Stock traders on TGO

[ReeferMac]

Just now, DaveTN said:

As you probably know....wives can be like that.

New mower is sitting under a Tarp because "we can't spend THAT money on a pole barn..."

 

Whateverdoyoumean???

[analog_kidd]

So, I'm really interested in cannabis stock. Whatever your feelings on the product, it's gonna make money and it's gonna be here to stay. You can either be in on it or not.

That said, I hold a government clearance, and they do background checks. I know how they feel about using weed, but not sure how they would feel about investing in it. So, I would like a stock that would be legit on the open US market. Maybe a mutual fund that has cannabis as a major percentage of it's holdings, but has other stuff too.

Any recommendations?

[Alleycat72]

3 minutes ago, analog_kidd said:

So, I'm really interested in cannabis stock. Whatever your feelings on the product, it's gonna make money and it's gonna be here to stay. You can either be in on it or not.

That said, I hold a government clearance, and they do background checks. I know how they feel about using weed, but not sure how they would feel about investing in it. So, I would like a stock that would be legit on the open US market. Maybe a mutual fund that has cannabis as a major percentage of it's holdings, but has other stuff too.

Any recommendations?

Thought about it also. I wouldn't ever use it, but if it was legal I wouldn't be opposed to growing it. Only problem is that I'm afraid contact while working it would cause a hot test at work. Stocks are probably my only option.

[Magiccarpetrides]

5 hours ago, DaveTN said:

So you are saying an increase of 10% in 11 months after fees for 2020 is not a good return? I didn’t instruct them to invest conservatively, my risk tolerance is medium to high. My return was in the low 20's for the last three years. 

If your passively investing thats alright but if you look at where the market is as a whole unless they were ultra conservative you have should have seen better.  For example those ARK Invest ETF's i've mentioned are up over 30% in 3 months....3 out of 4 are up over 120% on the year.  You don't have to do anything but buy the ETF and sit on it.  No paying brokers...no paying anything...just watch your money rise.  If I was really lazy or just gun shy I would buy ARKK, ARKW, ARKF, ARKG, and ARKQ.....say put 20% into each of whatever amount your investing....set a trailing stop loss of 20% (this is a long term set it and forget it)....and let it ride.  A $10,000 investment on Jan 1, 2020 would today be worth approx $23,000...the only work you would have needed to do is reinvest when your stop loss hit in March at the market drop (by the beginning of May you were back to even).

[DaveTN]

2 hours ago, analog_kidd said:

So, I'm really interested in cannabis stock. Whatever your feelings on the product, it's gonna make money and it's gonna be here to stay. You can either be in on it or not.

That said, I hold a government clearance, and they do background checks. I know how they feel about using weed, but not sure how they would feel about investing in it. So, I would like a stock that would be legit on the open US market. Maybe a mutual fund that has cannabis as a major percentage of it's holdings, but has other stuff too.

Any recommendations?

https://www.military.com/money/personal-finance/owning-marijuana-company-stocks-could-endanger-your-security-clearance.html

Well that article says it could impact your security clearance. That’s not an issue for me, my concern would be that weed could be outlawed tomorrow by the Feds. However, I think you would be good for at least the next four years. That is, unless owning stocks puts you in the category of being perceived as being entitled; then the government taking office in January will want it.

[analog_kidd]

1 hour ago, DaveTN said:

https://www.military.com/money/personal-finance/owning-marijuana-company-stocks-could-endanger-your-security-clearance.html

Well that article says it could impact your security clearance. That’s not an issue for me, my concern would be that weed could be outlawed tomorrow by the Feds. However, I think you would be good for at least the next four years. That is, unless owning stocks puts you in the category of being perceived as being entitled; then the government taking office in January will want it.

Yeah, that is exactly what I'm talking about. Something that has it as part of the fund as a collection of different stocks, I could probably play dumb on. 

I might be able to do the investing from my Wife's IRA. Not sure if they would even care, as long as it wasn't in my name. Not sure I want to chance it either.

