SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[Snaveba]

13 minutes ago, peejman said:

Not price gouging, capitalism. Where there's panic, there's profit. 

Which makes me wonder about this stock market silliness.  How is the DOW "plummeting" with all this unprecedented spending going on?  

The rich are going to get richer in this market. 

[AuEagle]

On 3/12/2020 at 7:20 PM, Garufa said:

I was thinking about that shortly after posting and how I could rig up a redneck bidet.  I do have a short length of hose and one of those old waterbed faucet adapters somewhere .

[xsubsailor]

 This is an interesting development 

Asked if he was considering any domestic travel restrictions, Trump said: "Yes, specifically from certain areas, yes we are."

"We're working with the states and we're considering other restrictions, yes," he said.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-european-travel-ban-uk-ireland

[MacGyver]

5 minutes ago, xsubsailor said:

 This is an interesting development 

Asked if he was considering any domestic travel restrictions, Trump said: "Yes, specifically from certain areas, yes we are."

"We're working with the states and we're considering other restrictions, yes," he said.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-european-travel-ban-uk-ireland

I expect you’ll see national restrictions and flights grounded in the next few days.

Even with as little testing as we’re doing, you’re still seeing cases double every three days.  This is the exponential doubling we’re worried about - and lack of testing likely means we’re a few days closer to Italy than we think.

We may be too late - but on our current path, estimates suggest we could have 9.4 million sick and 1 million dead at the same time. Note that we have 95,000 ICU beds in the US - and this load would suggest we’d need 460,000.

This isn’t a guess or some worst case scenario. This is math coupled with what we’ve seen in Italy - another first world country.

Seriously. If you can hole up for a couple weeks - consider it your civic duty.

 

[maroonandwhite]

9 hours ago, hipower said:

PSA has a similar notice up. 

I dare say that none of us here are ill-prepared in the area of firearms and accessories. So shipping delays won't be an issue.

I luckily order an upper Thursday morning from PSA that got shipped same day. I guess I just beat the rush. 

[BrasilNuts]

2 hours ago, AuEagle said:

You might tough that out, but your wife is going to use it once then tell you to figure out how to warm it up.

[Snaveba]

So in an earlier post to this thread, I mentioned that I know someone who tested positive for the virus.

My wife and I attended an event last Saturday evening where there was an attendee who was unknowingly positive for Covid-19. This is the person I was referring to. He tested positive just after the event as did his wife.

There have now been numerous parents who tested positive after attending this event including my wife. We have been quarantined since Wednesday when we heard about the exposure. My wife had minor symptoms leading up to getting tested and only did so at the request of her supervisor. Otherwise, the symptoms were so mild we would have discounted them completely. Up to this point and I have not had any symptoms. 

I believe most who attend and are positive are doing well, but I do know of at least one person who is in the hospital.

if I understand correctly, there could be  16 positive cases from this one event. That close to doubles the number in the State as of earlier this week. This was a relatively small event with maybe 100-150 people. As easily as  it was transmitted there, I expect to see the number of cases jump significantly in Tennessee and the US over the next week. 

Demographically, we are both 50 with a 14.5yo daughter.  We are doing well, have food and TP. Just not looking forward to another week+ in the house. (Especially with an upset 14.5yo moody daughter who did not get to go to the beach for Spring Break, and who is mad that Billie Eilish postponed her concert here at Bridgestone.  

Edited March 15, 2020 by Snaveba

[MacGyver]

Prayers for you and your wife. Keep us apprised.

I was also just notified of someone who has tested positive and is not doing well at all.  He’s six days in the hospital - and just got results back this evening. He’s older and has several mitigating conditions.

 

[Snaveba]

5 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

Prayers for you and your wife. Keep us apprised.

I was also just notified of someone who has tested positive and is not doing well at all.  He’s six days in the hospital - and just got results back this evening. He’s older and has several mitigating conditions.

 

Thanks. 
Prayers to your friend as well. 

[Erik88]

1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

I expect you’ll see national restrictions and flights grounded in the next few days.

Even with as little testing as we’re doing, you’re still seeing cases double every three days.  This is the exponential doubling we’re worried about - and lack of testing likely means we’re a few days closer to Italy than we think.

We may be too late - but on our current path, estimates suggest we could have 9.4 million sick and 1 million dead at the same time. Note that we have 95,000 ICU beds in the US - and this load would suggest we’d need 460,000.

This isn’t a guess or some worst case scenario. This is math coupled with what we’ve seen in Italy - another first world country.

Seriously. If you can hole up for a couple weeks - consider it your civic duty.

 

I just shared your post with my dad who is high risk and not taking this that seriously. Question on the testing. Why are we not testing more people? What's the reason the tests are hard to come by?

 

Also, I cancelled my flight to Portland. I realized how stupid it was and I'm afraid I might get stuck out there. This is why I need to hide my credit card after I've had a few beers...

[DWARREN123]

Good interview in my opinion.

People get so crazy sometimes over things they can not control but let slide things they can control.

[MacGyver]

3 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

I just shared your post with my dad who is high risk and not taking this that seriously. Question on the testing. Why are we not testing more people? What's the reason the tests are hard to come by?

 

Also, I cancelled my flight to Portland. I realized how stupid it was and I'm afraid I might get stuck out there. This is why I need to hide my credit card after I've had a few beers...

