Whats your SHTF?

[LI0NSFAN]

After starting another thread, I get the feeling that I am a lot less paranoid than the next guy. I am wondering what most peoples SHTF is. Is it along what I think of, civil unrest that is localized to an region and the rest of the country is fine, or is it an all out post apocalyptic world war and YOU are our only hope for survival. Just want to know what you are prepping for and general supplies. I only asked this because recently found out that I know someone who recently bought a armored personnel carrier and has a bunker that looks like a military warehouse. I just dont ever see a need as much as he has.

Edited March 26, 2012 by climberscott_1999

[Guest ochretoe]

Living on a fault line and 10 miles from North Memphis, earthquake is my biggest concern. If a big one hits this area Memphis will fall into a war zone. The folks who have had everything given to them will expect to be taken care of. When that doesn't happen they will go nuts and start looting and killing to get hot cheetos. There are a million people in the Memphis metro area. A full 25% are on wellfare. That is 250,000 folks that will need to be taken care of and another 250,000 that work and live day to day subsistance. With a potential 1/2 million people looking for food 20 miles or less from me that is my concern. I figure if I can survive 30 to 60 days I should be ok.

[LI0NSFAN]

That is exactly the mindset I am in, I just live in a much smaller city where a lot less people are on welfare and need to be taken care of. I am also putting 30-60 days as get past the worst of it timeline.

[Guest ExTexan]

There are a few things that worry me, the collapse of our dollar, I dont see us pulling out of this "recession" anytime soon, there is also North Korea, Iran with their constant threats of continued nuclear exploration without any IAEA oversight.....although both of these countries have been saying and doing this for a while now. Then there are the threats of natural disasters that depending on magnitude could cause shorter or longer term mayhem. I guess I am one of those guys who is trying to keep all his prepping options open to anything.

I think a nice bunker would do just about everyone good. Although I dont see myself affording one of thise for a long time.

[LI0NSFAN]

EX texan- Bunkers can be done at a reasonable price. The most affordable is the shipping container that is stuck underground. I was in a bunker about a year ago where the guy bought 6 of them for under 5000 and he can weld so he made doorways to each of them and put up some walls to give some privacy. He said after getting the property, getting a well, containers and his time and building supplies he is in it for 8,000 and he spread it out over 4 yrs. He got the first container and made it ready for short term living in the first year and keep adding after that. He is now at about 1000sf of living space. He is getting 2 more, 1 for food storage and the other for security items. I have a little more in mine,but I can't weld so that takes me out of that option. I spread my cost out over 5 years to make it more affordable. I got the property first year, got the well, and septic the second and just save the other 3 years. I just finished building a House on the property as well so parents can move in when they retire. I like living near downtown and all the parks so we prbably wont live there for a while so inlaws can live there.

Edited March 26, 2012 by climberscott_1999

[Guest RCLARK]

I think a natural disaster is the most likely reason we would have a long term SHTF situation. Most likely would be regional. The hardest hit (in terms of riots and such) would be the larger metro areas. I work in the Nashville area but live out in the country. My primary concern would be getting home to my family. Once there, I dont think I would have to worry so much about defense as I would survivial (food, water, shelter). I have a bail out bag that I keep in my car that has enough supplies and survival goodies that I could hike it home if need be. I have adequate guns/ammo with me or in the car to be able to fight my way out of town. Once home I could survive for a long period of time if necessary.

[LI0NSFAN]

Rclark- I think that you prepared for the possiblity of having to hike home, I overlooked that. I will be getting my BOB ready for the car today. I will be getting another pair of boot/shoes to pack just in case I am not wearing propper footwear. Other than that I think I have everything at the house to add. I keep a BOB in the workshop to grab before we go to the safe house. I was not thinking about having to hike there.

[Guest cardcutter]

I can think of several cases of a short term need. I live outside the evacuation zone for Sequoia Nuclear reacter. TVA going bad is a concern. Natural disasters, Massive solar diruptions causing the grid to go down.Mostly it is the over reaction by urban idiots I worry about.

[Caster]

Economic collapse. We're on a razor's edge right now. No one really seems to appreciate the gravity of it. We're all on a real time market. There is no stock room at Kroger and walmart anymore. All it takes is for the economy to crumble enough to disturb the supply line and chaos will ensue. Look Katrina, imagine that nation wide.

