SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[jgradyc]

4 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

I haven't read much about it, but my biggest question about the coming vaccine is what is the plan for an end game?  Will this vaccine be like measles or polio--one dose and good for life?  Or will it be like a flu shot--different every year and always needing to be adjusted or redeveloped?  If it's the latter, are we facing lockdowns and mask mandates for the rest of our days?  Are people ok with this?

This a great question! In my opinion, the end game is to hope it mutates out of existence, kinda like previous SARS. The vaccine is being held out to placate the masses, but realistically, not enough people are going to take the vaccine to get herd immunity. Only 36% got the flu shot last year and it's been around 40% for the past few years. There are lot of people who aren't going to take a vaccine that's been rushed to the market. I know that I won't be taking it. The best guess it that it will require periodic re-immunization... billions for the pharmaceutical industry. 

To me, the biggest hope is vitamin D. It's an antiviral and it modulates the deadly cytokine storm. Over 60 clinical trials are underway, which is impressive considering that vitamin D is generic and no pharmaceutical company can make billions by selling it. Scotland is giving free vitamin D to high risk populations. The UK has proposed a similar step. If the US would do this, it could stop the COVID spread by reducing its effects on some people to no more than the flu. Or at least, that's my personal theory. 

I buy my vitamins on sale and try to always keep at least a 3-month supply. There's currently a sale for online vitamin orders at Costco. IIRC, those 600 capsule bottles of vitamin D3 cost me $11.99 each. I anticipate at some point, the media will "discover" vitamin D and it will disappear off the shelves faster than toilet paper. 

[xsubsailor]

[KahrMan]

1 hour ago, xsubsailor said:

John Cooper says 5 of you have to leave.

[peejman]

2 hours ago, deerslayer said:

I haven't read much about it, but my biggest question about the coming vaccine is what is the plan for an end game?  Will this vaccine be like measles or polio--one dose and good for life?  Or will it be like a flu shot--different every year and always needing to be adjusted or redeveloped?  If it's the latter, are we facing lockdowns and mask mandates for the rest of our days?  Are people ok with this?

None of the vaccines we got as children were one-and-done. Most take 3 doses, some up to 5 doses. 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html

 

 

[deerslayer]

3 minutes ago, peejman said:

None of the vaccines we got as children were one-and-done. Most take 3 doses, some up to 5 doses. 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html

 

 

Right, but you can look at a series as one dose.  Get X and you are good.  Will a covid vaccine be the same?

Edited November 23, 2020 by deerslayer

[Moped]

2 hours ago, jgradyc said:

This a great question! In my opinion, the end game is to hope it mutates out of existence, kinda like previous SARS. The vaccine is being held out to placate the masses, but realistically, not enough people are going to take the vaccine to get herd immunity. Only 36% got the flu shot last year and it's been around 40% for the past few years. There are lot of people who aren't going to take a vaccine that's been rushed to the market. I know that I won't be taking it. The best guess it that it will require periodic re-immunization... billions for the pharmaceutical industry. 

To me, the biggest hope is vitamin D. It's an antiviral and it modulates the deadly cytokine storm. Over 60 clinical trials are underway, which is impressive considering that vitamin D is generic and no pharmaceutical company can make billions by selling it. Scotland is giving free vitamin D to high risk populations. The UK has proposed a similar step. If the US would do this, it could stop the COVID spread by reducing its effects on some people to no more than the flu. Or at least, that's my personal theory. 

I buy my vitamins on sale and try to always keep at least a 3-month supply. There's currently a sale for online vitamin orders at Costco. IIRC, those 600 capsule bottles of vitamin D3 cost me $11.99 each. I anticipate at some point, the media will "discover" vitamin D and it will disappear off the shelves faster than toilet paper. 

I take D3 everyday, along with a multi-vitamin for men over 50, which has more in it and a Sublingual B12.

[Moped]

2 hours ago, deerslayer said:

I haven't read much about it, but my biggest question about the coming vaccine is what is the plan for an end game?  Will this vaccine be like measles or polio--one dose and good for life?  Or will it be like a flu shot--different every year and always needing to be adjusted or redeveloped?  If it's the latter, are we facing lockdowns and mask mandates for the rest of our days?  Are people ok with this?

