SHTF

[Kenstaroni]

2012 if Obama is re elected:)

Ha ha....there's some truth to that....

[mikegideon]

I can't think of any natural disaster in this part of the world that would trigger a SHTF scenario. I've done some disaster stuff. Aid comes from outside the area.

As Rightwinger said, total economic collapse would be a possibility. Nuclear holocaust would be another (but real different). If there was total collapse, and the rule was every man for himself, I'm not sure what I would do. I have more than enough hardware to arm a bunch of my neighbors.

[Oh Shoot]

Read the first couple chapters of Rawles' Patriots for a financial meltdown scenario that could transform the nation almost as quickly as EMP attack.

Scary part is, about 80% of that scenario has already happened.

Something else along the way has recently happened, too.

Know about The Hindenburg Omen?

It's happening:

Hindenburg Omen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And Wiki is already behind:

The Hindenberg Omen - Survivalist Forum

- OS

[mikegideon]

I'm paranoid enough. If the entire economic system collapses, we will probably have to shoot our way out. I may do better at that than the current rules

[DaveTN]

There isn’t much we can do about natural disasters. A lot of mistakes were made during Katrina; we learned a lot and won’t make them again. Help will be pouring in from the outside areas. No one will be trying to take your weapons; at least no one acting in a lawful official capacity. We also learned not to listen to FEMA when they tell us not to go to the area to help.

It would be a shame if we failed because of our economy. We control that; we can change that whenever we want. We don’t need the government or politicians to do much of anything. So I like to think that before our economy collapses the more intelligent part of the population will change the course. Or… maybe the majority of the population is too stupid to change; then we get what we deserve. Look at who our president is; the people elected him.Wow… now as I type this I’m wondering if we deserve to be saved.

[Guest 70below]

I certainly don't profess to have all the answers, but certainly remember if you settle down in your home and decide to sit it out, a home is an amazingly fragile shelter and isn't impervious to many simple things. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

[G27]

It would be a shame if we failed because of our economy. We control that; we can change that whenever we want. We don’t need the government or politicians to do much of anything. So I like to think that before our economy collapses the more intelligent part of the population will change the course. Or… maybe the majority of the population is too stupid to change; then we get what we deserve. Look at who our president is; the people elected him.Wow… now as I type this I’m wondering if we deserve to be saved.

At this point there's not much chance of 'saving' the economy. When you have the CEOs of major firms stating things like "it's not a matter of if but when the US government starts defaulting on treasury payments", you know it's a done deal. Well, that combined with all the evidence around us.

If you keep up with the world of finance and investments at all, you know that trouble isn't just brewing, but about to boil over. How bad will it be? No idea, could be as 'easy' as a long recession, most now think we're looking at a sustained depression in the next couple of years, could be worse than that.

As for what percentage receive some portion of their income as government assistance, the last number I read was just over 8%, which is around 25 million. Apparently around 1.7% of Americans receive more than 50% of their income from the government, which means around 5 million. These figures do not include SS or MediCare numbers and have likely increased since I last looked them up (a while back).

[vontar]

I haven't see anyone bring up chemical and biological causes for a SHTF, unless you consider the nuclear that was brought up.

When Katrina was happening, I told me wife if we where there, we would be driving out, if we could not drive out we would be walking out. Healthy people should easily get 10-15 miles a day.

Looking at ab28 thread on hiking the AT, there were days he made 30 miles on the trail.

Knowing your area, your starting point and having an idea where you want to end up would be must. Knowing a couple different routes to get there would be a plus.

Since main roads would not be the best choice, I have been considering railroads as they are normally more direct. However I am sure many other people have thought of this as well.

If it is chemical/biological/nuclear/other, step one is being in the initial survivor group. You may have very little control over this part. After that is when your additional planning would come into play.

[Oh Shoot]

...

Knowing your area, your starting point and having an idea where you want to end up would be must. Knowing a couple different routes to get there would be a plus.

Yeah, it might be a good idea to actually have a destination.

Since main roads would not be the best choice, I have been considering railroads as they are normally more direct. However I am sure many other people have thought of this as well.

Ever walked very far on tracks?

Rough walking, and actually somewhat slow and dangerous, what with all the rock. The ties are spaced so that no human stride falls on them with each foot. You really have to watch your feet if trying to make time to avoid twisting an ankle. Beside the tracks isn't usually any better. Need good thick soles on your footwear, too, or you'll get stone bruises over time. And for gawd's sake, step out of the sections where the switching rails are .. if one of those should be thrown while your foot is in there, well ...

But it's certainly an option. I actually do about a mile of track two or three times a week, as it's part of the shortest route tween me and town. It's easier than some, as can use a derelict section that they don't refresh with rock anymore.

- OS

[Guest Lester Weevils]

Have thought that high-voltage power line right-of-ways might be good. They criss-cross thru towns out into the countryside, and the typical city-dweller might not ever notice them or know they are there. Often grown up enough to provide some cover.

Maybe 2 legged predators would be more likely on streets than in the brush of power line right-of-ways. Even if predators are not a problem, maybe such a route would not be as crowded as streets.

[Oh Shoot]

....

Maybe 2 legged predators would be more likely on streets than in the brush of power line right-of-ways. Even if predators are not a problem, maybe such a route would not be as crowded as streets.

If things have disintegrated to Mad Max levels, railroad tracks would be perfect ambush alleys.

