U-Haul says TN saw the most one way rentals in 2020

[Erik88]

If we use U-Haul as a guide, more people moved to Tennessee than any other state in 2020. They neasure this by the amount of one way rentals they had.

And no, it's not really CA refugees that are the biggest problem. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tennessean.com/amp/4130347001

 

Top 10 states Tennessee bound U-Haul truck customers came from in 2020

1. Florida

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. North Carolina

5. Kentucky

6. Texas

7. Virginia

8. Mississippi

9. Ohio

10. Illinois

(California is No. 16)

I've mentioned my wife and I are trying to buy a house. The situation in Knoxville is horrible and alarming. Knoxville is 7th in the nation for increase in home prices over 2019. In November, prices were up 20% YOY while supply is down 30% according to a Knox news article I found. 

A friend of ours bought a home in 2018 for $350k. It was new construction. Their neighbors just sold a nearly identical house for $500k.

I saw someone else mention they put in an offer on a house in Knoxville for $15k over asking price and they didn't get it. The seller had nearly 20 offers.

My wife wants to build. I don't want to build. I think we're going to compromise and build. 

 

[peejman]

18 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

If we use U-Haul as a guide, more people moved to Tennessee than any other state in 2020. They neasure this by the amount of one way rentals they had.

And no, it's not really CA refugees that are the biggest problem. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tennessean.com/amp/4130347001

 

Top 10 states Tennessee bound U-Haul truck customers came from in 2020

1. Florida

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. North Carolina

5. Kentucky

6. Texas

7. Virginia

8. Mississippi

9. Ohio

10. Illinois

(California is No. 16)

I've mentioned my wife and I are trying to buy a house. The situation in Knoxville is horrible and alarming. Knoxville is 7th in the nation for increase in home prices over 2019. In November, prices were up 20% YOY while supply is down 30% according to a Knox news article I found. 

A friend of ours bought a home in 2018 for $350k. It was new construction. Their neighbors just sold a nearly identical house for $500k.

I saw someone else mention they put in an offer on a house in Knoxville for $15k over asking price and they didn't get it. The seller had nearly 20 offers.

My wife wants to build. I don't want to build. I think we're going to compromise and build. 

 

Good luck finding a builder, they're booked years out and the cost of materials is climbing just like house prices. A fixer upper is your best value right now. 

We saw a house in our neighborhood get flipped recently.  The price they got for it made my wife say "we should sell and move!"    Yes dear, but then we have to buy back into this crazy market.  "Oh."

 

[Erik88]

2 minutes ago, peejman said:

A fixer upper is your best value right now

In theory. Even the gut jobs are overpriced and they all receive multiple offers. We're talking a house for $250k that needs $75k in upgrades. I also want a 2 car garage which makes an already low inventory even worse.

I've spoken to two builders already that are 6-12 months out. $180-200 sq ft is the going rate to build. 

[peejman]

6 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

In theory. Even the gut jobs are overpriced and they all receive multiple offers. We're talking a house for $250k that needs $75k in upgrades. I also want a 2 car garage which makes an already low inventory even worse.

I've spoken to two builders already that are 6-12 months out. $180-200 sq ft is the going rate to build. 

Yeah, that's madness. 

We bought just before the 2008 slump. A bunch of years went by where I would've lost up to $50k had i needed to sell. One of my neighbors did lose about $40k, but they had no choice. I was glad to see prices finally come back to where i wouldn't lose my arse, but where it's gone is crazy. 

One of my coworkers just bought in a new development. He won't say what they paid, but its close to $400k.  To me, that's crazy for a young couple wanting to start a family.  They have no idea how expensive life is about to get. 

But back to the topic of your thread, I'd guess most people moving from further than a days drive aren't renting a U-haul to get here. A POD or similar would be much cheaper. 

[Erik88]

1 hour ago, peejman said:

But back to the topic of your thread, I'd guess most people moving from further than a days drive aren't renting a U-haul to get here. A POD or similar would be much cheaper. 

That's a good point that I didn't consider. 

[jpx2rk]

GL on your decision to build.  Keep us informed on how smoothly that goes.  Been there, done that, not gonna do it again.    Wife and daughter (who lives in Knoxville) want "us" to move to Knoxville, I'm not the least bit interested in that idea.  Told 'em I would go on a 2 week trip somewhere while "they" moved everything, ain't moved yet.  

[eRay]

I decided to have a new house built on the lake in Lenoir City. It was a constant stress headache for a year while building and ran 20% over budget. If I had it to do over I would buy one already built. Good luck and I hope your build goes smoother than mine did.

[btq96r]

I'm looking for a house now too, and all I can come away with is being underwhelmed for my budget range.  The idea of making such a huge decision on what amounts to acceptable rather than something to be enthusiastic about isn't one I'm enjoying. 

[Erik88]

5 minutes ago, btq96r said:

I'm looking for a house now too, and all I can come away with is being underwhelmed for my budget range.  The idea of making such a huge decision on what amounts to acceptable rather than something to be enthusiastic about isn't one I'm enjoying. 