I'm guessing that it will be a yearly affair, just like the flu shot. BTW, flu has yet to mutate itself out of existance.  I don't think COVID will either, at least anytime soon.

[Moped]

Last Tuesday saw a new 1 Day High for COVID deaths in Knox County, 7 reported deaths.  Since Tuesday, Knox County has had 13 more people die from COVID, as reported by the Knox County Health Department. 

COVID deaths for Novemeber have far surpassed Septemember's record of 26 deaths and now are at 45, with 7 more days to go in the month.

Through July 2nd, we only had 5 people die in Knox County from COVID. Since then, we have had another 141 deaths.

All numbers are from the Knox County Health Department.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Moped

[Omega]

57 minutes ago, Moped said:

Last Tuesday saw a new 1 Day High for COVID deaths in Knox County, 7 reported deaths.  Since Tuesday, Knox County has had 13 more people die from COVID, as reported by the Knox County Health Department. 

COVID deaths for Novemeber have far surpassed Septemember's record of 26 deaths and now are at 45, with 7 more days to go in the month.

Through July 2nd, we only had 5 people die in Knox County from COVID. Since then, we have had another 141 deaths.

All numbers are from the Knox County Health Department.

Something is very wrong, maybe this is why the death rate info is not available on the TN.gov or CDC website for 2019, it shows no discernable increase.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year Death Rate Growth Rate
2020 8.880 1.120%
2019 8.782 1.120%
2018 8.685 1.220%
2017 8.580 1.240%
2016 8.475 1.270%
2015 8.369 1.270%
2014 8.264 1.290%
2013 8.159 0.090%
2012 8.152 0.090%
2011 8.145 0.090%
2010 8.138 0.090%
2009 8.131 0.090%
2008 8.124 -0.960%
2007 8.203 -0.950%
2006 8.282 -0.960%
2005 8.362 -0.940%
2004 8.441 -0.930%
2003 8.520 -0.330%
2002 8.548 -0.330%
2001 8.576 -0.310%
2000 8.603 -0.320%



Similar Countries Ranked by Death Rate
Country Name 2020 Death Rate
Latvia 14.740
Lithuania 13.910
Croatia 13.206
Hungary 12.697
Estonia 11.835
Germany 11.392
Greece 11.035
Japan 10.865
Portugal 10.813
Italy 10.658
Poland 10.314
Slovenia 10.148
Austria 9.919
Finland 9.862
Denmark 9.848
Belgium 9.784
Puerto Rico 9.734
Uruguay 9.474
United Kingdom 9.413
France 9.365
Aruba 9.296
Spain 9.213
Sweden 9.145
Barbados 9.105
Curacao 9.018
Netherlands 8.908
United States 8.880
Trinidad and Tobago 8.601
Malta 8.530
Switzerland 8.091
Norway 7.960
Seychelles 7.921
Channel Islands 7.872
Canada 7.803
Taiwan 7.760
Argentina 7.612
Cyprus 7.159
Luxembourg 7.114
New Zealand 7.083
Bahamas 6.920
Hong Kong 6.828
Iceland 6.773
Australia 6.647
Antigua and Barbuda 6.474
Chile 6.311
South Korea 6.305
Ireland 6.229
New Caledonia 5.894
French Polynesia 5.806
Israel 5.323
Guam 5.320
Panama 5.136
Singapore 4.752
Macao 4.087
Saudi Arabia 3.557
Kuwait 2.908
Oman 2.451
Bahrain 2.450
UAE 1.586
Qatar 1.298

[peejman]

3 hours ago, deerslayer said:

Right, but you can look at a series as one dose.  Get X and you are good.  Will a covid vaccine be the same?

It'll be whatever makes the drug companies the most money. Capitalism and all.  Also, this type of virus tends to mutate compared to polio or measles, so I think that will also drive it to be just another annual flu shot. 

