Latest from NASA on Upcoming Arrival of Solar Flare

[Spook]

Due to hit earth early early Thursday a.m.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html

[TN Outlaw]

could this cause power grid failures if it hits the earth?

[Guest bkelm18]

could this cause power grid failures if it hits the earth?

Could it? Yes. Will it? Probably not.

[Chris]

"Such a CME could result in a severe geomagnetic storm, causing aurora at low latitudes, with possible disruption to high frequency radio communication, global positioning systems (GPS), and power grids."

[Garufa]

It's 2012 man!

[TN Outlaw]

this is from a Science website.........

The largest solar flare in five years is racing toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and flights.

"It's hitting us right in the nose," said Joe Kunches, a scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The solar storm was likely to last through Friday, but the region that erupted could still send more blasts our way, Kunches said.

He said another set of active sunspots was ready to aim at Earth.

But for now, scientists were waiting to see what happened when the charged particles hit Earth at 6.4m kmh.

NASA solar physicist Alex Young added: ''It could give us a bit of a jolt. But he said this is far from a super solar storm.''

[Fourtyfive]

So ... no foil hats ?

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Just asking because I don't know much about this stuff. Is the science and technology

there enough to know when these kind of events are going to effect us, or are they saying

based on an event observed already that this event will result in this. Are they predicting

or are they observing?

At 1100 miles a second I know the math. Just wondering if I was missing something else. I've

heard the predictions of an event sometime in 2012, like others and think it is Barbara Streisand

singing again, not unlike all that fine global warming predicting stuff. Just wondering.

I got that from the quote TNoutlaw posted, and knowing how well volcanoes are predicted,

I thought I would ask that and how they aim.

Edited March 8, 2012 by 6.8 AR

[Guest Lester Weevils]

It is well known that a properly-assembled tin foil hat is the finest defense against solar storm brain burn.

6.8AR, there are fairly frequent flares and such. The frequency tends to follow an 11 year major cycle, with apparent longer cycles super-imposed. Dunno if it is really that cut-and-dried, but the summing of multiple cycles of different duration can result in occasional times when all the cycles are near max, and other occasional times when all the cycles are near min.

Most flares don't hit the earth because the earth is a small target and presumably the sun shoots flares with quasi-random timing and quasi-random directions as it rotates. So we only get a few coming right at us.

There are many observational platforms both earth-and-space-based. Here are a couple of the good-uns--

http://en.wikipedia..../SOHO_satellite

http://en.wikipedia....TEREO_satellite

Coronal Mass Ejections do not follow a straight line because of the solar magnetic field, and of course it takes awhile for them to reach earth's orbit. So an ejection likely to hit earth will usually be aimed "somewhere else" when it goes off, but the earth moves and the ejection doesn't follow a straight line, and so the intersection point is not obvious without calculation. As far as I know however, it can rather reliably be calculated. More reliable than the calculation of Nashville's average temperature and rainfall in the year 2112.

They can also pretty reliably measure the intensity of each ejection. So they can generally predict a hit, and the ballpark strength of the hit. However, they can't predict exactly what if anything will get damaged. Though the odds of damage are obviously higher when we get hit, and the odds are higher on a high-intensity hit.

That is not to say we know everything about space weather and the behavior of the solar wind, the solar magnetic field, the heliosphere, etc. They have been making "surprising" discoveries which turn things upside-down, rather routinely lately.

This is an excellent site for daily updates and reference info on solar weather--

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Nowadays there are many amateur solar astronomers. Most folks live in cities, and cities are so light-polluted at night that it is frustrating to be an urban or suburban night-time amateur astronomer. You have to be hundreds of miles away from urban areas to get excellent dark skies. On the other hand, the sun is so freaking bright, you can see that flaming ball pretty good thru a telescope as long as the air happens to be clear and steady. I don't look at the sun, but lots of folks do. They generally gravitate to spaceweather.com site to keep up with the news. As if studying earthly weather wasn't already nerdy enough!

Edit-- Perhaps silly, but because a warning is printed on every telescope sold nowadays, and some people really are rather "unimaginative", maybe it is smart to tack it on here-- Do not look at the sun with a telescope, unless you have a telescope designed or equipped to safely look at the sun. As far as that goes, do not even look at the sun with the naked eye.

