Where Will The Population Flee?

[Guest maxidiesel]

I found this, and believe it is more insightful than anything so far:

SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Most important need in the first few days after TSHTF (old post)

I'm just getting started on this blog thing, so please be patient. New subjects and isuses of discussion will be added. As always, suggestions and criticism are always welcome, so please participate if you feel like it.

I’ll be adding some old posts, both for people that haven’t read them and for keeping them all in one place.

I’ve lost a lot of stuff because I almost never save what I write on my hard drive, just copy/paste it from Word and that’s it. So it will be nice to have a site where people that are interested can find all in one place.

Premise: USA is headed for a similar economic meltdown to the one you and your family experienced.

Given: I have had little or no success trying to warn friends and family who continue to think their lives will go on the same way forever.

QUESTION: What was your most important need/concern in the first few days after TSHTF, and what advice do you have for the rest of us regarding your answer?

Well, your friends just may be right, maybe nothing happens and their lives go on just like now more or less. Most people do know that sometimes life throws you an oddball or two, everyone has his or her own story.

What your friends need to realize is that what it’s consider “normal†social structure is in fact a delicate system, one that can take a few bumps but every now and then things get a bit more complicated, sometimes it just goes over the edge completely and you get to see how fragile modern society actually is.

I’m talking about large power grid failures ( Such as the one recently in Barcelona, 3 days without power in a large metropolis), water or any other services. Whatever the reason, accident, sabotage, terrorist attack, it brakes that delicate thread and society suffers.

Something as simple as garbage disposal is actually critical. A city without garbage disposal will smell pretty bad after a few days, garbage piling on the sidewalk, give it two weeks and rats will start spreading disease like crazy. I’m not just coming up with these numbers. We went for almost a week without anyone picking the trash once (strike), the smell was terrible as soon as you walked out the door and the rats could be seen on broad daylight.

Now, if it’s only about services, a well organized city will solve minor incidents in short notice. Of course there are exceptions, ( mayor earthquake, tsunami, NBC terrorist attack) but even mayor incidents end up turning into short term SHTF inconveniences. It may take a week, a month or two, but eventually thinks do go back to normal.

Now, something like what happened here, an economical collapse, that changes life for you forever.

I’m talking about a new perspective in all aspects of live.

Most man kind divides the world’s history according to the birth of Christ. So do we, but Argentineans also refer to “ before and after 2001†or “ before and after the crisis or 1:1 ( when 1 peso= 1 dollar) I kid you not, this kind of reference is used several times a day on ordinary conversations.

Example;

“Nice car! How did you afford it?†“No, I bought it before the 2001 crisisâ€

“Have you ever been to Paris?â€

“Yes, beautiful placeâ€

“Really, man I wish I could go thereâ€

â€Yea, but I went before 1:1â€

This is just an example, of how such an event transformed everything for us, in such a terrific scale.

Economy is probably the weakest link in the chain in modern society. It’s all numbers, and data, no tangible materials, and most people simply ignore that our economy system works around TRUST.

You TRUST that that piece of paper the bank gave you equals the savings you worked so hard for decades. Objectively speaking, you are the world’s greatest fool, surrendering saving that could be translated into houses, cars, clothes and food, tangible items, for a piece of paper that’s worth less than 0.1 cents. But that’s the way our world works and we couldn’t have it any other way. This is only possible when you have blind trust in certain consolidated institutions.

Alas, but what happens when these institutions betray that trust? People don’t believe this can happen, even if it has happened, many times throughout history.

Banks may care about their clients, but they care about themselves first, then their elite clients, and then the average person.

Out of ALL the banks in this country, every single world famous bank, they all stole the saving from the clients. This can happen, and crime or lawful action is only determined by a signature at the end of a resolution my friends. Desperate times, desperate measures, our constitutional rights to private property were ERASED… at least until the higher powers determined we could have them back for a while longer.

Only one bank in the entire country gave the money back to those that wanted it. A small town bank somewhere in Patagonia ( Santa Cruz, I believe) stood by its clients, and though many did close their accounts, most clients decided to keep their money in the bank that proved worthy of such trust! It’s strange but that’s what happened.