Same. If we build we will at least get what we want. It sounds like we're going to overpay either way. I can't even find a decent house to fix up if we were to go that route. 

[aknifemaker]

Yes we are political refugees from New Yorkistan, started building last year, should be done soon. Price of the build went up by $40k from January of last year when we bought land to when we started building in July. Not just materials but trying to get crews in can be tough.

 

[peejman]

11 hours ago, btq96r said:

I'm looking for a house now too, and all I can come away with is being underwhelmed for my budget range.  The idea of making such a huge decision on what amounts to acceptable rather than something to be enthusiastic about isn't one I'm enjoying. 

 

11 hours ago, Erik88 said:

Same. If we build we will at least get what we want. It sounds like we're going to overpay either way. I can't even find a decent house to fix up if we were to go that route. 

 

We've settled for every house we've bought. They've all got issues, but both times we got frustrated and just picked the one we thought was best. I'm not sure you'll even get exactly what you want having one built. My coworker who bought the $400k house is already changing floors and such.  I helped my parents build their retirement home while I was in college and there's plenty of things they wish they'd done differently.  

A house is a project that's never done. It may be good enough at some point, but its never perfect. 

On a more positive note, another coworker just showed me a house he's going to look at today. Its decidedly stuck in the 70's, but appears to be functional with good bones. And its less than $100/sqft.  

[Erik88]

2 minutes ago, peejman said:

My coworker who bought the $400k house is already changing floors and such. 

If he bought in a development he didn't buy a custom home. They normally only let you pick from a small list. We'll be picking the floors. I hear what you are saying though. Maybe Maryville's market is in better shape than Knoxville. That home stuck in the 70's will have over a dozen offers if it's priced right. 

 

[FUJIMO]

I'm pretty sure I commented on this before but I'll tell again. I started a project prior to Rona, 3-1-20 or somewhere thereabout. Over the course of it I watched prices increase exponentially. Much like the ammo and component increase we are seeing now everything tied to building has doubled or more. Sheeting went to 2 1/2 times from March to September. Once I got to a good stopping point I did. I'm missing a roof over one section but I can live it for the time being.

I have a relative now wanting to move out of the city and is running into the same issue many of you are. I've cautioned them to give it some time if they can. I'm no real estate expert but I was in construction during the 2008 housing $hitstorm and this has a similar feeling to it.

Good luck to all you guys whichever way you may go.

[peejman]

2 hours ago, Erik88 said:

If he bought in a development he didn't buy a custom home. They normally only let you pick from a small list. We'll be picking the floors. I hear what you are saying though. Maybe Maryville's market is in better shape than Knoxville. That home stuck in the 70's will have over a dozen offers if it's priced right. 

 

It wasn't full custom, but they went through pages and pages of options.... floor plan, floors, cabinets, lights, appliances, ...  They've just changed their mind and decided to pull up carpet and put down hard floor in a couple rooms. Its somewhere near Hardin Valley rd. The older house is on the outskirts of Oak Ridge. 

[Grayfox54]

I've posted before about my younger son and his new bride's frustrations at trying to buy a house. They looked for months and kept getting out bid. They finally are having one built. Current projections have a move in date of early March. But even then, they're cutting costs by doing some stuff themselves, like painting. So actual move in will take a bit longer. However, so far its going well. 

The problem here is that nobody wants to live inside the Memphis city limits.  Memphis is a cesspool and people can't get out fast enough.  However, that's where the jobs are. So the suburbs are very popular here. You can actually find houses to buy inside Memphis, but nobody wants those. My son's new house will actually be about 20 miles outside the city. And that's about as close as anybody is going to get these days. 

 

[Grayfox54]

And about the U-Haul thing... Consider this. Those moving here by U-Haul are the folks too poor to hire a moving company. I fear we may be acquiring other states problem children.  

[Erik88]

2 minutes ago, Grayfox54 said:

And about the U-Haul thing... Consider this. Those moving here by U-Haul are the folks too poor to hire a moving company. I fear we may be acquiring other states problem children.  

Possibly, but I bet most of the people moving here are working(middle) class. Poor people likely can't even afford a U-Haul. Look at every major hurricane going back to Katrina. You had people too poor to even evacuate. 

[E4 No More]

36 minutes ago, Grayfox54 said:

And about the U-Haul thing... Consider this. Those moving here by U-Haul are the folks too poor to hire a moving company. I fear we may be acquiring other states problem children.  

Many people moving great distances will hire a mover for most of their stuff and take some things in a U-Haul because of logistics. Many people also do not trust movers, or can't find movers in conjunction with their timing. Some are military members that aren't of high enough rank to have the military move them. I'm sure there are more reasons than I just listed that are not due to being poor.

[Erich]

I feel your pain. So much resonates with earlier houses and that feeling market prices will escalate forever which drove you to settling. Like Fujimo, my sense is not sustainable. History is on our side, and the minor correction that started at the end of 2019 was quickly erased and forgotten as the CV influence changed the housing market. 

