odds of being held up in an armed robbery?

[Guest ricks]

not a stats based answer, but when I'm asked why have a gun/why not just call the cops/why do you CC; (sadly, even by my wife), I say "it is _MY_ responsibility to protect myself and my loved ones."

[The Rabbi]

Typically I compare it to having a spare tire in my car. I never want to use my spare tire. At the same time I would never go anywhere without it. And if you need one, there is no substitute.

[molonlabetn]

To be quite honest... I think the 'likelihood' aspect is a bit weak, simply because if someone is trying to kill me, it really doesn't matter how unlikely it is, I just need to do something about it. Same with the spare tire or fire extinguisher... it's less than likely that anyone will have to change their own flat on the side of the road, or fight a fire, but when that moment comes you know that you'll need to be able to solve the problem yourself because help may be out of practical reach.

If my odds of getting a flat were one in a million... I'd still carry a spare tire.

If my odds of being killed by a violent criminal were only one in a billion, I'd still want a means of stopping them effectively.

If my odds of catching on fire were only one in a trillion, I'd still keep some marshmallows handy, to make smores...

[Guest Phantom6]

You have a much much greater chance of being in a car accident than of being held up. If you are a middle-class white man your chances of being in an armed encounter are very small........

Tell that to all the folks that were victims of strong armed robberies in the U.S. over the last 24 hours and I guarantee there were a host of 'em.

Statistical insignificance means little when you are facing the reality of becoming a significant statistic.

The Rabbi later wrote: Typically I compare it to having a spare tire in my car. I never want to use my spare tire. At the same time I would never go anywhere without it. And if you need one, there is no substitute.

Excellent analogy! Along those same lines, while I love the answer "because a cop is too heavy", the Oleg Volk work shown below is hanging on the wall in my office and is one that I use to illustrate the point.

[Guest db99wj]

Typically I compare it to having a spare tire in my car. I never want to use my spare tire. At the same time I would never go anywhere without it. And if you need one, there is no substitute.

Tell that to all the folks that were victims of strong armed robberies in the U.S. over the last 24 hours and I guarantee there were a host of 'em.

Statistical insignificance means little when you are facing the reality of becoming a significant statistic.

Excellent analogy! Along those same lines, while I love the answer "because a cop is too heavy", the Oleg Volk work shown below is hanging on the wall in my office and is one that I use to illustrate the point.

Exactly, I have a spare tire, First Aid Kit, Fire Extinguisher, a full 180 piece mechanics tool kit, pull strap, air compressor, fix o flat and a bunch of other crap in my car, not that I plan on using it, but if I need it, it is there.

I have used the pull strap to pull down a limb a few winters ago, the mechanics tool kit for numerous kids toys, bikes, a tune up, some other stuff, and the air compressor for bike tires, basketballs, footballs and a co workers flat tire (closest scenario to an emergency that I have). Point is that I have never had to use this in an emergency situation, but I have it in case. Sorry I am rambling, love the picture above.

[The Rabbi]

Tell that to all the folks that were victims of strong armed robberies in the U.S. over the last 24 hours and I guarantee there were a host of 'em.

Statistical insignificance means little when you are facing the reality of becoming a significant statistic.

That's an absurd statement.

Just because some people fall victim to the odds does not make the odds any less or greater.

Why not tell that to the people who bought guns but have never used them in self-defense?

[Guest canynracer]

ohhh, I am playin the lottery!!

Quick question....people really ASK you all??? outside my family, or a cop that may pull me over...nobody knows I have a gun

[Guest Phantom6]

That's an absurd statement.

Just because some people fall victim to the odds does not make the odds any less or greater.

Why not tell that to the people who bought guns but have never used them in self-defense?

Says you! Ha!

Mathematically you may be correct but in reality you couldn't express a thought much farther from the truth.

Canynracer wrote: Quick question....people really ASK you all??? outside my family, or a cop that may pull me over...nobody knows I have a gun

The general public will never know whether I have a firearm or not but I was attending a business to business expo recently promoting our school and was asked by a number of business owners about if and why I carried. Since these were prospective clients I certainly wasn't going to lie to them or be evasive in my response. I must say that I was absolutely amazed at how wide-eyed and ignorant some of these folks were regarding possible threats to their own or their employee's security. Those folks will rely upon the statistics that Mr. The Rabbi speaks of while others, the ones with an aptitude for survival in the bunch will realize that statistical insignificance truly means little when you are facing the reality of becoming a significant statistic. The number of Refuse To Be A Victim seminars that I have scheduled from that expo speaks to their understanding of the probabilities and their desire to mitigate the possible dangers.