 

2 hours ago, Omega said:

Something is very wrong, maybe this is why the death rate info is not available on the TN.gov or CDC website for 2019, it shows no discernable increase.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year Death Rate Growth Rate
2020 8.880 1.120%
2019 8.782 1.120%
2018 8.685 1.220%
2017 8.580 1.240%
2016 8.475 1.270%
2015 8.369 1.270%
2014 8.264 1.290%
2013 8.159 0.090%
2012 8.152 0.090%
2011 8.145 0.090%
2010 8.138 0.090%
2009 8.131 0.090%
2008 8.124 -0.960%
2007 8.203 -0.950%
2006 8.282 -0.960%
2005 8.362 -0.940%
2004 8.441 -0.930%
2003 8.520 -0.330%
2002 8.548 -0.330%
2001 8.576 -0.310%
2000 8.603 -0.320%



Similar Countries Ranked by Death Rate
Country Name 2020 Death Rate
Latvia 14.740
Lithuania 13.910
Croatia 13.206
Hungary 12.697
Estonia 11.835
Germany 11.392
Greece 11.035
Japan 10.865
Portugal 10.813
Italy 10.658
Poland 10.314
Slovenia 10.148
Austria 9.919
Finland 9.862
Denmark 9.848
Belgium 9.784
Puerto Rico 9.734
Uruguay 9.474
United Kingdom 9.413
France 9.365
Aruba 9.296
Spain 9.213
Sweden 9.145
Barbados 9.105
Curacao 9.018
Netherlands 8.908
United States 8.880
Trinidad and Tobago 8.601
Malta 8.530
Switzerland 8.091
Norway 7.960
Seychelles 7.921
Channel Islands 7.872
Canada 7.803
Taiwan 7.760
Argentina 7.612
Cyprus 7.159
Luxembourg 7.114
New Zealand 7.083
Bahamas 6.920
Hong Kong 6.828
Iceland 6.773
Australia 6.647
Antigua and Barbuda 6.474
Chile 6.311
South Korea 6.305
Ireland 6.229
New Caledonia 5.894
French Polynesia 5.806
Israel 5.323
Guam 5.320
Panama 5.136
Singapore 4.752
Macao 4.087
Saudi Arabia 3.557
Kuwait 2.908
Oman 2.451
Bahrain 2.450
UAE 1.586
Qatar 1.298

I find this curious as well.  I had my annual physical a couple weeks ago and of course I chatted with the doc about covid. He thought the continuing increase in reported deaths odd as well as no one had called him with symptoms in several weeks. He also said hed had only 1 patient die, and that person weighed 500lbs with a list of other problems. 

[Oh Shoot]

4 hours ago, Omega said:

Something is very wrong, maybe this is why the death rate info is not available on the TN.gov or CDC website for 2019, it shows no discernable increase.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year Death Rate Growth Rate
2020 8.880 1.120%
,,,

"NOTE: All 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus"

- OS

[jgradyc]

I decided to see how this flu season is going and so far, it's almost nonexistent! The CDC flu data tracker shows 319 positive cases so far this flu season vs 5,299 at this point last flu season. That's 94% fewer cases!) I don't know how these numbers are determined, but they do provide a way to compare week to week and season to season.)

This is an interactive webpage so you'll have to dig around, but it has some interesting charts on the flu.  

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

[Grayfox54]

Maybe they can come up with a yearly combination Flu/Covid shot.  One shot each fall just like the regular flu shot many of us already take. 

[ReeferMac]

14 hours ago, peejman said:

I find this curious as well.  I had my annual physical a couple weeks ago and of course I chatted with the doc about covid. He thought the continuing increase in reported deaths odd as well as no one had called him with symptoms in several weeks. He also said hed had only 1 patient die, and that person weighed 500lbs with a list of other problems. 

This, along with 5,000,000 other incidental data points just like it, aught to make everyone scratch their head about this whole situation.

[gregintenn]

Phil Valentine said today he believes vitamin D is your best tool to combat COVID. Phil seems to have a pretty good track record of honesty.

[Garufa]

27 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Phil Valentine said today he believes vitamin D is your best tool to combat COVID. Phil seems to have a pretty good track record of honesty.

Phil Valentine doesn’t know jack about medicine but yes, vitamin D is a fairly well-known combatant against illness, especially during the winter months when our sunlight is decreased.

@jgradyc has been telling y’all the whole time.

Edited November 25, 2020 by Garufa

[DaveTN]

As I understand it one of the vaccines (it appears two will be released about the same time) requires two shots 3 weeks apart. More are in the works, as vaccines are the way out.

