CHANGE?

[VERO1]

So hows that change working out for everybody? DOW only dumped 500+ points today. I am not suree my retirement account can handle much more change!

[mikegideon]

The dow can drop 500 points when a goat farts. There was no change. Washington is what it has always been.

[Guest RobThatsMe]

+1 Vero

Well, we can surely thank the politicians for playing games with this whole debt issue, and the stock market reflects this. All you hear about on the news is how terrible things are, and it's scaring everyone again. This marks the 11th day of big losses in the market. We're back to the levels that we saw in 2008. Very scary. Looks the SHTF may be coming sooner than we think.

It also kinda strange that many of the big corporations are reporting very good numbers 1/2 way into the year.

Is it really as bad as the media is making it out to be?

I'd like to throw them all outta Washington, and get some folks in that are focused on America and not their political parties.

I gotta stop checking my 401K, else I'll end up in the hospital again.

[kieefer]

Expect the next emergency to be of lack revenues, I can hear it now, "We can't pull ourselves out of this Bush economy without raising taxes".

We might be able to survive till 2012, it's really hard to say.

Edited August 4, 2011 by kieefer

[Guest TresOsos]

Wasn't the debt ceiling deal suppose to prevent this, Big Gov and the Banksters will screw ya coming and going.

[Guest HvyMtl]

Nah, this is a "reaction" to the European and Asian markets. They (European Union) bailed out 3 countries already (Greece, Portugal and Ireland) and need to bail out two more (Italy - which seems will fail, even if bailed out - and Spain.) The Debt Ceiling was merely icing on the cake.

Oh, and the politics of the Debt Ceiling is this: Arguably, the GOP does not want Obama in office, so they made sure the economy soured, by holding out on the debt ceiling as long as was practical.

Simple politics, the one in the White House gets the blame, no matter who is actually responsible.

Reality is this: Start two wars and lower taxes. Before then, most of the time the US has gone to war, taxes were raised to cover the expense. I do not believe there was a lowering of taxes during any other war in the history of the US.

Keep the tax cuts, and continue the spending. Hmm. Not surprising we are in this mess... Had they (both parties) been wise, when they passed the continuance of the tax cuts, they then should have cut spending. Neither side pushed to do so.

George Washington was right. The party system we have in this nation is bad for the Country.

[Links2k]

The dow can drop 500 points when a goat farts. There was no change. Washington is what it has always been.

YES SIR! ALWAYS!

[Guest TresOsos]

Nah, this is a "reaction" to the European and Asian markets. They (European Union) bailed out 3 countries already (Greece, Portugal and Ireland) and need to bail out two more (Italy - which seems will fail, even if bailed out - and Spain.) The Debt Ceiling was merely icing on the cake.

Oh, and the politics of the Debt Ceiling is this: Arguably, the GOP does not want Obama in office, so they made sure the economy soured, by holding out on the debt ceiling as long as was practical.

Simple politics, the one in the White House gets the blame, no matter who is actually responsible.

Reality is this: Start two wars and lower taxes. Before then, most of the time the US has gone to war, taxes were raised to cover the expense. I do not believe there was a lowering of taxes during any other war in the history of the US.

Keep the tax cuts, and continue the spending. Hmm. Not surprising we are in this mess... Had they (both parties) been wise, when they passed the continuance of the tax cuts, they then should have cut spending. Neither side pushed to do so.

George Washington was right. The party system we have in this nation is bad for the Country.

Oh and lets not forget TARP and the Stimulus, QE1 and QE2 and tripling the budget deficet you first year in office.

We should really call this "Obama's Birthday Surpirse to America".

[Links2k]

I'd like to throw them all outta Washington, and get some folks in that are focused on America and not their political parties

.

I think that we have sent people to Washington with good intentions in the past, but when they get in the spotlight and start receiving all of those perks/bribes it all becomes about them and not the country. Just my two cents.

[Links2k]

We might be able to survive till 2012, it's really hard to say.