[The Rabbi]

Says you! Ha!

Mathematically you may be correct but in reality you couldn't express a thought much farther from the truth.

So mathematics and reality are two separate things? Or is it just that since the statistics don't support what you want to believe then they must be wrong?

The truth is that most people do not carry guns. Most people are never touched by crime. Most people have no need of guns. Just like most people never use their spare tire.

It isn't a winning argument.

[molonlabetn]

So mathematics and reality are two separate things? Or is it just that since the statistics don't support what you want to believe then they must be wrong?

The truth is that most people do not carry guns. Most people are never touched by crime. Most people have no need of guns. Just like most people never use their spare tire.

It isn't a winning argument.

Mathematics cannot express both the odds and interval of events for one individual within a large group, from the perspective of the large group, not the individual.

So, no... math cannot fully parallel reality, it can only generalize, calculate and extrapolate known information (except perhaps fuzzy/chaos math... where's Jeff Goldblum when ya' need him )

[The Rabbi]

Mathematics cannot express both the odds and interval of events for one individual within a large group, from the perspective of the large group, not the individual.

So, no... math cannot fully parallel reality, it can only generalize, calculate and extrapolate known information (except perhaps fuzzy/chaos math... where's Jeff Goldblum when ya' need him )

If that were the case then there could be no insurance industry.

[molonlabetn]

If that were the case then there could be no insurance industry.

If that weren't the case, then the insurance companies' super computers would be able to predict which teenager is going to wrap their dad's car around a tree, and save the rest some money.

[Im Neero]

Statistics yet again can only go so far. Let's say that the odds of having to use your spare tire are 1 in 50. That's not my "reality" though. I've had to use my spare tire several times, my odds are 1 in 1, or 100%. It's a fact. Math is not reality, it is an abstract concept used to help better understand reality. There is no 1 out of 100 chance, you cannot take a 1 out of 100 chance and hand it to me, it doesn't exist. It is a concept used to help understand reality.

[Guest Tombstone]

So mathematics and reality are two separate things? Or is it just that since the statistics don't support what you want to believe then they must be wrong?

The truth is that most people do not carry guns. Most people are never touched by crime. Most people have no need of guns. Just like most people never use their spare tire.

It isn't a winning argument.

Sorry Rabbi, But I do not understand why you are arguing your point other than wanting to argue. I understand that there are a lot of people that don't carry or even own a gun and are never touched by the crime. Point taken.

I will just say this. I wished I lived in that world. You can argue your stastisics all day, but until someone can give me a guarentee; I don't like the odds. Whatever the numbers say.

[The Rabbi]

If that weren't the case, then the insurance companies' super computers would be able to predict which teenager is going to wrap their dad's car around a tree, and save the rest some money.

I agree mathematics is no substitute for god. I'm glad we got that straightened out.

[The Rabbi]

Sorry Rabbi, But I do not understand why you are arguing your point other than wanting to argue. I understand that there are a lot of people that don't carry or even own a gun and are never touched by the crime. Point taken.

I will just say this. I wished I lived in that world. You can argue your stastisics all day, but until someone can give me a guarentee; I don't like the odds. Whatever the numbers say.

Look back the link posted that listed odds of dying by any method. Your odds of dying from a firearm are about 1 in 25,000. Your odds of dying from a spider bite are about 1 in 21,000. Do you carry a spider venom antidote with you? No, most of us don't, although it would be cheaper and smaller than a handgun.

My basic issue is truth. If we misrepresent the reasons for carrying (like we need a reason in the first place) then we aren't a lot better than the folks on the other side. There are good and cogent reasons to carry a gun, so no point in making up stuff.

[Guest Mugster]

I just finished the TBI report for 2007. Here's some scary numbers.

Total population in tennessee: about 6 million give or take.

Total offences in TIBR group A is 168,486 in 2006. Thats serious crimes against people more or less. Includes murder, manslaughter, assault, kidnapping, intimidation, rape, sodomy, etc.

