Stock traders on TGO

[TripleGGG]

3 hours ago, btq96r said:

I get why some folks go with their investment pros, it can all be daunting at first, and you think you need a pro to make good things happen.  But just take a look at the returns from the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vtsax/cumulative-returns

This fund is basically a mirror of the whole US stock market...from large companies to small in proportion.  The overall track record of the US stock market is very healthy, and even with our economic woes, it's still a great bet over time. 

Now, couple that with an expense ratio of 0.04%, which means you'll only pay $4 per $10,000 invested annually, then compare and contrast that against the returns and fees you get from having someone manage your account.

This investment is a $3,000 minimum to start (or you can start with the ETF version for a little under $200 currently), and whatever you want to funnel into it as you go.  It's available in both traditional or retirement brokerage accounts through Vanguard, or any 401k plans that offer it. 

As for the disclosure part...this is my 3rd largest personal investment fund after two US Fund Large Growth funds (one a closed Vanguard fund I'm using to save for a down payment when I buy a home someday, the other in my personal Roth IRA).  I recommend it to anyone who wants to invest, but isn't very savvy about picking funds, should go into a 'set it and forget it' mode, and could really use the money paid to an advisor going into the fund and generating returns.  If you're not comfortable with the risk of rising and falling in concert with the stock market at large, or are closing in on retirement, you can dilute that risk with some bond funds at a hit to growth.

But yeah, this one fund is basically your entry to the entire market, while also being able to serve as the whole ride until retirement.

 

Can't tell you how many I have told this exact information to over the years. 

[QuackerSmacker]

14 hours ago, ReeferMac said:

Its easy to be an expert in a bull market!

You'd be amazed at how many people screw that up!  They buy, make a little and get itchy, so they sell, then watch it go up, buy again, rinse and repeat several times, and then really load up the truck at the top and get on the heavy equipment non-stop down elevator.  I've seen hundreds of people do that in my 40 years on Wall Street.  Those folks are great --- after all, the rest of us do need liquidity!

[10-Ring]

I play with them, it's something that I enjoy doing.  I spend a lot of time doing research and several hours each day watching the market and reading reports.  I've had my ups and downs.  Up 30% over the past 3 months.  Recently made good profits on IDEX, NIO, and JAGX, but lost a chunk of money on GNUS several months ago.  I don't play with more than I can afford to loose and treat this more like a poker game than a serious investment.  Swing trading penny stocks can be lucrative but nerve wracking.  I sold IDEX, NIO, and JAGX close to their peak last week before both plummeted and then put 90% of my money in TSLA, where it just seems to grow substantially without having to watch what it does every minute.  I'll probably stay in TSLA until the next hot stock comes around. 

[gregintenn]

13 hours ago, QuackerSmacker said:

You'd be amazed at how many people screw that up!  They buy, make a little and get itchy, so they sell, then watch it go up, buy again, rinse and repeat several times, and then really load up the truck at the top and get on the heavy equipment non-stop down elevator.  I've seen hundreds of people do that in my 40 years on Wall Street.  Those folks are great --- after all, the rest of us do need liquidity!

It's like buying gold. Most folks don't want to buy until they see it go up and up and up. Not the best place to buy in.

[QuackerSmacker]

Here are a couple of ETFs that specialize in alternative energy stocks:  FAN and TAN.   Guess what they own?   Might want to take a look.....

[btq96r]

19 hours ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

You can open up a TDAmeritrade or Robinhood account with as little as $500....buy the ARK ETF's I mentioned for zero commission and run circles around Vanguard and almost all other ETF's.  ARK has the brightest minds, quickest adjusting, and most reliable large gains.  Also there "fees" are insignificant compared to some other ETF's and they do enough volume that you can drop them with one quick click.  (Some ETF's have such low volume that getting out of them can take a lot more time then you would expect)

The ARK funds are hot now, but they're still pretty new overall, and the explosion seems to be them having made a lot of good picks during COVID.  I'm not saying they aren't worth a share of a portfolio, but with only six years of record, and some specific sector focuses (or a Tesla focus, which accounts for a lot of the boom), I'd be wary if I were looking for true balance.  We'll see if they run circles around Vanguard over time...like 25-30 years time.

[QuackerSmacker]

I agree with both of you about ARK.  There is something about "ETFs focused on disruptive innovation" that seems particularly interesting.

[Erik88]

Someone give me the ARK explanation for dummies please. 

