EMP would give America 'government by disaster

[mikegideon]

Iran can't figure out how to get the donkey porn viruses out of their secure network on the highest tier program in their country. Not sure how they would ever get a scud in our hemisphere without us knowing.

There you go again, poking holes in the tin foil

[mikegideon]

Think I recall reading that the space pulse is bigger because the burst of radiation stimulates atmospheric layers to make the actual emp, almost like a maser or laser stimulation

I recall that too. The nuke is the trigger. I forget the details.

[TMF]

There you go again, poking holes in the tin foil

Haha, it's what I do.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Semiconductors junctions can be killed with excess voltage. Doesn't take significant energy. The only way to make a transfomer fail is to melt it, or punch thru the unsulation with a really high voltage and with some energy behind it. That's a tall order when you're talking about millions of transformers. Melting an oil filled transformer is tough, especially with fuses in front of it.

If it mostly blows fuses, it will be devastating (because the grid will crash), but temporary.

Thanks Mike.

If the day ever comes, it would be nice if most substations and pole pigs would survive.

Its interesting but can't remember much and didn't know much in the past. CMOS was especially temperamental and typically had on-die protection diodes on the pins but the on-die clamping diodes back in the day must have had hardly any power capacity because a static discharge would take em out in spite of the protection diodes. I assumed a static discharge was taking out the wimpy clamping diodes themselves but maybe it was something else.

IIRC most of the opamps I used also had diodes built-in to inputs and outputs. Was mostly doing audio and digital as applied to synthesizers and stage lighting boards and such. For interconnections with the real world, the protection diodes needed protecting with current limiting resistors but as long as all the ins and outs were sitting behind a few hundred ohms they were reasonably impervious to getting zapped. If most chips nowadays still have liberal numbers of on-die clamping diodes, maybe if the pulse is quick with not much power, a practical board with lots of chips on it, the cumulative current sinking capacity of all the different clamping diodes in parallel might offer some protection?

Iran can't figure out how to get the donkey porn viruses out of their secure network on the highest tier program in their country. Not sure how they would ever get a scud in our hemisphere without us knowing.

The scenario is a scud launched from a tramp steamer off a coast. They might pull that off, no telling. Its an old scenario. Back at the beginning of the cold war, after Russia got the bomb but before ICBM's were perfected and long range bombers weren't even very good, grumpy old Robert Heinlein was advising that living in a harbor city wasn't such a good idea because it would be impossible to make sure that no ships in harbor might have a nuke in the hold.

That article also mentioned a 2 MT nuke sitting on the SCUD, which might be more of a practical issue than the SCUD, for a third-world nation. Making a 2 MT H-bomb small enough to hoist with a SCUD would be the trick maybe. AFAIK we were well into the 1960's before USA figgered out how to make small light high-yield H-bombs. H-Bombs of that day tended to be the size of a school bus, but lots heavier than a school bus. Looking at the old pictures its kinda amazing that B-52's could make it into the air toting those thangs.

But Pakistan most likely has figgered out how to make one small enough, and so perhaps it is a no-brainer that Iran wouldn't have to figure it out all by their lonesomes.

Its hard to know. When N. Korea lit off the nuke test that was such a small seismic event, that people were accusing it of being either a dud or maybe even a high-explosive fake-- Some people guessed maybe instead of a failed fizzle, the power level could also be consistent with a successful test of an H-Bomb trigger. Dunno nothin about it.

[10-Ring]

I read the book "One Second After" lots of good info even though it's fiction. Imagine every single thing that you own which is electronic no longer works. That's how it is going to be. We will be living 150 years in the past but without the infrastructure that was available 150 years ago. It's some scary stuff, any one that hasn't read "One Second After" I highly recommend it.

[mikegideon]

I read the book "One Second After" lots of good info even though it's fiction. Imagine every single thing that you own which is electronic no longer works. That's how it is going to be. We will be living 150 years in the past but without the infrastructure that was available 150 years ago. It's some scary stuff, any one that hasn't read "One Second After" I highly recommend it.

I would rather read the engineering studies. I get my fiction from the news media and politicians

[Guest 6.8 AR]

According to the article in the OP, you can do it with a scud if you get close enough. I don't know what makes him think we wouldn't blow the hell out of Iran. A would bet ALL my money that it won't take out our silos OR the secure com links to them. Scary internet articles... gotta love 'em.

I agree. Although it is a possibility, I

see other things causing us much

more misery than an EMP.

Plus TMF's hole poking makes good

sense.

I'm not concerned about an EMP,

'cause they probably have to get the

donkeys from us, anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DaveTN]

I’ll play.

