Big Gold & Silver Moves Coming in August

[Guest ArmyVeteran37214]

[Guest nysos]

oh, another video.

[Sam1]

It's crap as usual, That guy has no inside information, the FOMC meeting is on August 1st to discuss QE3 and long term securities. That in itself is already causing the market to fluctuate.

Let me try this:

Hey everyone, I've got some hot top secret information on currency trading. Between August and September, the AUD is going to rise 5% against the USD. I can't say who gave me this information, but we have known each other for years. Now, you may ask yourself why me myself am not a multi-multi-multi millionaire while being privy to this information, but I don't want to be greedy. I'm going to help all of you make money for no reason other than from the goodness of my heart.

I'm now an official speculator, after all it's on the internet so it must be real!

[TrickyNicky]

You know I really don't get where all the animosity twords ArmyVeterans posts comes from.

Do I agree with everything he posts?

Nope.

I do however applaud the fact that he recognizes certain issues and tries to spread alternate view points in regards to them.

What ever happened to the rule Thumpers father taught him? "If you can't say anything nice, don't say nothing at all."

Keep in mind this is not directed at anyone, it just seems like alot of times he goes out of his way to post something he feels passionately about just to get the $h@t end of the stick handed back to him.

Anyway. Thanks for the vid AV, like Sam I'm pretty skeptical but interesting none the less.

[Sam1]

There's no animosity towards him in my post, sorry if it came off that way. I was actually mocking the guy making the video because that Bill Murphy guy has his grubby little hands in a bunch of ventures in the metal market.

He's a hypocrite talking about how the markets are being manipulated, but then tells everyone to go buy silver while advertising dealers/distributors on his own website.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

There's probably a lot of truth slimed into an ad there, but it doesn't matter and it certainly doesn't take a false

prophet to illustrate that our country is failing. The relative value of something will scare buyers and it won't make

much of a difference. Can Paul fix this?

[Guest Lester Weevils]

It won't hurt my feelings if silver goes thru the roof but am confused at the corollaries should that happen.

For instance a few years ago you could buy an ounce of silver for the price of a burger. Then a few years later you could buy an ounce of silver for the price of an eight piece Popeye's chicken box. One corollary of $1000 silver-- UNLESS SILVER IS AN INCREDIBLY INFLATED BUBBLE.-- The price of a burger or a box of popeye's chicken will also be in the ballpark of $1000.

Now that will be just fine assuming that minimum wage has risen to $1000 per hour. About the same deal as today except with two zeros tacked to all salaries and prices. In fact it is not at all unreasonable to expect $1000 burgers and $1000 per hour minimum wage eventually. When? 200 years? 100 years? 10 years? Unless I'm figuring it wrong, the $1000 hamburger is 200 years away at an average annual inflation rate of 2.33%. The $1000 burger is 100 years away at an inflation rate of 4.71%. The $1000 burger is 50 years away at a rate of 9.65%. The $1000 burger is 20 years away at annual inflation rate of 25.89%. The $1000 burger is 10 years away at annual inflation rate of 58.49%. The $1000 burger is 5 years away at annual inflation rate of 151%. The $1000 burger is 2 years away at annual inflation rate of 900%.

What is the highest inflation rate we can long-term survive with reasonable expectation that the minimum wage tracks inflation, while unemployment maintains hopefully lower than today or at worst case not drastically higher than today? In principle we could survive rather high inflation except that the economy has a very long, detailed, impossible-to-measure-or-calculate impulse response. To successfully adapt to real high inflation would require revamping of the economy to make it more nimble to rapid price changes.

If we get $1000 silver substantially sooner than the $1000 hamburger and the $1000 per hour minimum wage then it will indicate a silver bubble. What goes up must come down. The last fella holding the silver bag will be a sad miserable remorseful person. But the next-to-last person holding the silver bag will be a happy fella! Such as in the Silver Crash of 1980. http://en.wikipedia....Silver_Thursday

If we get the $1000 burger about the same time as $1000 silver, it depends on whether we got there with a tracking minimum wage. If minimum wage is nowhere near $1000 per hour, or if minimum wage reaches $1000 per hour but we have massive unemployment, then who will buy my silver? Nobody will have the money to buy burgers, much less buy my silver. In that case, unless McDonalds will take silver then maybe I can't even sell the silver in order to buy a burger.

If minimum wage reaches $1000 per hour about the same time as $1000 burgers and $1000 silver, and we avoid massive unemployment, then it would have been wise to buy the silver because I can buy burgers at the same rate as money spent in 2002 to buy silver. The silver would have held its value better than the money had I invested the money at going interest rates or buried it in a mason jar in the back yard. But I wouldn't be fabulously wealthy. Would still only have enough silver to eat burgers for a year or two.

I suspect that near-term $1000 silver, unless it would be a bubble, would indicate that better near-term investments would be guns, ammo, bulk food, remote high-ground land in the least-populated states, razor wire and claymores.

I'm a real dummie but if one expects long-term high inflation, but one also expects that everything won't completely fall apart, real estate to the best you can do it without risking forfeiture and losing it all. For instance if you think you can hold on to some kind of job for 10 years, do a low interest loan on a house as expensive as you figure you can maintain payments on. If your income tracks the high inflation, then after a few years you are paying "hardly anything" in house payments, but the house remains as "innately valuable" as it ever was. The corollary of that, is that you make out like a bandit but the bank loses its shirt on the loan. After 10 years the bank profit on the house loan isn't even a rounding error. So if you have money invested in the bank, they won't be paying much interest or dividends. However on a personal level if you can manage to make payments for 10 years you just bought the deal of the century.

Edited July 21, 2012 by Lester Weevils