Chattanooga paper endorses Gary Johnson!

[RobertNashville]

As of a couple days ago, Mitt had 45 million in the bank. That's some powerful meadia too, and he owns it. You may be right, but best not count on today's polls. There's more hammering to do, and Romney has a clear financial advantage.

I don't think Romney is raising or spending nearly as much as Obama, Mike and the evidence seems to show that Obama's fundraising over the internet doesn't seem to give a damn about where it's coming from (given that he hasn't turned on any of the controls easily available to him to spot fraudulent / foreign contributions).

Source: http://washingtonexa...05#.UI1JJYYvOX8

[mikegideon]

I had the pleasure of meeting several Tea Party members last night. None of them care for Romney but they are pretty confident he will win the election. The say he will win Florida but are unsure about Ohio.

I'm still not convinced.

I don't know how a Tea Party member would be more qualified than anyone else to give a prediction. An educated guess is the best anybody can do right now. It would be easier if these boys were out of money. They're not. Right now, any "prediction" is really just a guess. This thing is so close that we may not even know on election day. The whole thing could wind up in the lawyers' hands.

[RobertNashville]

I don't know how a Tea Party member would be more qualified than anyone else to give a prediction. An educated guess is the best anybody can do right now. It would be easier if these boys were out of money. They're not. Right now, any "prediction" is really just a guess. This thing is so close that we may not even know on election day. The whole thing could wind up in the lawyers' hands.

Maybe I'm all wet but I don't believe the actual election will be close at all...whoever wins it I expect it will be by 4-8 points of the popular vote and, more importantly, a hefty electoral college margin.

[mikegideon]

I don't think Romney is raising or spending nearly as much as Obama, Mike and the evidence seems to show that Obama's fundraising over the internet doesn't seem to give a damn about where it's coming from (given that he hasn't turned on any of the controls easily available to him to spot fraudulent / foreign contributions).

Source: http://washingtonexa...05#.UI1JJYYvOX8

I got the 45 mil figure from Obama's folks. Doesn't matter what's been raised. What matters at this point is what's left right now. If Romney's folks dump that money in the right places, they can bump the numbers.

[Erik88]

I don't know how a Tea Party member would be more qualified than anyone else to give a prediction. An educated guess is the best anybody can do right now. It would be easier if these boys were out of money. They're not. Right now, any "prediction" is really just a guess. This thing is so close that we may not even know on election day. The whole thing could wind up in the lawyers' hands.

Well, they are down here from Georgia going door to door asking questions so I would say they have a better idea of where people stand than the media does. Just a thought.

[mikegideon]

Well, they are down here from Georgia going door to door asking questions so I would say they have a better idea of where people stand than the media does. Just a thought.

The media is polling people too. Face to face polling is useless. You can't get enough samples to have any statistical significance. I get the feeling Mitt will win Florida based on the polls, but that's thousands of samples.

[Oh Shoot]

Maybe I'm all wet but I don't believe the actual election will be close at all...whoever wins it I expect it will be by 4-8 points of the popular vote and, more importantly, a hefty electoral college margin.

No way this will be a mandate election.

I predict BHO by 274/264, as he wins Ohio. Good chance Mitt wins the popular vote.

- OS

Edited October 28, 2012 by OhShoot

[Raoul]

The media is polling people too. Face to face polling is useless. You can't get enough samples to have any statistical significance. I get the feeling Mitt will win Florida based on the polls, but that's thousands of samples.

About polls, I have a question. With all the damn phone spoofing, who actually answers their home phone if they don't recognize the number?

My theory is that phone polls can't be reliable.

[mikegideon]

About polls, I have a question. With all the damn phone spoofing, who actually answers their home phone if they don't recognize the number?

My theory is that phone polls can't be reliable.

They just keep calling until they get enough participants. In my business, the general public is under constant measurement. In my 30+ years in that biz, the results of the surveys (with acredited methodology) never matches what you can hear on the street. You just can't contact enough folks from all of the various backgrounds.

[mikegideon]

No way this will be a mandate election.

I predict BHO by 274/264, as he wins Ohio. Good chance Mitt wins the popular vote.

- OS

You've been predicting something like that. I hope you're wrong. Saw another Obammy email this morning whining about Mitt's 54 million dollar advantage. There may be a little lesson in short attention spans. Kudos to Mitt for holding his guns.

[Raoul]

No way this will be a mandate election.

I predict BHO by 274/264, as he wins Ohio. Good chance Mitt wins the popular vote.

- OS

I'm concerned about the split vote scenario. It has the potential to be very detrimental.

