SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[peejman]

1 hour ago, btq96r said:

I've found that the best purpose of models/projecting isn't to think you know the answer, but to force deliberate thought and planning.  In my organization, almost all of the models I present make us go in the direction of "what if" on an idea looking at the model brings out.

I agree, this is definitely an instance where having a idea of the worst case scenario is valid. I just think far too many people took it at face value so it created undue distress. 

Then again, it seems to take some level of shock value to get folks attention these days. So perhaps a "shock and awe" strategy was warranted. 

It's a pet peeve how some tend to present the computer model results as gospel without any sort of understanding of the assumptions and variability. When the talking heads start up with that, my BS meter jumps into the red real fast. I guess it's the engineer in me. 

[btq96r]

38 minutes ago, peejman said:

I agree, this is definitely an instance where having a idea of the worst case scenario is valid. I just think far too many people took it at face value so it created undue distress. 

Then again, it seems to take some level of shock value to get folks attention these days. So perhaps a "shock and awe" strategy was warranted. 

It's a pet peeve how some tend to present the computer model results as gospel without any sort of understanding of the assumptions and variability. When the talking heads start up with that, my BS meter jumps into the red real fast. I guess it's the engineer in me. 

I'm sure there's some level of shock value going on, if for no other reason than so the powers that be aren't accused of being wrong in the less desirable way.  There has also been some level of trying to downplay fears on the supply side so individuals don't purchase things that are essential to hospitals (masks come to mind).  Terms like "we think" or "we hope" don't inspire confidence, so people in government tend to try and be declarative in a realm where variability can eat away your credibility real quick.

But even a model built on some understandable guesses with assumptions can give you something to go with since imperfect plans are better than no plans to get people and resources in gear.  Starting with the most conservative/restrictive formulation usually gives you the most flexibility as needs are found to be exaggerated, and assets can stretch further.  But sometimes that's the wrong answer if you're trying to optimize asset use or the goal is fiscal conservatism where you can live with delays/inefficiencies instead of paying to overcome them.  Just depends on the needs and priorities of the moment.

I do think folks who are just told what the model says then sent to brief it are pretty useless.  We live in a world where challenging assumptions should be expected.  But that's also incumbent on analytical types to be able to explain things in a way that can be understood.  You don't always need someone who can do the math, but you need someone who understands the broad strokes of the inputs, and can explain it to a room full of people, then in front of the camera for a wider audience.  If we have someone who can do the math, understand it all, and explain it to the average citizen...that person is clearly a threat to elected officials and must be keep away from the public eye.

Edited April 6, 2020 by btq96r

[peejman]

1 hour ago, btq96r said:

If we have someone who can do the math, understand it all, and explain it to the average citizen...that person is clearly a threat to elected officials and must be keep away from the public eye.

 

[RED333]

2 hours ago, xsubsailor said:

upload img

Twilight Zone, I remember that episode well.

[xsubsailor]

 

 

For those who are more talented.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by xsubsailor

[DaveTN]

Ya know, until this virus came about I had no idea you could take someone off the street, that wasn’t in the military, dress them up in a Navy Admirals uniform and call them the Surgeon General. Who knew??

That made me wonder what the heck those ribbons were for. So I learned something else I didn’t know. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Awards_and_decorations_of_the_Public_Health_Service

[gary_boom]

That really gives me a lot of confidence in Dr Jerome.

[PoofNoEyeBrows]

On 4/2/2020 at 1:04 PM, DaveTN said:

I just thought of this… when I was a cop and the weather was too bad for folks to go out, like 20 below zero, we would be detailed from one family fight to the next. I wonder if that’s happening now? 

Fort Campbell is locked down. What do you think an entire division, most of which live in the barracks or base housing is going to do. I can only imagine the number of njp's, office hours, and all the other goodies that are going to accumulate. Its only a matter of time before idiots start spider dropping off the tiers out of sheer boredom.