Anyone that is going to launch a nuke against us is committing suicide. Therefore they are not going to detonate an air burst 250 miles above us to get the maximum effect of an EMP. They will do a low altitude burst over a major city for maximum devastation. While many nations may want to see us all dead, no nation on earth would try to occupy our country.

Who will build this nuke without anyone knowing? Who will put this nuke on a “Tramp Steamer†without anyone knowing? Too many people would need to be involved without anyone saying a word to pull this off.

We have the ability to detect a missile launch anywhere in the world. Do they think we don’t have the ability to detect and shoot down a scud?

[mikegideon]

I agree. Although it is a possibility, I

see other things causing us much

more misery than an EMP.

Plus TMF's hole poking makes good

sense.

I'm not concerned about an EMP,

'cause they probably have to get the

donkeys from us, anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

TMF is right. Scuds are hard to hide, especially with something that will bring them into launch position. They're dumber than a stick horse too. I think you aim them with iron sights

[mikegideon]

I’ll play.

Anyone that is going to launch a nuke against us is committing suicide. Therefore they are not going to detonate an air burst 250 miles above us to get the maximum effect of an EMP. They will do a low altitude burst over a major city for maximum devastation. While many nations may want to see us all dead, no nation on earth would try to occupy our country.

Who will build this nuke without anyone knowing? Who will put this nuke on a “Tramp Steamer†without anyone knowing? Too many people would need to be involved without anyone saying a word to pull this off.

We have the ability to detect a missile launch anywhere in the world. Do they think we don’t have the ability to detect and shoot down a scud?

Well, the article was written by a "subject matter expert" for the Department of Homeland Stupidity. You can hide a scud in Granny's underwear. Just ask 'em

[TMF]

But Pakistan most likely has figgered out how to make one small enough, and so perhaps it is a no-brainer that Iran wouldn't have to figure it out all by their lonesomes.

I dunno, Pakistan tends to keep its sectarian issues in order, but I don't think they'll want to see a Shia state with a delivery capability any time soon. Saudi royals have some pretty deep ties into Pakistani politics.

I don't lose sleep over Iran. They want to join the nuke club but I don't think it is something that will happen, even if Obama gets reelected. They keep running out of hands to play with the Syria thing being a huge blow to what they can influence in the region. Their only hand at this point is shutting down shipping lanes, but with a weak navy and even weaker air defense to protect that navy we could eradicate that problem with the few tomahawks we have floating on ships in the area.

We'll see a nuke detonated on the Korean Peninsula long before we see it in our hemisphere.

[mikegideon]

Yeah. Iran rattles their sabres, but seems to be smart enough to avoid getting blown up. If our ships aren't a deterrent, there's a boomer or two pretty close as well.

Edited August 5, 2012 by mikegideon

[TMF]

Yeah. Iran rattles their sabres, but seems to be smart enough to avoid getting blown up. If our ships aren't a deterrent, there's a boomer or two pretty close as well.

Dude, even the Emeratis bowed up when Iran started with the threats of closing the strait last year. That shows how much street cred they got with their neighbors. That's like getting punked out by the asthmatic kid with the high waters and coke bottle glasses.

[Guest TankerHC]

It wont be an enemy, Mother Nature will do it. I was just reading tonight on LiveScience that the current Solar Storm cycle is producing larger and larger storms. The Power Companies have been preparing for a major storm, should it knock out our Power Grid, they are purchasing special equipment that isnt susceptable to long sustained energy boosts. The problem is that the equipment costs so much and takes so long to put in place, they have decided not to do it unless something is imminent. So far the record for putting one in place is 10 days, working around the clock. Scientists say that if a burst were to happen like the one in 1921, they wouldnt have 10 days, more like minutes. There has already been what you might call a "dry run" this week. A large part of India's grid was knocked out earlier in the week, 670 Million people without power, took down everything, government, the military, the banking system.

[Paladin132]

I am surprised that folks think Iran will not have the bomb. Also no one has mentioned the DPRK. Their last series of "failed" missile launches are those that can have a nuclear payload. Some folks have pointed out that the trajectory matches more of a EMP launch than anything. It would definitely be a prime weapon for them.

As for Russia well look at their nuclear deterrence flights they have started up again over the last two years. Perhaps EMP can be used as a threat to coerce us to stay out of some event in the future.

Finally, their are laws requiring the military acquire hardened equipment. They are and have been for a very long time, suspended for everything I know of that we acquired and even for many big ticket items in other service branches.

No one wants to think about it but if you read the commission's report on it the pucker factor is pretty high. It's open source: 2011 Essential Guide to Electromagnetic Pulse Attack.