[daddyo]

I predict BHO by 274/264, as he wins Ohio. Good chance Mitt wins the popular vote.

- OS

If it happens that way, I wonder if any of the voters who wanted to do way with the electoral college after the 2000 election (because Gore won the popular vote) would still feel the same way about it. I suspect not.

[Raoul]

Here's an interesting followup to my comment about polls being unreliable.

This is from today's Washington Post

[Oh Shoot]

Here's an interesting followup to my comment about polls being unreliable.

This is from today's Washington Post

Yeah, one point in there -- I've thought for a long time now that some 25% or more of folks don't have a landline at all must skew phone surveys.

I'd also tend to think that since young folks make up the majority of mobile phone only folks, the polls may actually be biased more to the right. In which case BHO could actually be way ahead in all these close ones. If he wins the swing states handily, it will lend a lot of credence to that.

- OS

[Raoul]

Yeah, one point in there -- I've thought for a long time now that some 25% or more of folks don't have a landline at all must skew phone surveys.

I'd also tend to think that since young folks make up the majority of mobile phone only folks, the polls may actually be biased more to the right. In which case BHO could actually be way ahead in all these close ones. If he wins the swing states handily, it will lend a lot of credence to that.

- OS

Thanks OS, you are a ray of sunshine. lol

[Raoul]

Here OS, this one further muddies the water...

[Oh Shoot]

Here OS, this one further muddies the water...

The section beginning with "...most independents are not, well, independent" is interesting indeed, and does indeed seem hopeful for our side.

But again, there seems to about about 25% of homes (which means even more than 25% of the population) that don't get polled AT ALL EVER now. So that seems like a huge variable that's not even in the equations. Whether the existing samples are also representative of them or not who knows? I tend to think you'd get a significantly different poll if you could poll ONLY non-landline users as a discrete group.

- OS

[RobertNashville]

I mean no disrespect to anyone here but I think some have a bit of a simplistic view of how a truly good and accurate poll is put together.

I don't mean to say that I'm any kind of an expert on the matter, far from it...but I've been following political polls for a few decades now (well, at least 4+ decades) and have picked up enough information here and there to at least understand that how questions are crafted, how the polls are conducted and, more importantly, how that data is interpreted is both art and science.

I don't put complete faith in polls but I do know that the organizations that do their job well are usually pretty damn close to the final result.

[Oh Shoot]

....I don't put complete faith in polls but I do know that the organizations that do their job well are usually pretty damn close to the final result.

You don't see the mobile phone thing as a possible game changing wrinkle? The number of landline free homes has more than doubled since the last election.

- OS

[mikegideon]

You don't see the mobile phone thing as a possible game changing wrinkle? The number of landline free homes has more than doubled since the last election.

- OS

They probably use some kind of weighting. That community is well aware of the issue.

[Sam1]

I watched the presidential debates yesterday on cspan of the other party candidates. The whole thing was laughable, Larry king forgot to let them do opening statements, everyone of them were contradicting themselves ( just like the accused Romney and Obama of doing) and Gary Johnson spent a couple of minutes explaining that he was going to stop every federal tax, replacing it with a consumption task. Then he said he was going to legalize pot, and control it by taxing it.

Idiots couldn't make up their minds on anything

Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2

[mikegideon]

Yep. About all Gary has really done is given Obama an extra 2 points in Minnesota (and elsewhere). I wonder if the Obama folks are sending him money for his campaign? I hope Johnson gets the clap... the incurable kind.

Edited October 29, 2012 by mikegideon

[RobertNashville]

You don't see the mobile phone thing as a possible game changing wrinkle? The number of landline free homes has more than doubled since the last election.

I suppose what I'm trying to say is that good, well run polling organizations have/will find a way to compensate for this societal switch; and, this switch has been going on quite a while now to the point that it's almost the "norm".

Cell phone numbers aren't secret and can be learned (or robot-dialed)...plus, many people who have switched ported their land-line number to their cell phone...many people give out their cell phone numbers all the time to various organizations. So, I don't think that someone having only a cell phone necessarily means they won't be polled.

I stopped using a land-line for actual telephone conversations at least 10 years ago yet I still get called by various companies asking my opinion about one thing or another.

So...a wrinkle? Could be. Game changing? I don't think so.

[RobertNashville]

I watched the presidential debates yesterday on cspan of the other party candidates. The whole thing was laughable...Idiots couldn't make up their minds on anything

There is a reason why these third-tier candidates are third-tier and it isn't just because of the two big, bad major parties as some folks want everyone to believe.