Stock Market

[gregintenn]

5 minutes ago, Erich said:

So I’ll take that as a no 

 

[gregintenn]

So your saying the entire tariff deal was constructed to manipulate the stock market and screw granny out of her pension?

Could well be. I don't know. I do know dollar cost averaging works.

[DraxTheDad]

Buying more stocks today, had money waiting for a good dip.  

[Tom B]

I bought some today also. Been buying and trading maybe 20 yrs.

But, here is my theory on the stock market.

Unless you are an insider, for most of us to make money we have to just get lucky-lol.

The market managers are just playing with us.

[btq96r]

Some of you think you're buying the dip, you might find yourself in a dead cat bounce.  Dollar cost averaging to buy index funds is the tried and true method for regular people to invest wisely.  Anything else and you're working the same odds as a parlay on DraftKings, without the fun of getting to watch a game.

It was brutal, really brutal today.  That's a reaction to how deep these tariffs were, and how industries up and down the exchanges are going to have to recalculate their models, handle inventory on hand, and consider what a further decline in consumer spending may bring if this goes into a recession.  I'm not worried yet, but there is a risk of a stagnant market until all this gets sorted out.

Time to find out who has the stomach to ride the dips.  Or as Buffet is often quoted, we'll see who's skinny dipping as the tide goes out.

[Erich]

10 hours ago, gregintenn said:

So your saying the entire tariff deal was constructed to manipulate the stock market and screw granny out of her pension?

Could well be. I don't know. I do know dollar cost averaging works.

Yes and no. More no. If you go back and look, its a position but stated / closed with a question.  It was meant to illicit a response as to what one thinks is the end goal of the current tariffs in a general sense. With that being one extreme. But was never about retail stock strategy, anyone’s pensions, etc

Opportunity for insiders only if  this is a short term play as they will know never the public.

But there are multiple possibilities. So meant as a thought exercise really.  No one has opinions on any short to long term   objectives to this move around tariffs.

As to the original hope on soliciting thoughts. The tariffs should have the goal to reduce the US dollar which would have specific effects. many of them positive of it plays out like it needs to mid to long term. We never saw deflation after the pandemic. just ever increasing costs. We may see initial increase in inflation, but the longer term with reduced dollar values and decreased demand should see things improve.

But I don’t think the american public will be able to tolerate short term pain for long term gains. Especially with the left media will playing up the pain as distain for current admin..

The seemingly extreme #’s and visuals presented seem more constant with this being a short term tactic to drive negotiation to get more favorable tariffs applied to american goods. If so, than market manipulation could be of more concern.

I don’t know. There is a plan. curious what others may think it is. 

 

 

[DraxTheDad]

If you're trying to make money short term; then you're having a bad day.   Look at it long term, you should be investing in stocks that have long term potential anyway. So you lost 10% in 2 days, big deal.   As long as you're holding for years, they are going to recover at some point.   Yeah, it sucks to watch them go down, but good, long term stable companies that make 5 to 10% year over year is what you should be looking for.  In the end you'll be better off.

[DRD]

Friday, April 4, 2025.

SP500

S&P 500

5074.08

-322.44

-5.97

 

The falling knife is falling faster.

[Grayfox54]

I've never understood the stock market and have never been interested in learning. Maybe my retirement fund is playing, but personally I don't. I don't trust anything that can be manipulated and I think that's exactly what's happening here. Trump is playing some kind of game with these tariffs to make himself and his rich friends even richer. 

[gregintenn]

4 hours ago, Grayfox54 said:

I've never understood the stock market and have never been interested in learning. Maybe my retirement fund is playing, but personally I don't. I don't trust anything that can be manipulated and I think that's exactly what's happening here. Trump is playing some kind of game with these tariffs to make himself and his rich friends even richer. 

The stock market has always fascinated me, and it has saved me decades of work.

[DRD]

The stock market does not trade on fundamentals.  It trades on sentiment.  For the past several years, sentiment, fueled by an endless money printing by the Federal Reserve, has been wildly optimistic.

That is why, even after last week's small haircut, the S&P 500 still maintains a P/E ratio over 25. This indicates the stock market is seriously overbought.

Will sentiment change in the extreme to the negative? Will we have a "crash" caused by a "panic" and enter true bear market territory?  Who knows? 

Tomorrow may be a wild rollercoaster of a ride.  Or maybe not.  

Better buckle up.

 

[45guy]

On 4/4/2025 at 9:52 AM, DraxTheDad said:

If you're trying to make money short term; then you're having a bad day.   Look at it long term, you should be investing in stocks that have long term potential anyway. So you lost 10% in 2 days, big deal.   As long as you're holding for years, they are going to recover at some point.   Yeah, it sucks to watch them go down, but good, long term stable companies that make 5 to 10% year over year is what you should be looking for.  In the end you'll be better off.

One may lose "value" but unless you sell after a drop there is not a lose. I try not to over react one way or the other. As others have said here look long term, or that's what I keep telling myself. 

[btq96r]

Asian markets are hitting circuit breakers like New Year's celebrations whenever the time zone comes up.  Our own futures are looking ugly headed into Monday.

Hold onto your butts.

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1909072078579572971?t=Exwrhc0npJ9niPb6Di2Aew&s=19

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by btq96r

[DraxTheDad]

Just looked at the 50+ stocks I am watching and everything is recovering nicely so far today.  I think only 2 are down.   

[DraxTheDad]

Update : Stocks retreating again.  Nice big bump there.

[gregintenn]

A fella can buy and sell at about whatever price he chooses today. It's a wild world on Wall Street today.