[TMF]

I am surprised that folks think Iran will not have the bomb. Also no one has mentioned the DPRK. Their last series of "failed" missile launches are those that can have a nuclear payload. Some folks have pointed out that the trajectory matches more of a EMP launch than anything. It would definitely be a prime weapon for them.

.

I mentioned the PRK a few posts back.

As for Iran, it is not as if I don't think that they won't try their damndest to get a nuke weapon, I just don't think that they'll get there with all the roadblocks that we continue to put into place. We're doing everything possible to prevent it short of blowing up some facilities, which I think would be very good to avoid as best as we can. The second and third order effects of a US strike on Iranian soil would not be good.

No one in that region wants them to get the bomb. Clearly there are a lot of things going on behind the scenes to prevent that from happening. Just assume that the Israelis, Saudis and Brits do a better job than the White House at keeping things quiet. Hell, the only time you hear anything about Israel is when Iran accuses them of killing one of their scientists. You better believe that they are sinking a lot of effort to keep the Iranian program derailed. It's kinda like kicking over an ant hill just to watch them scramble to rebuild, just to kick it over again after nearly getting it rebuilt. Iran will go broke before they get a nuke.

[Links2k]

You don't bust a nuke over the US so you can sell electronics. We shoot back, or that's the story anyway.

Thanks for the moment of sanity. All I need is "The Great EMP Highly Discounted Electronics Conspiracy" to deal with today.

[TMF]

Thanks for the moment of sanity. All I need is "The Great EMP Highly Discounted Electronics Conspiracy" to deal with today.

Well after the fluoride conspiracy failed to work they gotta come up with something new.

[mikegideon]

Thanks for the moment of sanity. All I need is "The Great EMP Highly Discounted Electronics Conspiracy" to deal with today.

Probably not much more far fetched than the crap you'll hear from your local news media. Kinda like the rising seas from global warming. It inches a little closer to the top of your boots every day.

[Paladin132]

TMF I missed it - came to the thread late and was probably glazed over that far down.

We didn't do well keeping Kim Jong Il from getting the bomb though did we? It can be done - especially when we see the amount of corruption and stupidity in the UN where we go to have sanctions put into place. As far as us doing anything covertly - well our human assets were gutted in the 90s and we have paid just a little more than lip service putting it back together since.

I agree that a strike is a bad idea. One we do not want to get into another conflict. The military is very badly stressed logistically and mentally from the past decade. However, with Iran and their ties to Hezbollah, and Hezbollah's ties to both al Qaeda and to some DTOs south of our border that can all add up to something rather nasty. With the rhetoric that comes from both the government and the mullahs of Iran I am not so sure that they have the same reservations that the western world does about their use, especially when they can rationalize it through allowing one of those other parties to actually flip the switch. That makes it our concern.

Also unfortunately I am not so sure that Israel has the capacity or the will (once we pressure them) to take the risks it would take to go after the facilities such as Nantaz. Bombing it may, and probably will not, take care of it and will only strengthen the resolve to produce the weapons in question. We recently acquired the "bunker buster" bomb which would be a better option, but again - we lack the will to do it.

BTW I like your description of it with a ant hill... I just disagree about your assessment - again because of our failure with a insignificant country such as NK being able to do it.

[TMF]

We didn't do well keeping Kim Jong Il from getting the bomb though did we? It can be done - especially when we see the amount of corruption and stupidity in the UN where we go to have sanctions put into place. As far as us doing anything covertly - well our human assets were gutted in the 90s and we have paid just a little more than lip service putting it back together since.

Yeah, we did quite a poor job with NK, but at least we have SK there as a buffer. NK is the most dangerous nuke threat on the planet due to how the power there is consolidated. Even if the new "Glorious Leader" is a level headed fellow, he is only a coup away from a nuke being detonated on the peninsula. But the big difference between NK and Iran is that NK has always had a benefactor. Iran does not. Iran doesn't even have a real ally in the region. Syria is a few months away from Sunnis either taking a chunk of the government or the whole pie. Iraq has its own problems and the Shia gov there wants no part of anything Persian. Iran might be giving handy-j's under the table to Russia and China, but neither one of those countries stands anything to benefit from Iran other than oil, and from what I hear you can name your price right now with the sanctions.

Things have the potential to get worse in regards to development, but that doesn't mean they will in the near to distant future. They have a long road ahead to weaponization and we keep putting sugar in their gas tank. Despite Obama's seemingly cold relations with Israel, he has turned a very blind eye to what they're doing and I wouldn't be surprised if we had provided support along the way for some of the stuff they've been up to. For all his faults, I think that Obama has played a pretty cool headed game with Iran by achieving small victories without making the situation more tense than it needs to be. It would just be nice if he could keep his staff from opening their effing mouths.

