Are Gun Rebates a Sign of a Slowing Economy?

[eRay]

I am getting a lot of emails from gun retailers and just about all of them are pushing manufacturers rebate offers. It seems just about all of them are offering $100 rebates on new firearms. Smith & Wesson, Ruger and CZ are a few I saw on this morning's email scan. The last couple of years many models have been hard to find. Now everything seems to be in stock everyplace you check. It also seems to me like used gun sales on the forum may be slowing as well.

I look at guns as mostly a non essential purchase such as furniture. Everyone has to have essentials such as food and gasoline so sales will not go drop much in a recession. Most people can get by with the old couch another year or two if money is tight. Most of us really have all the guns we need and can get by with what we have now. Anything we buy now is a want and not a need. So, are gun sales the warning sign of a coming recession?

[RED333]

I feel the firearm manufacturers are seeing the trend over the past few years of uptick in purchasing a firearm. I believe they’re just getting on the bandwagon. Be it a little slow.

[JohnSutton1980]

When it comes to guns, I don’t believe there is a difference in want and need. …just in case my wife reads this.

Ive noticed that same thing with the rebate emails. It’s hard to sale a gun you bought new 2 years ago when the newest model is 1-150.00 cheaper. From our classified section, it doesn’t seem to stop people from attempting this. Most of the people who keep up with pricing plus rebates know how volatile pricing or anything with our community is. Just a few weeks ago, a rumor about LC not selling to civilians skyrocketed 5.56 NATO cost from .35/round to nearly and some are way past 1.00/round. Local and online shops immediately marked their prices up although the ammo they marked up was purchased at the normal prices.  A tiny rumor made that happen. Now of course LC will not comment one way or another as far as Guns and Gadgets are reporting. Happens that way after a loser kid shoots innocents, the cost and availability of our beloved AR rifles explode also.  I just wonder if manufacturers will start a rumor to boost sales like it appears LC has done.

[FUJIMO]

I get at least 3 emails a day for "guns on sale" and have for sometime now. Most show the same discounted prices and on occasion they'll bump it with a factory rebate as well.

I don't relate it to the state of the economy however. It's more likely over run from the last dry spell we had and it's just catching up. A man could stack cheap ARs like cord wood right now. 

[eRay]

10 minutes ago, FUJIMO said:

 

I don't relate it to the state of the economy however. It's more likely over run from the last dry spell we had and it's just catching up. A man could stack cheap ARs like cord wood right now. 

Could be they are just catching up to demand. I just found it interesting that they all seem to be catching up at the same time and are starting with $100 rebates instead of $50 rebates.

[FUJIMO]

23 minutes ago, eRay said:

Could be they are just catching up to demand. I just found it interesting that they all seem to be catching up at the same time and are starting with $100 rebates instead of $50 rebates.

I thinks it's a lot like fishing. Throw your bait in for ANY fish and see what bites. I imagine production costs are a lot similar for many firearms nowadays so they gamble and the house wins either way. 

[eRay]

1 minute ago, FUJIMO said:

I thinks it's a lot like fishing. Throw your bait in for ANY fish and see what bites. I imagine production costs are a lot similar for many firearms nowadays so they gamble and the house wins either way. 

Could also be that they jacked their prices up over the last couple of years to take advantage of the inflation situation and went a bit too far. Now they may be having to correct pricing a bit to maintain market share. Could also be that all the new first time gun owners that thought they might now need one have got one and that market is declining. 

[pop pop]

I am on the side of a slight declining in sales. Black Friday usually has nothing to do with gun sales except at Bass Pro. Sometimes, they have some deals a Xmas. 

Edited to add content; My wife's money man told her the economy is tanking. Car sales are down, housing sales down, and new construction down. Sounds like problems ahead to me. At least in our area. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by pop pop

[TGO David]

Almost every manufacturer and retailer is competing for your money right now.  It's typical end of year stuff, with an unhealthy dose of recession.

Next year, being an election year, I expect gun sales to spike again.  If Biden even remotely looks to have a chance, everyone knows that the people controlling him will be lame ducks and will push for gun control.

I don't trust Republicans either, so before the usual suspects whine about me turning it political, just don't.  I don't trust any of them.  Fifty trips around the sun have given me an idea of how this [always] plays out.  Call it an educated prediction.

 

 

[TripleGGG]

I hope I at least get one more email about the Marlin Trapper 45-70 for $1199 even though they are never in stock. You can have the greatest price in the world but it's just bait if they don't have them in stock. 

I agree it's just everyone fighting for your dollar. 

[Ronald_55]

Well take a close look at some of the "Rebates". Some , like one Ruger one, are actually $100 to spend in their online merch store.

Another reason they like rebates is that anyone that forgets to send it in or can be disqualified is just money in the bank. In the past rebate processing services actually got bonuses for refusing a large percentage. 

 

[eRay]

1 hour ago, Ronald_55 said:

Well take a close look at some of the "Rebates". Some , like one Ruger one, are actually $100 to spend in their online merch store.

Another reason they like rebates is that anyone that forgets to send it in or can be disqualified is just money in the bank. In the past rebate processing services actually got bonuses for refusing a large percentage. 