I have taken a bunch of vitamins everyday for years. The vitamin D claim is certainly controversial, but there is no reason not to take it daily. It obviously isn’t the way out or we would not be seeing what we are seeing now, but hopefully vitamins help.

[xsubsailor]

[gregintenn]

13 hours ago, Garufa said:

Phil Valentine doesn’t know jack about medicine but yes, vitamin D is a fairly well-known combatant against illness, especially during the winter months when our sunlight is decreased.

@jgradyc has been telling y’all the whole time.

I've seen little evidence that Anthony Faucci knows any more than the rest of us.

[peejman]

1 hour ago, gregintenn said:

I've seen little evidence that Anthony Faucci knows any more than the rest of us.

Indeed.  I'm sure he's a smart guy, but I don't know how someone with such minimal leadership skills ascends to head of the CDC. I'm also sure Trump hamstrung him a bit at the beginning, but the total lack of recovery is telling. 

[jgradyc]

15 hours ago, Garufa said:

Phil Valentine doesn’t know jack about medicine but yes, vitamin D is a fairly well-known combatant against illness, especially during the winter months when our sunlight is decreased.

@jgradyc has been telling y’all the whole time.

I'm retired and a competitive runner so I've researched everything related to COVID and vitamin D. I even wrote an Op-Ed for the NYTimes and when it was rejected, I wrote a different one for the Wall Street Journal... also rejected. Over 60 clinical trials on vitamin D are underway right now, which is impressive considering that it's generic and no pharmaceutical company can make billions selling it. Dr. Fauci admitted taking vitamin D himself, but he still won't recommend it to the masses... infuriating!!! Meanwhile, studies are appearing almost daily on the possible benefits of vitamin D. Here's one newly released study of seriously ill 50+ year olds that found that taking vitamin D AFTER hospitalization reduced the need for oxygen therapy from 61% of patients to only 17% of the patients taking D + B12 + magnesium. And these were really small doses if you take these supplements.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33039952/

[Moped]

1 hour ago, peejman said:

Indeed.  I'm sure he's a smart guy, but I don't know how someone with such minimal leadership skills ascends to head of the CDC. I'm also sure Trump hamstrung him a bit at the beginning, but the total lack of recovery is telling. 

Robert Redfield is the head of the CDC.  Faucci is the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectionous Diseases. 

He is in that role because he is the best suited for it. His job is not a political position. Trump brought a lot of this on, because of his damned refusal to face facts.  Fauci went a long with him, like a good soldier at first. Then realized that Trump was an idiot about this. Actually, he probably already knew that, but tried to play along anyway, until he got in over his head.  He's a Scientist, not a politicain or a business man.

God, what a piss pour choice we had for President in 2016!

[Erik88]

1 hour ago, peejman said:

I'm also sure Trump hamstrung him a bit at the beginning, but the total lack of recovery is telling. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the Trump administration pretty much been at odds with Faucci since the beginning, including ignoring most of his advice? I don't know how we can blame Faucci for the lack of progress when he's repeatedly been kicked down and called an idiot from just about everyone that thinks Trump is right. The only thing I think they got wrong initially was mask use. Now it's mostly the hardcore Trump fans that refuse to wear them so that wouldn't have mattered anyways. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Erik88

[gregintenn]

44 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the Trump administration pretty much been at odds with Faucci since the beginning, including ignoring most of his advice? I don't know how we can blame Faucci for the lack of progress when he's repeatedly been kicked down and called an idiot from just about everyone that thinks Trump is right. The only thing I think they got wrong initially was mask use. Now it's mostly the hardcore Trump fans that refuse to wear them so that wouldn't have mattered anyways. 

Do you have any concrete evidence you could share that masks work?

[peejman]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the Trump administration pretty much been at odds with Faucci since the beginning, including ignoring most of his advice? I don't know how we can blame Faucci for the lack of progress when he's repeatedly been kicked down and called an idiot from just about everyone that thinks Trump is right. The only thing I think they got wrong initially was mask use. Now it's mostly the hardcore Trump fans that refuse to wear them so that wouldn't have mattered anyways. 

Hence my leadership skills comment. If he had any he would have told Trump to sit down, shut up, and listen to someone who knows what he's talking about. 

My memory of the mask use issue was they were initially afraid the public would suck up all the masks leaving none for the medical folks, so they fibbed to prevent that.