I suppose the telescope warning is similar in importance to the repeated gun warning-- Treat every gun as if it were loaded. Clear all weapons before dry firing, dissasembly, or cleaning.

I suppose since people routinely don't know or ignore the gun warning, it is conceivable that people also routinely don't know or ignore the telescope warning.

Edited March 8, 2012 by Lester Weevils

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Thanks, Lester. They do their predictions based on an ejection. It was just the skeptic in me

and I don't follow much of that stuff.

I know when I'm on the train in the middle of the night, the sky is beautiful and you can see

so much more of it. Meteor showers are easy to see around New Johnsonville. That's about

the extent of me and the stars, however it is fascinating.

[enfield]

HF radio propagation wasn't that great BEFORE the CME.

[UncleJak]

Point me towards danger, I am ready! (and I have my foil hat on...lol)

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Thanks, Lester. They do their predictions based on an ejection. It was just the skeptic in me

and I don't follow much of that stuff.

I know when I'm on the train in the middle of the night, the sky is beautiful and you can see

so much more of it. Meteor showers are easy to see around New Johnsonville. That's about

the extent of me and the stars, however it is fascinating.

Hi 6.8AR

IMO the essence of science is hard-headed skepticism. And an open mind to consider all possibilities. Not that I know anything about it.

I may have misunderstood part of your question. The solar storm hits have effects similar to nuclear EMP, but usually not as intense as a nearby EMP would be.

As far as historical damage, the strong storms that hit us have been known in the past to damage satellites and earthly electrical systems. In the century or so since we have developed large electrical grids, there were a few cases of rather large damage in some regions. I think it is usually more likely in higher latitudes, though perhaps the exact nature of the hit can influence what region is most-affected. Dunno.

Just like with earthly hurricanes and other weather-- Just as there is a "storm of the century" stronger than any you would expect except about once per century-- There are even storms of a millenium, crazy rare but also crazy strong.

There were a couple of documented heavy solar storm hits before we had an electrical grid but after we had enough science to observe and record. According to records, within the last few hundred years were a couple of solar storms which as described sound stronger than what we have experienced lately. Its been too long since reading about it. I think there was one in the 19th century strong enough to make BRIGHT auroras down in lower latitudes. I think recall reading that people were very impressed who lived in regions who normally dont see auroras. IIRC it heavily smoked parts of the telegraph systems of the time.

Based on such records, some fellas have estimated that it is only a matter of time until we again get a monster of that magnitude (or even larger). Some people say that with our modern grid and satellites, a big'un can cause enough damage for long-term expensive outages in "lucky regions" and expensive damage to lots of satellites. Dunno.

====

Guess a locomotive cockpit at night needs to be pretty dark? Sounds like a great way to see the dark rural sky. Even with pretty big telescopes under dark skies, for direct visual observation, people must get the eyes dark-adapted for several hours before being able to see some details of interest. The serious ones will shun houselights, streetlights, ordinary-brightness white flashlights. Put red filter screens over the laptop computers and if they need a light, use very dim red flashlights. It isn't completely crazy. Full dark adaptation really does improve what you can see and full dark adaptation can take quite awhile. Assuming you are not near a city and the air itself ain't lit up like a christmas tree.

I'm not a serious amateur astronomer. I mainly enjoy gadgets and enjoy occasionally looking at stuff in the sky. Don't have the memory or interest to memorize the precise name and location of everything in the sky. The "overall ideas" are more interesting than the trivia.

Edited March 8, 2012 by Lester Weevils

[R_Bert]

Dangit.

I read a whole stack of magazines last night....now I gotta start over.

Been looking for my glasses. they are not in the refrigerator.....

[Guest 6.8 AR]

The modern locomotive is actually too bright and if I sit in a siding for a long time,

the screens get covered up.

I know I've commented on the "political" aspect of some of our modern day science,

but usually when it appears to have gone off the reservation like the Al Gore science.

You and I both know how skewed things can get when a politician gets involved. But I

have always been interested in anything scientific otherwise, and pure, unadulterated

scientific inquiry has value in society.

Interesting comments about this solar flare stuff. It's mostly something I have never looked

into. I always enjoy your observations. I usually learn something. Pretty good for an old

fart like me.

[kieefer]

http://www.nasa.gov/...30712-X5-4.html

cool

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-superFlares.html

.

Edited March 9, 2012 by kieefer