We will survive. Those guys in Washington won't do anything to that will hurt THEMSELVES long term.

[Links2k]

Nah, this is a "reaction" to the European and Asian markets. They (European Union) bailed out 3 countries already (Greece, Portugal and Ireland) and need to bail out two more (Italy - which seems will fail, even if bailed out - and Spain.) The Debt Ceiling was merely icing on the cake.

Oh, and the politics of the Debt Ceiling is this: Arguably, the GOP does not want Obama in office, so they made sure the economy soured, by holding out on the debt ceiling as long as was practical.

Simple politics, the one in the White House gets the blame, no matter who is actually responsible.

Reality is this: Start two wars and lower taxes. Before then, most of the time the US has gone to war, taxes were raised to cover the expense. I do not believe there was a lowering of taxes during any other war in the history of the US.

Keep the tax cuts, and continue the spending. Hmm. Not surprising we are in this mess... Had they (both parties) been wise, when they passed the continuance of the tax cuts, they then should have cut spending. Neither side pushed to do so.

George Washington was right. The party system we have in this nation is bad for the Country.

I agree, but these opinions are not very popular.

[mikegideon]

We had a balanced budget. In fact, it was a surplus. So... they changed a bunch of stuff, and can't figure out how to balance the budget. Sorriest bunch of people in the history of the world.

[Guest RobThatsMe]

While it's true that Europe had some play in the market today, (Italy, and Spain bailouts), The last 10 days of our govt again showing how they can't play well together also had a major influence, and is reflected in the market drop for the last 10 days.

Just wait until they announce the new Jobless Rate numbers tomorrow! Ughhhhh.

Edited August 5, 2011 by RobThatsMe

[NRA]

The only change I got is what is left in my pocket

[Guest Lester Weevils]

We had a balanced budget. In fact, it was a surplus. So... they changed a bunch of stuff, and can't figure out how to balance the budget. Sorriest bunch of people in the history of the world.

It is unavoidable and if we ever get close to balance in the future it will happen again.

In the 2000 election both Gore and Bush were laying out new ambitious plans to spend all that surplus money on the horizon, when what was actually on the horizon was an internet bubble bursting right during the election, and 9/11 not long after.

If we ever see budget daylight in the future they will do the same dumb thing again. Hopeless spendaholics. Maybe it is an itegral part of our culture.

[Mark@Sea]

Holding out on raising the debt ceiling soured the economy? Really?

Well that blows my whole theory that the promise of greater energy costs, redistribution of income, more intrusive regulation, greater costs per employee (a la obamacare), inflationary fears, and fiscal instability due to unprecedented government spending in the last couple of years had anything to do with it. It was the Republicans - I should have known......

Edited August 5, 2011 by Mark@Sea

[Rightwinger]

[zapfbroad]

Lets just have some actual competency based interviews for people to ensure they understand basic economics before we give them the keys to the vaults and the hand-trucks.... if that fails lets just go back to.....

[h=1]Strange Women Lying in Ponds and Distributing Swords as a Government System[/h]

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Lets just have some actual competency based interviews for people to ensure they understand basic economics before we give them the keys to the vaults and the hand-trucks.... if that fails lets just go back to.....

[h=1]Strange Women Lying in Ponds and Distributing Swords as a Government System[/h]

The problem with competency tests is that somebody has to create the test.

If Nobel Prize Winning Perfessor Paul Krugman and his friends create the test then Obama passes with flying colors. Bernanke would pass a test created by ANY economist because he has extensive knowledge of all the theories regardless of his real world performance.

40 years ago took a civil service test for social worker and most of the questions were a matter of opinion rather than fact. The answers expected by the test were frequently not the "best answer". However, I aced the test because I was aware of which matter-of-opinion answers the test wanted. It was not necessary to believe the answers to regurgitate the wrong answers which the test was gonna score as correct.

A bright commie could pass a test created by Thomas Sowell in the same fashion. He would be smart enough to give the answer in terms of "the gospel according to Sowell" regardless whether he believes them to be the correct answers.

