Qaddafi Looses Control Of Tripoli

[strickj]

Jubilant Rebels Control Much of Tripoli | HeraldTribune.com

Tripoli - his last strong hold - has been taken by rebels, two of his sons have been captured, and his Presidential Guard has surrendered.

Looks like it will not be too much longer until qadaffi is captured.

[Warbird]

If he's smart he has already fled with 3 or 4 tons of gold in tow, seeking asylum somewhere, likely Saudi. He is a very wealthy man. He still owns by recent information 2-3% of Fiat, making him the largest single shareholder there.

As with Egypt, Syria and other long dictator controlled countries, what replaces these tyrants remains to be seen and will liberty win out or a Iranian style theocracy. As we saw in Iran, which was not initially a wahabbist muslim rebellion, the Imams seized upon the opportunity and wrested control of the government. We all know what happened from there. Though the Shah was certainly a dictator, handed power after WWII, Iran was the most liberal government in the middle east and had been for centuries. When I say liberal, I mean liberal toward individual rights and freedoms. It had been for centuries as the persians had been a powerful and successful market driven people. These are interesting times.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Warbird

[MacGyver]

Let's hope someone will still take him. There was some question yesterday as to whether or not he was still in Tripoli, but his list of possible exile points has certainly shrunk in the last 4 months. I guess the Saudis would probably still take him. Idi Amin's old place is open, I suppose.

[Dolomite_supafly]

I wonder if anyone knows anything about the rebel leader?

I would hate to think we helped overthrow Qaddafi only to have an even crazier or radical person take over. Sometimes it is best to leave things be rather than open a box without knowing the contents. We will no doubt thow money at the new leader in hopes he will be our friend.

We removed Saddam and now we are into Iraq for billions and will be there for decades. Although he was a bad, bad man why do we, as a nation, feel the need to police the world. I wouldn't be so upset except it is the taxpayers that are footing the bill. In Iraq we are funding most of what is going on there while they continue to sell oil and fill their nation's coffers.

Dolomite

[MacGyver]

I wonder if anyone knows anything about the rebel leader?

There's not one, yet.

A lot of folks are worried about the power struggle that happens next. WSJ this morning reported some steps the rebels are taking to help ensure the transition is peaceful.

[E4 No More]

I wonder if anyone knows anything about the rebel leader?

I would hate to think we helped overthrow Qaddafi only to have an even crazier or radical person take over. Sometimes it is best to leave things be rather than open a box without knowing the contents. We will no doubt thow money at the new leader in hopes he will be our friend.

We removed Saddam and now we are into Iraq for billions and will be there for decades. Although he was a bad, bad man why do we, as a nation, feel the need to police the world. I wouldn't be so upset except it is the taxpayers that are footing the bill. In Iraq we are funding most of what is going on there while they continue to sell oil and fill their nation's coffers.

Dolomite

"Although he was a bad, bad man why do we, as a nation, feel the need to police the world."

We had the opposite approach after WWI, and it didn't work out too well for us.

I think the trick is being able to recognize a viable threat beforehand. That's hard as Bush can attest. If you're right you're a national hero; if you're wrong you get accused of being a liar by the political opposition.

[greenego]

Dictator that didn't like us gone, hopefully dead. Now what? Will we get a dictator that likes us? May depend on how much money we can pump into rebuilding the country. We are broke. European countries broke. The country that may be in the best position to take advantage of this is China. They have the money and they need the oil. China had a presents there before civil war started.

China in Africa: The Real Story: China and Libya: What's the Real Story?

[Jonnin]

What gets me about all this is the oil industry. I am not a trying to be a basher, but one does have to notice how a potential issue that never happens can raise gas prices instantly and keep them high for weeks while in this case the media reports that victory for the rebels is likely to cause a decrease in oil prices and gas and so on but we have not seen this decrease yet.... the price should drop on good news as fast as it rises on bad.

[Guest db99wj]

What gets me about all this is the oil industry. I am not a trying to be a basher, but one does have to notice how a potential issue that never happens can raise gas prices instantly and keep them high for weeks while in this case the media reports that victory for the rebels is likely to cause a decrease in oil prices and gas and so on but we have not seen this decrease yet.... the price should drop on good news as fast as it rises on bad.

Thought I saw where they have 2% of the oil in the world. Due to sanctions with Qaddafi, their oil has been worthless to us and the rest of the world. With him gone, the sanctions lifted, there is a new or increased stream of oil. Or something like that, it is Monday, I was half asleep when I heard them talking about this this morning. That or I just don't care anymore and was only about a quarter of the way listening.

Oh, also, the price drops on raw crude oil, not on current gas prices, that gas was already purchased at the higher prices and they won't start dropping them until that oil hits the market and hits the refineries thus lowering their costs.

I'm sick of the world and their problems. I like my little sheltered world and tired of hearing about the rest of them.

Edited August 22, 2011 by db99wj

[E4 No More]

I seem to recall it being reported that Libya produces light sweet crude oil that only France and a few others use.

[Guest db99wj]

I seem to recall it being reported that Libya produces light sweet crude oil that only France and a few others use.

