SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[Lumber_Jack]

12 hours ago, A.J. Holst said:

The Gateway Pundit is crowing they said it first, CV is less deadly than initially reported.

Go eff yourselves, saying less folks dying is a good thing is perverse.

While the averages reveal older, at risk, and 1 - 5 underlying medical issues are more likely to die, I read one report where a 20 something with no other known health issues died in her apartment.

It is at least as deadly as complications from traditional flu and is nasty in that it can survive in the environment for 30 minutes to 3 hours or more, or less...

I did have a buddy mention he felt the rapid spread was due to the routine exchange of paper money. Makes me wonder how long a robust virus like this could live on a reasonably protected peice of linen.

With allergy season upon us, I'm scared to safely clear my throat or cough in the office.

Overall death rate being lower means less elderly are dying too.  I don't understand how saying less people dying is anything but a good thing.  Italy death rate is 10%, US death rate is 1.3%.  Most folks were expecting US to emulate Italy, so far that hasn't happened.  Yes were are a few weeks behind their outbreak but we also have just 20k fewer cases country wide.  Yes those 737 deaths are still skewed towards folks over 50 but fewer is fewer no matter how you crack the egg

 

[A.J. Holst]

20 minutes ago, Lumber_Jack said:

  I don't understand how saying less people dying is anything but a good thing

My feelings on this specifically is it seems more important about who was right regarding the mortality rate, but I forgot about Don Henley and Dirty Laundry...

Considering initial reports of 40-60% of Americans contracting with 3-4% mortality rate = millions of dead Americans.

Dirty Laundry indeed.

[Lumber_Jack]

7 minutes ago, A.J. Holst said:

My feelings on this specifically is it seems more important about who was right regarding the mortality rate, but I forgot about Don Henley and Dirty Laundry...

Considering initial reports of 40-60% of Americans contracting with 3-4% mortality rate = millions of dead Americans.

Dirty Laundry indeed.

Well we knew that was coming regardless.  Tell people to stay home, total calamity is reduce, people say "see it wasn't that big of a deal".  Its the same concept.  News outlets only get to be "right" so rarely they're gonna shout from the rooftops when they get the chance

[MacGyver]

Interesting graphs of this morning’s jobless claims:

or, graphed against the Great Recession:

[Moped]

54 minutes ago, Lumber_Jack said:

Overall death rate being lower means less elderly are dying too.  I don't understand how saying less people dying is anything but a good thing.  Italy death rate is 10%, US death rate is 1.3%.  Most folks were expecting US to emulate Italy, so far that hasn't happened.  Yes were are a few weeks behind their outbreak but we also have just 20k fewer cases country wide.  Yes those 737 deaths are still skewed towards folks over 50 but fewer is fewer no matter how you crack the egg

 

I think you can attribute that to several factors.  The quality of healthcare in this country, along with the number of ICU beds we have.  And also the fact that our population is more spread out than Italy's and on average isn't as old and is in better physical health.  Of course, maybe I'm interpulating some of those factors.

[Lumber_Jack]

9 minutes ago, Moped said:

I think you can attribute that to several factors.  The quality of healthcare in this country, along with the number of ICU beds we have.  And also the fact that our population is more spread out than Italy's and on average isn't as old and is in better physical health.  Of course, maybe I'm interpulating some of those factors.

No, I think you're absolutely correct.  Look at NY City, simply population density has caused major spread.  Total cases are 20,000 with total deaths 208, thats 1.4%.  The major differences mainly being age distribution of population and overall health.  Italy has some top notch hospitals but the age distribution being skewed to the elderly overwhelmed their capabilities.   If we can continue to limit the spread and increase hospital capacity we will have managed this better than anyone expected

[MacGyver]

There's already evidence that shelter in place may be working in New York City.

They've gone from hospitalizations doubling every 2 days to hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days in less than a week.

We're still a long way from the peak there - but that's good news no matter how you look at it.

[Magiccarpetrides]

Spain's death rate is soaring however....it would be prudent for all of us if funds and supplies allow, to heed the CDC recommendations and just stay away from anyone that's not immediate family.  

[Lumber_Jack]

5 minutes ago, Magiccarpetrides said:

Spain's death rate is soaring however....it would be prudent for all of us if funds and supplies allow, to heed the CDC recommendations and just stay away from anyone that's not immediate family.  

yep, double what china reported as of today is 7.3%.  I agree we need to stay secluded for a bit longer

[Erik88]

Is it possible China lied about the death rate? We know they aren't know to be the most honest. 

[Lumber_Jack]

3 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible China lied about the death rate? We know they aren't know to be the most honest. 

exactly why I said "what china reported".  We certainly can't confirm those numbers

[FUJIMO]

35 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible China lied about the death rate? We know they aren't know to be the most honest. 

I'd say by the millions. Their humans rights policy.....well lmao. 

[Moped]

40 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible China lied about the death rate? We know they aren't know to be the most honest. 

I have no doubt they are lying their asses off!  The Chinese Government is as corrupt and diabolical as it comes!  I pity their people there!  

[btq96r]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible China lied about the death rate? We know they aren't know to be the most honest. 

I'd say more likely than possible.  They're already upset their perfect government society is being shown as overwhelmed in handling this as all the rest of us.  They're in full damage control mode to save face.

[jhunkin]

Wife just shared an article with me that's reports epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has revised his death estimates substantially lower...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

The Daily Wire also has a write up on it

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

[DaveTN]

Coronavirus Outbreak Sidelines Aircraft Carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/26/coronavirus-outbreak-sidelines-aircraft-carrier-uss-theodore-roosevelt

I suspect once they clear crews on these war ships; they will send them out with no port calls.

Edited March 26, 2020 by DaveTN

[quedz]

On 3/17/2020 at 9:19 AM, AuEagle said:

I'm happy to buy any gold or silver anyone doesn't want.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-relief-buoys-gold-miners

[FUJIMO]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closing-all-businesses-keeping-everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy

I hope Lee read this article

[TGO David]

2 hours ago, FUJIMO said:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closing-all-businesses-keeping-everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy

I hope Lee read this article

My wife and I were just commenting last night that Gov. Lee's slow walk towards shutting things down may have helped businesses prolong the inevitable, but it's not encouraging people to stay the hell home as they should.

[Raoul]

19 minutes ago, TGO David said:

My wife and I were just commenting last night that Gov. Lee's slow walk towards shutting things down may have helped businesses prolong the inevitable, but it's not encouraging people to stay the hell home as they should.

I'm kinda partial to Darwin. If you're too dumb to hunker down.......

[Chucktshoes]

This feels very topical. 
 

[GlockSpock]

28 minutes ago, Chucktshoes said:

This feels very topical. 
 

Sadly too too true. 
 

Make that True^2

True to the power of two?

I’ll be here all night, everyone.

Edited March 27, 2020 by GlockSpock
Edit for Math

[Chucktshoes]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2020/03/24/final-crisis-diamond-comic-distributors-halts-shipments-of-new-comics-in-response-to-covid-19-shutdowns/

On the subject of small businesses failing, this could be a mortal blow to the print conic book industry. 

 

[Magiccarpetrides]

9 hours ago, jhunkin said:

Wife just shared an article with me that's reports epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has revised his death estimates substantially lower...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

The Daily Wire also has a write up on it

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

If you do read that one to it’s conclusion he still stands by his possible deaths ...so now I’m even more confused lol.

[MacGyver]

As an old friend taught me a long time ago, “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

We've still got a lot of unknowns here - and they’ll likely not be known until we’ll after this current crisis is done.