[Magiccarpetrides]

For you Cannabis fans one company you should take a hard look at is Planet13 PLNHF on the OTC market.  I’ve made almost 60% on it since March. If your ever in Vegas you owe yourself the time to walk in their store it’s indescribable even if your a non smoker like me it will stun you with how cool it is.  I can definitely see it being franchised as more states legalize marijuana.   For my fellow gun owners it’s also entertaining to check out the varying types of weapons their armed security (numerous) carries.  The doorman has an AR15 and a sidearm.  Gotta have firepower when the government won’t let you deposit your money in a bank. 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, DaveTN said:

So you are saying an increase of 10% in 11 months after fees for 2020 is not a good return? I didn’t instruct them to invest conservatively, my risk tolerance is medium to high. My return was in the low 20's for the last three years. 

That is correct.  The market was up 15% in the same time period.  So you paid the broker/advisor to earn you 1/3 less over the last 11 months.   Not being sarcastic, but I'd imagine when they told you 10% was good they didn't mention the most-common benchmark in the world is up 50% more.

What's even more significant is the effect of compounding.      Let's say the market over time averages 10% and you average 6.5% (about 1/3 less).    Per some very quick math, in 20 years, at 10% the initial principal will be up 662%.   At 6.5%, the principal will be up 342%.     That's nearly 50% less (not 1/3 less) value due to the poorer returns compounded.

With multiple brokerages having DIY options to invest with just a few clicks and <0.1% fees to do so, there's no reason for these brokers for typical investors, EXCEPT when the typical investor needs the discipline of the broker to talk them out of selling during down-periods.   If that discipline is needed (to buy and hold), then I suppose there's a very legitimate reason for the broker.   But it's costly.

[ReeferMac]

Its easy to be an expert in a bull market!

[jgradyc]

23 hours ago, DaveTN said:

I do have a question for investments. I have a lot of cash setting in the bank doing nothing. I also had some CD’s that were 3.5%, but now CD rates are less than 1%. I let them mature and didn’t take the new rate.

I told the wife I should take that money and buy guns that would not be the target of restrictions or bans. But of course she isn’t going for that. Also used gun prices are high right now.

I thought about buying collector cars, but then I have taxes, insurance etc.

I’d like to do something with that money, but be able to have access to it in a reasonable amount of time if needed??

I would recommend against collectables. The obvious problems are storage, insurance, and the ability to make the right buying decisions at the right price, but the bigger problem is illiquidity. With an ETF, you list click "sell" at market in your Schwab, TDAmeritrade, etc account and within an minute you get an alert that's it's done. Wait until the settlement date and you can withdraw the funds. So, sell on Monday and you can have cash available to trade stocks on Monday or withdraw and have the cash in hand realistically by Thursday/Friday. With a collectable car or vintage gun, the buyer's market is MUCH smaller. It might take months. Plus, there is a major problem for what your heirs would have to do if something happens to you.

A friend's late husband collected vintage musical equipment... pedals, speakers, keyboards, etc. He died with a house full of this stuff and his widow had no idea of how to get rid of it. It has been over a year and she still has one entire side of the garage and one bedroom filled with stuff that's worth tens of thousands of dollars, but people want to know it actually works before buying it. It has been a MAJOR hassle that you wouldn't want to leave to your spouse or children. In fact, what survivors typically do is sell it at auction for pennies on the dollar. 

I'd recommend a portfolio of ETFs. Vanguard is good, but there are others I would recommend as well. That's what some of the professional asset managers use. I know because I held the CFP designation for 34 years before retiring. 

[jgradyc]

30 minutes ago, ReeferMac said:

Its easy to be an expert in a bull market!

This is overlooked by all the new Robinhood investors who think the market will always go up. Right now, there are stocks that are skyrocketing that are JUNK! Case in point, by mid-November, cannabis stocks had taken off after the election. I looked around for laggards and dogs no one wanted because a rising tide lifts all boats. Sure enough, I found two dogs that were lagging way behind. I bought them both. One has doubled! The other is up 20%. 

This is an unusual bull market because the tail is wagging the dog. The volatility is being generated, in my opinion, by small traders whose activity creates computer-programmed alerts.  A stock crosses a point in volume or price and it triggers a big signal. Traders move in. Their buying triggers upward prices that trigger more buying signals for the big traders. Eventually, it dies out and the stock either drops or sits. AAPL is a good example. It went up steadily until August and then the traders went elsewhere. If you bought AAPL in August, you're probably looking at a loss in December. Same with Amazon and they are both good long-term stocks. 