 

 

 

 

[Magiccarpetrides]

1 hour ago, btq96r said:

The ARK funds are hot now, but they're still pretty new overall, and the explosion seems to be them having made a lot of good picks during COVID.  I'm not saying they aren't worth a share of a portfolio, but with only six years of record, and some specific sector focuses (or a Tesla focus, which accounts for a lot of the boom), I'd be wary if I were looking for true balance.  We'll see if they run circles around Vanguard over time...like 25-30 years time.

Unlike the old suits from Vanguard and others Cathie Wood and her team are constantly looking for the next area of disruption and the next innovation.  Also everyday they print what they are buying and their research.  They are miles ahead of their peers.  Tesla is only 10% of the portfolio's its in and they are constantly reducing exposure or increasing to keep it at that number....a good example of huge gains for them is having the foresight to take a large position in Crisper (CRSP) for the ARKG fund (NO TESLA EXPOSURE).  Today alone that ETF is up 5%....5% in an ETF in one day!!!  for the year?  170%....Since its inception in 2016...how about 378%  Now look at Vanguard S&P 500 ETF....1yr-17%  5yr 76% (not bad but...) and tell me how many decades it will take to match that performance.  Its your money but I know what i'm doing with mine.  For the guy in the back asking about ARK....go Youtube any Cathie Wood interview...she does plenty and explains their rational so that simpletons like me can understand.

 

 

 

 

[btq96r]

2 hours ago, QuackerSmacker said:

I agree with both of you about ARK.  There is something about "ETFs focused on disruptive innovation" that seems particularly interesting.

I agree, it's an interesting concept.  And there certainly appears to be plenty of opportunities with so much just over the horizon in terms of next generation tech...but my mind keeps coming back to the dot-com era.  Risk and reward are seldom far apart in these kind of moments.

 

32 minutes ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

Unlike the old suits from Vanguard and others Cathie Wood and her team are constantly looking for the next area of disruption and the next innovation.  Also everyday they print what they are buying and their research.  They are miles ahead of their peers.  Tesla is only 10% of the portfolio's its in and they are constantly reducing exposure or increasing to keep it at that number....a good example of huge gains for them is having the foresight to take a large position in Crisper (CRSP) for the ARKG fund (NO TESLA EXPOSURE).  Today alone that ETF is up 5%....5% in an ETF in one day!!!  for the year?  170%....Since its inception in 2016...how about 378%  Now look at Vanguard S&P 500 ETF....1yr-17%  5yr 76% (not bad but...) and tell me how many decades it will take to match that performance.

Looking for the next era of disruption and innovation is all well and good, but what guarantees they hit pay dirt like they currently are on a rolling basis?  Do they have a sustainable mode and process for finding the good ones, or some really stellar individuals who represent a point of risk (their leaving or ill health) with institutional knowledge?

I'm also curious about what their cut and run policy is when companies start to falter.  Are they in it for the long run with some, or do they have a floating limit order in place.  Like you said, they trigger sales to keep the portfolios at a certain cap for total %, but I'm not sure what other controls are in place.

You're not wrong about the percentages for YTD, 5y, ect...but as mentioned, I'd like to know the risk mitigation to make sure the super ascent in recent years isn't mirrored on a downward trajectory.  I'm very wary of success stories too far out of the norm...they have a bubble feel to them.  But I freely admit I could be wrong in this case.

[TripleGGG]

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify 

I would never recommend having all your eggs in one basket. 

I have investments ranging from extremely aggressive to fairly conservative. I also love land. Last time I checked they quit making more of it. Lol

[gregintenn]

24 minutes ago, btq96r said:

I agree, it's an interesting concept.  And there certainly appears to be plenty of opportunities with so much just over the horizon in terms of next generation tech...but my mind keeps coming back to the dot-com era.  Risk and reward are seldom far apart in these kind of moments.

 

Looking for the next era of disruption and innovation is all well and good, but what guarantees they hit pay dirt like they currently are on a rolling basis?  Do they have a sustainable mode and process for finding the good ones, or some really stellar individuals who represent a point of risk (their leaving or ill health) with institutional knowledge?

I'm also curious about what their cut and run policy is when companies start to falter.  Are they in it for the long run with some, or do they have a floating limit order in place.  Like you said, they trigger sales to keep the portfolios at a certain cap for total %, but I'm not sure what other controls are in place.

You're not wrong about the percentages for YTD, 5y, ect...but as mentioned, I'd like to know the risk mitigation to make sure the super ascent in recent years isn't mirrored on a downward trajectory.  I'm very wary of success stories too far out of the norm...they have a bubble feel to them.  But I freely admit I could be wrong in this case.

