Was it a Chinese missile? What are your thoughts

[Guest trigem]

Edited December 3, 2010 by trigem

[Guest mustangdave]

Do a search for Chinese NAVAL Order of Battle...they have a few NUKE boats...but the bulk of their sub fleet are old Russian Romeo Class diesel boats...no way they could travel clandestinely from China to off our coast without being detected. The area where the missile was sighted is a Naval Exclusion Zone...where our 2nd Fleet does a lot of war gaming in preparation for deployment to the Western Pacific...I'm thinking it was a HUGE oops by one of our boys...but I'm just an old swabbie...who knows what really happened

[Curiousgb]

Had to be North Korean.

[Guest mustangdave]

Had to be North Korean.

Not very likely...their capabilities from a submarine perspective is even more limited than China's...but it coulda been a Korean missile...

[MacGyver]

I'm pretty sure we can hear those old Soviet Whiskey classes they're using when they start them up in Mayang-do.

[Guest coldblackwind]

Cmon guys, haven't you ever see down periscope? If it's in a movie, it MUST be possible!

[Curiousgb]

I am pretty sure I was joking. I have been retired for a while but I suspect our ASW skills are just as good if not better than when I was in.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

All the data about this contrail or missile is internet hearsay as far as I would ever know, and so it is impossible to make a firm opinion. It would be like making a firm opinion about Mother Goose or Harry Potter.

Am most inclined to think it is a jet contrail photographed under unusual conditions.

Some conflicting data is a few people who ought to know a lot about it, who look at the video and are adamant it is a missile and not a jet. One guy from Jane's Defense was saying the contrail on the video is much too dirty to be anything except a poorly-refined solid fuel booster. He said USA solid fuel boosters are not that dirty, and jets are not that dirty. General McInerney on Fox News said it was definitely a missile launch, that he had seen enough of them to know.

Guys like that may be just embarrassing themselves in public with their ignorance. Even experts can publicly embarrass themselves. OTOH they know more about it than I do.

On the other side there are rocket scientists who claim they have personally seen jet contrails that look just like the video. One guy said he was once a few miles from white sands, and saw one coming from the direction of white sands. He assumed it was a rocket for a couple of minutes until it got close enough to be obvious that it was a horizontal jet coming from over the horizon, rather than a vertical rocket.

But on the sub-launch aspect-- I don't have time to look up references, but a few years ago globalsecurity.org and others were talking about Pakistan buying modern-day advanced small diesel subs from France, where the engines are rubber-mounted and soundproofed, extremely quiet electric motors, etc. The articles claimed that these modern non-nuclear subs are quieter and harder to detect than nuclear subs. It was saying that third-world nuclear nations with such subs is a bad thing because they are difficult to detect.

Germany also supposedly makes such modern diesel subs for sale to smaller nations. I think I read that Iran and other "bad actors" have been buying or building such craft.

If any of that is real, then Pakistan, Iran or N. Korea might be more likely than China, if on the off chance it really was a 'shot off the bow'?

[exiton]

I read a news article that it was confirmed to be a passenger jet. I think a civilian figured it out by watching at the same time on another night for a similar trail.

[Guest Lester Weevils]

I read a news article that it was confirmed to be a passenger jet. I think a civilian figured it out by watching at the same time on another night for a similar trail.

If you have way too much time on your hands, these links are an interesting read. They are three consecutive blogs, and the first link was the clearest exposition of the jet contrail explanation early on, a couple of days before the govt borrowed this opinion and wrote it off as definitely a contrail.

A Problem of Perspective – New Year’s Eve Contrail - Contrail Science

Contrails are Usually Horizontal - Contrail Science

Los Angeles Missile Contrail Explained in Pictures - Contrail Science

The writer makes a good case. However, sometimes reasonable sounding explanations are wrong regardless of logical appearance.

All I'm sayin, is that I know NOTHING of this matter other than internet and TV hearsay. I don't have sufficient information or experience to take a firm opinion either way.

The comments are fascinating, if you have nothing better to do. If the comments don't automatically show at the bottom of the articles, click the comments button at the top-right of each page.

It isn't so much the logical arguments in the comments. It is just psychologically interesting that so many folks who just saw a little piece of bad video on TV or internet-- Some are ADAMANT that it is an airplane. Some are ADAMANT that it is a missile. They may (or may not) have good arguments, but they don't really even know for sure that the original video is not a computerized fake. The commenters do not have sufficient information to be so smug in their opinions. At least in my opinion.

[Curiousgb]

I used to hunt Vandenberg quite a bit. They had lots of missles. And there is a sub base in San Diego...................who knows.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

The only evidence I have to compare that exhaust to is missile launches on TV, like on Military Channel,

NGEO, History Channel. There is no doubt, based on what I compare to, that it is a missile exhaust trail

and I have never seen any airplane contrail come close to it.

Now to the who. I would buy into it being Chinese before the rest of the crowd, except that it could

have been a launch by us in some exercise, but that doesn't seem to be the case. The Chinese are at

odds with us and our fiscal policy. The timing of that launch and the timing of our dear Federal Reserve

may have something in common. I'm not sure about the timeline with the qualitative easing. Was it

before or after the launch? We all know China isn't very happy with us and they are getting anxious

about all the strains it is causing their situation. Not that I really care what the ChiComs think of us,

I think it has a lot to do with Obama's and the Fed's fiscal policy. It makes sense to me, anyway.

