SHTF

[Guest db99wj]

Very likely in Memphis scenario. Direct hit from massive tornado, rips through the Memphis, earthquake, Rodney King style chaos. If all systems shut down, I would do my best to get out of town, to my moms house. Rural area in northwest TN. We have a enough food for a few days just in our pantry and frige/freezers. We have a disaster kit that can give us another week or so in food and water. Need to add to that. Always need more ammo, 12ga and .223/5.56. Need to keep a little more fuel on hand.

Biggest problem is an earthquake. If that happens, all bridges around Memphis are going to be destroyed to some level. Getting out of Memphis, will be difficult, due to the rivers/creeks (Noncohnna) that run basically on the South side, along I-240 and the river (Wolf River) that runs along the north side of I-240. The inner city "have not's" will be coming out to the "have's" and we have to be prepared. If earthquake happens, I need to find out first if any access over the river is open. I do have my Jeep/4wd, while this can't get me through the river, the bridge that fell, might add enough surface to cross, depending on water height of course, usually it is fairly low. Unlikly, but I got to do what I can to get over that river to get out and at least get out of the 240 loop. Depending on the size of the earthquake, where centered etc, even if I am able to cross that one, I have two more rivers, Forked Deer and Loosahatchie to cross before I could get to my mothers house. We are 100 miles away. Could walk but would prove difficult with children.

So in summary, under most disaster scenarios, I'm staying put, until support services come in, due to it only being a regional event. If it is a national breakdown of society, I'll be gone, quickly and armed.

Hmm, need order more ammo.

[Oh Shoot]

Very likely in Memphis scenario. .....Biggest problem is an earthquake

If the New Madrid does its thing again similar to 1812, what's left of Memphis may well be flotsam passing by New Orleans.

- OS

[strickj]

We hear constant talk around here about preparing for SHTF.

What is that situation in which you would need to leave everything you own, your entire life, etc., etc. and flee to some other "safe" place?

Define SHTF.

Natural disaster.

If for some fetched nuclear attack....well, I would hope I would go in the first blast.

I sure as hell don't want to be around for the after effects.

If for some fetched societal failure or Red Dawn type situation....well, I would hope it wouldn't reach me here in the outskirts, but if it did, my neighbors and myself would fend off the the first wave of urban and/or Ruskie zombies. Here where I live, they won't let you in unless you have a closet full of guns and a wife-beater so I think we'll be ok.

I also still plan to bunker down in the closest WalMart should such an even occur.

I will also be willing to trade luxuries like toilet paper for things like procreation.

[mikegideon]

If the New Madrid does its thing again similar to 1812, what's left of Memphis may well be flotsam passing by New Orleans.

- OS

They have known about it for a long time. One thing I noticed driving around the Memphis interstates... there is safety cabling on the overpass spans to prevent them from slipping off their piers in the event of an earthquake. The seizmic zone goes all the way to Jackson. i put up a fairly tall tower there, and the city engineer required that it be designed for a seismic zone.

Sorry for rambling. I didn't work on any structural projects in Memphis, but I'm guessing it has been built into the commercial building codes for years.

[Mike.357]

all of it is bad news.

My worry is not me and what I can do, but what will I do with two small grandkids, a wife who is not hiking very far any time soon and a daughter who is not going to be of any use. Am I to think only of myself and bail out? Not likely.

We keep enough food for a few weeks in the house, but without electricity anything fresh or frozen is going to be spoiled rather quickly. I know where I can get water at, provided it is not under armed guard that will allow no access. A few 20 lb cans of propane are not going to last very long.

And if masses of crazed townies make it my way I can only shoot so many before I get swarmed over or someone better armed gets the best of me.

This entire thread is depressing and really makes me think I need another good drunk or something. If SHTF I am screwed.

The OP asked for what is SHTF. I have no answer for that. I cannot think of anything that will make me leave. There are others to consider that cannot leave. Better to die in the home I have worked and sweated to have.

Edited August 26, 2010 by Mike.357

[Oh Shoot]

.... If SHTF I am screwed....

If the scenario were ala Patriots or One Second After, at least 75% of us are, regardless of the bravado we may exhibit on a web forum.

And those who bug out to nowhere will be among the first wave to buy it.

- OS

[Mike.357]

And those who bug out to nowhere will be among the first wave to buy it.

