Magazines - The next shortage?

[TGO David]

World and US events over the past few months have manipulated the firearms industry like nothing I have seen before.  If you were with us inside the gun community during the Obama years, you undoubtedly remember 2012-2013 and the crazy run on ammo, mags, and any rifle that wasn't a bolt-action brown wood hunter.  2020 has, no pun intended, blown all of that away.

If you doubt the accuracy of that statement, ask yourself when the last time was that you saw a new Glock 19 going for $700+ and buyers barely hesitating to pay those prices.  You are doing lucky if you find one in the $600 range at the gun shop, and they rarely last long at that price if you're lucky to see one.  And remember just eight months ago big online retailers like Brownells were running daily deals offering percentage-based discount codes in order to entice buyers to open their wallets?  Those days are long gone.

The egregious environmental protection restrictions placed on ammunition manufacturers under Obama shoved a lot of ammo production overseas, only to then have the door slammed on importation by politically motivated tariffs.  Domestic production slowed even further as inventory ramped up for the GWOT and to catch up on demand from the Obama era and then began to stagnate in warehouses due to public dissinterest.  If there was ever an industry that could use some seriously talented demand planners, it's the ammunition industry for sure.

Where you used to be able to buy all of the 5.56 ammo you wanted, by the case-load, you now see cases of ammo being parted out and sold in baggies at premium prices by retailers acting like street hustlers slinging meth.

 

So, what's next?   My prediction is that standard capacity magazines will soon become very scarce -- once again -- thanks to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals finally making the commonsense ruling that California's ban on magazines with capacities over 10-rounds is unconstitutional.  Any Californian who didn't act during the previous window of opportunity surely will be doing so now.  Supply will dry up quickly and it will take several months for it to catch up.  The November election certainly won't help ease pressure on the sale of mags, ammo or guns either.

 

If you're reading this and thinking "Geez, I need to hurry up and buy some mags", I wouldn't dilly dally around.  Act while they are in stock with your preferred retailer.  The price couldn't possibly go down, and I suspect that availability will become scarce at least until January 2021.

 

[Grayfox54]

If you don't have all the mags you need by now, you're probably already too late.  

[Chucktshoes]

Good reminder to pick up more Hellcat mags. I was still shy of my minimum compliment for my most recent pistol purchase. 
 

Gunmagwarehouse.com still has a good supply of various mags currently if you’re still in need. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Chucktshoes

[TGO David]

1 hour ago, Grayfox54 said:

If you don't have all the mags you need by now, you're probably already too late.  

Well, you've probably still got time but you definitely aren't going to be getting any sweet deals on anything other than Magpul PMAGs these days.  I expect that even those will start to go back up in price within 30 days.

[Defender]

brownells and many others already out of stock.

[Quavodus]

Yep, I'm afraid things like mags will be very hard to get and get way expensive too.

[btq96r]

Gun cycles tend to have very high peaks, and very low valleys, but there is a cycle if you can pick it out afford to be patient with your purchases.  This too shall pass, but I get the nerves given all things happening at once.  Really anything other than equipping yourself with the core three (pistol, rifle, shotgun) and enough SD ammo are luxuries you can wait for a good price point to present itself on.  While I would love to have a nice PDW, it's not something I feel that I need before I keep funding my way to a down payment on a home, so I don't have one.

For your standard AR shooter, get ten mags (aluminum or polymer) and you'll be set for 10 years if you don't abuse them.  It's ammo I'm way more worried about long term.  David pointed out some very good macroeconomic conditions in play, and those are things to keep a watch on.  Since it's very much an expendable item, price can move like, well, precious metals on a financial market (irony), so you really need to understand the dollar cost average of how much you shoot, and learn when to buy even though your inventory tells you otherwise to keep it from rising if you're on a budget.

That's not to say I endorse panic buying, I certainly don't.  But I tend to look at my ammo like an emergency fund.  While you try to shoot from an expendable pile you rotate around, you need to keep a certain level, and anything more isn't a bad thing if you worry about the future.  On the flip side, times like these should reinforce how ammo is for a serious purpose first and foremost, so while piling up brass at the range is fun, it could come with a cost.

[TGO David]

11 hours ago, btq96r said:

Gun cycles tend to have very high peaks, and very low valleys, but there is a cycle if you can pick it out afford to be patient with your purchases.  This too shall pass, but I get the nerves given all things happening at once. 

You are not wrong at all, but I hope the cycle truly does continue and 2020 isn't the year that the whole thing finally jumps off the rails and ends the loop.

So much seems so volatile right now that I'll honestly be surprised if any part of "the norm" is still part of the norm after this year gets done with it.