[Guest nicemac]

We have to keep in mind (and most people don't) that tax cuts do not mean less revenue. It has been proven time and time again that reducing taxes can stimulate growth and actually increase revenue.

Cutting spending always means more available revenue. Always.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

We have to keep in mind (and most people don't) that tax cuts do not mean less revenue. It has been proven time and time again that reducing taxes can stimulate growth and actually increase revenue.

Cutting spending always means more available revenue. Always.

I love tax cuts but they are just another keynsian stimulus. The economy has become immune to keynsian stimulus, much as it did in the 1970's stagflation. The Bush tax cuts were good for a 5 year bubble. Then there were multiple large one-shot tax cuts trying to avoid the 2008 disaster, which had no effect at all except to help people buy lots of chinese TV's from Walmart.

If the near-past cuts didn't help, then I don't see how another one will do any better.

Maybe some tax cuts could help better, such as corporate or capital gains. But it is far from a foregone conclusion that they would work.

It isn't impossible we could expend all our bullets and still have a slow economy. After the interest rate is zero and the tax rate is zero and we still have high unemployment, what do we do then?

But sure, cut my tax. I don't mind.

edit-- Ferinstance this entire year we have been running a 16 percent tax cut on social security, a tax that generates about 40 percent of fed revenues, and the effect has been exactly zero, zilch, nada.

Edited August 5, 2011 by Lester Weevils

[Guest nicemac]

Why no just tax a flat 90% then? That would take care of all of our budget issues. Maybe 95%? Revenues would soar!

Just raising taxes won't increase revenue because you hit a point where excessive taxes become counterproductive. We passed that point long ago.

Cutting spending ALWAYS reduces the amount of money needed to run a household/ business/ government.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Why no just tax a flat 90% then? That would take care of all of our budget issues. Maybe 95%? Revenues would soar!

Just raising taxes won't increase revenue because you hit a point where excessive taxes become counterproductive. We passed that point long ago.

Cutting spending ALWAYS reduces the amount of money needed to run a household/ business/ government.

Hi nicemac

I don't think a tax hike will especially help either. Though my opinion and a dollar will buy a cup of coffee. Maybe they would raise the price of the coffee if it had to be bundled with my opinion.

Dunno what will help. Reduce regulations and spending maybe. No guarantee. Fat chance in the near term.

Can't fight a new war with an old war's strategy, but the cure to 1970's stagflation was Fed Reserve chief Paul Volcker cranking down the screws so hard that it tortured the economy and threw lots of people out of their houses and into bankruptcy court. Lots of people thought he was nuts torturing us so bad when the economy was already on its knees. At the time I thought Volcker might be Satan's assistant.

Just sayin the cure to our current situation may not be intuitively obvious. And it MAY be that the stagflation just magically disappeared and Volcker's actions had nothing to do with it. We can't run comparative experiments with the same conditions to find out.

Volcker was one of Obama's advisors and as best I know he didn't recommend the same bitter medicine this time around. Maybe as an old man he feels guilty for all the temporary pain he caused. Of maybe he felt the current situation demanded a different surgery.

The economy just follows cycles. IMO the best thing to do is keep our hands off the controls and hope the economy cures itself. This over-steer for decades is killing us. Politicians just can't keep their fingers off the knobs long enough to let the system settle.

The economy is like a complicated multiple feedback system with long time constants up to decades. Some ignoramus tweaks the wrong knob today and the economy goes nuts years in the future. It is not a controllable system so about all we should do is leave it be.

Edited August 5, 2011 by Lester Weevils

[Guest 6.8 AR]

Lester, the economy doesn't just follow cycles, Those

cycles are caused by the changes in economic policy

and people's confidence in the economic system. It

gets manipulated far too often by the wrong people,

like the Fed. Their tweaks have been proven historically

to make those cycles exacerbated and people's

confidence in our elected officials, caused by their

actions, go up and down frequently. Mostly down

as of late. Hoping is the worst thing to do. It means

we don't have effective, conservative leadership.

