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Analyses Last Updated: Sep 26, 2007 - 9:13:13 AM

Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran

By Dr. Jack Wheeler, To The Point News 19/9/07

Sep 25, 2007 - 12:09:27 PM

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"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing,' he reports. 'No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic.'

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria. On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal. Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that 'speaks volumes' as he claims, but Syria's.

Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil? The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, 'considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.' Syria now 'possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,' with 'more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,' some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria 'before being introduced into Russian operation service.' While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked. Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.

I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun. It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that 'France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program.' All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that '600 Shihab-3 missiles' will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.

This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that 'we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack.' A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh. Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within. But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean 'nuclear material' recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively 'dirty' warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006). Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel. A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003. But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success. Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.

I make no claims about how valid the speculation is in this article but it sure sounds interesting. I have to say that he does have a point about how silent Syria is about an overt act-of-war by Isreal.

[molonlabetn]

Defenseless or not, Iran will make N. Iraq look like a walk in the park.

[Guest GT_Rat]

I don't know. Based on some stuff I've read I can see Iran being on the verge of collapse governmentally. Read Michael Tottens "The Next Iranian Revolution" article/interview.

[Marswolf]

Opinion? Well, it it was any of a dozen Intel sources I know like Austin Bay or Jim Dunnigan, (or me), I'd pay attention to it. But Wheeler is a self-promoting "conservative" flake.

[Mike.357]

The Iranians would be more than foolish to start anything with our military already there.

This insurgent crap may slow our guys down some but no one can beat our military in a conventional war. The Russians will not get openly involved.

Who knows what the Israelis did. They are a wild card and I do not think anyone can really influence what they want to do.

Maybe the radar did not work due to espionage?? All, some or none of the writers conjecture may be true. Why hasn't Syria spoke out?

[Guest GT_Rat]

Opinion? Well, it it was any of a dozen Intel sources I know like Austin Bay or Jim Dunnigan, (or me), I'd pay attention to it. But Wheeler is a self-promoting "conservative" flake.

That's kind of what I was looking for. The fact that they are not raising a stink about it with the UN does seem to lend some credence to the article. Not sure about the claims on Syria's supposed AA defense being what he claimed it to be but I could see it being similar to Iran's since they are holding each others jocks like best friends.

[towerclimber37]

Historically, as well as practically, Russian equipment has been junk.

I know this because I trained to defeat their tactics and went up against quite a bit of their equipment.

their tanks can be destroyed by 25mm cannon fire. The only decent Helo they ever made was the Hind-E, Iran makes their own weapons, these days...but they do NOT want to go against the U.S. Our equipment as well as training are orders of magnitude above theirs. Our troops are healthier and the moral is better in our army overall, compared to theirs.

the only factors I can think of that would be in their favor is supply lines and their ability to get other countries (syria and possibly egypt) involved.

Israel would offset that problem.

[Marswolf]

A couple of other points, now that I've had a cup of coffee....

Wheeler claims that the Syrian AA defense network didn't even light up. That means it wasn't jammed. Then he says the Israelis used either F-15 Eagles or F-16 Fighting Falcons. No way to make either of those completely stealthy.

The story doesn't make any sense.

[Guest GT_Rat]

The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Because of this I was figuring we were jamming on a much higher level than just throwing out craploads of white noize at their radar sites. We've been doing that since before Vietnam so it wouldn't surprise me if we had the technology after 30+ years of development to jam radar and make it look like nothing is there.

[molonlabetn]

Because of this I was figuring we were jamming on a much higher level than just throwing out craploads of white noize at their radar sites. We've been doing that since before Vietnam so it wouldn't surprise me if we had the technology after 30+ years of development to jam radar and make it look like nothing is there.

This is very likely. But anything in use today is detectable (even stealth aircraft)... the question becomes whether or not Syria and Iran actively scan their airspace for any type of RF or ECM anomolies, or even if their radar operators know much more about fine-tuning their equipment than a 5th grader.

[Guest GT_Rat]

That is true. We usually smack down any Soviet/Russian military technology we go up against but we almost never run into people with the training to use it effectively.

[towerclimber37]

heh heh heh,

thats why the AK47 is so simple. You can't argue with its effectiveness though, at ranges under 300 yards.

I would say anything that required advanced thought wouldn't be run very well these days.

the Russian federation is just now coming back, or they want us to THINK they're coming back, after almost 20 years of post cold war destruction.

I wonder what the mean education level is for them overall?

[molonlabetn]

heh heh heh,

thats why the AK47 is so simple. You can't argue with its effectiveness though, at ranges under 300 yards.

I would say anything that required advanced thought wouldn't be run very well these days.

the Russian federation is just now coming back, or they want us to THINK they're coming back, after almost 20 years of post cold war destruction.

I wonder what the mean education level is for them overall?

That's what happens when you have a massive conscripted military... the status-quo of the standard grunt is pretty low.

I imagine that the officers are well educated, and their special-forces well-trained, however... their effectiveness will be limited only by the tactics they employ using their low-skill troops, and the careful use of their elite units in an overall strategy. They sure gave Hitler a run for his money using (huge numbers of) poorly equipped peasants, supported by a few very driven specialists and commanders. In WW2, the few snipers and fighter aces that they had nearly made up for the high kill-to-loss ratio of the rest.

But, in terms of Iran/Syria... they are nowhere near that organized or skillful, and with nowhere near the numbers. Still, they aren't harmless...

[Guest GT_Rat]

Consider that when Iran and Iraq were duking it out in the 80's they were using high end Russain tanks as artillery pieces. It's no wonder Iran's "human wave" attacks were effective.

[towerclimber37]

During the Iran/Iraq war, Iran used chemical weapons to offset the numbers, as well as high density mine fields.

Iran used children to make a path through those minefields.

In Iraq, there were select units that were well trained (the republican guard) but inept. In Iran, the Quds forces are well trained..but I would imagine that they too are inept at conventional warfare.

Hizbollah (the "party of God") is about as close to a conventional army as they'll get to augument their army, and they're yellow.

Iran does NOT want a stand up fight with us.

Keep in mind that most all Persians and Arabs operate on the PERCEPTION of strength. while they're great at ambush, when it comes to a stand up fight, they don't do so well against outside forces. Perhaps its because they've always lost when it comes to that kind of fight...I think its' given them a complex or something.