 

[DaveTN]

35 minutes ago, jgradyc said:

I would recommend against collectables. The obvious problems are storage, insurance, and the ability to make the right buying decisions at the right price, but the bigger problem is illiquidity. With an ETF, you list click "sell" at market in your Schwab, TDAmeritrade, etc account and within an minute you get an alert that's it's done. Wait until the settlement date and you can withdraw the funds. So, sell on Monday and you can have cash available to trade stocks on Monday or withdraw and have the cash in hand realistically by Thursday/Friday. With a collectable car or vintage gun, the buyer's market is MUCH smaller. It might take months. Plus, there is a major problem for what your heirs would have to do if something happens to you.

A friend's late husband collected vintage musical equipment... pedals, speakers, keyboards, etc. He died with a house full of this stuff and his widow had no idea of how to get rid of it. It has been over a year and she still has one entire side of the garage and one bedroom filled with stuff that's worth tens of thousands of dollars, but people want to know it actually works before buying it. It has been a MAJOR hassle that you wouldn't want to leave to your spouse or children. In fact, what survivors typically do is sell it at auction for pennies on the dollar. 

I'd recommend a portfolio of ETFs. Vanguard is good, but there are others I would recommend as well. That's what some of the professional asset managers use. I know because I held the CFP designation for 34 years before retiring. 

Thanks, I may have to look into that. I’m not concerned with the mechanics of investing, I doubt that would take long to learn. I’m more concerned about knowledge of the markets I would invest in. Seems that would take a lot of research time. And even then; aren’t you guessing based on past performance?

Do you not think the new “powers to be” are going to have a detrimental effect on the stock market across the board?

[ReeferMac]

21 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

Do you not think the new “powers to be” are going to have a detrimental effect on the stock market across the board?

Shudder at the thought...

I think the risk is the change from a hands off less regulation business friendly leadership to a more top-down and authoritarian perspective.

Deficit spending is popular with both, however I think that the currency will drop, though usually bullish, I see rotation away from King Dollar as a likely result, and that will pull money out of Wall St.

 

.. that being said, with all thats happening right now, I'm keeping most of my powder dry and ready to go. I've been in illiquid markets with liquid assets. Market orders can be a bitch.

[jgradyc]

10 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

Thanks, I may have to look into that. I’m not concerned with the mechanics of investing, I doubt that would take long to learn. I’m more concerned about knowledge of the markets I would invest in. Seems that would take a lot of research time. And even then; aren’t you guessing based on past performance?

Do you not think the new “powers to be” are going to have a detrimental effect on the stock market across the board?

Yes and yes. And no. Yes it's all educated guesswork. Yes, it will be detrimental to the market, but it won't be across the board or necessarily in the near future. Stimulus bills will have a positive effect. The big money will move from one sector to another. The "green" energy sector is going crazy now. 

There are ETFs that are designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 so a person could invest in those ETFs. There are ETFs that attempt to track sectors of the market and sub-sectors. 

A balanced portfolio of ETFs, in theory, should provide about the same average long-term return as the S&P 500 without as much downside risk. This is why ETF portfolios are used by many Registered Investment Advisors.

Personally, I like (and own) MFMS and TMFC as part of an ETF portfolio. These ETFs are based on recommendations by the Motley Fool advisory service. 

[Alleycat72]

1 hour ago, ReeferMac said:

Its easy to be an expert in a bull market!

You can always short a stock when the market pulls back. 

[Alleycat72]

Anyone mess with options trading? The only thing my buddy will tell me is "Don't! ". LOL

[ReeferMac]

48 minutes ago, alleycat72 said:

You can always short a stock when the market pulls back. 

LOL!

Yes, I'm aware of the mechanics of the market. I was referencing a common observation at market tops: casual investors bragging about outsized returns in shorter timeframes, aka robinhood invextors and pot stocks up 10,000%. I believe the classic story is a stock broker receiving unsolicited stock tips from taxicab drivers and the shoe-shine boy.

 

Re: options, I find they are a much safer/better way to short something (market or security), however you absolutely have to understand what you are buying/selling. You can structure a trade to minimize risk (purchase naked calls/puts), or be on the hook for 10's of thousands (selling calls/puts). I enjoy trading them, as you can have long, swing, or short time frames, and the leverage is addictive. They are complex derivatives however, and not suited for all types of trading.

[jgradyc]

24 minutes ago, ReeferMac said:

LOL!