[Garufa]

Think what you will of Memphis but this kind of thing is why I will never be ashamed to be from there:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-memphis-n95-mask-repair-trnd/index.html

 

[FUJIMO]

13 minutes ago, Garufa said:

Think what you will of Memphis but this kind of thing is why I will never be ashamed to be from there:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-memphis-n95-mask-repair-trnd/index.html

 

I dont think a person should ever be ashamed to be where they are from. If anything its who you are and who you have become inspite of being from a certain place or situation. 

[Garufa]

1 minute ago, FUJIMO said:

I dont think a person should ever be ashamed to be where they are from. If anything its who you are and who you have become inspite of being from a certain place or situation. 

Oh, I’ve never felt that way at all, was just being a bit dramatic.  As a matter of fact my feeling Is quite the opposite...and always has been.   But that’s for another thread, lol.

[FUJIMO]

Just now, Garufa said:

Oh, I’ve never felt that way at all, was just being a bit dramatic.  As a matter of fact my feeling Is quite the opposite...and always has been.   But that’s for another thread, lol.

Lol gotcha. And being from this end of the state i can say you fit right in

[Erik88]

47 minutes ago, Garufa said:

Oh, I’ve never felt that way at all, was just being a bit dramatic.  As a matter of fact my feeling Is quite the opposite...and always has been.   But that’s for another thread, lol.

I had some really bad views on Memphis until I went there last year for that wedding I told you about. Midtown is great and I would have no issues living there if a job fell in my lap. 

[Chucktshoes]

1 minute ago, Erik88 said:

I had some really bad views on Memphis until I went there last year for that wedding I told you about. Midtown is great and I would have no issues living there if a job fell in my lap. 

No. It’s a pit. You really don’t want to live there.

[RED333]

1 hour ago, Garufa said:

Think what you will of Memphis but this kind of thing is why I will never be ashamed to be from there:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-memphis-n95-mask-repair-trnd/index.html

 

The state got it name some where, The Vol State.

[Refleks]

.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Refleks

[Chucktshoes]

John Prine didn’t make it. 
 

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/john-prine-obit-253684/
 

[Raoul]

24 minutes ago, Chucktshoes said:

John Prine didn’t make it. 
 

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/john-prine-obit-253684/
 

Saw that. Just damn........

[PoofNoEyeBrows]

[Erik88]

Does anyone know any charities or other organizations that are especially in need right now? I heard 2nd Harvest was seeing record demand right now.

[Magiccarpetrides]

2nd Harvest is always a good charity ...donating to your local shelter or zoo is also a good use of your donations.  I know the zoos are getting hit really hard.  The Knoxville Zoo cost about $22,000 a day to run and a lot of that money comes from daily visitors.

[MacGyver]

When I die let my ashes float down the Green River. 
Let my soul roll on up to the Rochester dam. 
I'll be halfway to Heaven with Paradise waitin'
Just five miles away from wherever I am.

Godspeed, John. 

[MacGyver]

56 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Does anyone know any charities or other organizations that are especially in need right now? I heard 2nd Harvest was seeing record demand right now.

Second Harvest is feeding a bunch of kids right now.

Likewise Room In the Inn is doing some heavy lifting among vulnerable populations.  

[Garufa]

13 hours ago, Chucktshoes said:

John Prine didn’t make it. 
 

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/john-prine-obit-253684/
 

 

12 hours ago, Raoul said:

Saw that. Just damn........

Listen to JP here all day long:  http://backlandradio.com/listen-live/

Edited April 8, 2020 by Garufa

[Chucktshoes]

5 minutes ago, Garufa said:

 

Listen to JP here all day long:  http://backlandradio.com/listen-live/

Here is his first review, written by Roger Ebert who left an awful movie and wandered into a JP show in 1970. 
 

https://www.rogerebert.com/features/john-prine-american-legend

Edited April 8, 2020 by Chucktshoes