Give me a historical example of a SHTF.

[poak]

LA riots of '92?

[bigwakes]

no big deal there. Haiti being an island is not threat to us.

Not in terms of a threat to us, but theirs has hit the fan.

[Caster]

The day my mother first heard the word's "It's a boy"

[Guest pfries]

:)

[mav]

Obama winning the election in 2008?

Seriously. I would say the Black Death pandemic in the 14th century.

[china coaster]

The fall of Saigon!

[Guest db99wj]

My first thought also, of something that actually happened where people armed themselves to protect their homes from looters.

The New Madrid fault was the first thing that came to mind as a SHTF scenario that could happen without warning; it could happen tomorrow. Imagine what it would be like if Memphis was left without power or fresh water and the entire areas infrastructure was destroyed. No fire, Medical, Police.

For days or weeks you could be on your own trying to survive.

Mother Nature is tougher and can act faster than any threat we have.

A major catastrophic earthquake here in Memphis is something that is definitely a potential SHTF scenario and zombie attack. Depending on where you live, you might be completely cut off from getting outside of the "loop" due to a river, creek, and a river, with multipe other creeks that would cause problems. In other words, you will have to cross a bridge to get out, if there are no bridges, you are not getting out except on foot. Zombies, not the undead, but the "have not's" in any urban area will come out from their homes to seek out the "have's" and try to take there stuff. Without support services, it will be a "fend for yourselves" society until support structures are restored. This will be a region wide event, so the first responders that are local are going to be having the same problems and their first priority, it would be mine, is that their own families are safe and secure before they go out and help others. Sorry if that comes off wrong or insensitive or in the face of what our first responders do, but in a region wide catastrophe, it will effect them and their own. It is and will be human nature to take care of yourself first, then help others. LIke the oxygen mask that comes down in the airplane, "Put yours on first, then help your neighbor".

Again, this thread reminds me, need more ammo.

[Bubba0031]

The movie "Red Dawn" although fictitious depicts a SHTF sitution as did the CBS show "Jericho".

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Perhaps at least two classifications, Short Emergencies and Long Emergencies?

Katrina was a good example of a short emergency, though it has stretched into what one might characterize as a long emergency for the people trying to rebuild and get back to pre-katrina normal? Not the worst-imaginable long emergency, but on the other hand New Orleans still ain't got back to normal after several years?

Maybe the short emergencies are easiest to plan for? Just hold out until the calvary arrives? Or evacuate for awhile then move back and start cleaning up? Given some preparedness, a short emergency could mainly depend on one's own family or cooperation with the nearest neighbors?

Some aspects of the Argentina long emergency seem possibly applicable to a future USA bad economic collapse. Numerous community organizations arose which would hold civic meetings on street corners, to address problems of people in the neighborhood forclosed/evicted, shortages of essentials, law-and-order in the neighborhood. Many neighborhoods organized to take up the slack when the wheels fell off the big system. USA folk are not community-minded nowadays, but in a long emergency it might be necessary to become community-minded in order to keep things as normal as possible? That would be a different slant on "community organizing".

Another interesting development-- Many factories and other businesses shut down with the owners gone bankrupt, some preserving remaining wealth by investing their funds offshore. There were instances of laid-off workers colonizing the shut-down business-- Re-open the factory and operate it as an employee co-op to provide continued work and income. Some owners tried to evict workers from the shut-down property and sometimes not. Locking out willing workers from a biz one can't keep open any longer, might be a "dog in the manger" thang? It sounds like a situation where the lines get blurred between "conservative capitalist" versus "socialist collective". On one hand it obviously violates the core of property rights but on the other hand people have to eat and working for a small income beats heck out of marauding hordes.

It would be weird indeed in the USA if it got so bad that ferinstance a small-town southern textile mill shuts down but then the locals take over the mill, re-open, and continue making socks. If things got bad enough maybe it would make sense? It would be bad for people to take over a working enterprise from the owner, but OTOH in some situations maybe not crazy to co-opt an "abandoned" resource? Either poop or get off the pot.

Kunstler has written extensively on his vision of the future long emergency.