Several reasons.

The CDC failed to leverage the work others had done and developed their own test.  That test was later found to have problems with reliability after shipping. So it set us back a couple of weeks.

The administration does share a lot of blame for failing to treat this with the seriousness it deserved up until earlier this week.

Now, tests are being severely rationed because while we've got plenty of actual tests at this point- we don't have the reagents to operationalize them at anywhere near full capacity. Specifically, we don't have enough RNA isolation and RT-PCR kits.

So, we're starting way behind the curve.  We don't actually know how far behind the curve we are.  We'll know in the next few days.

You made the right decision staying home.  You don't want to be stuck 2000 miles from home.

[gregintenn]

Wow! It seems weird for me to be the most positive poster on the forum!

It’s a bad cold.

[GlockSpock]

14 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Wow! It seems weird for me to be the most positive poster on the forum!

It’s a bad cold.

Staying positive is good. 
 

It’s a bad cold, which just happens to kill some people, spreads very quickly, generally has zero preventative care other than sanitation, requires intensive care for for those it affects the worse, and generally overwhelms most any healthcare system.

If you don’t think that China as well as the many parts of the world essentially pausing (quarantines, curfews, lockdowns, travel restrictions, delayed or shutdown shipping, loss of business to small businesses, etc etc etc) for weeks or months will have global consequences, I wish I could be as optimistic as you.
 

I sincerely wish, hope, and pray the optimistic people are right this time. 

[bud]

.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by bud

[Snaveba]

That data is out of date.  I know of almost 20 new cases in Nashville just from the last  4 days. 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Snaveba

[bud]

.

Edited December 24, 2020 by bud

[Wingshooter]

6 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I expect you’ll see national restrictions and flights grounded in the next few days.

Even with as little testing as we’re doing, you’re still seeing cases double every three days.  This is the exponential doubling we’re worried about - and lack of testing likely means we’re a few days closer to Italy than we think.

We may be too late - but on our current path, estimates suggest we could have 9.4 million sick and 1 million dead at the same time. Note that we have 95,000 ICU beds in the US - and this load would suggest we’d need 460,000.

This isn’t a guess or some worst case scenario. This is math coupled with what we’ve seen in Italy - another first world country.

Seriously. If you can hole up for a couple weeks - consider it your civic duty.

 

I think you’re right about the potential flight restrictions. Airlines will be cutting their schedules as well since bookings have disappeared. I’m a pilot for a major airline, and they’re saying this is like nothing they’ve ever experienced (including 9/11). The economic damage will be severe, but I pray it won’t be crippling to our futures and economy.

I’ve had a lot of time off (over a month), but I’m scheduled to work next week. I have elderly parents staying with us right now, and I sure don’t want to drag anything back to them. I think staying away from people for a couple weeks is great advice though. We need to stop the spread

[Refleks]

Our own website mentioned the number of tests are only in the hundreds. That means there is very little correlation between confirmed and actual cases, the number of infected are likely orders of magnitude higher. Given what we know about the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission along with how little the media or official announcements are emphasizing that potential risk, we are about to see a significant rise in cases that didn’t have to happen.

[AuEagle]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

[Erik88]

I don't mean this towards anyone here but I have to say it. I feel like we've entered a parallel universe when it comes to the response. My more conservative friends think this is being blown out of proportion by the media. These are the friends that would normally be in favor of self reliance and prepardness. Now they are doing nothing and largely dismissing it.

Meanwhile, my liberal friends that years ago made fun of the doomsday preppers, and would largely just depend on the government to save them, are taking this very seriously. They are stocking up on everything(minus ammo of course). I never thought I'd see a pandemic have the opposite impact on being prepared.

When it's all said and done I think the thing people will need the most is an emergency fund. This is sadly what most are lacking.

I feel bad for all the hospitality and service industry workers. There are a lot of kids paying their rent from tip money that are going to be in a world of hurt soon. Have sympathy for them if nothing else. The economic impact is going to be disastrous. I know you've seen me bitch about our debt deficit for many years. Now that we actually need urgent action it's scary to think how few levers they have left to pull. Rates are already so low and our deficit so high. Imagine them trying to spend their way out if this continues.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Erik88
Typo

[gregintenn]

To clarify my earlier post, I do not dismiss anything David or MacGyver say. They are head and shoulders above me intellectually, but I just can't see this being nearly as bad as is reported.

If the current hysteria keeps up for any length of time, however, I believe Erik is right on the money....the economic ramifications of shutting everything down will take a while to get over.

I firmly believe that panic will cause a lot more devastation than the virus.

If nothing else, this is a perfect teachable moment to illustrate the importance of being prepared.

Edited March 15, 2020 by gregintenn

[Wingshooter]

This site shows a good graphic for tracking the virus.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Alleycat72]

There are some reports that a county in Tennessee has denied all coronavirus tests for fear of having a positive in that county. One group owns most of the small offices in the county and that group is the one doing the approvals. I think the hysteria is BS, but people that want to be tested should be. 

[Snaveba]

47 minutes ago, alleycat72 said:

There are some reports that a county in Tennessee has denied all coronavirus tests for fear of having a positive in that county. One group owns most of the small offices in the county and that group is the one doing the approvals. I think the hysteria is BS, but people that want to be tested should be. 

If that is true, that is ignorance treading on malpractice. It is already IN that county