SHTF situations are a lot like being scared of the dark. Honestly, there's nothing out there that's going to hurt you that have much control over and the THE most dangerous thing that goes bump in the night....is man. Sheeple, lemmings what ever analogy suits you best, humans are now herd animals and any [real] cowboy will tell you that a spooked herd is much worse than the lurking wolf. You can put a bullet in the wolf but what will you do when all the drones and meat droids you rely on the keep the infrastructure going panic and start going ape ?

Less than a micron of civilization has what it takes to get off the grid. We all depend on SOMETHING someone else is doing.

Now, couple this with the fact that the middle income working man is getting sick and tired of working so other lazy lazy trash can do nothing. This country does not need most of the rich and the poor[lazy] are like a cancer. Get enough working men to say screw it and the rest will follow, falling like dominoes.

I'm a firm believer in paying a fair amount of taxes. Render unto caesar what is caesar's. Unfortunately caesar is laboring under the delusion that EVERYTHING is his. A christian man will tithe ten percent. Well, if God can be happy with ten percent, so can caesar. Unfortunately, it ain't that way. Sooner than later enough people will say enough is enough and throw up his left hand, extend his middle finger and if you'll look closely, his right hand will rest ready at his hip.

[LI0NSFAN]

Well said caster. I think that the lazy will only last 30 days or so before the have all died trying to steal food or will be mooching of some nice neighbor or family member and then at that point things will start to turn around.

[Guest USMC 2013]

SHTF can mean anything from the weather knocking the power out for "x" amount of time, all the way to mass rioting in all major cities due to "x" happening.

What, IMO, is more likely is some event that disrupts our regular life and makes life hard if you're not prepared to live without all the systems of support. Power goes out for 10 days due to an ice storm, economy goes down the drain and I lose my job ( if I have preps at least I can still feed my family), natural disaster stops normal shipping and distribution, etc... If trucks can't get to Wally World, Kroger, et al you still need to eat so having 3 months of preps will be very beneficial.

I never want to see the extreme SHTF scenario, but if it happens I will be as prepared as possible. Food preps, back-up power, ability to grow food, weapons/ammo for self defense and means for trade and barter are my main forms of prepping.

Semper Fi,

Joe

[Jonnin]

I do not really worry about it. I have emergency food and water for a few weeks, and first aid stuff, etc. I have a supply of ammo that should last a few weeks and the ability to produce tens of thousands of rounds more as needed. I can defend against looters and survive long enough to either get the heck outta dodge or turtle up as I see fit. I could survive a katrina-like localized disaster, in other words, actually do rather well considering. The most likely issue here is going to be a tornado (no floods, no city eating fires, the biggest earthquake in my lifetime... I didnt feel it, no hurricanes, etc). We just had one of the worst tornado seasons of all time with massive damage all around, and there was no widespread looting or unrest or lack of basic needs. Just a mess to clean up for the many unlucky folks. Saw a lot of good stuff in that.... neighbors helping neighbors, lot of working together all around.

If things are bad enough for me to try to leave the house & survive out in the woods/ruins for years on end in some sort of end of the civilized world scenario, well I will be perfectly honest here. I would probably just shoot myself rather than go thru a real end of the world/civilazation type existence that lasts for decades on end. Not much of an outlook, but as I said, its an honest one.

[Caster]

If things are bad enough for me to try to leave the house & survive out in the woods/ruins for years on end in some sort of end of the civilized world scenario, well I will be perfectly honest here. I would probably just shoot myself rather than go thru a real end of the world/civilazation type existence that lasts for decades on end. Not much of an outlook, but as I said, its an honest one.

Never will I reprimand you for that comment but be mindful of what you say it lest we see a repeat of the Doomsday Prepper guy. Having said that....NEVER fire your last round of ammo, some things are worse than death.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Caster

[LI0NSFAN]

I guess I am more of the norm than the other thread shows. I completely agree with USMC, I think a couple of months should clear things up. I am more concerned about stock levels at stores causing a panic. As Jonnin said we have had ALOT of disasters around here lately and have seen nothing but good come out of people. I am sure there are a few cases of people being stupid. Good has outweighed the bad.I think a Major power outage for a prolonged period may change that though.

[UncleJak]

Sometimes I wish there would be a SHTF...then I could go back into the woods and get away from all this...

That being said I guess I pick either power grid fail or economic collapse, whichever comes first. Then off to the woods I go...

[Jonnin]

Yes, I kept the comment brief and am not going to debate it, justify it, recommend it for others, or anything else. Just an honest response to the question.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

There are so many natural disaster scenarios of various low but not nil probability, which one can't plan for in great detail, though food, water and other basic goods would most likely come in handy.