Looking at the pure math, thats 168,486 / 6,000,000 or 2.8%

or there are enough serious crimes against individuals, that if each offense was a stand alone crime against a unique individual, 2.8% of the population in tennessee was a victim of (what i would consider to be) a violent crime in tennesse.

In theory, we could cover the entire population of tennessee with some type of nasty crime in a little under 36 years at this crime rate. Note that this doesn't include some forms of robbery, which may or may not include being held up at gunpoint. I'm no criminologist, and i have no idea what the definition of burglery/robbery is.

[The Rabbi]

What kind of crime is intimidation?

Those are sort of meaningless statistics because they do not happen randomly but tend towards certain areas and demographics. If you are a Black drug dealer in Memphis you are far more likely to be the victim of such crime than if you are a white businessman in Brentwood.

[Guest Tombstone]

I guess we should say that we are fortunate to live in a state that it is legal for us to carry. And because of that, we can protect ourselves and our loved ones against those that would like to do us harm. I guarentee that the crimminals don't give a crap about the stastistics and if you fall into a certain demographic group or not.

I carry because of the one chance in how ever many, that I am at a red light and some guy that just got dumped by his girlfriend gets out and starts shooting. Or if I am at the Mall with my daughter and some nut case starts a shooting party.

It doesn't matter to me what the odds are if that will ever happen or not. The thing that matters to me is this; if it does happen, I want to be the one that is living. Once your dead, there are no second chances. End of story.

[Guest Tombstone]

Look back the link posted that listed odds of dying by any method. Your odds of dying from a firearm are about 1 in 25,000. Your odds of dying from a spider bite are about 1 in 21,000. Do you carry a spider venom antidote with you? No, most of us don't, although it would be cheaper and smaller than a handgun.

My basic issue is truth. If we misrepresent the reasons for carrying (like we need a reason in the first place) then we aren't a lot better than the folks on the other side. There are good and cogent reasons to carry a gun, so no point in making up stuff.

I have the ability to step on spiders, and do whenever I have the chance.

[Guest Mugster]

I agree with your comments. But these are the only numbers we have available. I would also guess that one "dirty deed" tends to have multiple charges in this category associated with it.

I have no idea what intimidation is.

[Im Neero]

Look back the link posted that listed odds of dying by any method. Your odds of dying from a firearm are about 1 in 25,000. Your odds of dying from a spider bite are about 1 in 21,000.

Hmm, I think we are looking at a different link. This one http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odd.htm lists the odds of dying from assault by firearm as 1 in 324, the odds of dying from a spider bite as 1 in 269,262. That being said, I have learned to ignore statistics for the most part. I agree with Rabbi that there are many, better reasons to carry a gun. It is of note that the odds of dying by lightning strike are 1 in 81,949, but I bet most people still get out of the swimming pool when we see lightning, and the odds of being killed by a poisonous snake are 1 in 628,277, but most of us Tennessee boys still know to pick up a rock or sheet of plywood so that any snakes under it will exit away from you rather than towards you. Perceived risk has a lot more to do with behavior than actual risk. I personally carry a gun mostly just to piss of my liberal friends. They don't know that I'm carrying, but I do, and it makes me happy to know that while they go on tirades about how dangerous concealed carry is that they are sitting across the table from a loaded .45 that is, amazingly, not killing or maiming anyone.

[Im Neero]

Oh yea, and this one made me laugh, I wish there was a smiley that takes his hat off.

I agree mathematics is no substitute for god. I'm glad we got that straightened out.

[Guest canynracer]

ummm...I carry because there is crime, and I am legally allowed to do so...being from CA just outside LA, it is a releif to know that I am FINALLY allowed to feel like I have the power to protect myself, and my family legally.

I have been a victim in the past, and will not be a victim again. I promise. stats or not...

I agree with both sides here, both have great arguments...but lemme ask this...can you argue religion? For those that believe in god, ask yourself why, I mean REALLY, why? Science says they can prove god didnt exist, do you believe in god any less? no? why?

because just in case they are wrong...i mean, after all they ARE human. I know that I believe in god whole heartedly, you cant and wont change that with science, or math..whether or not I can defend why intelligently by reading the bible and rambleing scripture to prove it, is irrelevant, I believe, period...

I carry, cause numbers mean nothing, or they mean everything, it doesnt matter, when they poll those numbers again, I WILL be on the winning side. for the same reason that I believe that if I am on the losing side of the statistics, I will be on the winning side after im dead...either way...I win