Of course this does not happen with large banks, there’s always speculators and powerful people that will get tipped off and leave with bags full of money, while the average person looses everything. ( well, not everything, about 1/3 of the money was returned after a few years, by converting the accounts in dollars to pesos which cost 3 times less than a dollar)

So, I’d say that the most important thing you should know, before and after the crisis: Understand that the gov. and private institutions don’t care about YOU or your family, they care about themselves, keeping their profits high at ALL costs, and governments staying in power for as long as possible to keep filling up their pockets.

Even a benevolent gov. ( few around these days) will gladly sacrifice YOU and YOUR family if they estimate it will work for a greater good.

Its’ hard to determine a certain day, so as to talk about “ few days after TSHTFâ€. There was a braking point when the president gave a lousy speech, the “cacerolazo†protest in front of the government house and his resign after that.

It’s more of slower or faster “slide†rather than a certain fixed day, though the events may later cause a protest or lootings that will be later on considered as the start of the SHTF.

Look for the sings of trouble, various degrees of social unrest, lack of response by the government. Generally speaking, look for signs of the average Joe, middle class person just having got fed up with it all. No one can guestimate when SHTF will occur, but you sure can look for the alarms sounding off here and there.

Many times high ranking gov. officials mange certain information that is not openly released to the public in fear or civil unrest, same happens with large corporations. Listen to you friends that work in such places, gather gossip, news ( careful, most big time media is censored or bought by the powers to be) and come to your own conclusions.

Answering the question :

quote:

“What was your most important need/concern in the first few days after TSHTF, and what advice do you have for the rest of us regarding your answer?â€

First, make sure you have enough supplies ( food and water) to last for a couple of weeks at least. If you don’t, rush to the supermarket and buy it using credit card if they still accept it.

If you have enough food, stay put at home and keep track through the TV of what’s going on. Don’t go out there just to fool around.

IN our case, martial law and curfew at 8 PM was established, people could not gather in group greater than 2 or 3 persons, so it was not safe anyway. None the less, few obeyed all this crap, but it was still established so you know what you were dealing with if cops caught you.

The greatest need when the lootings started was means to defend yourself. Maybe that’s why I encourage everyone to make weapons part of their basic preparedness kits, right along with food, water, money, and medicines. We watched daily as the lootings spread everywhere, and when the mobs of distressed people started looting homes along with the supermarkets and shops, things got really scary. I watched such a mob pass about 15-20 yards from my home. At first I only heard drums ( used during the protests) but these protesters were also looting along the way. The mass of looters was huge, covered the entire street and sidewalk, all across as far as I could see, a block long or more.

So, having means to defend yourself is very important during the first days as well as later on, after the veil of fear of “punishment per crime†is removed from the society.

People that seem normal during “normal†times, unleash the animals they keep at bay during law abiding times. The evil among normal people also surprised me. Average Joe takes advantage of the possibility to loot without getting punished for it if he sees the chance. Hell, nothing people do surprises me anymore.

Then there was the need to get cash, which disappeared within hours from ATMs after banks closed. The “NO credit card†signs showed up instantly. Only cash. And cash was getting very hard to find.

Many supermarkets closed their doors, fearing looters, and those that were opened quickly started to run out of basic supplies.

As for advice:

-Keep a healthy amount of cash at home at all times. Precious metals work but you’ll need cash to get by until banks and financial entities willing to pay a fair price reopen. Selling your gold in a pawn shop will be bad business, most likely they’ll try to get advantage of your need. At least until the market settles and then they’ll start paying according to the real value, but this takes some time.

-Have a gun for self defense, and learn how to use it. If you only have one weapon, make that a handgun and a box or two of premium ammo. Why handgun and not a long arm? Because things will be VERY dangerous out there and you’ll be wanting some protection, even when walking the dog, picking up mail, or going to the grocery around the corner, you cant’ do that with a long arm, and THOSE are the times you need to be armed the most.

-Have at least one or two months worth of food, water, medicines ( prescription meds you need for a certain condition you may have!), whatever you use around your house, such as soap, shampoo, dishwasher soap and various cleaning supplies. Once you have that, work towards a 6 to 12 month supply, specially concerning food. 2 or 3 years worth? Yes, nice to have but if you see the SHTF period extending that long, you better have a place to relocate because its’ simply not safe to be there anymore.

-Work towards financial security. Money in accounts in two or three countries, investments portfolios, real estate. Try placing your eggs in different baskets because, as we talked about it earlier, you can’t really trust them. Real estate is probably the safest and easiest form of investment, it has worked for my family really well, even through the crisis. We still have the pieces of land and buildings over it. It looses some value but adjusts over time to the reality of the country, going back to become a source of income.