- OS

[vontar]

Well as far as walking on the rail roads, I know what you mean about the ties not space good for a walking. Sometimes there is easier walking on the edge of the rock on the lower side but I agree one would have the dangers of twisting an ankle.

Have thought that high-voltage power line right-of-ways might be good. They criss-cross thru towns out into the countryside, and the typical city-dweller might not ever notice them or know they are there. Often grown up enough to provide some cover.

Maybe 2 legged predators would be more likely on streets than in the brush of power line right-of-ways. Even if predators are not a problem, maybe such a route would not be as crowded as streets.

Cross country power lines are normally grown up in such thickets that only a rabbit can go though them in many places. Normally filled with saw brier and other thick coverage that would making walking though horrible.

If I was going to consider them I would probably find it better travel to get near one and stay about 50 yards in the woods and keep the power lines on either my left or right depending on my wave of travel as there is normally left under brush in in the forest/woods then in the power line path.

[Guest SUNTZU]

I think alot of people that think about and plan for this stuff OVERPLAN and OVERTHINK it. I agree with DaveTN, unless my home is pretty much destroyed I'm not leaving it. I don't live in a metro area anymore necessarily. Yea I'm close to Memphis, but I'm pretty suburban now. I'm also not near anything that would draw mass people.

The whole "We'd be out of food in the city in 3-4 days" comment also has to be rationalized. Just by what is in the average pantry and fridge no one is starving for at least a couple weeks. I have everything I need at my house and I'm not going running off unless I absolutely have to GTFOOD.

I think you are over-estimating how much food people have in their pantry. Its the people that don't keep food in their pantry that you have to worry about. I lived in a not-very-nice townhouse and when it called for the dusting of snow that shuts down Knoxville for a day or two the entire neighborhood was at McDonald's up the street buying double cheeseburgers by the sackful to ride the storm out. The went right by the Dollar General grocery store to get it. The neighbor behind me asked me for some food because she couldn't get to the store. That was one day. Watch someone going and buying twinkies, candy bars, twizzlers, and potatoe chips at the gas station with their WIC card and realize what kind of grocery shopping a lot of these people do. They don't have a sackful of potatoes, a sackful of rice, and a sackful of beans and are cooking it.

When they get hungry, and their kids have distended bellies from hunger, be ready for a polite knock, if you are lucky with a good neighbor, or to get your door kicked in and them "taking what's theirs" according to how they've been taught by their politicians and the politicians media machine. People will feed themselves and maybe, just maybe, their kids. That goes for the hardcore bastards. The majority of them who will take care of their families will do it one way or another. They've been voting it to themselves and when that furnace is out of fuel they'll go after it by any means necessary. Don't delude yourself thinking it'll never happen in the U.S.A. It has happened all over the world, why not here?

[mikegideon]

It's interesting. I was in Laurel/Hattiesburg Mississippi after Katrina. The place got hammered. The few shootings were over ice and gasoline. For it to turn into a Mad Max scenario, it would have to be more than a multiple state area. Biological is the scary one.

[Guest SUNTZU]

It's interesting. I was in Laurel/Hattiesburg Mississippi after Katrina. The place got hammered. The few shootings were over ice and gasoline. For it to turn into a Mad Max scenario, it would have to be more than a multiple state area. Biological is the scary one.

I agree, it would have to be at the least multi-state. Otherwise, hang tight and wait for the cavalry. Its shut down roads, shut down distribution centers, and just in time delivery to branches that will kick people's teeth in during a multi state disaster.

[Guest Verbal Kint]

What is that situation in which you would need to leave everything you own, your entire life, etc., etc. and flee to some other "safe" place?

The Rapture.

[Guest SUNTZU]

The Rapture.

[mikegideon]

The Rapture.

Aw hell

[gregintenn]

The Rapture.

I'm prepared for that.

[mikegideon]

I agree, it would have to be at the least multi-state. Otherwise, hang tight and wait for the cavalry. Its shut down roads, shut down distribution centers, and just in time delivery to branches that will kick people's teeth in during a multi state disaster.

Gasoline and water are the biggies... mainly gasoline. Food shows up, if you can get there. If I was a doomsday kinda guy, I would rathole enough gas to get me out of the region.

[Oh Shoot]

Originally Posted by Garufa

What is that situation in which you would need to leave everything you own, your entire life, etc., etc. and flee to some other "safe" place?

The Rapture.

Knoville?

- Watts Bar nuke plant meltdown and the wind is to the northeast.

- Certain yield nuclear strike on Oak Ridge where you survive the blast but can't stay for the fallout.

- Ebola epidemic started by your illegal Zairean neighbor.

- Strel becomes mayor.

Oh yeah, and the Rapture -- and the resultant zombies with halos.

- OS

[vontar]

East Coast Tsunami which could be started by a volcano in the Canary Islands.

However,this is one that could happen is one that could also be prevented if people wanted to put in the effort to stop it before it happens. I even have a plan.

[mikegideon]

Bring on the zombies. I'm ready for them.

[Oh Shoot]

Bring on the zombies. I'm ready for them.

I fear there just ain't enough ammo.

- OS

[Guest SUNTZU]

Gasoline and water are the biggies... mainly gasoline. Food shows up, if you can get there. If I was a doomsday kinda guy, I would rathole enough gas to get me out of the region.

Stabil for your gas, but diesel is better. I plan on two gallons a day for myself only. That's bare minimum for drinking, cooking, cleaning, etc. After that, its filter time.