SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[Moped]

Three more deaths in Knox County as of this morning.  Bringing the total to 13.  And 41 in the hospital.  Since July 1st, we've had 8 deaths. In the previous 3 months we only had 5 deaths.

[Soothfast]

The US states are closing down again because of the another surge of the virus. It is just out of control, I really am speechless how their government work.

[Grayfox54]

So far Tennessee is doing pretty good. Other states are having serious problems. 

Between a rush to reopen, contradictory information and human stupidity, what we now have isn't a second wave. Its a flood! New records are being set every day. Bear in mind that the Spanish Flu epidemic lasted for two full years. (1918-1920) This is just the beginning. We have a very long way to go yet.  Its gonna be a rough ride. 

Edited July 14, 2020 by Grayfox54

[Chucktshoes]

1 minute ago, Grayfox54 said:

So far Tennessee is doing pretty good. Other states are having serious problems. 

Between a rush to reopen, contradictory information and human stupidity, what we now have isn't a second wave. Its a flood! New records are being set every day. Bear in mind that the Spanish Flu epidemic lasted for three years. (1917-1920) This is just the beginning. We have a very long way to go yet.  Its gonna be a rough ride. 

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. 
 

The only way out of this is through. 

[Smith]

16 hours ago, Grayfox54 said:

So far Tennessee is doing pretty good. Other states are having serious problems. 

Between a rush to reopen, contradictory information and human stupidity, what we now have isn't a second wave. Its a flood! New records are being set every day. Bear in mind that the Spanish Flu epidemic lasted for two full years. (1918-1920) This is just the beginning. We have a very long way to go yet.  Its gonna be a rough ride. 

That's just grossly innacurate. Percentage of test to positive had remained neutral if not negative, death rate continues to drop to less than .05%. In over three months of reopening levels stayed dormant until the heat hit.

NY, NJ, Boston have huge death numbers that the current numbers of FL, TX, and GA don't even combine to come close to, even with a "surge". Total numbers in every group with the exception of 20-29 year old continue the steady decline. 

As to reopening, less heat hit states like Colorado (opened with Georgia) are at  a -43% increase even with more testing. 

Children and young adults still have a death rate so low it doesn't even show.

There are two ways this ends. Vaccine, we still don't even have one for the flu, or herd immunity. The latter is most likely and realistic. 

The objective with flattening a curve is not to eradicate it but to manage the herd immunity through the natural spread.

Context and numbers have to be looked at together.

[Moped]

Knox County reported 118 new cases today, another death (14 total now) And 40 hospitalized. 
https://covid.knoxcountytn.gov/case-count.html

[Oh Shoot]

8 hours ago, Smith said:

.....

There are two ways this ends. Vaccine, we still don't even have one for the flu,

???

We DO have flu vaccines. About 50-75% effective each year, depending.  I wouldn't expect a Covid vaccine to do any better than that at least initially. Maybe over time it would due to better refinement,  IF the virus doesn't mutate like the influenza strains do.

Of course, wait for the AntiVax movement to get cranking also. After all, we're already being mind controlled by the many decades of fluoride in the water, right?

Quote

or herd immunity. The latter is most likely and realistic.

Looking like maybe not, as current indications are that folks are getting infected more than once.  Seems that the antibodies from having a case may not be particularly long lived and/or vary according to severity of the case.

Even if so, herd immunity would take about a 70% infection saturation, which will mean many millions of deaths just in US.

- OS

Edited July 15, 2020 by Oh Shoot

[FUJIMO]

Multiple companies are looking for volunteers to test the vaccine in case anyone wants to step up. They'll make you famous

[DaveTN]

If nothing else we are seeing how the manipulation of numbers can be applied to show anything you like. Just like they do with violence involving guns or the Presidential poll numbers.

[quedz]

55 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

If nothing else we are seeing how the manipulation of numbers can be applied to show anything you like.

Like the old accountant "joke"...

