Troubling News

[Randall53]

I suppose we just wait and see.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/05/24/heres-why-it-could-take-years-for-ammunition-to-become-readily-available-again-n2589901

 

[Raoul]

Meh.

[Dirtshooter]

Well that sounds about right, maybe even longer. We went to south Alabama and I noticed a pretty good stock of 12 ga. birdshot, haven't seen hardly any around here. So I think it will be hit or miss, for a long, long time.

[Quavodus]

Yeah, sad sad times to be a shooter, or handloader.......

[No_0ne]

This is why you stockpile (hoard) when things are available ...

[No_0ne]

 

I'm often reminded of this whenever these periodic shortages occur ...

[gregintenn]

Fear sells. You won't find many good news articles, truth be damned. I wouldn't put much weight in that story. What's about to happen is the entire economy is about to crash. That'll make ammo available again.....if you have anything left to buy it with.

[No_0ne]

5 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Fear sells. You won't find many good news articles, truth be damned. I wouldn't put much weight in that story. What's about to happen is the entire economy is about to crash. That'll make ammo available again.....if you have anything left to buy it with.

I don't know about the economy, but the article simply states that their production is sold out for the next two years.  However, that means that ammo stores, online retailers, distributors, etc. have placed orders for two years worth of production, not that ammo won't be available for two years.  Those stores, distributors, retailers or whatever will sell this ammo to someone, somewhere, at some price.  My take on it is that it will be at least two years before there's any chance of a supply glut such as that seen the last few years, when prices dropped precipitously and ammo was available most anywhere.  That is of course assuming that demand remains constant, which is and of itself not certain, there are many factors which affect demand, price being only one of those.  My best guess is that by fall, we'll see more ammo begin to appear in stock and prices will gradually fall back to what most consider "normal", whatever that means. 

It's interesting to note that Hornady mentioned using only "hundreds of pounds" of copper (per month?).  Given the daily production of most ammo manufacturers, I would have assumed that their copper requirements were much larger than that.  In the bigger scheme of things, "hundreds of pounds" of copper isn't all that much.  It's also notable that economists have long consider copper prices one of the best leading economic indicators, when prices are rising the economy generally grows over the next six months to a year.  In that sense, rising copper prices would seem to show that the economy will continue to improve over the rest of this year ...

[Raoul]

I don't think it's wise to get yer panties in a wad just yet. At this point it's all just a guess. And if you're the kind of shooter who runs to wallyworld the night before you go shooting I have just one word for you.

Archery

[Garufa]

6 minutes ago, Raoul said:

I don't think it's wise to get yer panties in a wad just yet.

There is absolutely no reason one should get too twisted over it as there is not a single thing whatsoever they can do about it. 

[gregintenn]

48 minutes ago, Raoul said:

I don't think it's wise to get yer panties in a wad just yet. At this point it's all just a guess. And if you're the kind of shooter who runs to wallyworld the night before you go shooting I have just one word for you.

Archery

WalMart got arrows?

[Dirtshooter]

1 hour ago, gregintenn said:

WalMart got arrows?

Yep!!

 

I was watching youtube T.V and saw a newscast from Tulsa from last month and they interviewed a gunshop owner and he said his distributor told him to turn in an order for next year. He alluded to the fact it may be next year before things get better. I ain't worried, I am trying to get a buddy to go shooting Thursday, and have another range trip scheduled for next Tuesday.

[Grayfox54]

I believe I'm good for at least two years. But I'm not shooting as much as I used to either. 

On 5/25/2021 at 4:42 PM, gregintenn said:

What's about to happen is the entire economy is about to crash.

This is my fear. Congress just keeps on spending billions and trillions of our tax dollars like it was water. This can't go on without major economic repercussions. 

[No_0ne]

1 hour ago, Grayfox54 said:

I believe I'm good for at least two years. But I'm not shooting as much as I used to either. 

This is my fear. Congress just keeps on spending billions and trillions of our tax dollars like it was water. This can't go on without major economic repercussions. 

I'm fully prepared for hyperinflation - I already own a wheelbarrow for hauling my $1 million bills to the grocery store ...

[Dirtshooter]

5 hours ago, No_0ne said:

I'm fully prepared for hyperinflation - I already own a wheelbarrow for hauling my $1 million bills to the grocery store ...

Keep it and use it for T.P. because it ain't worth much more than that.

