Poll on Ammo pricing

[DaveTN]

I’m being optimistic that it will be less than six months.

Edited December 11, 2020 by DaveTN

[Mike1000]

I reckon it will take longer as people continue to hoard way beyond their needs. At a USPSA match earlier this month one of the guys was telling us that his friend had close to a million SP primers stocked up in his garage. That sort of hoarding is what's causing most of the problems today.

[Swamp ash]

I Suspect the manufacturers will end up producing a glut of ammo and the prices will drastically drop by summer.

Just a guess.

[RED333]

5 hours ago, Swamp ash said:

I Suspect the manufacturers will end up producing a glut of ammo and the prices will drastically drop by summer.

Just a guess.

Not if hair plug Joe and Kamila toe have anything to do with it!!!

[No_0ne]

The current backlog of orders will take months, maybe as much as a year to catch up. A lot of it depends on how fast the former Remington ammo plants take to get back to running full production, many have been shuttered or running at lower capacity due to the bankruptcy proceedings. Now that the election is over, once Congress has a chance to meet and any bills are introduced and die their normal slow death, at least some of the panic buying will taper off.  We won't see early 2020 prices for a year or more, as current orders will take a while to fill and local shortages will continue.  Also, remember that the glut of ammo, guns and parts  caused prices to fall artificially low during the last 2 or 3 years, that won't happen in 2021.

As for the guy with a million primers, that sounds more like good preparation and planning than hoarding ...

[Erich]

While I hope its the short term, I had to go > 1yr.  The last time was simply fear mongering without questionable capacity. Now we have the perfect storm.

I'd also say the manufacturers learned their lesson last time. They will not push out the surpluses we saw 2014 to 2015.

[Garufa]

I hesitatingly vote a year or two and that’s being optimistic.  Actually, I think the next couple of years on into perpetuity are going to be very rough.

[QuackerSmacker]

10 minutes ago, Garufa said:

I hesitatingly vote a year or two and that’s being optimistic.  Actually, I think the next couple of years on into perpetuity are going to be very rough.

Hey Garufa, I like your new hat!

[deerslayer]

No improvement for at least a year.  More if the Dems win the GA Senate seats.  If the Republicans win GA and Biden/Harris don't make gun grabbing an immediate priority, prices and supply could stabilize somewhat in 2022.  If the Republicans don't and B/H does, it will be a long ride.  

[DL126]

For the last 6 months or so, I have been of the opinion that the only safe assumption is that  ... Whatever you have right now, is possibly all you will ever have.

Buy/use accordingly.

ETA: This includes firearms as well.

Edited December 12, 2020 by DL126

[No_0ne]

7 hours ago, DL126 said:

For the last 6 months or so, I have been of the opinion that the only safe assumption is that  ... Whatever you have right now, is possibly all you will ever have.

Buy/use accordingly.

ETA: This includes firearms as well.

But then people will call you a hoarder ...

[gregintenn]

After yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling, I have resigned to the fact that we are all screwed. I have failed my children.

[DaveTN]

1 hour ago, gregintenn said:

After yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling, I have resigned to the fact that we are all screwed. I have failed my children.

You didn’t fail your kids…. You weren’t a criminal filling out ballots and dumping them off at night to your liberal cronies at the ballot counting locations, who were busy changing ballots and pitching ballots based on signatures with no conservatives present; were you?

I was talking with my liberal sister (from Texas) the other day and told her I don’t believe the SCOTUS has the authority to do anything with that election. They sure don’t want to have anything to do with this.

The only hope we have is if the Electoral College can’t pick a winner. Then it goes to the Congress and Trump wins. But that probably won’t happen either.

In the future…. as much as I hate to say it….. Federal elections need to be overseen by the Feds; with one set of rules.

[Chucktshoes]

14 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

You didn’t fail your kids…. You weren’t a criminal filling out ballots and dumping them off at night to your liberal cronies at the ballot counting locations, who were busy changing ballots and pitching ballots based on signatures with no conservatives present; were you?

I was talking with my liberal sister (from Texas) the other day and told her I don’t believe the SCOTUS has the authority to do anything with that election. They sure don’t want to have anything to do with this.

The only hope we have is if the Electoral College can’t pick a winner. Then it goes to the Congress and Trump wins. But that probably won’t happen either.

In the future…. as much as I hate to say it….. Federal elections need to be overseen by the Feds; with one set of rules.