There once was a business owner who was interviewing people for a division manager position. He decided to select the individual that could answer the question "how much is 2+2?"                                  The accountant looked at the business owner, then got out of his chair, went to see if anyone was listening at the door and pulled the drapes. Then he returned to the business owner, leaned across the desk and said in a low voice, "What would you like it to be?"

[peejman]

6 hours ago, Oh Shoot said:

Looking like maybe not, as current indications are that folks are getting infected more than once.  Seems that the antibodies from having a case may not be particularly long lived and/or vary according to severity of the case.

Which contradicts what we think we know about how the human immune system works. If multiple positive tests produce similar symptoms each time, then either we dont know how the immune system works, or there's multiple strains of C19, or its mutating that fast (which basically nullifies a vaccine).

If subsequent positive tests produce no symptoms, then the immune system works like we think it does. I'm not sure why people with no symptoms get tested, other than being forced to by their employer due to exposure.

Its perfectly reasonable for a person with immunity to test positive, their immune system is doing its job. The anti-vax crowd has proven that these viruses are still around. Just because the vast majority of the public is immune doesn't mean the virus has been eradicated, it just means you don't have symptoms. I suspect the public would be shocked at the results if we started testing for measles, small pox, or polio. 

As for data manipulation...  there's lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

[deerslayer]

3 hours ago, FUJIMO said:

Multiple companies are looking for volunteers to test the vaccine in case anyone wants to step up. They'll make you famous

Pass

[gregintenn]

How accurate are the tests? I’ve read multiple accounts of sterile swabs getting positive results and people testing positive who never have symptoms. I can’t verify the sterile swab positive tests, but I know several folks who’ve tested positive yet never got sick.

[DaveTN]

13 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

How accurate are the tests? I’ve read multiple accounts of sterile swabs getting positive results and people testing positive who never have symptoms. I can’t verify the sterile swab positive tests, but I know several folks who’ve tested positive yet never got sick.

They don’t know. They know there are false positives. They also know there are people that are positive and have no symptoms.

[hipower]

Probably been said before, but...Can you be "Positive" and not be sick, that is be actively infected, that is in my opinion...suffering from the infection, and contagious?

Lumping all test results into one pile, so to speak, cannot be a true representation.

[hipower]

1 hour ago, peejman said:

 

As for data manipulation...  there's lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

And we have a Winner! Best comment I've seen recently on the testing procedure and results.

[Omega]

5 minutes ago, hipower said:

Probably been said before, but...Can you be "Positive" and not be sick, that is be actively infected, that is in my opinion...suffering from the infection, and contagious?

Lumping all test results into one pile, so to speak, cannot be a true representation.

Far as we have been told, and it may be BS, is that you can be asymptomatic and still pass on the virus.  But many have also said that it is extremely rare and with the virus possibly being all over the place. there is no knowing where the virus originated from, so the asymptomatic person may not have been the source in the first place.  

[Smith]

13 minutes ago, hipower said:

Probably been said before, but...Can you be "Positive" and not be sick, that is be actively infected, that is in my opinion...suffering from the infection, and contagious?

Lumping all test results into one pile, so to speak, cannot be a true representation.

My understanding is that a person who has had a virus will have the virus in their system (basically indefinitely?), even though the strain will be dead. Antibodies did their job. The test will be positive since the test only test for presence of the virus strain. 

So the test only test for the virus strain, not whether it is active or dead. Symptoms are the indicator of a live strain. I'm sure I'm missing some things but that is how the medical specialist I've talked to explained it to me.

I will add for the conspiracy desire in us, I've also been told they can tell whether a virus strain is active or dead if they want, but the basic test simply test for presence not status.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Smith

[hipower]

Just now, Smith said:

My understanding is that a person who has had a virus will have the virus in their system (basically indefinitely?), even though the strain will be dead. Antibodies did their job. The test will be positive since the test only test for presence of the virus strain. 

