AMOC Might Be About to Collapse

[Moped]

Interesting article in USA Today that sorta falls in line with the 2004 movie The Day After Tomorrow... Figured most that come here to this forum, have seen that movie.  If not, I highly recommend it!

Anyway, the gest of the Article is that the Atlantic Ocean current system is becoming unstable enough that it might stop all together, which would have an extreme effect on the weather over North America and Europe.

Time to lay in some cold weather gear!!!

Study warns of 'irreversible transition' in ocean currents that could rapidly freeze parts of North America (msn.com)

[Smith]

Thing is those currents have shifted before. Part of the reason you can find palm trees on the northern cost of Scotland. Not every change is the end of the world.

[Erik88]

Who was it here that said these are the good times? There has to be some truth to that. 

 

I read some comments from a climate scientist a few years ago that really stuck with me. He had a very grim outlook for the world. The gist of it was that even if countries like China and the US make major strides to cut down on carbon emissions it won't matter a lot because there are so many developing countries that will use more resources in the future as their standard of living improves. I'll probably die before things get a lot worse but I feel bad for the next few generations. 

[Smith]

15 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Who was it here that said these are the good times? There has to be some truth to that. 

 

I read some comments from a climate scientist a few years ago that really stuck with me. He had a very grim outlook for the world. The gist of it was that even if countries like China and the US make major strides to cut down on carbon emissions it won't matter a lot because there are so many developing countries that will use more resources in the future as their standard of living improves. I'll probably die before things get a lot worse but I feel bad for the next few generations. 

One thing those prognosticators tend to forget is that as countries become more developed, through the use of those resources, they inevitably become more aware and conservative with those resources once they become developed. Short term bad, long term good. 

It's an odd short term sacrifice for a long term gain. The other way is a long term burn out. 

[Moped]

47 minutes ago, Smith said:

Thing is those currents have shifted before. Part of the reason you can find palm trees on the northern cost of Scotland. Not every change is the end of the world.

I look at it more as a warning to get ready for what's coming. It's not going to be the end of man, but it might mark in a change in the way we do things here and a marked change in the population distribution, through the planet. 

We worry about terrorism and wars, but when you stop and think about it, changes in weather and other natural phenomona have had a much more profound affect on life on Earth, than anything else.

 

17 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Who was it here that said these are the good times? There has to be some truth to that. 

 

I read some comments from a climate scientist a few years ago that really stuck with me. He had a very grim outlook for the world. The gist of it was that even if countries like China and the US make major strides to cut down on carbon emissions it won't matter a lot because there are so many developing countries that will use more resources in the future as their standard of living improves. I'll probably die before things get a lot worse but I feel bad for the next few generations. 

I agree  Erik.  But it also might happen while we are still alive.  

[Smith]

1 hour ago, Moped said:

I look at it more as a warning to get ready for what's coming. It's not going to be the end of man, but it might mark in a change in the way we do things here and a marked change in the population distribution, through the planet. 

We worry about terrorism and wars, but when you stop and think about it, changes in weather and other natural phenomona have had a much more profound affect on life on Earth, than anything else.

This is very true. There were massive population shifts in Europe and Africa the most recent time this happened. While it caused famines, diseases/epidemics, and a major structural change in agriculture and population centers in (specifically) the medieval Europea continent, it also lead to the industrial revolution and the modern world. Likewise in the far east and middle east. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. It's hard to tell what ingenuity man comes up with as we adapt to an ever changing world. The only thing that is certain is that we have always progressed from adversity.

[gregintenn]

Ask yourself how many times these prognosticators of impending doom and gloom have been correct thus far. 

[user1776]

Weather, if it changes, will certainly affect life on earth. But let's not ever discount the DRAMATIC impact humans can have on one another...
Alexander the Great taking over a huge swath of the world... Napoleon... Hitler... Mao's Cultural Revolution... Stalin's purges of ethncities... Pol Pot's genocides... Genghis Khan and the Mongol Horde... the United States cold war and banana republics... the British Empire... etc. etc. 
Each of these people or countries dramatically changed the lives of hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions of people in the areas affected, led to many people dying, changed culture, and certainly had many other effects I'm not thinking about. 

[TennesseeCamper]

They have talked about this theory before, long before the glaciers started turning into ice water. 
It seems like it might be closer to reality now.

This old earth has been through so many catastrophic changes. Life on earth has been nearly wiped out and started over more than once. We have only been here for the blink of eye. The earth will go through many more remakes, reformations.  
Like the title says in the science fiction book by George R Stewart ,  “Earth Abides” . 
 

[ReeferMac]

On 8/6/2021 at 9:02 AM, Smith said:

 Not every change is the end of the world.

Good GAWD if people would just realize this....

The world is filled with all kinds of folks. Some good, some bad, some in-between. Some of those folks, will take advantage of any situation they are able to; they will lie, cheat, steal, and stretch the truth to fit whatever it is their little heart desires.  The reasons are varied and as unique as the individuals, but to deny the fact that it is the truth isn't just ignorant, its harmful. Since the dawn of time, man has conflated situations to foster their goals. I'm sure at some point Grok gaslit the rest of the clan into attacking their neighbors. We've always been at war with EastAsia!

I dunno why some folks just can't see it....

[gregintenn]

Weather is cyclical. It really isn’t any more complicated than that.

[Omega]

7 hours ago, gregintenn said:

Weather is cyclical. It really isn’t any more complicated than that.