[Trekbike]

57 minutes ago, TGO David said:

So much seems so volatile right now that I'll honestly be surprised if any part of "the norm" is still part of the norm after this year gets done with it.

I'm hoping one of the changes to the "norm" is the permanent shift of companies to remote work were possible.    Before the virus, some companies wouldn't entertain the idea on most of their jobs, but were forced to and saw that it actually worked better than expected.  

 The reduced traffic load has been truly nice.   It's reduced my 50 minute one way commute down to 40, and mental frustration is less.  Unfortunately my job doesn't afford remote work, I'll take the side benefit and still enjoy it.   

[btq96r]

3 hours ago, TGO David said:

You are not wrong at all, but I hope the cycle truly does continue and 2020 isn't the year that the whole thing finally jumps off the rails and ends the loop.

So much seems so volatile right now that I'll honestly be surprised if any part of "the norm" is still part of the norm after this year gets done with it.

"The norm" is interpretative, but as long as the principal of gun ownership still exists, we'll make it through.  Trying to let history be my guide here.  I just keep thinking back to 1968...it was a bad year that brought on some very different, and even bad times for gun rights in retrospect, but not a fatal transition away from guns being in citizens hands.   I do understand how the volatility of everything going on at once can paint a bleak picture, however.

[Ronald_55]

32 minutes ago, btq96r said:

"The norm" is interpretative, but as long as the principal of gun ownership still exists, we'll make it through.  Trying to let history be my guide here.  I just keep thinking back to 1968...it was a bad year that brought on some very different, and even bad times for gun rights in retrospect, but not a fatal transition away from guns being in citizens hands.   I do understand how the volatility of everything going on at once can paint a bleak picture, however.

I have always wondered about 1968. That is also the year seat belts became mandatory in all new United States vehicles.

If it is not clear by the TP hoarding, people panic, which makes other people panic,....until a shortage of whatever it is occurs. It could be ammo, magazines, Tickle Me Elmo, or whatever. Some times a perceived shortage is as good as a real one to get people to panic. Used to happen every Christmas with the hot toy. People panic they if they can't find it for their kids and pay big bucks to get it off the secondary market. I clearly remember shopping with my Mom and seeing 2 ladies fight over a Cabbage Patch Doll. Like everything else, if people would just calm down, it would sort out. It will happen sooner or later. 

[Chucktshoes]

3 hours ago, Trekbike said:

I'm hoping one of the changes to the "norm" is the permanent shift of companies to remote work were possible.    Before the virus, some companies wouldn't entertain the idea on most of their jobs, but were forced to and saw that it actually worked better than expected.  

 The reduced traffic load has been truly nice.   It's reduced my 50 minute one way commute down to 40, and mental frustration is less.  Unfortunately my job doesn't afford remote work, I'll take the side benefit and still enjoy it.   

REI just put their brand new HQ that they spent the last two years building on the market. They never even used it. They’ve determined that they don’t need to keep folks in the office like they thought they did. 
 

 

[FrankD]

I kick myself regularly for not picking up a couple hundred PMAGs back when you could get a 100 case for $8/ea.  I would simply setup a table at a gun show with a hand written sign "30rd PMAGS - $12 Each" and would leave with a 50% return after selling them all in 30 minutes

[Dennis1209]

TGO David's prediction is about a month old now and we see the results. I'm going to drop an Edgar Cayce on you, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Forget the hanging chad, forget the Florida count controversy, the mail ins and dead people and cats voting; this November's election is going to be the nastiest and most prolonged election in history, if Trump wins the electoral college. The democraps are going to do some nasty things never before done, and I can see Nancy Pelosi as interim and temporary president if Trump wins. They're not hiding their agenda's, intentions and plans.

If the democraps take the presidency and control of Congress, it's all but over, period. From here on out, each day is going to get harder and harder to get anything gun and ammo related because of demand and other federal circuit court decisions. The SCOTUS John Roberts certainly did a 180, it almost appears someone has something on him?

This election is going to be one wild ride. If you need it and don't have it, well, you'll be paying big bucks for it until it's outlawed under Uncle Joe and the liberals. 

Can I interest anyone for $10.00 a round of 9mm???

[Dirtshooter]

42 minutes ago, Dennis1209 said:

The SCOTUS John Roberts certainly did a 180, it almost appears someone has something on him?

Sure acts like it don't he? Just another RINO. That is why all need term limits.

 

43 minutes ago, Dennis1209 said:

Can I interest anyone for $10.00 a round of 9mm???

Hold onto it and it may be worth 10 times that!!

[Raoul]

On 8/28/2020 at 11:18 AM, FrankD said:

I kick myself regularly for not picking up a couple hundred PMAGs back when you could get a 100 case for $8/ea.  I would simply setup a table at a gun show with a hand written sign "30rd PMAGS - $12 Each" and would leave with a 50% return after selling them all in 30 minutes

I just love irony.......