So the test only test for the virus strain, not whether it is active or dead. Symptoms are the indicator of a live strain. I'm sure I'm missing some things but that is how the medical specialist I've talked to explained it to me.

Yet all the "Positives" are lumped in the statistics as "cases." And the media is using "cases" to mean dire things like hospitalized, deathly ill and dying. What percentage of "cases" are actually hospitalized?

Again...scare tactics. I do believe in the Covid19 virus. It does exist. More lethal than influenza and all the other flu strains? Probable. 

Necessary to destroy the economy and social structure to combat it? I'm still having a hard time with that.

[DaveTN]

27 minutes ago, hipower said:

Probably been said before, but...Can you be "Positive" and not be sick, that is be actively infected, that is in my opinion...suffering from the infection, and contagious?

That’s the question with opening the schools. Can the kid transmit it to parents or grandparents.

There are those that argue both ways; they can/can’t.

I’ve not seen anything that leads me to believe they know how or where anyone picked up the virus. Without knowing that, they can’t answer the question.

Those of you that lived through the AIDS virus remember that for YEARS they said how the virus CAN and CAN’T be transmitted. They didn’t know then and I don’t think they know enough about this virus or how its transmitted to know now. It was political then (kids in school, and first responders) and its political now.

[Smith]

10 minutes ago, hipower said:

Yet all the "Positives" are lumped in the statistics as "cases." And the media is using "cases" to mean dire things like hospitalized, deathly ill and dying. What percentage of "cases" are actually hospitalized?

Again...scare tactics. I do believe in the Covid19 virus. It does exist. More lethal than influenza and all the other flu strains? Probable. 

Necessary to destroy the economy and social structure to combat it? I'm still having a hard time with that.

It's definitely real and definitely bad ... for those in the danger zone: elderly and underlying health issues - typically both together. The cases vs. hospitalization still remains extremely low. Death rate is now below .05% overall and the death rate for 29 yrs and younger is lower than the standard flu.

In fact, for those bemoaning schools reopening and economy reopening and then claim we (US) are handling worse than the rest of the world, the rest of the world is open and has been open for a while. School in Europe has been open for months at this point and the numbers continue to decline. There is zero correlation with closed economies/schools and reduction in viral transmission.

NY is a great case for what happens when you do everything wrong.They did not flatten anything. 35000 dead, but the cases are now in decline and some precincts are reporting an estimated 50% herd immunity now. Essential the virus killed off those susceptible and those left are now naturally immunizing. More could have survived if they had handled things like most other states, but it is an indicator that a second "wave" is not just highly unlikely, at least the way it's pitched in the media and by a couple folks here, but also not how viruses and the immune system work. 

 

[Moped]

Another death in Knox County overnight.  68 more cases and 4 more people in the hospital. I figured out they seem to be updating the ICU bed count only once a week.  Today they updated it. There are 24 unoccupied ICU beds out of 272 total ICU beds. That puts is at 91.2% occupany.  

[Oh Shoot]

7 hours ago, Smith said:

My understanding is that a person who has had a virus will have the virus in their system (basically indefinitely?), even though the strain will be dead. Antibodies did their job. The test will be positive since the test only test for presence of the virus strain. 

So the test only test for the virus strain, not whether it is active or dead....

There are two types of tests.

Viral test: people who have active case test positive, then later negative when they've kicked it.

Antibody test: Detected from a past case, and from an active case also, if the antibody levels have already built up enough to register.

The relative accuracy of the viral test seems the more problematic regarding both false positives and negatives.

- OS

Edited July 15, 2020 by Oh Shoot

[Erik88]

At this point I primarily come to TGO to get my daily dose of conspiracy theory. Highly entertaining. 

[xsubsailor]

10 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

At this point I primarily come to TGO to get my daily dose of conspiracy theory. Highly entertaining. 

 I've got a really good one for you but it has nothing to do with this virus.  I can't post it though until I get to Costco and get one (or two) of their commercial size rolls of tin foil.