I do remember them saying it was light sweet crude and only to a few countries.

well, this was only done because Bush......oh wait....that's not it, but I'm sure it is his fault somehow.

Boy, I've become a bit cynical today.

[Caster]

With any luck his getaway driver will take a wrong turn and they'll end up at a checkpoint in Israel

[Jonnin]

Oh, also, the price drops on raw crude oil, not on current gas prices, that gas was already purchased at the higher prices and they won't start dropping them until that oil hits the market and hits the refineries thus lowering their costs.

I understand what you said but if the reverse happened (something borked up the oil supply) the prices would increase THAT DAY even if it were bought under the lower prices of the day before. That was my point, really... it will take months for the 'price decrease to filter down' but it sure does not take months for it to trickle the other way...

[strickj]

I understand what you said but if the reverse happened (something borked up the oil supply) the prices would increase THAT DAY even if it were bought under the lower prices of the day before. That was my point, really... it will take months for the 'price decrease to filter down' but it sure does not take months for it to trickle the other way...

Google "oil speculation" and prepare to get pissed.

[MacGyver]

You know, back when I was on the Enron Task Force, we fired all their oil traders. Really, all of their traders. The thing is, they didn't just go away. They got jobs other places doing the same thing. Only, they took what they learned at Enron and learned from their mistakes.

[Dolomite_supafly]

Google "oil speculation" and prepare to get pissed.

+ 1 a billion.

The cost of oil and gas has nothing to do with actual costs it has to do with people trying to make money.

Water is the next big commodity that is going to be managed just like oil. It already is in some places. There is plenty of governmental agencies that can use their authority to influence the sale of water. Hell, we are already seeing it everyday. Government offices declaring well water unsafe and forcing homeowners to use city water, which for most people is worse than most well water. Or like what has happened in India. A Coca Cola water bottling plant has taken so much water that the ground wells are dry. The locals are forced to buy their water from the plant now.

And the thing with water is people can't live without it like they can with oil.

Dolomite

[Guest Lester Weevils]

I understand what you said but if the reverse happened (something borked up the oil supply) the prices would increase THAT DAY even if it were bought under the lower prices of the day before. That was my point, really... it will take months for the 'price decrease to filter down' but it sure does not take months for it to trickle the other way...

Yep. Some justified and some not. Dunno much about it.

If you own a gas station and do not make a fabulous profit-- Maybe you make more profit on coffee and moon pies than on gas--

If you see crude prices jump and expect your next shipment of gas to cost more-- If you want to pay for the next expensive shipment and you don't have a lot of cash on hand and can't or don't want to finance the next load-- Then it would be prudent to immediately raise the price of the less expensive stock on hand. You would make a big short-term profit until your tanks go dry. Then after you pay for the next tanker truck delivery all that short-term profit is gone again. The short-term extra profit only pays for the next tanker truck load and then you are back to the same place as before the price hike.

Running on a shoe-string, it would be smart to raise price on current stock if you expect a price hike.

In theory it ought to work the other way around. If you expect the price of the next shipment to be cheaper then maybe it would make some kind of sense to sell the current stock at a loss because the replacement shipment won't be as expensive.

But then what happens if prices don't go down as expected? You already sold the stock on hand at a loss but you still have to pay thru the nose for the next shipment!

It is probably prudent to raise prices on expected increases, but it is probably also prudent to wait for real price decreases before lowering your pump price.

[E4 No More]

I kind of get tired of people saying that you don't make that much money on oil/gas. True, the gas station owners don't make much money on gas, but people wouldn't be speculating in oil if there wasn't good money in it. That's just common sense.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Agreed the price is affected many places thru the supply chain. Future price expectations versus setting of current wholesale price "higher up the chain" may follow different rules versus the small-time gas station owner.

It is easy to see how the small gas station owner would be quicker to raise price than lower price. Only lower the price when the "bird is in hand" so to speak.

Maybe the rules would be different higher up the chain? But it is difficult to see any level of the chain being willing to cut profits to the bone on current product on the mere expectation that future prices will be lower? Maybe you are near-guaranteed a lower future price but then there is a revolution, hurricane, or refinery fire? It wouldn't seem prudent to lower price until you are actually paying lower price for raw material moving thru the production pipeline?

[E4 No More]

Agreed the price is affected many places thru the supply chain. Future price expectations versus setting of current wholesale price "higher up the chain" may follow different rules versus the small-time gas station owner.

It is easy to see how the small gas station owner would be quicker to raise price than lower price. Only lower the price when the "bird is in hand" so to speak.

Maybe the rules would be different higher up the chain? But it is difficult to see any level of the chain being willing to cut profits to the bone on current product on the mere expectation that future prices will be lower? Maybe you are near-guaranteed a lower future price but then there is a revolution, hurricane, or refinery fire? It wouldn't seem prudent to lower price until you are actually paying lower price for raw material moving thru the production pipeline?

I knew the owner of the Amoco in the town of which I was a police officer and I asked him about pricing. He told me that he was obligated to following the pricing as dictated by Amoco; not of his own choosing. Perhaps that's dependent on his agreement, because Kimbo Oil here in the Nashville area has different prices even when their stations are in the same jurisdictions, (meaining the taxes are the same).