[No_0ne]

2 minutes ago, Dirtshooter said:

Keep it and use it for T.P. because it ain't worth much more than that.

At one point in the 20's, many Germans employed old Reichmark notes as wallpapers ...

[1gewehr]

It seems that a ship from Russia just docked.  Wolf ammo in most calibers is available at a lot of places now.  Price is down a bit, but not where it makes me want to spend my money.

[No_0ne]

30 minutes ago, 1gewehr said:

It seems that a ship from Russia just docked.  Wolf ammo in most calibers is available at a lot of places now.  Price is down a bit, but not where it makes me want to spend my money.

It might have come in via Russia, but it's more likely that any Wolf ammo brought in now is coming in from other European countries.  A lot of Wolf is now manufactured outside Russia.  The Tula arms plant is pretty much defunct now in terms of supplying ammunition to the US, as its owners have been included in several of the "prohibited persons" lists compiled during the last few administrations ...

[Mowgli Terry]

I cannot understand why S&B and PPU primers and the like have not shown up here in any numbers. We are getting some Shooters World Powders.

My solution is to shoot less. I can always shoot my muzzleloaders. There's plenty #11's and musket caps in my outbuilding.

[No_0ne]

1 hour ago, Mowgli-Terry said:

I cannot understand why S&B and PPU primers and the like have not shown up here in any numbers. We are getting some Shooters World Powders.

My solution is to shoot less. I can always shoot my muzzleloaders. There's plenty #11's and musket caps in my outbuilding.

There are several reasons why foreign made ammo and components are also in short supply.  One, there's been (and continues to be) a worldwide shipping/logistics logjam, due to the pandemic, border restrictions, tariffs, bans and other geopolitical problems.  Second, ammo (and components for loading and manufacturing ammo) is in high demand everywhere, due to ongoing conflicts in many areas of the world.  A huge amount of ammo is being consumed in the middle east and elsewhere because of these wars and insurrections, and these combatants are well-financed and flush with cash.  For example, remaining supplies of older 7.62x54r have been flowing into the middle east for years, as MG's and various other weapons there utilize this caliber, and both sides are bidding higher prices than US importers are willing to pay for whatever sources are available.  The same is true for most popular calibers.  We're in a global marketplace for ammunition, and much of the foreign supply is made or stored in countries with poor relations with the US, and we're being outbid for the rest ...

[Mowgli Terry]

It's hard to believe that we are outbid for primers and the like.   I sold old Wolf primes on GB for $200.00 per M. I could not sell  those  small rifle magnums for $15.00 per M before the Pandemic.                                                                        

[No_0ne]

1 hour ago, Mowgli-Terry said:

It's hard to believe that we are outbid for primers and the like.   I sold old Wolf primes on GB for $200.00 per M. I could not sell  those  small rifle magnums for $15.00 per M before the Pandemic.                                                                        

Except you're not a bonded importer (at least that's my assumption), those are the folks bidding for ammo and components.  They also have to contend with shipping, customs (both out of Europe and into the US), various laws and regulations, etc.  In addition, as I pointed out, a lot of ammo and components are found in countries which are not very friendly with the US, most of their products aren't for sale to us at any price.  Finally, primer manufacturers have long term contracts with ammo manufacturing facilities (and are often owned by ammo companies), those orders get filled before any additional supplies are listed on the open market.  Supplying relatively small quantities to resellers for Gunbroker, or reloaders in the US, is a long way down the priority lists for these suppliers ...

[Dirtshooter]

Aren't most if not all primer manufacturers also ammo mfgs? They use most of the primers to load for those that can't or won't load their own.  Folks that reload are at the bottom of the heap and are offered the leftovers.

[Mowgli Terry]

On 5/28/2021 at 7:27 PM, No_0ne said:

Except you're not a bonded importer (at least that's my assumption), those are the folks bidding for ammo and components. 

I have seen the elephants dance and the world's fair but this tops all. It is, indeed, a world of wonderment's.

Edited May 30, 2021 by Mowgli-Terry
Needed to regain my composure!

[1gewehr]

The lead time for importing ammunition is years.  It can take a year just to get the State Department to approve each shipment.  And I'm sure the Biden administration has no interest in speeding it up.

I'm sure that foreign manufacturers are VERY eager to ship as much as possible while prices and demand are high.