I had one fund that more than doubled in a year back during the .com bubble. It didn't as well the following year. LOL

[Magiccarpetrides]

Btq96r they look at all investments and targets with a 5yr timeline but they will cut and run when something doesn’t work. Daily they post everything they buy and sell.  A good example is their heavy conviction and position in Illuminae a large chunk in the arkg etf...when they took it to task and it wasn’t found to any longer be the disrupter and peer leader they liquidated that holding very quickly.  While it hurt the arkg fund some that fund quickly recovered and is setting another 52wk high this week. 

[QuackerSmacker]

Decades ago Peter Lynch did an all-day interview with a client company of mine in Chicago, for possible inclusion in Fidelity's Magellan Fund.  I will never forget my big takeaway from that meeting. 

Lynch said he was much more excited about diversification as THE way to maximize the probability of having a few super-winners, than his concerns about mitigating risk.  

My clients were amazed at the quality level of Lynch and the team he brought with him, the questions they asked, and their analytical reasoning.  The results speak for themselves of course.

[Garufa]

3 hours ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

Unlike the old suits from Vanguard and others Cathie Wood and her team are constantly looking for the next area of disruption and the next innovation.  Also everyday they print what they are buying and their research.  They are miles ahead of their peers.  Tesla is only 10% of the portfolio's its in and they are constantly reducing exposure or increasing to keep it at that number....a good example of huge gains for them is having the foresight to take a large position in Crisper (CRSP) for the ARKG fund (NO TESLA EXPOSURE).  Today alone that ETF is up 5%....5% in an ETF in one day!!!  for the year?  170%....Since its inception in 2016...how about 378%  Now look at Vanguard S&P 500 ETF....1yr-17%  5yr 76% (not bad but...) and tell me how many decades it will take to match that performance.  Its your money but I know what i'm doing with mine.  For the guy in the back asking about ARK....go Youtube any Cathie Wood interview...she does plenty and explains their rational so that simpletons like me can understand.

 

 

 

 

Cathie Wood may be shown the door soon according to what I saw today.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Garufa

[Magiccarpetrides]

1 hour ago, Garufa said:

Cathie Wood may be shown the door soon according to what I saw today.

If Resolute does take over I'll just follow Cathie and Crew to the next ETF...shes got the clout now where she will be showered with money.  Resolute are fools if they think investors won't hit the doors if she loses control.  So all that being said...for now stick with ARK and if Cathie is shown the door just pull your money and wait til she opens up her own shop.  

Here's a writer's opinon:

ARKK: Don't Sweat The ARK Invest Battle With Resolute Investment Managers (NYSEARCA:ARKK) | Seeking Alpha

Edited December 8, 2020 by Magiccarpetrides
link

[No_0ne]

5 hours ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

Unlike the old suits from Vanguard and others Cathie Wood and her team are constantly looking for the next area of disruption and the next innovation.  Also everyday they print what they are buying and their research.  They are miles ahead of their peers.  Tesla is only 10% of the portfolio's its in and they are constantly reducing exposure or increasing to keep it at that number....a good example of huge gains for them is having the foresight to take a large position in Crisper (CRSP) for the ARKG fund (NO TESLA EXPOSURE).  Today alone that ETF is up 5%....5% in an ETF in one day!!!  for the year?  170%....Since its inception in 2016...how about 378%  Now look at Vanguard S&P 500 ETF....1yr-17%  5yr 76% (not bad but...) and tell me how many decades it will take to match that performance.  Its your money but I know what i'm doing with mine.  For the guy in the back asking about ARK....go Youtube any Cathie Wood interview...she does plenty and explains their rational so that simpletons like me can understand.

 

 

 

 

You may be right about the ARK funds being the greatest thing since sliced bread, but in comparing them to Vanguard's S&P ETF you're comparing apples to oranges.  By their nature, an index fund seeks to track, as accurately as possible the index they're based on, not to beat it ...

[Magiccarpetrides]

1 hour ago, No_0ne said:

You may be right about the ARK funds being the greatest thing since sliced bread, but in comparing them to Vanguard's S&P ETF you're comparing apples to oranges.  By their nature, an index fund seeks to track, as accurately as possible the index they're based on, not to beat it ...

That’s one of the best performing vanguard funds...I was trying to be as fair as possible their other selections that I pulled up fared far worse.

[Erik88]

I realize I shouldn't take financial advice from the internet but I have a question for you guys. If I were to fire my edward jones person and move that money over to Fidelity where my 401k is, would it make sense to just invest in the same Index Funds I currently have selected or pick another one? Most of our money with Fidelity is in FXAIX and FLGEX, both doing very well this year.

