Violence Policy Center simply makes it up (lies)

[Guest colrmccoll]

After reading the recent letters to editor and the article referencing the VPC. I thought I would share this concerning the VPC.

Pajamas Media Violence Policy Center Makes It Up as They Go Along ? Again

The story originated at the blog of the Confederate Yankee.

I know people want things quoted here but it is rather a long piece and I want the originators to receive the appropriate credit.

[Guest HexHead]

After reading the recent letters to editor and the article referencing the VPC. I thought I would share this concerning the VPC.

Pajamas Media Violence Policy Center Makes It Up as They Go Along ? Again

The story originated at the blog of the Confederate Yankee.

I know people want things quoted here but it is rather a long piece and I want the originators to receive the appropriate credit.

Since when have groups like VPC or Brady allowed facts to color their positions?

[LagerHead]

Since when have groups like VPC or Brady allowed facts to color their positions?

As far as I know, that has never happened. Facts in a Brady or VPC or FSA report are as prevalent as virgins on prom night.

[trblmkr13]

Facts? We don't need no stinking Facts

[TMMT]

Anyone remember, back during the Klintoon Admin, just before the AWB when the Brady Bunch got caught running some "stats" from an "FBI UCR" (Uniform Crime Report) that showed some ridiculously stupid spike in gun crimes.

It turned out the UCR was actually a fake UCR, it had been created to show off a new UCR format and was posted to an FBI news server so other admin types could look it over.

I don't think they ever actually retracted their story either.

I remember Rush talking about it.

[Chief07]

The violance policy center, Brady, Southern Poverty law center and other

phony left wing groups just hate America and the bill of rights.

You have to ask the question? What is their true agenda?

I think we all have an idea.

[DaveTN]

This is a debate that we can’t win and it’s silly to get sucked into.

Are HCP holders living at the foot of the cross or less likely to commit a gun crime than the average citizen? Probably not, the average citizen is not a criminal.

Thousands of permit holders lose their license or are refused licenses each year.

Is there a box to check on a Police report asking if the arrested is an HCP holder? Not that I have seen. However, when a serious gun crime is reported by the news and the suspect has a carry permit; that will usually be stated. It’s easy to refute claims that HCP holders don’t commit crimes; documentation is available and they can drag up all the news stories to go with them.

Making a statement that HCP holders is a safer group than criminals that have records is a given. Stating that they are a safer group than average citizens is mere speculation.

Why do some of us want to get trapped in this debate anyway? It is a given that armed thugs carry guns. Disarming us (or the citizens in general) only gives them power.

[Guest don_m]

Are HCP holders living at the foot of the cross or less likely to commit a gun crime than the average citizen? Probably not, the average citizen is not a criminal.

Thousands of permit holders lose their license or are refused licenses each year.

Drinkin' the Brady Kool-Aid are we?? Actually the numbers say that permit/license holders are several times more law abiding than the average American -- and even police officers for that matter. The perception the antis create is that 1) granting permission to carry is causing otherwise law abiding citizens to become violent criminals, and 2) it is futile to defend yourself with a gun (more likely to be shot with your own gun, etc.). The implication is that even one crime by a license/permit holder is unacceptable since there is no benefit.

Something to keep in mind is that if you use a gun in a legitimate self defense situation in most jurisdictions you will routinely be arrested, even though the DA determines that it is self defense and drops the charges or the grand jury refuses to indict. But you were arrested and will show up in their statistics. If they compiled a list of convictions, it would be much shorter. Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

As for some applicants being turned down, isn't that a good thing?

[DaveTN]

Drinkin' the Brady Kool-Aid are we?? Actually the numbers say that permit/license holders are several times more law abiding than the average American -- and even police officers for that matter.

Someone is drinking the kool-aid, but it’s not me. That is ridiculous at face value.

Something to keep in mind is that if you use a gun in a legitimate self defense situation in most jurisdictions you will routinely be arrested, even though the DA determines that it is self defense and drops the charges or the grand jury refuses to indict. But you were arrested and will show up in their statistics. If they compiled a list of convictions, it would be much shorter. Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

That’s just not true either.

People that have used deadly force in a justifiable situation and cooperate with the investigation are rarely arrested. This only comes from my knowledge of responding to or handling these cases. If justification is in question or you stand silent during the investigation; then yes, you may be arrested. The primary responding officers need to know what happened.

[TMMT]

I've responded to many citizen shootings in my career and the vast, vast majority were justified and in non of those instances was the shooter ever arrested. All were questioned and all were read their miranda warning as required by law and I think only one actually requested a lawyer. Most were happy the encounter was over and they survived, they were confident the shooting was justified and that confidence showed in their statements and demeanor when we talked to them.

