his campain and burying Romney in sheer spot numbers. Taking that into consideration, he has got to have more backing money wise than Romney.

Ohio will be very important. The ladies of that state are slated heavily for OBama.

Romney hurts himslef, he is just not very likeable over the TV.

So my call is OBama (OUCH!!!!!)

But I want Romney (more than OBama)

I sure as heck hope that a 3rd party can get developed enough to be taken seriously in 2016.

[Erik88]

[quote name='mav' timestamp='1351907630' post='838095']
Fine. Why do I think Romney will when? Well, it has nothing to do with any kind of polling or the current info (or the lack thereof) on the news channels. [u][b]Call me a naive fool, but I still believe that a majority of Americans[/b][/u] have not lost their commonsense. Obama has been a 100% total f***up. You guys know from my posts during this election cycle that I am no Republican shill, therefore when I say I can't think of one damn thing Obama has done that I agree with, it is not some b.s. partisan rhetoric.
[/quote]

Mav, hate to say it but Americans were stupid enough to elect him once I have no doubts they will do it again. Hell, we're the country that finds entertainment in watching Jersey Shore...

[Mike.357]

[quote name='6.8 AR' timestamp='1351904544' post='838065']
Exit polling, Mac.


exit polling and votes cast should be know to the Secy. of State of Ohio.
[/quote]

votes cast is not top secret or at least it used to not be. In days gone by when I was younger and very politically active I worked for several election campaigns. One task I always worked to be assigned to was to go from poll to poll and find out how many had voted at selected precints. There was almost always some pushback the first time in the door when I asked how many ballots had been issued. But by law they had to tell me. By doing this the people in charge could better decide where to put their "get out the vote" efforts.

[Oh Shoot]

[quote name='mav' timestamp='1351907630' post='838095']
Fine. Why do I think Romney will when? Well, it has nothing to do with any kind of polling or the current info (or the lack thereof) on the news channels. Call me a naive fool, but I still believe that a majority of Americans have not lost their commonsense. Obama has been a 100% total f***up. You guys know from my posts during this election cycle that I am no Republican shill, therefore when I say I can't think of one damn thing Obama has done that I agree with, it is not some b.s. partisan rhetoric.

If I am wrong and Americans have lost their commonsense, virtue, or they have become so complacent in having their lives subsidized by taxpayers, then I honestly believe that America doesn't deserve to make it.

I wish I could say something else Mac, but I really can't. I have no statistical analysis to back up my feeling. Yes, I am aware of all the polling you and AR have mentioned. However, considering how corrupt this administration has been, and how accommodating the media has been towards the administration, I don't put any faith in the polling data.
[/quote]

Much better.

I can't get around the fact that the media is electing the president this time. It's been four years of covering his azz, and more intense all the time. FoxNews has stood alone in the TV market. If all folks get is network news at 6:30, they get BHO, simple as that, and nobody listens to conservative talk radio unless they already lean that way.

There's a reason Christians mostly come from Christian families and Muslims mostly come from Islamic ones. Four years of indoctrination ain't a lifetime, but it's plenty of time to swing the vote.

- OS