-Have back up plans for EVERYTHING. Alternative sources of light, for transportation , fuel, ways of cooking, but most of all, have another location to move in case it is no longer possible to continue in the country or region where you are. This is my case and I’m really glad to have alternatives to move out of my country. I’m not talking about a cabin somewhere or a retreat, once things get that bad, you better get moving and relocating somewhere else, another state or even another country. You simply can’t fight the reality around you when crime gets out of control, along with everything else. Have your papers ready ( passport, birth certificate, etc)

-Know that during troubled times a house, retreat or cabin is of any use as long as it is inhabited. If SHTF for real, no empty building remains empty for long. Either it gets picked to the bare walls, or even worse , you find it one day with a family or several already established in there, which will take a long time for you to evict the invaders through legal channels.

-Keep a low profile. Showing off money or expensive clothes, flashy cars or jewelry is a good way to get targeted by criminals.

-Understand that in just a matter of weeks crime starts increasing exponentially when serious SHTF such as an economical collapse occurs. These kind of situations may take decades to reverse, or maybe never go back to what it used to be.

When I was 20 years old I lived in a 1st world country, 8 years later it’s a mixture of cheapo 3rd world tourist sites, a bit of tasteful 1900 architecture, surrounded by sights fitting either Ecuador, Colombia or some kind of war zone, and it all went to hell in a hand basket in less than a year. The change was amazing for anyone that cared to notice. Libraries, churches, town theaters, it all closed and later reopened having been replaced by bar-***** house joints, “All for 2$†shops, Bingos, casinos, self proclaimed churches, many with links to Umbanda Brazilian rituals. A perfect example of the decay in our society trough the last years.

Hope that helps.

FerFAL

[Guest jackdm3]

YouTube - Using Quotes

I kid you. We do that alot here.

Edited December 16, 2009 by jackdm3

[JW3Percent]

If middle TN becomes "inhospitable"... I would probably migrate towards east TN (Nantahala Nat'l Forest / Smokies / etc) But only because I am very familiar with this area. I havent really thought it out past this.

[Guest SUNTZU]

I think that the Smokies and National Forests would look like Walmart on Black Friday if something were to happen. EVERYone thinks head to the hills.

[creeky]

I think that the Smokies and National Forests would look like Walmart on Black Friday if something were to happen. EVERYone thinks head to the hills.

True... but I bet two weeks later they are in the fetal position nursing a dead cellphone. I don't think most people would head deep in the woods, or be able to actually survive there if they did.

I would bet most wouldn't go no deeper than a few hundred yards.

Our society, I think the majority anyways... is very soft with limited real problem solving skills. I could be wrong though.

[Guest jackdm3]

True... but I bet two weeks later they are in the fetal position nursing a dead cellphone. I don't think most people would head deep in the woods, or be able to actually survive there if they did.

I would bet most wouldn't go no deeper than a few hundred yards.

Our society, I think the majority anyways... is very soft with limited real problem solving skills. I could be wrong though.

Consider this: Societal breakdown would convert much of the anti's to the understanding of the need for a gun. A few million converts? I'll take that.

[Guest SUNTZU]

True... but I bet two weeks later they are in the fetal position nursing a dead cellphone. I don't think most people would head deep in the woods, or be able to actually survive there if they did.

I would bet most wouldn't go no deeper than a few hundred yards.

Our society, I think the majority anyways... is very soft with limited real problem solving skills. I could be wrong though.

I'm not saying they are going to turn into Jeremiah Johnson. There would be a lot of people with no clue as to what to do. If those people are armed, there will be volley fire at anything that moves, so I picture a lot of people getting shot. That includes shots that keep on going and hit little Johnny on the other side of those mountain laurels.

People will get further into the woods the more roads and trails that there are, in my opinion. Course, the interstate, Chapman Hwy. and other roads leading to the mountains would probably be as packed as the roads were when people were trying to flee Katrina.

I do agree with your last statement.

[creeky]

It seems like when ever I see disaster footage on TV... there are two types of people walking around... okay maybe three...

1. The guy/girl standing around saying over and over "what are we going to do" and "When will 'they' send us some help.

2. The guy/gal boarding up or moving out... looks around and pretty much has a loose plan of what they need to do and has no illusions of hoards of help just over the horizon.