Plus as an experienced officer and investigator it usually took only a few moments to begin to see elements in the scene which pointed to justification. I always did a good thorough walk through of the scene prior to even greeting the victim, much less asking any questions. Just the body of the suspect alone can tell you most of what you need to know.

Most of the unjustified ones tended to involve store owners/employees, for some reason. I think it was adrenaline or something involving the combat sense of fight or flight where robbers would flee the store and the armed clerk would give chase and end up shooting the robber in the back well outside the store.

Even in those cases it was hard to do what the law required, because you completely understood the emotional level and psychological trauma the victim had just endured surviving an encounter with an armed felon.

Sometimes the Juries did what we couldn't do, but not always... depended on just how warped the prosecutors were.

[Worriedman]

Thousands of permit holders lose their license or are refused licenses each year.

Cite your statistics please.

http://www.tbi.state.tn.us/Info%20Systems%20Div/TIBRS_unit/Publications/2008%20Crime%20in%20Tennessee.pdf

http://www.state.tn.us/safety/stats/DL_Handgun/Handgun/HandgunReport2008Full.pdf

http://www.tennessee.gov/safety/handgun/qualifications.htm

There were 218,004 Handgun Carry Permit Holders on 1/1/2009, in the State of Tennessee. For the calendar year 2008, there were a total of exactly 607 permits suspended or revoked. Therefore, 0.278% of permits were at least suspended for crime or other reasons last year. Suspensions can be temporary; the actual number of permits revoked was 263 which is 0.1206% of the total number of permits at the end of the year, that's less than 1/8 of 1%. In the same time period, there were 47,315 arrests for Domestic Violence, 236 for Stalking, 29,387 for DUI plus 2,843 for Weapon Law Violations in the state during the same time period. With an estimated population of 6,214,888, that means that at least 1.28% of the total population committed crimes that would result in revocations of a permit. In essence the General Population was 1061% more likely to commit an offence of such a magnitude that would result in revocation of a permit, than the HCP Holder as a group. Included in this is the fact that failure to pay child support results in revocation of a permit, but the numbers of that infraction are not included in the crime rate statistics on the General Population, were that to be the case, the order of magnitude would be much higher.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Worriedman

[DaveTN]

Cite your statistics please.

I don’t need to you are doing a great job. Lets use yours.

As I stated the criminal element is a given. We are talking about the average citizen. So let’s remove that 1.2 % as the criminal element.

1.2% of the population has committed a crime that makes them ineligible for an HCP. That number is for one year and the carry permit number is based on four years. So I will give you the benefit of the doubt and raise the criminal element to 4.8.

3.5% of the population has an HCP. 4.8% is a criminal element and 91.7% is eligible for and has no crime that would keep them from getting a permit; they are exactly as likely to be a threat to you as an HCP holder.

I contend that you need to worry about 5% of the population. The other 95% is of no threat to you whether they have a permit or not, and that a permit holder is no less likely to commit a crime against you than the overwhelming majority of the general population.

DISCLAIMER… I used your figures, I have no idea if they are reliable or not. I am not Charlie Eppes, and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn last night.

Do what you want with the math, but if you are going to claim that a member of that 91.7% of law abiding citizens is 1000 more likely to commit a crime against you than an HCP holder; you are going to have to show your work.

Edited December 25, 2009 by DaveTN

[TMMT]

There were 218,004 Handgun Carry Permit Holders on 1/1/2009, in the State of Tennessee. For the calendar year 2008, there were a total of exactly 607 permits suspended or revoked. Therefore, 0.278% of permits were at least suspended for crime or other reasons last year. Suspensions can be temporary; the actual number of permits revoked was 263 which is 0.1206% of the total number of permits at the end of the year, that's less than 1/8 of 1%. In the same time period, there were 47,315 arrests for Domestic Violence, 236 for Stalking, 29,387 for DUI plus 2,843 for Weapon Law Violations in the state during the same time period. With an estimated population of 6,214,888, that means that at least 1.28% of the total population committed crimes that would result in revocations of a permit. In essence the General Population was 1061% more likely to commit an offence of such a magnitude that would result in revocation of a permit, than the HCP Holder as a group. Included in this is the fact that failure to pay child support results in revocation of a permit, but the numbers of that infraction are not included in the crime rate statistics on the General Population, were that to be the case, the order of magnitude would be much higher.[/font][/size]

When taking the 607 permits suspended or revoked figure you cite into account you need to understand how this action works.