The Long Emergency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Kunstler's crystal ball might be cracked and his prognostications ultimately flawed. In addition, Kunstler is somewhat a liberal doom-and-gloom feller who sees the solutions different than I like. On the other hand, in the case of that kind of future, not all of what he writes is BS. Planning for survival of a locality, relying on organization of the community for the benefit of the community, relying mostly on local resources. Whether one is conservative or liberal, if the wheels come off the system it does come down to keeping the hometown working as good as possible.

https://sites.google.com/site/longemergencyplan/

[Spook]

Historically, the worst have been war-related. Atlanta and Richmond in the Civil War, Stalingrad, Sarajevo, Bahgdad. Bringing war to the people, especially in major urban centers, means desperate times ahead.

Our biggest nemesis today, as already pointed out, is our utter, naked dependence on the power grid. I'm not too worried about hyperinflation or an economic depression. Those take years to develop, and the worst you're going to see is maybe an uptick in crime. I'm thinking of a sudden, virtually overnight event. Could be natural or man-made. Would almost certainly be isolated to a specific area. Not sure how realistic a sudden nationwide shutdown is, like in One Second After. I doubt it would be EMP. Maybe a cyberattack? Maybe some kind of airborne superbug? I'm more worried about an earthquake, tornado, or killer ice storm.

The cyber attack is increasingly worrisome to me. Our electrical grid, financial system, almost anything important to our safety and security you can imagine, is tied to "the network". Foreign countries have been "attacking" us for years and getting bolder all the time. Reports of attacks on the DoD networks are almost daily. Even if a foreign power did not want to overtake/conquer us, it would be a great blow to the U.S. if an effective cyper attack was successful. The impact could be severe. All the more reason to be prepared.

[Guest BungieCord]

In (near) chronological order, best as I can remember:

First Jewish-Roman War

Granada Massacre

First Crusade

Massacre of the Latins (Constantinople)

Cyprus massacre

St. Bartholomew's Day massacre

Yangzhou massacre

French Revolution

Massacre of Praga

Tripolitsa Massacre

Bleeding Kansas

Hamidian massacres

Batak Massacre

Jallianwala Bagh massacre

Dersim Massacre

Rape of Nanking

Parsley Massacre

Katyn Massacre

Odessa Massacre

Warsau Ghetto Uprising

Massacres of Volhynian Poles

Wola massacre

Battle of Athens (Tennessee)

India-Pakistan partitioning civil war

Bodo League massacre

Zanzibar Revolution

Khmer Rouge pogroms

Sabra and Shatila Massacre

Rwandan civil war

I only slightly ignored the "invasion by another country" rule because sometimes the slaughter continues even after the conquest is complete. Also, the slaughter of an altogether already subjugated peoples, or military action to put down a civil uprising, in my book, still ranks as a SHTF.

[Oh Shoot]

In (near) chronological order, best as I can remember:...

You put the Battle of Athens in there as a little jokie-poo? Small two day stand-off and there weren't even any fatalities.

- OS

[Guest WyattEarp]

SHTF scenario, seeing what happened in Tuscaloosa last April 27th with the big, violent EF-4, EF-5 tornadoes, happen here in the Nashville area in the middle of a work week, in the middle of the daym with a major outbreak of large, extremely violent tornadoes...that would be really bad. We were very lucky that day that the cooler air stayed up our way, and the warm front didn't advance to the north, otherwise, it would have been a whole different ball game that day and a lot worse than what it was.

i am pretty well worried about zombies. EMP's, nuke attacks. ice and weather, solar flares. You are all paranoid,

meh, why worry about what you have no control over? If I hear the Emergency Broadcast Warning and WW3 is impending with nukes leaving their silos, I'm taking a case of beer, my handgun and a rifle and a backpack full of ammunition and I'm gonna go sit on the highest building I can find, knock back a few cold one's, and pick off looters for fun, till the mushroom clouds go up.

[Guest pfries]

meh, why worry about what you have no control over? If I hear the Emergency Broadcast Warning and WW3 is impending with nukes leaving their silos, I'm taking a case of beer, my handgun and a rifle and a backpack full of ammunition and I'm gonna go sit on the highest building I can find, knock back a few cold one's, and pick off looters for fun, till the mushroom clouds go up.

Grab a pizza on the way, hate to have you get the shakes and waste ammo...

[Guest mustangdave]

Very interesting topic...though I am of the opinion no ONE "event" can cause a SHTF scenario...it would seem that a SHTF scenario tends to be a combination of smaller events that "connect" and cascades out of control...

[mcurrier]

Very interesting topic...though I am of the opinion no ONE "event" can cause a SHTF scenario...it would seem that a SHTF scenario tends to be a combination of smaller events that "connect" and cascades out of control...

In the not too distant future, we will call that 'Obama's Storm'