- OS

Right. if bugging out I think there needs to be a solid, practiced plan to get to where it is you are going. It has to be realistic. Depending on how it goes down going farther than is possible on foot is not realistic. I do not see gasoline based travel as much of an option.

The lunatics on the roads will be those who have nothing, not even a sack of double cheeseburgers. They will be desperate and ripe for being killed off by someone who is afraid and armed.

And of course OS, should you be able to make it, you will be welcome here.

We gotta come up with a password.

[Guest db99wj]

Bugging out under most circumstances is not going to be the best idea, due to support that will be there within a few days. My only bug out scenario involves a full collapse of the social/economical/governmental systems that are in place currently and that would involve no support coming in.

[Oh Shoot]

Right. if bugging out I think there needs to be a solid, practiced plan to get to where it is you are going.

Well, the destination itself is equally important. All those folks bugging out to the woods .. yeah, right.

We gotta come up with a password.

Wolverines.

Oops, was anyone listening?

- OS

[Mike.357]

Bugging out under most circumstances is not going to be the best idea, due to support that will be there within a few days. My only bug out scenario involves a full collapse of the social/economical/governmental systems that are in place currently and that would involve no support coming in.

To me SHTF does not include something where support would be coming. I see it as more end of society as we know it. Bugging out with those physically unable to do a forced march is not a good option.

Well, the destination itself is equally important. All those folks bugging out to the woods .. yeah, right.

Wolverines.

Oops, was anyone listening?

- OS

I kind of get a chuckle out of the "bugging out to the woods" thing. I am not sure where there are woods big enough to bug out to. Hundreds of thousands of people are not going to last long out there. Around here pretty much every place is owned by someone. I would not be receptive to people deciding my woods were the place to bug out to.

And there would be armed masses reeking havoc as well. The hood rats will get hungry, and places like where I live will be their destinations eventually.

Dangit, that was my first choice as a password. We gotta come up with a better one.

[Guest db99wj]

To me SHTF does not include something where support would be coming. I see it as more end of society as we know it. Bugging out with those physically unable to do a forced march is not a good option.

I kind of get a chuckle out of the "bugging out to the woods" thing. I am not sure where there are woods big enough to bug out to. Hundreds of thousands of people are not going to last long out there. Around here pretty much every place is owned by someone. I would not be receptive to people deciding my woods were the place to bug out to.

And there would be armed masses reeking havoc as well. The hood rats will get hungry, and places like where I live will be their destinations eventually.

Dangit, that was my first choice as a password. We gotta come up with a better one.

I have small kids, which, if hiking, would cause issues, another reason why staying put is more of an option. If it is not a destruction breakdown, I can drive an hour to my moms. She lives on a lake, plenty of fish, and we all could work together. You go bugging out to the woods and it is going to be like ..."hey, Chuck, how are you doing.....got anything to eat?"

[Guest boatme99]

Where would I go?

I have a constant supply of fresh H2O (barring an atomic strike that closes a whole river), tons of game, firewood a-plenty, a good high ground position, and enough cleared ground for a sustainable garden.

What? I'm gonna bug out to see if anythings left at Pizza Hut?

[Mike.357]

I have small kids, which, if hiking, would cause issues, another reason why staying put is more of an option. If it is not a destruction breakdown, I can drive an hour to my moms. She lives on a lake, plenty of fish, and we all could work together. You go bugging out to the woods and it is going to be like ..."hey, Chuck, how are you doing.....got anything to eat?"

db, are you sure the roads would be passable? An hour by car is a long ways away. I have seen what evacuations in Florida do to four lanes of highway. Your jeep might come in veery handy.

[Oh Shoot]

Whew, the constant litany of bad news all day is making me think SHTF may be by the damn weekend.

Fortunately we have Baghdad Bob Biden assuring us that all is on the mend.

- OS

[Guest db99wj]

db, are you sure the roads would be passable? An hour by car is a long ways away. I have seen what evacuations in Florida do to four lanes of highway. Your jeep might come in veery handy.

In the event of an earthquake, it would be very hard if not impossible to get out of here by any vehicle. I actually should buy a boat, then I could put in by my house in the river, get to the Miss River, then I could go up to my mom's house. They could come get me or we could walk, it is only about 10 miles. Very doable. Hmmm,"honey, we need to buy a boat, it's for our survival!"