While senses and history says wait it out and get twice as much, its tougher today because of one important variable that never existed in past bubbles. CV has signficant taken out the requirement of being  "closer to work"  that kept rural buys reasonable. We are currently getting land pressure from those that can work remote as CV has proven that remote workers are more than viable and companies now see the light of cost savings in overhead.

We moved here in 2018, having taken me about 5 years of pleading with my wife to leave CA. I got the green light summer 2017 to put our house up for sale. Over that time, really starting in 2016, I was watching prices out here. They seem to really ramp up in the beginning of 2017. I did some scouting trips and at that time felt prices were high based on having seen the recent jumps from earlier in 2017. I should have jumped on some contingent offers, but I was seeing, even back then, homes with any land that were decent sold in a day.

If it makes you feel any better, yes today is worse due to CV having rocked the market, but its really been noticably bad for a bit longer so dont feel you've just recently missed it. We are renting and paying waaay more than we should because landlords can. Setting a pile of money on fire every month is painful.

At this point I am committed to staying the course and sitting on the equity from our CA home hoping post CV reality will take hold. Especially when .gov powers down the money printing presses driving the economy from crashing in on itself ala 2008. I won't settle or overpay. Worse case I will move elsewhere if the work from home crowd takes over TN because the politics will be changing soon after.

Little anecdote on selling in this market. We have a large farm house on 30 acres in very rural south GA we are selling. Some folks from hoity-toity part of Atlanta came to look at it as they are escaping the big cities. His only real question and biggest concern....can I get a high speed internet connection for work.

When that moves to the top of buyers requirements list for homes, we know we are in a different place.

[Erich]

9 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

Many people moving great distances will hire a mover for most of their stuff and take some things in a U-Haul because of logistics. Many people also do not trust movers, or can't find movers in conjunction with their timing. Some are military members that aren't of high enough rank to have the military move them. I'm sure there are more reasons than I just listed that are not due to being poor.

I was going to mention exactly that. When we moved out here we used a major moving for household goods. My 3+ tons of ammo could not be moved with home goods due to hazard limitations. I was not going to let them move my guns anyway. 1 way Uhaul was what I was looking at. But the cost renting from CA during summer was going to be more having a freight carrier move ammo after it was put on palates. I was able to being all my guns in my vehicles.

If I was closer than that, or it was another season with low demand, I would have U-hauled.

[peejman]

1 hour ago, Erich said:

When that moves to the top of buyers requirements list for homes, we know we are in a different place.

My B-i-L lost his job a few months ago. My sister's boss told her she could work for him anywhere she's got a decent internet connection.  So potentially having to move for his job has no impact on hers. 

[Darrell]

My wife and I moved to TN two years ago from Washington. I grew up there and miss the [real] mountains and saltwater, but Tennessee suits us so much better. People here have been friendly and helpful without being intrusive. The political climate suits me FAR better than what Washington has turned into.  But it sure does rain a lot here! 

We bought 20 wooded acres and built a log home. It cost a lot more than we anticipated, but in the end we think it's worth it. Resale means nothing to us, as we expect to remain here until we die. Of course I expected my last place in Washington to be our last place, too. 

Interestingly, when we started to build several of the neighbors stopped by and pretty early in the conversations we were asked about our politics. It's pretty clear that the people around me are not interested in experiencing a "Californiafication".  And I sure understand that, as Californiafication is a big part of what wrecked Washington for me.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Darrell

[robin48]

On 1/25/2021 at 10:36 AM, Grayfox54 said:

I've posted before about my younger son and his new bride's frustrations at trying to buy a house. They looked for months and kept getting out bid. They finally are having one built. Current projections have a move in date of early March. But even then, they're cutting costs by doing some stuff themselves, like painting. So actual move in will take a bit longer. However, so far its going well. 

The problem here is that nobody wants to live inside the Memphis city limits.  Memphis is a cesspool and people can't get out fast enough.  However, that's where the jobs are. So the suburbs are very popular here. You can actually find houses to buy inside Memphis, but nobody wants those. My son's new house will actually be about 20 miles outside the city. And that's about as close as anybody is going to get these days. 

 

That's my daughters issue as she wants to buy here in Tipton County and the market is crazy

[jhc77]

We bought into a new construction build in October. It was now or never on us moving cause the wife wanted something brand new. The dance I'm doing now is I don't want to move twice. Our neighborhood currently is the last budget sweet spot in the city for starting families. The way the market is around here stuff lasts mainly a week when it gets listed. About 25% of the time it's sold before a sign gets in the yard. Another plus, I stand to make 6 figures on appreciation alone not including the 15 years in equity. The market is crazy for buyers, but it worked out very well in my situation.

[Erik88]

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/608-S-Gallaher-View-Rd_Knoxville_TN_37919_M77996-31597

We looked at that house yesterday. Nice place. Amazing what they can hide in pictures though. Decided to pass. When we were there another realtor showed up to do a virtual showing for someone moving from out of state. I couldn't imagine trying to buy a house without seeing it in person. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Erik88