That is a surety, but I have been researching a bit on ancient technologies and am more and more convinced that we were not the first technologically advanced civilization here on earth.  I am starting to believe that the dinosaurs were not the only ones to be wiped out by natural occurrences. and it may yet happen again.  I don't really believe any of this global warming/cooling is something manmade, only exploited by man.  

[JustEd]

Not a new theory.  There has been documentation of the melting ice causing the gulf current to shift further south.

As to a sudden climatic shift like in the movie...well that was HOLLYWOOD!

[Erik88]

I just don't understand how so many can say this is happening naturally and that we don't have at least some hand in it. I'm not denying that Earth has experienced climate changes throughout history but we've gone from 3.7B to 7.8B people in just the past 50 years. There is no way that hasn't had a negative impact. I guess we'll find out one way or another. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Erik88

[gregintenn]

2 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

I just don't understand how so many can say this is happening naturally and that we don't have at least some hand in it. I'm not denying that Earth has experienced climate changes throughout history but we've gone from 3.7B to 7.8B people in just the past 50 years. There is no way that hasn't had a negative impact. I guess we'll find out one way or another. 

I don't understand the arrogance of people who think they are important enough to be able to change things like the weather.

[peejman]

While I agree with @Erik88 that the global population and our actions have influenced climate change, to @gregintenn's  point, only human arrogance is big enough to think its entirely ours to do or undo.

The global climate is far too complicated a thing to have any confidence in our ability to predict long term change.  There's plenty of things we can do that we currently believe to be directionally correct. But those directions are likely to continue to change as our knowledge base increases. 

[gregintenn]

Pardon me. I’ve lost my page. Is it global warming or the ‘rona that’s gonna get me first?

[Garufa]

1 minute ago, gregintenn said:

Pardon me. I’ve lost my page. Is it global warming or the ‘rona that’s gonna get me first?

Both, along with a long list of other new issues.

[Wheelgunner]

The more you value things outside your control, the less control you have.  - Epictetus

[Swamp ash]

On 8/10/2021 at 8:57 AM, gregintenn said:

I don't understand the arrogance of people who think they are important enough to be able to change things like the weather.

It must be arrogance to apply physics...

It is simple math to calculate the volume of human CO2 emissions and subsequently derive a value for the heat retention of this additional gas.

And we KNOW the atmosphere has absolute CO2 increases and we can further attribute these to human releases because the isotopic value of carbon in the atmosphere has become lighter. 

And this is just one part of the system we are altering.

[hipower]

On 8/6/2021 at 8:33 AM, Erik88 said:

Who was it here that said these are the good times? There has to be some truth to that. 

 

I read some comments from a climate scientist a few years ago that really stuck with me. He had a very grim outlook for the world. The gist of it was that even if countries like China and the US make major strides to cut down on carbon emissions it won't matter a lot because there are so many developing countries that will use more resources in the future as their standard of living improves. I'll probably die before things get a lot worse but I feel bad for the next few generations. 

The apocalypse must be near. I'm agreeing with you, Erik88.   

[gregintenn]

1 hour ago, Swamp ash said:

It must be arrogance to apply physics...

It is simple math to calculate the volume of human CO2 emissions and subsequently derive a value for the heat retention of this additional gas.

And we KNOW the atmosphere has absolute CO2 increases and we can further attribute these to human releases because the isotopic value of carbon in the atmosphere has become lighter. 

And this is just one part of the system we are altering.

Carbon Dioxide is NOT a pollutant. It is, for lack of a better term, plant food. Folks who operate commercial greenhouses pump it into their greenhouses to increase production. Without it, we'd have nothing to eat.

Carbon and carbon dioxide are two different things.

[AuEagle]

[Swamp ash]

9 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Carbon Dioxide is NOT a pollutant. It is, for lack of a better term, plant food. Folks who operate commercial greenhouses pump it into their greenhouses to increase production. Without it, we'd have nothing to eat.

Carbon and carbon dioxide are two different things.

I'm sorry about your distraction, but please understand you can drown with too much water, too.

PS, water vapor is actually a huge player in this mess, BUT, perturbing parts of the system (i.e carbon) changes other parts of the system, because according to thermodynamics, there is no physical or chemical action without a requisite reaction.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Swamp ash

[ReeferMac]

I agree with you in sentiment @Swamp ash, but disagree with the conclusion.

In any system with lots of inputs, altering any one, will have an impact on the system. I think we are in agreement there?

Where I find we disagree, is the connection drawn between human activity and catastrophic collapse of said system (whether that connection is direct and linear, or complex and convoluted). 

I mean, everyone knows that if a butterfly in Japan flaps its wings just right, there will be a typhoon in California, right?

Personally I think of us humans as the ants building mounds in my pasture. Sure, you can argue they are making an impact on their environment (the mound disrupts water flow, other insects, plants, animals, etc.).. but then my Exmark comes by and you realize they're just ants.

To think we're actually impacting the galactic history of the 3rd rock from the sun is some hubris. 

While it may be logically argued current conditions are measured to be different than.... we're looking at a forest with a microscope and trying to draw conclusions about the entire field of botany.

We and all of our fossil fuels were here eons ago; asteroids and solar radiation aside, Earth is a pretty closed system. Carbon is sequestered, carbon is released (Photosynthesis/Krebs cycle). If you think giving more of your money to a bunch of bureaucrats is going to change anything about that, you are free to do so. But don't think for one second that gives you the right to preach to me or anyone else about a field of science we as humans don't know dick about. It wasn't but 500 years ago our best and brightest thought the earth was flat and the center of our universe. Today those same minds think they've got something as complicated as global weather patterns figured out (and quote records going back those same 500 years - wonder if they've been adjusted for heliocentricity?)