Having a capable 4wd is a great thing in being able to go side roads, medians, fields and grass rough terrain would be a benefit. If you are single or at least no kids, a motorcycle could come in handy on getting out.

[Mike.357]

In the event of an earthquake, it would be very hard if not impossible to get out of here by any vehicle. I actually should buy a boat, then I could put in by my house in the river, get to the Miss River, then I could go up to my mom's house. They could come get me or we could walk, it is only about 10 miles. Very doable. Hmmm,"honey, we need to buy a boat, it's for our survival!"

Having a capable 4wd is a great thing in being able to go side roads, medians, fields and grass rough terrain would be a benefit. If you are single or at least no kids, a motorcycle could come in handy on getting out.

If I was alone I would have a lot less concern for this stuff. I have a 4 wheel drive quad and always have spare gasoline, probably enough for about ten hours ride time total. But living with 4 boat anchors is a tough row to hoe.

This thread is really depressing me.

[Oh Shoot]

In the event of an earthquake, it would be very hard if not impossible to get out of here by any vehicle. I actually should buy a boat, then I could put in by my house in the river, get to the Miss River, then I could go up to my mom's house. ...

You might get to St. Louis without cranking the motor.

The last New Madrid event pushed the Mississippi backwards!

- OS

[Guest db99wj]

You might get to St. Louis without cranking the motor.

The last New Madrid event pushed the Mississippi backwards!

- OS

Ha, no kidding. It also created the lake my mother lives on. I might not have anywhere to go even if I did get there after an earthquake

[Oh Shoot]

....

This thread is really depressing me.

Cheer up, Mikey.

We'll probably just see quality of life keep slowly spiraling downhill for the rest of our lifetimes.

Probably won't even have to shoot more than a few folks, and mostly just one or two at a time.

We might even croak before the jackboots are against our necks.

And at least we've got our faith to fall back on ... oh, wait ...

- OS

[vontar]

I am like mike, with my wife not making it far on foot, if I was alone I could get some distance.

I know a place I would like to get to with some supplies but from Oak Ridge to my planned place would not be easy. However if I could get there I would be pretty well set.

I figure Oak Ridge would not be a good place if the SHTF

[G27]

If I was alone I would have a lot less concern for this stuff. I have a 4 wheel drive quad and always have spare gasoline, probably enough for about ten hours ride time total. But living with 4 boat anchors is a tough row to hoe.

This thread is really depressing me.

Indeed, my wife is very capable, but with three little ones, none of which are ready to go far on foot, bugging in is the way to go. Luckily, we're somewhat remote relative to memphis - it would take a while for folks to get out this far - and I've been privately speaking with a select few neighbors about plans just in case. Hard to find like-minded people without coming off like a loon, but when you can find a few folks will to band together to defend your area, you have a leg up. If you try top 'go it alone', you're just a sitting duck - if someone finds you and wants you out, they'll get you out, either with firearms or with fire.

[G27]

Worth noting that preppers really should plan for all sorts of stuff - SHTF is far more likely than TEOTWAWKI. IMO, SHTF is something we come back from or is fairly survivable, even including a small scale nuclear attack. Some of what's being talked about here is TEOTWAWKI kind of stuff, which is FAR less likely.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't think things through to improve your chances, but you're far more likely to need a good sidearm to get to and from work, etc after an economic collapse than worry about a nuclear attack or even a massive earthquake with little/no outside support within a few days' time...

[Murgatroy]

Worth noting that preppers really should plan for all sorts of stuff - SHTF is far more likely than TEOTWAWKI. IMO, SHTF is something we come back from or is fairly survivable, even including a small scale nuclear attack. Some of what's being talked about here is TEOTWAWKI kind of stuff, which is FAR less likely.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't think things through to improve your chances, but you're far more likely to need a good sidearm to get to and from work, etc after an economic collapse than worry about a nuclear attack or even a massive earthquake with little/no outside support within a few days' time...

Summed it up pretty well for me. I don't think a lot of folks differentiate between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI.

[Guest 70below]

I figure Oak Ridge would not be a good place if the SHTF

It may be the best place.......no suffering involved...

you're far more likely to need a good sidearm to get to and from work

Shoot.....we're living in those times.

[Mike.357]

Summed it up pretty well for me. I don't think a lot of folks differentiate between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI.

depends on definitions, to a lot of people SHTF would be TEOTWAWKI