[Magiccarpetrides]

On 9/14/2020 at 5:57 PM, Dennis1209 said:

TGO David's prediction is about a month old now and we see the results. I'm going to drop an Edgar Cayce on you, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Forget the hanging chad, forget the Florida count controversy, the mail ins and dead people and cats voting; this November's election is going to be the nastiest and most prolonged election in history, if Trump wins the electoral college. The democraps are going to do some nasty things never before done, and I can see Nancy Pelosi as interim and temporary president if Trump wins. They're not hiding their agenda's, intentions and plans.

If the democraps take the presidency and control of Congress, it's all but over, period. From here on out, each day is going to get harder and harder to get anything gun and ammo related because of demand and other federal circuit court decisions. The SCOTUS John Roberts certainly did a 180, it almost appears someone has something on him?

This election is going to be one wild ride. If you need it and don't have it, well, you'll be paying big bucks for it until it's outlawed under Uncle Joe and the liberals. 

Can I interest anyone for $10.00 a round of 9mm???

What scares me more is the idea of Biden winning and Trump already not agreeing to a peaceful transfer of power.  Every day he just makes me wonder why the hell I have to vote for him on the Republican ticket.  We really got either end of a sh*t sandwich this year.  I guess I will take solace in the fact that Tennessee is going to go red regardless so I don't have to feel too guilty about voting for that narcissist again.  

Back to TGO David's thoughts...anyone still needing PMAG's there's a member or two in the classifieds slinging some.  I agree I think we will see another high capacity mag rush though without ammunition I don't see what people are really clamoring for mags for lol.

[Defender]

49 minutes ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

What scares me more is the idea of Biden winning and Trump already not agreeing to a peaceful transfer of power.  Every day he just makes me wonder why the hell I have to vote for him on the Republican ticket.  We really got either end of a sh*t sandwich this year.  I guess I will take solace in the fact that Tennessee is going to go red regardless so I don't have to feel too guilty about voting for that narcissist again.  

Back to TGO David's thoughts...anyone still needing PMAG's there's a member or two in the classifieds slinging some.  I agree I think we will see another high capacity mag rush though without ammunition I don't see what people are really clamoring for mags for lol.

I think he's afraid of rampant voter fraud stealing the election form him when he makes those kinds of statements.  I like him, but I do wish he'd just shut up sometimes.  I think he's turned out much better than I expected to be honest.  He wasn't my first choice, but he has stood up to the liberals for the most part.

[TGO David]

Brownell's currently has a deal on ten (10) Magpul 30-Round PMAG GEN M2 MOE mags for $94.99 if you use code "PTT" when you check out.

https://www.brownells.com/magazines/rifle-magazines/magazines/ar-15-pmag-gen-m2-moe-mag-223-5-56-30rd-polymer-blk-10pk-sku100006987-24192-79235.aspx

 

If you prefer the non-MOE version, you can get ten of those for $111.99 currently with the same code "PTT" at checkout.

https://www.brownells.com/magazines/rifle-magazines/magazines/ar-15-pmag-gen-m3-magazine-223-5-56-30rd-polymer-black-10pk-sku100012634-75487-120832.aspx

 

[Erich]

On 8/16/2020 at 5:22 PM, TGO David said:

So, what's next?   My prediction is that standard capacity magazines will soon become very scarce -- once again -- thanks to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals finally making the commonsense ruling that California's ban on magazines with capacities over 10-rounds is unconstitutional. ....

If you're reading this and thinking "Geez, I need to hurry up and buy some mags", I wouldn't dilly dally around.  ....

 

For those that may not follow the CA stuff, the CA AG filed for an en banc review toward the end of August, keeping the CA crowd at bay and allowing a bit more window before the obvious political future catalyst. Lucky. Still some good options out there.

Funny thing is this thread reminds me how fickle some folks are. The same prognostication and springboard event was posted 2 day prior, but at that time it's suggestion to buy soon had quite a different reception. Specifically that suggesting buying mags or doing so ahead of the run creates the problem, and anyone here should already have all those that they need.  Big swing in just 2 days! Or the meds kicked in

 

 

[Quavodus]

Just ordered one today. 

[willis68]

I currently have 50 30 round Gen 2 and 3 windowed Pmags for my Tavor, I bought a case a few years ago and kept a bunch 

I make it a rule to own 5 magazines for each Handgun High capacity and at least 10 magazines for each rifle my AK47 now has 7 Circle 10 30 round magazines and a few steel ones I agree their will be a shortage that is the main reason I started stocking up