3. The guy/gal that is looting like their is no tomorrow... who I think is more like number "1" than anything... they aren't stocking up to help survive, they are grabbing crap like TVs and cases of beer. Why? They like number "1" think... "I better get all I want now before 'they' come back in and clean this stuff up."

I do agree with you "Sunz' people on the edges would be confused, panicky, and shooting at anything most likely.

[strickj]

Don't know about you, creeky, but I's can not survive without tv and beer

[Krull]

West Virginia and KY ...... There are a lot of resources in both. Not many strategic targets

either. The thing that scares me about east Tennessee is y-12 x-10 k-25 and surrounding area plants. Would be a target I would think to a well informed invasion force. You have nuclear fuel service in tri cities area which is also a target. KY west would probably be a good place to roll to. Red Dawn could be a reality one day.

[MCSCOTT]

This thread has been a great read. Lots of great points that I hadn't taken into consideration before. I will have to be one of the head for the hills kinda guys. I have a place where wildlife should be plentiful for a little while, and there's plenty of water as well with not many people in the area. Also the people that are in the area are either family or long time family friends, and most do everything they can to live off the land as it is and have plenty to share. As long as the group you are living around is close, you will always have some protection from the refugees mentioned as well as the gangs that are looking to steal from you, so that is a definate plus for getting to know the folks in your area and knowing you can all count on each other.

Of course it is fact that the game population will be destroyed in a matter of time with all the other folks that will be trying to live off the land, so as horrible as it sounds I would then have to resort to cannibalism I suppose. Instead of eating the cow, set it out in plain view as bait for those that would be wanting to steal it........

None of that last part is anything I really want to seriously think about, but usually when I hear the word "survival", the terms "any means necessary" and "whatever it takes" usually come to mind.

Sadly though I have no idea what I would do about medicine. Even though I don't currently have a need for anything much, I know at some point the need would come up. That makes me really want to do some more reading up on natural remedies.

Every bit of that goes out the window in the case of a zombie attack. When that happens my plan is to load all my ammo up and head to a decent building I can get on the roof of, then have fun shooting at all the zombies on the ground 'til the ammo runs out. After that I'll just give up and go get bitten so I can join them I guess. Looks like my plan in either kinda disaster will end up with me having to eat people.

[Guest 7mmMag]

i think everyone should go to frayser. There is virtually nothing there of value.

[Guest jackdm3]

Fo sho!

[Guest mosinon]

Every bit of that goes out the window in the case of a zombie attack. When that happens my plan is to load all my ammo up and head to a decent building I can get on the roof of, then have fun shooting at all the zombies on the ground 'til the ammo runs out. After that I'll just give up and go get bitten so I can join them I guess. Looks like my plan in either kinda disaster will end up with me having to eat people.

Never thought of that. If a zombie attack comes I'm going to shoot as many as possible then, when I only have enough ammo left for one magazine for each weapon, I'm going to load the mag and tape the weapon to my hand. Then get bitten.

You know why? Because whoever is left will see me waving a gun around and think "The **** have learned to use guns!" Which would crack my pre zombie self up.

[Oh Shoot]

...

You know why? Because whoever is left will see me waving a gun around and think "The **** have learned to use guns!" Which would crack my pre zombie self up.

That's really totally twisted ... but quite funny.

- OS

[Mark A]

hmmm... I wonder if I need to cut some gun ports in my 5th wheel?

Current plan is to head over to my bosses land on the other side of town, He has about 150 acres of pretty defensible land with good running water etc.

Planning on taking the camper to an area with kind of a cliff behind it and a long area to fire down into. Gun ports would mean I wouldn't have to go outside which means I could keep watching the satellite TV. Guess I need to think about it some more.

mark

[MCSCOTT]

Never thought of that. If a zombie attack comes I'm going to shoot as many as possible then, when I only have enough ammo left for one magazine for each weapon, I'm going to load the mag and tape the weapon to my hand. Then get bitten.

You know why? Because whoever is left will see me waving a gun around and think "The **** have learned to use guns!" Which would crack my pre zombie self up.

Man, I like your way of thinkin. To still be messin with people's minds while you're a zombie would be funny. I'm bettin all your new zombie friends would even pause for a second to laugh a little.

[Guest BEARMAN]

Good folks...check out this site, if you have not already. I think it will answer alot of your concerns about survival and living off the natural resources of the land.

www.backwoodshome.com

"knowledge is a powerful weapon"

Regards...Bearman

[Guest BEARMAN]

Here's another link for you good folks concerned about substituting natural herbs and vitamins for some of your meds.

