A Disaster Of Mega Proportions Brewing In Gulf

[mikegideon]

We've started getting tarballs on CR-30A thus week. Grayton Beach, Seaside and Santa Rosa beach are all getting them. A friend of mine down here told me that not a single piece of property in Seaside or Watercolor has sold since the spill happened.

This is going to have a major long term impact.

They were getting tar balls in Panama City last week. Perdido Key and Pensacola Beach just got hammered. But, the big issue is that they haven't plugged the well yet. If they can successfully stop the flow, it will add some light at the end of the tunnel. They're pretty well funded to clean up what's out there now, and what will leak between now and the scheduled kill.

If the kill isn't successful, and the whole deposit has to bleed out, it could ruin the entire panhandle for decades. I wouldn't buy anything down there right now either.

[Guest db99wj]

They were getting tar balls in Panama City last week. Perdido Key and Pensacola Beach just got hammered. But, the big issue is that they haven't plugged the well yet. If they can successfully stop the flow, it will add some light at the end of the tunnel. They're pretty well funded to clean up what's out there now, and what will leak between now and the scheduled kill.

If the kill isn't successful, and the whole deposit has to bleed out, it could ruin the entire panhandle for decades. I wouldn't buy anything down there right now either.

Boy talk about a huge Risk/Reward/Fail scenario. You can buy cheap, possibly very cheap, and if it is stopped, cleaned up with no lasting effect, you have a gold mine. If it takes longer, the effect is that you have paid a lot for something that could be worthless or substantially less than what you paid for. Kind of like going to a casino, only put down money that you are prepared to lose completely without hurting you and hoping for a big payout.

[mikegideon]

Boy talk about a huge Risk/Reward/Fail scenario. You can buy cheap, possibly very cheap, and if it is stopped, cleaned up with no lasting effect, you have a gold mine. If it takes longer, the effect is that you have paid a lot for something that could be worthless or substantially less than what you paid for. Kind of like going to a casino, only put down money that you are prepared to lose completely without hurting you and hoping for a big payout.

I almost moved down there a couple of years back. It was already risky because of insurance rates and declining real estate market, which wasn't all related to the bubble bursting. So, it was risky to begin with. If I had to bet money, there are speclators waiting on the kill. When I was looking, water front houses were bumping a mil.

[Oh Shoot]

...They're pretty well funded to clean up what's out there now, and what will leak between now and the scheduled kill....

Maybe.

You can't "see" much of the spill. It has become a plume making, bottom hugging emulsion or colloid, with all the dispersant used. We've got 150 million gallons of a new chemical cocktail out there now, with unknown long term properties and effects, and fairly unpredictable points of concentration.

There may be anaerobic zones for god knows how long. No really telling what all might be affected, or when, or how.. A good tropical storm, let alone a hurricane, might change the game, too.

And no end in sight. I'll believe August when it happens.

I'm still betting on trillion dollar hit. Hell, the LA/MS seafood industry alone might be gone for a decade.

May have two headed pelicans and grouper when populations do return. And two-headed children.

Just no way to know.

- OS

[Jasongar8]

Charter boat captain commits suicide.

Gulf oil spill: Boat captain, despondent over spill, commits suicide | Greenspace | Los Angeles Times

[mikegideon]

Maybe.

You can't "see" much of the spill. It has become a plume making, bottom hugging emulsion or colloid, with all the dispersant used. We've got 150 million gallons of a new chemical cocktail out there now, with unknown long term properties and effects, and fairly unpredictable points of concentration.

There may be anaerobic zones for god knows how long. No really telling what all might be affected, or when, or how.. A good tropical storm, let alone a hurricane, might change the game, too.

And no end in sight. I'll believe August when it happens.

I'm still betting on trillion dollar hit. Hell, the LA/MS seafood industry alone might be gone for a decade.

May have two headed pelicans and grouper when populations do return. And two-headed children.

Just no way to know.

- OS

I was really speaking more about black sand and real estate sales. It's going to take some scientific study to find out the real impact of all of this. I think you're right (as usual), but it's also impossible to quantify the impact until they stop the flow.

[Guest db99wj]

Leak has been stopped during the test of the new cap!!!

No oil leaking during test of BP's new cap - Disaster in the Gulf - msnbc.com

Now it just needs to hold until they permanently fix it!

[mikegideon]

Yep. If the well holds pressure, it will be the beginning of the end.

[G27]

Man, assuming it holds, this is such great news!

[mikegideon]

Man, assuming it holds, this is such great news!

Even if it doesn't, they have enough capacity up top to suck it off without spilling any (except when they gotta bug out for weather). Closing it off is kind of a hail mary. Might as well, and see if it works.

[MacGyver]

Let's just hope that the integrity of the pipe down hole is good enough to withstand the pressure. They are going to get a lot of pressure to turn the test into a permanent solution, and giving into that could prolong this thing even more.

I wonder what having the well head pressurized does to the relief well? I would seem like hitting an artery as soon as they breach the corrupted well.

Let's hope they get this right!

[MacGyver]

BP pumped drilling mud into those relief wells to mitigate risks during the pressure testing. The two wells intersect with the Macondo.

A little research and I answered my own question.

[mikegideon]

Let's just hope that the integrity of the pipe down hole is good enough to withstand the pressure. They are going to get a lot of pressure to turn the test into a permanent solution, and giving into that could prolong this thing even more.

I wonder what having the well head pressurized does to the relief well? I would seem like hitting an artery as soon as they breach the corrupted well.

Let's hope they get this right!

Their COO just answered that. It will actually help them with the kill. They won't have to compensate for flow. Closed or open, I doubt that the pressure will be much different at the bottom of the well where they're going to tap in

[mikegideon]

A little research and I answered my own question.

I don't think you did. My best guess... they pumped the relief wells full of mud so they would be transparent for some of the testing. Among other things, they're going to do some siesmic shots as part of the tests. They will continue with the relief wells as soon as the integrity testing is done.

[G27]

I don't think you did. My best guess... they pumped the relief wells full of mud so they would be transparent for some of the testing. Among other things, they're going to do some siesmic shots as part of the tests. They will continue with the relief wells as soon as the integrity testing is done.

In this morning's briefing, Admiral Allen stated they had initially decided against filling the relief well, but decided it would be prudent to do so as they are only four to five feet away now.

[mikegideon]

In this morning's briefing, Admiral Allen stated they had initially decided against filling the relief well, but decided it would be prudent to do so as they are only four to five feet away now.

No matter what, they finally have the right hardware in place until they can kill it.