 

 

 

[Capbyrd]

I have a 401k through work.  I have no other forms of savings or retirement account.   But I found Robinhood and Stash a while back and decided to give them a go.  I put 5 bucks into each every week.  My stash account automatically invests that into a few different ETFs.   Robinhood, the money sits until I decide what stock to buy.  I usually only buy a few shares and only companies that I like or use.   I'm not trying to get rich or anything and I'm really not even "investing" in a traditional sense.  I'm just setting some money aside in a hidden place until I die.  

[No_0ne]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

I realize I shouldn't take financial advice from the internet but I have a question for you guys. If I were to fire my edward jones person and move that money over to Fidelity where my 401k is, would it make sense to just invest in the same Index Funds I currently have selected or pick another one? Most of our money with Fidelity is in FXAIX and FLGEX, both doing very well this year.

 

 

 

Depends on how much you want to diversify.  Right now you are 100% in domestic stocks (at least with those 2 funds), the S&P 500 and growth categories are covered.  If you want more diversity, look into whatever bond (both domestic and foreign) and international equity funds are offered by Fidelity (I use Vanguard so I'm not familiar with Fidelity's funds).  If you're not afraid of a little more risk you could also take a look at some sector funds, things like healthcare, consumer staples, information and technology, etc.  If this is taxable money it doesn't hurt to investigate some of the tax free bond funds available - yearly returns are typically under those of regular bond funds but, depending on your tax bracket you might wind up ahead overall.

[Magiccarpetrides]

3 hours ago, Erik88 said:

I realize I shouldn't take financial advice from the internet but I have a question for you guys. If I were to fire my edward jones person and move that money over to Fidelity where my 401k is, would it make sense to just invest in the same Index Funds I currently have selected or pick another one? Most of our money with Fidelity is in FXAIX and FLGEX, both doing very well this year.

 

 

 

Depending on your age I think you should definitely take on some more "risk".  If you were to buy an Index fund (yawn) I would just do the S&P.  If Fidelity offers any tech or emerging technologies you definitely should go in that direction.  People that have only stuck with the index have really missed a lot of gains the past couple years....now I don't know your age...if your near retirement I would keep it simple and the risk low.

[Erik88]

1 minute ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

If you were to buy an Index fund (yawn) I would just do the S&P

What's wrong with index funds? FLGEX is up 18% this year. Not exactly a bad return....

[analog_kidd]

When I was young, and first married and absolutely stupid about money, I asked my dad for advice on what I should be doing. Sadly, the only advise he had was to go get some life insurance. I did just that, but bought he wrong kind (Whole life, not Term) , and did nothing with investing. I had a 401k at work, but didn't really care to understand it. All I cared about was they were taking money out of my paycheck that I couldn't spend now.

Around my early forties, I woke up and got interested in what I was doing financially. We took a Dave Ramsey class and that set us on a much better path. I read anything I could get my hands on, invested in some real estate and made much better choices with my 401k / IRA. I feel like we are in a much better place now, but cringe at how much better we could be if I had just been smarter early on.

If I could go back in time and tell my younger self one thing, it would be to invest early, and be disciplined about doing it.

If you are reading this and are in a similar boat as the young me, please, please, please take the time to evaluate your financial situation, get smarter and take action. The government will not be there to bail you out, and even if Social Security is still around, it will not be enough to live comfortably on. 

At the bare minimum, you should be putting enough into your 401k to meet the full employer match. You really should be putting in 10% of your own money, or 15% even better. I know it seems like you can't swing it, but you can. The older version of you will thank the today version, trust me.

If you have 401k's from old employers, roll them all into one IRA. You'll get way better options to invest in from an IRA than you will in an employer 401k. Plus it's easy to do. Most Financial Advisors will do most of the work for you and all you have to do is sign a few papers.

Once you have that IRA, anything over what it takes to get the 401k match from your employer, invest in the IRA. Again, you'll have better options and probably get better returns.

If you have the option to do a ROTH 401k, take it. You'll pay the tax on the money you invest, but when you cash it in during retirement, no matter how much it has grown, it will be tax free. Same with an IRA, if you invest in one, make sure to do it ROTH style.

THAT was the advise I wanted MY dad to give.

 

[QuackerSmacker]

Just bot some  SPXU.  That's an ETF that goes  3X short on the daily downward movement of the S&P500.  Not for the feint of heart, and It  has some goofy nuances.  Obviously I'm looking for a very near term drop.  That said, now you bulls can go long even more and with confidence!  

ETA:  Dow up 120

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by QuackerSmacker