Stock traders on TGO

[QuackerSmacker]

On 4/22/2022 at 11:30 PM, Erik88 said:

I'm just thankful I'm not trying to buy a house right now. The 30 year fixed rate is now 6.75%.

I plugged that into my mortgage calculator and if I had that interest rate my monthly mortgage payment would be over $750 higher. Things are about to get interesting. 

Erik, I don't know where you're finding that 6.75%  30 yr rate.  That would imply a rock--bottom credit score, and I seriously doubt you're there!

Average TN 30 yr fixed rate as of today is 4.7% to 5.3% depending on various factors.   

Google these terms  "average 30 year mortgage rate today tennessee"  and you will see a multitude of loans in that range.

[Erik88]

1 hour ago, QuackerSmacker said:

Erik, I don't know where you're finding that 6.75%  30 yr rate.  That would imply a rock--bottom credit score, and I seriously doubt you're there!

Average TN 30 yr fixed rate as of today is 4.7% to 5.3% depending on various factors.   

Google these terms  "average 30 year mortgage rate today tennessee"  and you will see a multitude of loans in that range.

You're right. I'm wondering why I'm getting such different answers every time I Google it. Someone told me rates had gone over 6% last week and when I googled it, below is what came up. 

It does appear rates are less than that though so that's clearly bad info. Nerd Wallet is saying 5.35% for a 30 year fixed which is basically what you wrote. 

 

[QuackerSmacker]

42 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

You're right. I'm wondering why I'm getting such different answers every time I Google it. Someone told me rates had gone over 6% last week and when I googled it, below is what came up. 

It does appear rates are less than that though so that's clearly bad info. Nerd Wallet is saying 5.35% for a 30 year fixed which is basically what you wrote. 

 

Yeah, somebody made a boo-boo.  They transposed a "6" for a "5" on the 30 yr rate on April 19th.  Very unusual for bankrate.com -- they are usually spot-on with everything they do.  Must've been either an old guy or a newbie!

[Magiccarpetrides]

I-Bonds as mentioned early are really where the safe money is at...at least for the next 6 months (you only have to keep them for 1 year) If you buy them now since they adjust with inflation every 6 months you'll get an approx interest return of 8.5 % for 1 year...a helluva a good risk free deal.  If you pull your money out before 3 years the penalty is only 3 months of interest (so 35 months would pay you 32 months of interest plus your original investment).  Anyone not jumping on these now is extremely foolish.  There are some great videos on YouTube that break down why your best best is to go ahead and buy now before the May increase.

[gregintenn]

Well, today was a disaster on Wall Street. Should I jump out a window, or wait and see what tomorrow holds?

[Erik88]

5 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Well, today was a disaster on Wall Street. Should I jump out a window, or wait and see what tomorrow holds?

How high is the window?

[gregintenn]

42 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

How high is the window?

Ground floor of course. I’m a weenie.

[No_0ne]

3 hours ago, gregintenn said:

Well, today was a disaster on Wall Street. Should I jump out a window, or wait and see what tomorrow holds?

 

2 hours ago, gregintenn said:

Ground floor of course. I’m a weenie.

I suspect the freefall isn't done yet - I'm anticipating a real, live bear market coming on ...

[btq96r]

5 hours ago, No_0ne said:

 

I suspect the freefall isn't done yet - I'm anticipating a real, live bear market coming on ...

I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.

[Erik88]

5 hours ago, btq96r said:

I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.

I could believe this. Some say the trucking industry is an early indicator for possible recession. We have seen a dramatic shift at work since diesel prices shot up. The amount of available loads is declining every week. 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bank-of-america-is-sounding-the-alarm-on-collapsing-freight-demand

Edited April 27, 2022 by Erik88

[gregintenn]

2 hours ago, Erik88 said:

I could believe this. Some say the trucking industry is an early indicator for possible recession. We have seen a dramatic shift at work since diesel prices shot up. The amount of available loads is declining every week. 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bank-of-america-is-sounding-the-alarm-on-collapsing-freight-demand

That isn't good.

It does seem weird, however, since store shelves are pretty bare.

[Erik88]

59 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

That isn't good.

It does seem weird, however, since store shelves are pretty bare.

That's more of an issue with the food manufacturers than it is transportation if I had to guess. I'm sure transportation might have some impact but I think companies are having a hard time getting raw materials and not producing as much product as they would like. Goes back to the labor shortages. 

What we're seeing now with the trucking industry is concerning. We're having to solicit freight for the first time since 2019. 

[gregintenn]

23 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

That's more of an issue with the food manufacturers than it is transportation if I had to guess. I'm sure transportation might have some impact but I think companies are having a hard time getting raw materials and not producing as much product as they would like. Goes back to the labor shortages. 

What we're seeing now with the trucking industry is concerning. We're having to solicit freight for the first time since 2019. 

You have a somewhat unique insight into the trucking situation. This is something I never see reported in the media. I appreciate you sharing with us.

[btq96r]

4 hours ago, Erik88 said:

That's more of an issue with the food manufacturers than it is transportation if I had to guess. I'm sure transportation might have some impact but I think companies are having a hard time getting raw materials and not producing as much product as they would like. Goes back to the labor shortages. 

What we're seeing now with the trucking industry is concerning. We're having to solicit freight for the first time since 2019. 

 

3 hours ago, gregintenn said:

You have a somewhat unique insight into the trucking situation. This is something I never see reported in the media. I appreciate you sharing with us.

My father was a long haul truck driver for over 30 years.  He wasn't a Wall Street wizard, nor had the know how to take his view into any kind of stock strategy...but he knew when things were working well enough, and when things were a mess.