I will not be mad if things get better and the future proves me wrong, but I expect the economic s to keep hitting the f at a steady rate for the rest of my life. The steady drip drip of economic woes will inevitably increase gov oppression and elect increasingly crazy politicians, causing wild periodic swings of heavy-handed and wrong-headed gov policy. As things worsen-- First the public will seek solution by electing crazy-and-ineffective right wingers. After the right wingers take over for a few years the situation continues to worsen-- The public will elect left wingers even crazier than the current crop.

I don't know how many more cycles that that the gov can oscillate, with the economy getting worse on each cycle, before the oscillator gets stuck and for practical purposes becomes a defacto dictatorship. Perhaps the oscillator can run for many more cycles or perhaps the very next cycle will hit a rail and latch up. The final latched-up state will most likely be a "centrist" government-- Having achieved middle of the road status by incorporating the very worst ideas from both left and right while mixing in a heaping helping of authoritarianism. Something for everybody while maintaing the public fiction of devotion to traditional american values.

One of the higher-probability near-term possibilities-- The economy keeps degrading until me and wife both lose jobs and can't find work-- But it doesn't fall apart bad enough to put the bill collectors out of biz. If it falls apart so thoroughly that the bill collectors are out of biz, then that would be a "worse" crash but possibly a marginally more survivable crash.

Though me and wife have a positive balance "on paper" and minimal debt, that would bleed us down real quick. If the gov tries to raise cash by raising taxes and finding new ways to appropriate private property then it will bleed even quicker. It isn't impossible that the gov could nationalize private retirement accounts and then pay whatever they feel like paying. That would wipe out wife's $300,000 nest egg. That's why I never made an IRA. The gov will have to seize more than retirement accounts to get my modest stash.

Seems highly likely that the gov will either default on social security, or they will freeeze the payment levels and finance it for many years with printed money. Printed money would eventually lead to SS checks remaining maybe $1000 per month while gas is $50 a gallon and burgers are $50 apiece. Those seem the primary alternatives. Or a combination of both. Either quit paying SS or keep paying with increasingly worthless money.

Me & wife might be marginally better off with a clean SS default, assuming that the gov would also quit printing money and would long-term halt their policy of perpetual inflation. Thataway whatever modest private funds we might be able to keep wall street and the gov from stealing-- At least whatever is left would retain some value. If the gov finances SS with printed money then the savings will become as equally worthless as the SS checks.

However there are surely many people who don't have any savings at all who would get hurt even more by an SS default than by perpetual hyper-inflation.

So anyway I don't have shrewd advice how to prep for that kind of future, if it works out thataway. Been trying to figure out what if anything would actually work.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Lester Weevils

[Ebow1]

During the flooding in Nashville a lot of people showed how good they were. But the difference between short term property damage and the end of civilization can make a lot of that disappear. A full on end of civilization I don't see coming. China, North Korea, or some other opportunistic enemy (or maybe even ally) will make a grab at the power now left vacant.

[Guest USMC 2013]

There are so many natural disaster scenarios of various low but not nil probability, which one can't plan for in great detail, though food, water and other basic goods would most likely come in handy.

I will not be mad if things get better and the future proves me wrong, but I expect the economic s to keep hitting the f at a steady rate for the rest of my life. The steady drip drip of economic woes will inevitably increase gov oppression and elect increasingly crazy politicians, causing wild periodic swings of heavy-handed and wrong-headed gov policy. As things worsen-- First the public will seek solution by electing crazy-and-ineffective right wingers. After the right wingers take over for a few years the situation continues to worsen-- The public will elect left wingers even crazier than the current crop.

I don't know how many more cycles that that the gov can oscillate, with the economy getting worse on each cycle, before the oscillator gets stuck and for practical purposes becomes a defacto dictatorship. Perhaps the oscillator can run for many more cycles or perhaps the very next cycle will hit a rail and latch up. The final latched-up state will most likely be a "centrist" government-- Having achieved middle of the road status by incorporating the very worst ideas from both left and right while mixing in a heaping helping of authoritarianism. Something for everybody while maintaing the public fiction of devotion to traditional american values.

One of the higher-probability near-term possibilities-- The economy keeps degrading until me and wife both lose jobs and can't find work-- But it doesn't fall apart bad enough to put the bill collectors out of biz. If it falls apart so thoroughly that the bill collectors are out of biz, then that would be a "worse" crash but possibly a marginally more survivable crash.