( Disclaimer )

I'am not a doctor, or a pharmacist, so please do your homework, before you begin to tinker with your prescribed medicines! Results could be fatal!!!

www.wildpantry.com

Hope this will help with some of your questions about natural remedies.

"Knowledge is a powerful weapon"

Regards...Bearman

[Guest KarlS]

After reviewing this thread I've seen some great ideas on how folks will handle a SHTF situation. I have also learned there are some who know exactly what they are doing and others who either don't believe or are totally unprepared. At this point I need to re-evaluate where I am. It's not the obvious I'm unprepared for but rather the things not even considered before. There has been a temendous amount of good reading coming out of this thread!

A very good friend of mine has been preparing for a while just a little at a time. He referred me to a site that is broken down into regions of the country that folks can get together and discuss that particular area. Here is the link and looks like a bunch of great info. Yes a forum named when SHTF When SHTF - The Modern Day Survival Forum

[Jonsaiga]

After reviewing this thread I've seen some great ideas on how folks will handle a SHTF situation. I have also learned there are some who know exactly what they are doing and others who either don't believe or are totally unprepared. At this point I need to re-evaluate where I am. It's not the obvious I'm unprepared for but rather the things not even considered before. There has been a temendous amount of good reading coming out of this thread!

A very good friend of mine has been preparing for a while just a little at a time. He referred me to a site that is broken down into regions of the country that folks can get together and discuss that particular area. Here is the link and looks like a bunch of great info. Yes a forum named when SHTF When SHTF - The Modern Day Survival Forum

JMHO so take it for what it is worth to you but you may want to check out The Survival Podcast's Forum. TSP is also broken down into various regions and have regular get togethers. The climate is much friendlier and open there.

While there are some good people with plenty of worth while knowledge on WSHTF, there is also too much(for me anyways) "over paranoia, tin foil hat, black helicopter, the gov and everyone else is or will be out to get me and my stuff too" crowd. That was the biggest reason I choose to step down as Moderator over there(screen name mjollnir there).

[Oh Shoot]

I guess the biggest forum is:

Survivalist Forum Survival Gear Reviews and Self Sufficiency Articles

It has its share of tin foilery, but is also a hugely valuable resource. Many gigs of down-loadable guides, how-tos, databases, etc.

They have been having intermittent site probs, too, probably just another case of a popular site outgrowing hosting.

- OS

[Guest KarlS]

Thanks for the inside scoop on the other forums Jonsaiga and OS. I had done some reading today and by the time I got through I wondered if there was a safe place to go. Cities and burbs were out. The country you stood a chance if teamed up with either family or friends in groups. Other than that BO into the wilds to hide until it's over. Too much of it wears me out but I don't want to be completely unprepared.

[Oh Shoot]

Thanks for the inside scoop on the other forums Jonsaiga and OS. I had done some reading today and by the time I got through I wondered if there was a safe place to go. Cities and burbs were out. The country you stood a chance if teamed up with either family or friends in groups. Other than that BO into the wilds to hide until it's over. Too much of it wears me out but I don't want to be completely unprepared.

My considered opinion is that if we only have a depression about equal to the '30's in America, we'll lose at least a quarter of our population in the first few years, maybe significantly more and quicker. Of course, there are worse possible disasters, which would be ... well, way worse.

At my age, single and with no real family, I keep about 3 months food and water and whatnot, but if the worst happened, that's mainly just to get enough breathing room to see if it's worth continuing to struggle, assuming I made it that long.

I do believe though, that if I were younger and/or had an immediate family, I'd be thinking in terms of at least a year's supply of essentials, and a real backup location that would increase the odds, and likely the type of preps that might come into play in the very long term (like heirloom seeds).

Tinfoil territory? Dunno, we're in uncharted territory.

I see my limited effort as about as reasonable as carrying a spare tire, no more.

Population alone makes for unprecedented scenarios, and ultimately is the primary cause of the quality of life to continue a significantly decline, and ultimately crash.

- OS

[Guest Abominable_Hillbilly]

Here's a good article from SurvivalBlog the other day regarding where people will go during a disaster or societal collapse. Rawles takes a look at potential "slow slide" scenarios, and total grid-down failure.

COA Analysis of Common Survival Strategies, by JIR - SurvivalBlog.com