My most favorite excerpt from the past year of the Iranians pretending that they matter was when Ahmadinejad first made threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz to which the 5th Fleet in Bahrain responded to in the press. Instead of having brass respond they had their PR officer do it who was an O-3 I believe, and a female. Her response was a well worded promise of the total destruction of the Iranian Navy. Mind you how insulting that was to not only have a low ranking officer make threats against an entire navy, but a female one at that. That is like mailing Ahmadinejad a roast pig stuffed with Qurans.

Edited August 6, 2012 by TMF 18B

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Well after the fluoride conspiracy failed to work they gotta come up with something new.

I actually heard that one the other day. I almost laughed at the guy saying it.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

North Korea is just a proving ground for China. That's where I see the threat. NK are the useful idiots for China.

South Korea doesn't stand a chance if something broke loose over there without our involvement and we are

stretched awful thin for that.

Iran, or the Muslim Brotherhood, if you will recall, is gaining control over the entire southern Mediterranean

countries and is surrounding Israel. There are things going on over there that Israel will not have much

choice but to deal with. I wouldn't underestimate anything about Iran. Remember, they don't care anything about

using a backpack loaded with explosives if they don't have a missile available.

Obama is trying to lose wars, not win anything. Playing quarterback to the middle east problems require

some biblical answers that I haven't heard around here. Netanyahu's cards are being dealt from beneath

the deck. His choices are lowered more as time goes by.

I don't know what Russia wants out of Syria.

[TMF]

Iran, or the Muslim Brotherhood, if you will recall, is gaining control over the entire southern Mediterranean

countries and is surrounding Israel. There are things going on over there that Israel will not have much

choice but to deal with. I wouldn't underestimate anything about Iran. Remember, they don't care anything about

using a backpack loaded with explosives if they don't have a missile available.

Dunno about that. They have influence in Lebanon, but Egypt and Jordan aren't exactly drinking buddies with the Ayatollah. A lot of those fundamentalists in Egypt don't look at the Shias as true Muslims, so I don't see a connection there. Jordan is an ally. Syria has no hope of returning to the relationship it had with Iran over the years. Even if the civil war all turned around it would be a long time before Syria could ever hope to do anything outside its borders.

I don't know what Russia wants out of Syria.

Mediterranean access.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

I dunno, Pakistan tends to keep its sectarian issues in order, but I don't think they'll want to see a Shia state with a delivery capability any time soon. Saudi royals have some pretty deep ties into Pakistani politics.

I don't lose sleep over Iran. They want to join the nuke club but I don't think it is something that will happen, even if Obama gets reelected. They keep running out of hands to play with the Syria thing being a huge blow to what they can influence in the region. Their only hand at this point is shutting down shipping lanes, but with a weak navy and even weaker air defense to protect that navy we could eradicate that problem with the few tomahawks we have floating on ships in the area.

We'll see a nuke detonated on the Korean Peninsula long before we see it in our hemisphere.

Thanks TMF

I'll leave obsessive worry about Iran to the recipients of Bill Kristol's happy holidays mailing list, who will be foreign policy advisors in the Romney admin. Members of the neocon garage band and choral society. Booked for the inauguration ball to perform a beach boys acapella harmony rendition of "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran."

Hadn't been paying much attention. From earlier reading had got the impression that many years ago A. Q. Kahn had most likely distributed detailed blueprints to the usual suspects, and Iran is basically awaiting the centrifuges final spin cycle on the Uranium Tetrafluoride laundry, and a final parts shipment back-ordered from Radio Shack and Ace Hardware.

Yesterday read a bit more and dunno what to think. Wikipedia has a long detailed article on A. Q. Most likely written by pakistani engineers, as the grammar and writing style is more tortured than even the chicken scratchings of USA engineers.

Part of the article praises A. Q. as a super genius and one heck of a great guy. And then another part of the document makes clear that A. Q. is a preening conceited idiot savant who barely knows metallurgy and centrifuges, doesn't know squat on nuclear physics or practical bomb technology, who was barely allowed out of his cage long enough to witness the atom bomb tests, prone to inaccurate public statements and who habitually claims the work of others as his own.

Was also reading about the Pak nuclear program and it's hard to say whether those guys can make a 2 MT device smaller than a railroad tanker car. Maybe they don't have plans to give away even if A.Q. had copies. Difficult to know. As demonstrated in the run-up to the Iraq invasion, nobody from any nation would ever lie about capabilities. What pak has demonstrated are nukes up to 40 KT and some small explosions that are either fizzles, successful tactical neutron bombs, or successful H-Bomb trigger cores, depending on who you want to believe. No public hard data that they can build a megaton range three-stage device that will fit on a scud, but who knows.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Lester Weevils