 

I think you are on to something here. Probably half of the buyers never get the rebate. Their either never get around to claiming it or do not submit all the required documentation.

[TripleGGG]

It's a known fact in the retail world that only 10-30% of rebates are ever claimed. 

It's also a reason many companies use gift cards for rebates or refunds. Even if used, most will have a few dollars left on the balance that are never used. Companies save millions over the course of a year. 

[BigK]

My biggest gripes about rebates are the hoops you have to jump through often discourage follow-through and the rebate arrives so late that it's no longer tied to the purchase to feel like I got a discount.

[TripleGGG]

37 minutes ago, BigK said:

My biggest gripes about rebates are the hoops you have to jump through often discourage follow-through and the rebate arrives so late that it's no longer tied to the purchase to feel like I got a discount.

Yeah that is by design. I have a system for rebates, etc that I follow every single time. I setup reminders of when they are due and then pester companies if I've not received it. I hate the whole process but I've not missed one yet. 

[NoBanStan]

I think CZ is doing a lot of sales because they're going stagnant... which really sucks.

[No_0ne]

Although I don't disagree that certain parts of the economy (maybe most?) are slowing, I suspect the main reason for discounting guns is due to falling sales as a result of the normal "boom and bust" nature of gun and ammunition sales.  We've seen this before, many times; periods of "panic" buying and shortages followed by fire sales and increased inventories.  The next step is typically bankruptcies of some of the manufacturers ...

[BigK]

3 minutes ago, No_0ne said:

Although I don't disagree that certain parts of the economy (maybe most?) are slowing, I suspect the main reason for discounting guns is due to falling sales as a result of the normal "boom and bust" nature of gun and ammunition sales.  We've seen this before, many times; periods of "panic" buying and shortages followed by fire sales and increased inventories.  The next step is typically bankruptcies of some of the manufacturers ...

I think you're onto something about that pattern. I'm sure there'll be another crisis the anti-gun crowd can get behind. Once their stooges in DC start lobbing threats to ban this or ban that, sales will pick back up. I hope the next mass shooter uses a Hi-Point carbine and a crappy old Chinese Mosin (type 53). I'd love to unload those at a good price to free up some gun safe space.

[TGO David]

10 hours ago, NoBanStan said:

I think CZ is doing a lot of sales because they're going stagnant... which really sucks.

Agreed.  I know CZ has done layoffs here in the states in the past.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

They make a great product, but they just don't advertise their stuff very well.  I mean, is there anyone who just hates the CZ-75??  I've never met them.

 

[Hozzie]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

Agreed.  I know CZ has done layoffs here in the states in the past.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

They make a great product, but they just don't advertise their stuff very well.  I mean, is there anyone who just hates the CZ-75??  I've never met them.

 

And if they do hate it, I don't need to be friends with them

[BigK]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

Agreed.  I know CZ has done layoffs here in the states in the past.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

They make a great product, but they just don't advertise their stuff very well.  I mean, is there anyone who just hates the CZ-75??  I've never met them.

 

Spot on about everyone loving their nearly 50 year old pistol design. It's working for 1911s, why not CZ-75 variants. I think that's what's keeping their pistol business alive. Sadly, a lot of new shooters only want polymer striker fired handguns and CZ's attempt at that flopped really bad. 

[Ronald_55]

20 hours ago, TripleGGG said:

Yeah that is by design. I have a system for rebates, etc that I follow every single time. I setup reminders of when they are due and then pester companies if I've not received it. I hate the whole process but I've not missed one yet. 

I used to do tons of rebates on computer stuff on Black Friday. I had a piece of software to store all the info and images. It created a calendar to go by. Wish I still had it. It was freeware long ago. I think I missed out on 1 rebate out of dozens. I still kick myself about that $5. I have also put 75 cents of gas in my car to empty a rebate card. lol

[TripleGGG]

1 hour ago, Ronald_55 said:

I used to do tons of rebates on computer stuff on Black Friday. I had a piece of software to store all the info and images. It created a calendar to go by. Wish I still had it. It was freeware long ago. I think I missed out on 1 rebate out of dozens. I still kick myself about that $5. I have also put 75 cents of gas in my car to empty a rebate card. lol

I've done the same on rebate cards. It's not the money, it's the principle of it. Haha

[deerslayer]

10 hours ago, BigK said:

Spot on about everyone loving their nearly 50 year old pistol design. It's working for 1911s, why not CZ-75 variants. I think that's what's keeping their pistol business alive. Sadly, a lot of new shooters only want polymer striker fired handguns and CZ's attempt at that flopped really bad. 

What's wrong with the P10?  They hold their own in the competitive world and I know several people who carry a P10C.

[deerslayer]

12 hours ago, TGO David said:

Agreed.  I know CZ has done layoffs here in the states in the past.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

They make a great product, but they just don't advertise their stuff very well.  I mean, is there anyone who just hates the CZ-75??  I've never met them.

 

CZ has been a little wobbly since Colt bought them.  I know a couple people who recently left the company.