Though me and wife have a positive balance "on paper" and minimal debt, that would bleed us down real quick. If the gov tries to raise cash by raising taxes and finding new ways to appropriate private property then it will bleed even quicker. It isn't impossible that the gov could nationalize private retirement accounts and then pay whatever they feel like paying. That would wipe out wife's $300,000 nest egg. That's why I never made an IRA. The gov will have to seize more than retirement accounts to get my modest stash.

Seems highly likely that the gov will either default on social security, or they will freeeze the payment levels and finance it for many years with printed money. Printed money would eventually lead to SS checks remaining maybe $1000 per month while gas is $50 a gallon and burgers are $50 apiece. Those seem the primary alternatives. Or a combination of both. Either quit paying SS or keep paying with increasingly worthless money.

Me & wife might be marginally better off with a clean SS default, assuming that the gov would also quit printing money and would long-term halt their policy of perpetual inflation. Thataway whatever modest private funds we might be able to keep wall street and the gov from stealing-- At least whatever is left would retain some value. If the gov finances SS with printed money then the savings will become as equally worthless as the SS checks.

However there are surely many people who don't have any savings at all who would get hurt even more by an SS default than by perpetual hyper-inflation.

So anyway I don't have shrewd advice how to prep for that kind of future, if it works out thataway. Been trying to figure out what if anything would actually work.

The only hedge against inflation, and even hyper inflation, is precious metals. Namely silver and gold.

Whatever an once of gold will buy right now, it will also buy in the future, after a period of hyper inflation and deflation. For example, say 1 oz of gold will buy (8) ea. full grown hogs right now. Pretend we have hyper inflation, it's 20 yrs in the future and the dollar is realistically worth only 1/20 of what it is today. No matter what the dollar "worth" of gold is, that same 1 oz of gold will still buy you the (8) ea. full grown hogs. History has proven this many times, even when measuring different governments and vastly different time frames.

Here's a very easy to see example of silver holding it's value and buying power. In 1964 two dimes would buy a gallon of gas. Those same two dimes are now worth about $5 and will get you about 1 1/4 gallons of gas. Why? They are 90% silver and the silver value of two dimes is about $5 right now.

Since 2008 the stock market is up 1%, while gold and silver are both up right around 100%. It's easy to invest in silver and gold too. Just buy it incrementally. Plus, since most transactions are done in cash there is no paper trail for the man to try and take taxes. Really a no brainer when you break it down as a good overall investment and as a hedge against inflation.

Semper Fi,

Joe

[LI0NSFAN]

USMC As I agree with you, I think that if we get to the point of money not being worth anything at all and the economy is shot, gold wont be of much use. I would not trade my food, guns,ammo or any other supplies for any amount of gold. gold and silver are great to protct yourself against hyper inflation, just don't know how good it would be for SHTF.

[Guest USMC 2013]

USMC As I agree with you, I think that if we get to the point of money not being worth anything at all and the economy is shot, gold wont be of much use. I would not trade my food, guns,ammo or any other supplies for any amount of gold. gold and silver are great to protct yourself against hyper inflation, just don't know how good it would be for SHTF.

Severe SHTF, you're right about gold and silver being worthless for a time period. I was answering more in just a hedge against hyper inflation, something like what happened in Mexico or Argentina. They experinced bad inflation, but not a total breakdown of civilization. Semper Fi,

Joe

[LI0NSFAN]

Oh ok, I half read what you wrote (ADD) and gave my uninformed opinion. Yes in the case like Argintina gold would be helpful. I think a bunch of MRE's might be just as valuable on trade. I have a little of everything just incase barting becomes the new cashflow.

[Caster]

Non-perishable foods, med supplies, toilet paper and booze. In a future world where no ever hits the fan, it's still worth what you paid for it! How can anyone go wrong with canned food and shotguns?

[LI0NSFAN]

I have stocked up on all those but booze, I dont drink so it would go to waste if shtf doesn't happen

[Caster]

I have stocked up on all those but booze, I dont drink so it would go to waste if shtf doesn't happen

Good lord man, don't drink it! Trade it! OR buy multipurpose stuff like PGA, ever clear, ect. There will be people willing to trade some nice stuff for bottle full of 'forget my woes'. If a man wants to drown his sorrows and he wants to trade me something I need to survive, he's gonna get it.