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SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)


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It seems the speed at which it's spreading is the biggest problem.  Its hitting so many people so fast that it's overwhelming the ability to care for everyone.  I think the virus spreading across the globe is inevitable, the problem is slowing it down to a manageable rate. Hopefully the warmer weather in our hemisphere will help, but it may get worse as winter comes to the bottom half. 

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People really suck at understanding exponential math.

But yes, taking precautions to flatten the curve by social distancing and other measures will hopefully keep systems from becoming overwhelmed.

Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US (3.18/1000 as opposed to 2.77/1000). Japan and South Korea - which are the only countries thus far to actually change the slope of their curve have 12-13/1000.

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1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

People really suck at understanding exponential math.

But yes, taking precautions to flatten the curve by social distancing and other measures will hopefully keep systems from becoming overwhelmed.

Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US (3.18/1000 as opposed to 2.77/1000). Japan and South Korea - which are the only countries thus far to actually change the slope of their curve have 12-13/1000.

Folks in other countries have more widespread access to healthcare, without the financial consequences here, so seeing a doctor until last resort isn't standard practice.  I'm wondering if our system of for profit insurance will inadvertently help resource utilization.  There will be more than a few people who don't go into a hospital for fear of the bill it will create.  That's not good for their overall condition, but it's one less bed, set of labs, CT scan, ect. for each person avoiding the cost.  

Edited by btq96r
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6 hours ago, Hozzie said:

I guess I am a bad person as I just don't care about this at all.  Seems to me all of the impact is caused by proliferation of the apparent societal desire that only the worst possible outcomes will happen regardless of reality.

Is it contagious, sure.  Is it deadly to a few, yes.  Is it going to stop the world as we know it, of course not. 

It's simply a self fulfilling prophecy which is being exacerbated by the media looking for the most sensational story possible.

If this was 30 years ago we probably wouldn't have heard about it and probably would have been better off.

However if it was 100 years ago, it would probably kill many, many more. 

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How many folks here actually know someone who is sick with this virus?

How many knew someone with SARS, Bird Flu or any of the others from the last 20 years?

I do believe the media and others are making more of this than there is. Some countries are going to have more cases and more deaths do to how they act and react to the virus.

Cases are going to be under reported as I believe it is in all situations like this.

What is the effective treatment and does everyone with the virus get it?

What affect has it had on your basic life style?

If it is as bad or worse than some believe then what are your plans to stay safe and alive?

I do believe it will pass as others have but to what extent will the deaths and damage be?

Right now, I believe, it is being blown out of proportion and used for political and monetary reasons, and possible other reasons. 

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11 minutes ago, DWARREN123 said:

How many folks here actually know someone who is sick with this virus?

I know someone who is positive, who’s family is likely positive, and some others who are waiting to find out (the test is not instant like a flu test).

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12 minutes ago, DWARREN123 said:

How many folks here actually know someone who is sick with this virus?

It kills me that I can't talk about my job here.  When I say y'all should take this more seriously than some of you are....

 

harry potter i give up GIF

 

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Here's something else to consider for folks that aren't inclined to think about the strict medical side of all this...how many folks can your work lose to sick days or quarantine before the organization becomes ineffective?  The answer is probably well less than 100%. 

I'm sure not all of us are blessed with a work from home capacity, especially in manufacturing, retail, customer services, and other fields.  Really, unless your job can be done on a personal computer or work laptop from home, this could impact you without you ever getting sick by forcing your job to enact unpaid furloughs, or having some service you rely on enact measures that restrict your day to day lives. 

Just a thought.

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1 minute ago, btq96r said:

Here's something else to consider for folks that aren't inclined to think about the strict medical side of all this...how many folks can your work lose to sick days or quarantine before the organization becomes ineffective?  The answer is probably well less than 100%. 

I'm sure not all of us are blessed with a work from home capacity, especially in manufacturing, retail, customer services, and other fields.  Really, unless your job can be done on a personal computer or work laptop from home, this could impact you without you ever getting sick by forcing your job to enact unpaid furloughs, or having some service you rely on enact measures that restrict your day to day lives. 

Just a thought.

Those were my thoughts also about the manufacturing industry. And then, “stay at home if you think you are sick, and you will get paid”. :)

This has to be devastating to the tourism industry. Their jobs, and all the other jobs they support.

Unless they find a vaccine quick the economic impact will be devastating in addition to the medical impact.

I see where some places, like Washington state, are considering limiting the size of groups. Governor Inslee used his emergency powers to put restrictions on gatherings of more than 250 people in three counties. That includes concerts, sporting events, large church services, conventions and festivals.

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1 hour ago, Snaveba said:

I know someone who is positive, who’s family is likely positive, and some others who are waiting to find out (the test is not instant like a flu test).

So how are they?  

 

As for work, I have no "work from home" options. I do have a significant amount of time off saved up, so I can burn a couple weeks if I have to. 

 

As for travel, I think the first week of April may be interesting.  Spring break is next few weeks here. I know lots of people are headed to the beach for the week.  Most all of the southeast coastal states have diagnosed cases.  I expect the number of cases to shoot up by mid April.

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11 minutes ago, peejman said:

So how are they?  

As of now, they are relatively fine. No serious symptoms. But since some of the data is possibly indicating that the 50-60 age group is more susceptible, it is a watch and wait situation. 

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I work in transportation. My customer is a manufacturer that makes toilet paper, hand sanitizer, baby wipes etc. We're already seeing major disruptions and they are running low on inventory.

My industry alone has the power to bring this country to its knees. If even 1/5 of truck drivers get scared enough to stop coming into work it's gonna hurt. I know for a fact that J.B Hunt, Swift, Werner and few others are already working on contingency plans for sending employees home. My friend at Hub Group said they are making sure employees have VPN access. 

I've largely tried to downplay this virus but I'm now thinking that things are about to get interesting. I went out today and filled up gas cans and bought essentials.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Snaveba said:

However if it was 100 years ago, it would probably kill many, many more. 

In China sure.  It would have probably made it here, but being travel was much different, it may not have been here at all.

Edited by Hozzie
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