Yes, I'm aware of the mechanics of the market. I was referencing a common observation at market tops: casual investors bragging about outsized returns in shorter timeframes, aka robinhood invextors and pot stocks up 10,000%. I believe the classic story is a stock broker receiving unsolicited stock tips from taxicab drivers and the shoe-shine boy.

 

Re: options, I find they are a much safer/better way to short something (market or security), however you absolutely have to understand what you are buying/selling. You can structure a trade to minimize risk (purchase naked calls/puts), or be on the hook for 10's of thousands (selling calls/puts). I enjoy trading them, as you can have long, swing, or short time frames, and the leverage is addictive. They are complex derivatives however, and not suited for all types of trading.

I agree, although I rarely trade options. I'm on the Robinhood Facebook group. The posts are often hilarious. There are people who have NO clue what they are doing. I'm also on the Stock Trading group, which is better informed. 

I'm intrigued by the near term reactions to events. The whole "COVID cases increasing" on one side and "vaccines coming soon" on the other creates a volatile stock market with lots of opportunities. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 15% while I'm up 40%, but it has been a roller coaster ride. Fortunately, I took it upon myself during the crisis to learn more about swing trading. The data and tools we have access to (and free!) are amazing. I remember paying for a Morningstar subscription and wading through massive reams of paper to find information. Now it's just type the symbol and pick a dozen websites to research it. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by jgradyc
typo

[TripleGGG]

1 hour ago, alleycat72 said:

Anyone mess with options trading? The only thing my buddy will tell me is "Don't! ". LOL

Yes, and if you do not have a very thorough understanding of this type trading then DON'T! LOL. 

[Alleycat72]

1 hour ago, TripleGGG said:

Yes, and if you do not have a very thorough understanding of this type trading then DON'T! LOL. 

But I want to lose all my money as fast as possible.  LOL

[TripleGGG]

11 minutes ago, alleycat72 said:

But I want to lose all my money as fast as possible.  LOL

LOL. I've seen hat happen.

[btq96r]

I get why some folks go with their investment pros, it can all be daunting at first, and you think you need a pro to make good things happen.  But just take a look at the returns from the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vtsax/cumulative-returns

This fund is basically a mirror of the whole US stock market...from large companies to small in proportion.  The overall track record of the US stock market is very healthy, and even with our economic woes, it's still a great bet over time. 

Now, couple that with an expense ratio of 0.04%, which means you'll only pay $4 per $10,000 invested annually, then compare and contrast that against the returns and fees you get from having someone manage your account.

This investment is a $3,000 minimum to start (or you can start with the ETF version for a little under $200 currently), and whatever you want to funnel into it as you go.  It's available in both traditional or retirement brokerage accounts through Vanguard, or any 401k plans that offer it. 

As for the disclosure part...this is my 3rd largest personal investment fund after two US Fund Large Growth funds (one a closed Vanguard fund I'm using to save for a down payment when I buy a home someday, the other in my personal Roth IRA).  I recommend it to anyone who wants to invest, but isn't very savvy about picking funds, should go into a 'set it and forget it' mode, and could really use the money paid to an advisor going into the fund and generating returns.  If you're not comfortable with the risk of rising and falling in concert with the stock market at large, or are closing in on retirement, you can dilute that risk with some bond funds at a hit to growth.

But yeah, this one fund is basically your entry to the entire market, while also being able to serve as the whole ride until retirement.

 

[Magiccarpetrides]

You can open up a TDAmeritrade or Robinhood account with as little as $500....buy the ARK ETF's I mentioned for zero commission and run circles around Vanguard and almost all other ETF's.  ARK has the brightest minds, quickest adjusting, and most reliable large gains.  Also there "fees" are insignificant compared to some other ETF's and they do enough volume that you can drop them with one quick click.  (Some ETF's have such low volume that getting out of them can take a lot more time then you would expect)

[jgradyc]

52 minutes ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

You can open up a TDAmeritrade or Robinhood account with as little as $500....buy the ARK ETF's I mentioned for zero commission and run circles around Vanguard and almost all other ETF's.  ARK has the brightest minds, quickest adjusting, and most reliable large gains.  Also there "fees" are insignificant compared to some other ETF's and they do enough volume that you can drop them with one quick click.  (Some ETF's have such low volume that getting out of them can take a lot more time then you would expect)

Thanks for posting the ARK ETF info. I checked them out. Impressive. I'll consider adding them to my long term portfolio.

[TripleGGG]

ARK funds really are great performers.