I really doubt it could be Iran or North Korea. Iran doing something like this would give Israel an opportunity

to strike them, if we didn't counter first. I still doubt if North Korea could get a sub by our Jonesy's out

in the Pacific. Our subs have the best ears available.

Russia. I doubt it would have been them.

[Guest Sgt. Joe]

I think Lester says it best in that we have no way of ever knowing for sure.

What I do know is that I grew up on Air Force bases and most of that was near the one in the backyard of KSC. I have seen airplanes of all types all of my life and watched the launches of all sorts of rockets and missiles from the Gemini, Apollo and Shuttle launches on the KSC side to the the Delta, Saturn, Titan and Atlas missiles on the Air Force side to just name a few. And also several types of missiles launched from the submarines based nearby Port Canaveral.

From what I see in the video (which as Lester correctly says we can not even be sure is real) What I see looks to me to be a sub or surface ship launched missile.

What it really was or who launched it I have no clues.

I would IMO lean more to it being a mistake launch or even a test by one of our own rather than any one else popping off shots to intimidate us, that part seems the biggest stretch to me. Of everything an airplane seems most unlikely to me and it being anything else is a good reason for our Govt. to lie to us about it. (like they need a reason:rolleyes:)

In the end someone knows for sure what it was but we sure dont.

And just like Lester I find it rather humorous that some are so sure it was an airplane and others are so sure that it was a missile. I have seen quite a lot of both and still really dont have a clue, but rather just an opinion.

And I figure that is all we are all ever going to have.

[Smith]

My initial thought before all the hoopla was China. I still think that was probably who it was. Either that or somebody accidentally hit the wrong button!

My reason for China is that they are known to run subs in the general areas of the International Zone and have been probing our computer systems for awhile now. Wouldn't surprise me to find out they made a sneak run into a closer area and shot a test missile off.

As to the comments about hearing their diesel subs, I'm told from knowledgeable Navy folks that the Diesel subs are quieter than the the big modern nuke subs when running quiet.

[Chief07]

I think it was China telling Obama were here, and you won't do anything about it.

There is no way our intellegence service dosen't know who, what it was.

The news reports just made us look weak and foolish.

2012 can't come soon enough.

[buck1032]

I have been retired for a while but I suspect our ASW skills are just as good if not better than when I was in.

When did you retire? I retired in 05 and I spent my 20 years in HS and HSL communities and you would be surprised and disappointed at how much the USN's ASW capabilities have been cut back and eroded.

I have no idea one way or the other about that the contrail was. Not enough info to make a decent guess. No matter what it is, we will never know for sure what and who it was.

[vontar]

I know shortly after this event I know I read that the pilot that filmed this I believe said he watched it for several minutes, almost 10 minutes. A missile would be traveling to fast to watch it for 10 minutes unless that was a cover story after the fact.

As to the comments about hearing their diesel subs, I'm told from knowledgeable Navy folks that the Diesel subs are quieter than the the big modern nuke subs when running quiet.

I have heard the same, as for a diesel everything can be turned off, but the nuclear subs have to keep the reactor and cooling systems running at least on low. They are shielded and insulated for sound as good as they can be, however they still make some noise.

However, The diesel's still have to get from point A to B, either by surface diesel power, just below surface with diesel and a snorkel, or as they did in WW2 run surface of the night and electric underwater during the day. However while moving they all make noise, even the Nuclear ones.

I know but I can't think of the exact name of the system the US Navy has in the pacific ocean to passively listen for subs, but they is a network of underwater headphones that we used to monitor the Russian subs during the cold war.

[Guest 6.8 AR]

SOSUS in the Atlantic, maybe the same thing in

the Pacific.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Curiousgb]

When did you retire? I retired in 05 and I spent my 20 years in HS and HSL communities and you would be surprised and disappointed at how much the USN's ASW capabilities have been cut back and eroded.

I have no idea one way or the other about that the contrail was. Not enough info to make a decent guess. No matter what it is, we will never know for sure what and who it was.

It was 10 years ago. But I wouldn't be surprised that we let those skills erode. I think with the sinking of the S. Korean ship it may start to be more important.

[Guest mustangdave]

Yews Curiousgb...I retired 13 years ago...I can see where things probably have been allowed to degrade in effectiveness...and yes its SOSUS in the pacific as well...listening 'devices" at just about all the major choke points in the pacific rim.

[DaveTN]

From someone that worked on a Sub Tender (USS Holland AS-32)…

The advantage of a nuke boat is not stealth; Diesel boats could be quieter.

A Navy sub couldn’t launch a missile accidently 30 years ago; I doubt that has changed.

For those that think the Chinese or the North Koreans launched a missile… what do you think their intent was?

I haven’t looked at the links here but I saw some of the stories when it happened.

Private Citizens have the ability to launch a missile. Here is a picture of Mike Melvill (First private Citizen Astronaut) taking SpaceShipOne into space.

[Guest bkelm18]

I have heard the same, as for a diesel everything can be turned off, but the nuclear subs have to keep the reactor and cooling systems running at least on low. They are shielded and insulated for sound as good as they can be, however they still make some noise.

Nuclear boats can still run on batteries. I forget which class of sub it is but the reactor can be cooled without using the coolant pumps. Natural circulation I think it was called. I worked in the nuclear plant on a carrier. Nothing quiet about those.