If there is a canary in the coal mine on the health of the US economy, it's the trucking industry.  A database to amalgamate enough data from the industry would yield an understanding into a substantial size of the economy and forecasting recessions would get a helluva lot easier.  You could even drill down into specific sectors with enough data points.

[gregintenn]

1 hour ago, btq96r said:

 

My father was a long haul truck driver for over 30 years.  He wasn't a Wall Street wizard, nor had the know how to take his view into any kind of stock strategy...but he knew when things were working well enough, and when things were a mess.

If there is a canary in the coal mine on the health of the US economy, it's the trucking industry.  A database to amalgamate enough data from the industry would yield an understanding into a substantial size of the economy and forecasting recessions would get a helluva lot easier.  You could even drill down into specific sectors with enough data points.

I agree completely. That’s why I value Erik’s information. I don’t know where else to get it.

[Magiccarpetrides]

Good I Bonds quick video of why you want to buy them before the end of this month (if you dont though still not the end of the world)

 

[OLDNEWBIE]

I'm a big name "52 week low" stock buyer/ watcher.

Watching Zillow, Disney carefully. 

Made out pretty good during Covid scare buying fast and mid range restaurant stocks.

Won't comment on specific politics but if you're not plugged into political situation and so called news don't get into stock picking. 

Crisis time is buy time but...

Don't gamble more than you're ready to lose.

 

 

[Jeb48]

Thought this was an interesting chart. Might want to wait a few more months of down before jumping back in if the chart can be believed.

[btq96r]

On 4/30/2022 at 8:54 PM, Jeb48 said:

Thought this was an interesting chart. Might want to wait a few more months of down before jumping back in if the chart can be believed.

I always advise folks to get in when they can, and not try to time things.  If nothing else, it's just simpler and really doesn't show much difference over long periods (like decades worth).

But that chart is really great for reminding us there isn't much that's new, just shades of repeating themes.  Think of how bad it looked in each of those years, and what would have happened for someone who panicked. 

[Jeb48]

20 hours ago, btq96r said:

I always advise folks to get in when they can, and not try to time things.  If nothing else, it's just simpler and really doesn't show much difference over long periods (like decades worth).

But that chart is really great for reminding us there isn't much that's new, just shades of repeating themes.  Think of how bad it looked in each of those years, and what would have happened for someone who panicked. 

I agree in general, when I was working I invest every payday automatically. Did it through the 2000 crash just changed what I was buying to get more diversified since I had way too much tech. Was already retired during the 2008 crash and my asset allocations and diversity let me sail through with no lost sleep. The waiting I was referring too is some people wait for dips. If the chart can be believed the dip may have a few months to go. Being retired I don't have new money to invest but do have some cash on the side from doing some asset rebalancing. It may stay on the side but if the dip is big enough I will need to rebalance assets again. 

[btq96r]

On 4/26/2022 at 11:49 PM, btq96r said:

I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.

Starting to have my gut get some confirmation about a recession, even if economists still need to put 2 and 2 together. 

It's one thing when big tech stocks take a body blow.  They have wide swings up and down that aren't abnormal, and they were insanely overvalued these last few years as safe places turned into tar pits for good returns.  Seeing them fall is a painful but natural result of the current monetary policy.  And aside from Amazon, they don't give a good picture of the economy that's centered around moving product.

Walmart, Target, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Tractor Supply Company...they all got pasted after posting their earnings for Q1.  Easy to Google half a hundred articles offering analysis.  But I simplify things and look at these companies (and others like them) to think about the spending and consumption habits of everyday people.  When these companies have issues, we're not circulating product from producer, to retailer, to consumer as we should be.  Like your vascular system, a healthy flow is needed for the body to function.  These companies should be able to post steady income over time in normal conditions if the business is being run properly.  But normal was so 2019.  Their quarterly postings show that the supply chain crunch is still around, the labor market continues to be out of whack, and inflation has become the walls closing in on both companies and consumers alike.  When consumers are squeezed and the price elasticity of supply gets funky, recessions happen while companies figure out how to adjust.  Economists and government tend to lag in recognizing this while pouring over data.

I still continue to think we're in the unrealized/unannounced phase of a recession.  Maybe sooner or later someone in a suit at a podium on TV will tell us what truckers, warehouse workers, and regional managers are seeing in real time now.

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by btq96r

[No_0ne]

22 hours ago, btq96r said:

I still continue to think we're in the unrealized/unannounced phase of a recession. 

Typically, recessions aren't "officially" noticed until after they've begun, often until after they've ended.  My bet is you're right, we're in the beginning stages of a full blown recession, one which will most likely persist at least until the fall ...

[Erik88]

Consider this your monthly supply chain update. The trucking company I work for this time last year was declining 10,000 loads per week. Now we are declining around 1,000 loads per week. That was 10k loads we wanted to haul, but simply couldn't.

We have seen a remarkable drop from even Q1 of this year. That said, I think we had our best Q1 in company history. 

[A.J. Holst]

8 hours ago, Erik88 said:

Consider this your monthly supply chain update. The trucking company I work for this time last year was declining 10,000 loads per week. Now we are declining around 1,000 loads per week. That was 10k loads we wanted to haul, but simply couldn't.

We have seen a remarkable drop from even Q1 of this year. That said, I think we had our best Q1 in company history. 

Any shop talk on diesel cost or availability?

[Erik88]

46 minutes ago, A.J. Holst said:

Any shop talk on diesel cost or availability?

Not a lot beyond it being a concern. Most of our loads are contracted so that our customers pay for fuel. Or at least most of it. 

It's all hurting though. The cost of new trucks, tires, repairs on existing trucks, etc.  All those things are substantially inflated right now. 

If you know any kids graduating high school that wanted to learn a trade, diesel mechanics are in high demand and make a lot from what I understand. More overtime than you could possibly want I assume. 

The next year or two will be interesting I bet.