If the electoral college would fail to elect a President, the vote moves to the House of Representatives. I fail to see any scenario in which Trump wins there. 

[DaveTN]

Just now, Chucktshoes said:

If the electoral college would fail to elect a President, the vote moves to the House of Representatives. I fail to see any scenario in which Trump wins there. 

One state; one vote; Trump wins.

[i1afli]

20 hours ago, deerslayer said:

More if the Dems win the GA Senate seats.

If this happens then taxes, licensing/permit requirements, waiting periods, no mail order....effectively won’t be able to buy it at any price. 

[Chucktshoes]

18 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

One state; one vote; Trump wins.

Oversight on my part. Thanks for the correction. 

[No_0ne]

47 minutes ago, Chucktshoes said:

If the electoral college would fail to elect a President, the vote moves to the House of Representatives. I fail to see any scenario in which Trump wins there. 

There's no scenario where the electoral college fails to elect Biden.  The rest is moot ...

[xsubsailor]

51 minutes ago, No_0ne said:

There's no scenario where the electoral college fails to elect Biden.  The rest is moot ...

There's no scenario where the electoral college fails to elect Biden Harris.  The rest is moot ...

[Links2k]

1 hour ago, Chucktshoes said:

If the electoral college would fail to elect a President, the vote moves to the House of Representatives. I fail to see any scenario in which Trump wins there. 

Agreed.
If some want to move the goal post again and have the feds handle the presidential election we may as well go all the way and get rid of the electoral college and elect the president by popular vote. 

[No_0ne]

2 hours ago, DaveTN said:

I was talking with my liberal sister (from Texas) the other day and told her I don’t believe the SCOTUS has the authority to do anything with that election. They sure don’t want to have anything to do with this.

And that's a good thing, a consequence of nominating and confirming conservative justices.  One of the hallmarks of conservatism in jurisprudence is a reluctance to intervene in states' internal matters, as well as a strict interpretation of constitutional law.  The SCOTUS upheld these ideals in rejecting the Texas case and their refusal to allow one state to dictate to others how to run their elections.  The Trump administration (well, along with Mitch McConnell who has probably been more instrumental in shaping the federal judiciary to be honest) has put an indelible conservative stamp on both the SCOTUS and the remainder of the Federal court system, actions which will do more to benefit the country than any of Trump's other endeavors.  However one of the consequences of seating more conservative judges is to lessen the influence that politics and politicians have on the judiciary.  This is a good thing, even if it causes Trump to have a hissy fit over this one case rejection ...

[No_0ne]

2 hours ago, DaveTN said:

In the future…. as much as I hate to say it….. Federal elections need to be overseen by the Feds; with one set of rules.

No.  There's no reason to over react in that manner, especially over a decision that the SCOTUS got right ...

[A.J. Holst]

My guess is 6-12 months.

99% of all these new gun owners will probably put the gun and any ammo in the sock drawer after "nothing happens within 30-60-90 days of ownership"

Those folks are one and done after the initial purchase.

They'll go back to their normal unaware, unarmed way of navigating the world of unknown contacts.

[Erich]

It’s a good bet that it’s not the new gun owners that are sustaining the supply problem.  While they were a good part of gun supply problems which became the media darling, they don’t think in terms of buying thousands of rounds. 

the speculators were the ones doing the heavy damage  early on, and will continue to some degree. But even they are not the ones that are going to drive this long term as their numbers are decreasing as profit margins grow.

the real problem group to keep the sustained pressure on to make this drawn out are the gun crowd who say ‘never again’.  They drain supply as it comes back and prices get more reasonable. A secondary run on hoarding. Plus those stock piling for future speculation.

[hipower]

On 12/11/2020 at 9:20 AM, Mike1000 said:

I reckon it will take longer as people continue to hoard way beyond their needs. At a USPSA match earlier this month one of the guys was telling us that his friend had close to a million SP primers stocked up in his garage. That sort of hoarding is what's causing most of the problems today.

So your point is that one person should not be able to purchase any amount he or she can legally buy? If the statement is correct, this person is a  "shooter" and saw that his needs and supplies might be cut off; so he prepared himself for that event. This is wrong?

Do you have any "extra" ammo above and beyond your "reasonable shooting needs" stored away? And who decides what "reasonable needs are?

No, I have to disagree with you on this. You probably, at least you should be, keeping a bit of extra foods and other supplies in your home. Who decides what amount of that is reasonable?

YOU.

So while I might envy a person's preparedness, I will not besmirch him for it.