In Tennessee, when you are arrested for a felony or DV, once you and the officer appear before the Judicial Commissioner and the warrant is issued, the JC must determine if you hold a valid HCP, if you do he/she must complete the suspension/revocation notice and sent it to the state along with the case number of the criminal complaint filed against you.

The state automatically suspends your permit without comment. This suspension is held until either a conviction or acquittal in a court of law.

Now the funny part...

If you are convicted, the court notifies the state and your permit is permanently revoked, but...

If you are acquitted the court sends absolutely nothing to the state regarding the status of your HCP. You or your attorney must wade into the bureaucratic sea of state lunacy to get your permit reinstated.

And this is not just a HCP thing either, the same process holds for a court and a suspended DL in this state... its a freaking joke.

[macville]

Don't forget that simply letting your permit EXPIRE will also count as being revoked. There needs to be a stat from the state on how many permits were not renewed! I think if we found out how many were revoked for crime, it would be in the <50 range I'm guessing. Think about it...someone dies and therefore cannot renew their permit, REVOKED!

Matthew

[Worriedman]

I don’t need to you are doing a great job. Lets use yours.

As I stated the criminal element is a given. We are talking about the average citizen. So let’s remove that 1.2 % as the criminal element.

1.2% of the population has committed a crime that makes them ineligible for an HCP. That number is for one year and the carry permit number is based on four years.

If you will open the cites above my work, you will find the number on permit holders is for one year, not 4.

I am not one of those that beat on LEO's, I support them in every way I can, so you can take that chip off your shoulder. But it is a fact that the HCP holder as a class IS more likely to abide by the law than the general public.

Do a little reading on the sites above my math, you will find it to be correct. All the figures come directly from them, and are current for the year 2008, the latest stats available.

[DaveTN]

I shouldn’t get into these conversations; but I can’t help it. Common sense and math skills go out the window.

If you will open the cites above my work, you will find the number on permit holders is for one year, not 4.

Okay, I was just trying to give you the benefit of that doubt. That changes the criminal element to a smaller number and makes the general population that is just as crime free as you are; a bigger number.

So now you have, 1.2% criminal element, 95.3% in general population that is eligible for a permit and every bit as safe and crime free as the 3.5% that you have living at the foot of the cross.

I am not one of those that beat on LEO's, I support them in every way I can, so you can take that chip off your shoulder.

Where the hell did that come from ? I don’t have a chip on my shoulder and what does this have to do with LEOâ€s?

But it is a fact that the HCP holder as a class IS more likely to abide by the law than the general public.

Not it isn’t a fact, it’s something you read on the internet and want it to be true. I am an HCP holder, but trying to hold us above the general public makes us all look ridiculous.

I have shown you it is not a fact. By “Show your work†I meant show the math. Your links are not “work†they are just copies of stuff from the net. If the text in your post is “Your work†and not something you are quoting, then it is just wrong. 1000% more likely to have a crime committed against you by the general population than by an HCP holder? That’s preposterous unless you just want to apply the element of chance. I have shown you that the majority of the general population are not criminals and are every bit as trustworthy and safe as you are. To state that just because we paid the state for a privilege raises us to some elite status is ridiculous.

Do a little reading on the sites above my math, you will find it to be correct. All the figures come directly from them, and are current for the year 2008, the latest stats available.

I don’t need to. Bradys "facts" are and so are yours.

[Worriedman]

Those are statistics provided by the State of Tennessee. The math is a simple computation of the figures provided by the TBI and the State.

1000% more likely to have a crime committed against you by the general population than by an HCP holder?

That is not what I said, I simply applied a formula which reached the fact that:

In essence the General Population was 1061% more likely to commit an offence of such a magnitude that would result in revocation of a permit, than the HCP Holder as a group.

The cites from the Official State sites are not something "I read" on the internet, but research of data provided by the Government, with respect to acts that would result in revocation of a Handgun Carry permit.

You touted:

Thousands of permit holders lose their license or are refused licenses each year.

I asked you to show your data, which so far you have not done. The rules for the successful application for a HCP are published, if an individual who does not fit the rules applies, I do not think those who have committed an act that would preclude them from legally obtaining a permit should be counted against the honest, legal class of holders.

[TMMT]

Every time this point is put to the statical test the FBI always comes back with the same answer.

The number is just so low its almost impossible to project it with any level of accuracy.

All statical models have a margin of error and according to the FBI URC, anything that falls inside the MOE is not reported because its to small to be reliable.