This hope and change is all about destroying our

country.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Lester, the economy doesn't just follow cycles, Those

cycles are caused by the changes in economic policy

and people's confidence in the economic system. It

gets manipulated far too often by the wrong people,

like the Fed. Their tweaks have been proven historically

to make those cycles exacerbated and people's

confidence in our elected officials, caused by their

actions, go up and down frequently. Mostly down

as of late. Hoping is the worst thing to do. It means

we don't have effective, conservative leadership.

This hope and change is all about destroying our

country.

Thanks 6.8 AR

I don't disagree that gov affects the economy. Many factors affect the economy. There have been economic cycles throughout recorded history. Partially influenced by govs but never "under the control" of govs. Simply because you can ride a bull for awhile does not imply that you are steering the bull.

I know you don't much like wikipedia, but here are some not-bad links--

Business cycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The list of recessions is fascinating. The recessions of 1815–1821 and 1873–1879 were pretty long and tough. I count 24 recessions in the 100 years between 1800 and 1900, though some seem to start immediately after the previous one ended.

The gov back then tried to modulate the recessions because politicians never do well when the voters are upset. The link to the Panic of 1819 is interesting because the proposed fixes (which no one could agree on, just like today) are nearly identical to proposed fixes we hear today.

Proposed remedies included:

increase of tariffs (largely proposed by Northern manufacturing interests).

reduction of tariffs (largely proposed by Southerners, who believed free trade would stimulate the economy and increase demand).

monetary expansion; i.e., restriction or suspension of specie payment.

rigid enforcement of specie payment.

restriction of bank credit.

direct relief of debtors.

public works proposals.

stricter enforcement of anti-usury laws.

Even the flaming libtards of 1819 were conservative enough to make modern republicans look like commies. So it is interesting how little has changed in nearly 200 years.

====

There seems no objective way to determine the ideal setting of all the control knobs. But because the economy is self-adjusting and people find their optimum solutions regardless of the exact rules of the game, I think as long as the knobs are at reasonable default settings it would overall work out OK. Just set em at reasonable defaults and weld those suckers down. Then weld armor plate over the control panel. Just get everybody accustomed to the idea that there will be good times and there will be bad times.

A balanced federal budget would seem an essential part of the optimum default settings, but there are many ways to design a balanced budget so it isn't a trivial problem.

The economy is a resonant system and it has numerous long time constants. For instance, when you tap a bell it will ring a long time. That is called the impulse response. It is not a linear system. If you tap hard you get a different impulse response than if you tap lightly. If you make multiple taps then the bell can respond radically different depending on the timing of the taps. Even with something as simple as a bell you can't precisely predict what will happen.

Every time some idiot in government (from either party) changes the knob settings with new laws, it is just like tapping that bell, and the economy will ring for years before it settles from the change. They just keep whacking that thang at random and there is unpredictable hell to pay from every new tweak.

====

You as a locomotive jockey are an expert on long-latency control systems. Them locomotives don't start or stop on a dime. It is doubtful I could get the hang of it.

Steering the economy would be like you trying to control the train thru a very long delay line. It is difficult enough to run the train anyway. But try driving the train with a 1 day delay line. Advance the throttle at 2 pm today, and the engine revs up at 2 pm tomorrow. Hit the brakes at 2:15 today and the brakes go on at 2:15 tomorrow. I bet you could drive the train from Nashville to Chattanooga anyway with a little luck, but it would be a challenge. Now try driving the train from Nashvegas to Chatttown thru a 1 year delay line. Or a 10 year delay line.

That is why I don't think we should tweak the controls very much or very drastically on the economy, but the controls ought to be set to reasonable defaults, whatever that may be. Once we decide reasonable defaults, it would seem wisest to ever so gradually nudge the controls to the new settings, rather than all of a sudden. Otherwise we will get unpredictable wild oscillations.

Edited August 5, 2011 by Lester Weevils
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