SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[Omega]

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

Quote

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

Of course, NOW, they are changing what they tell the public.  Again, what has changed?????

[Omega]

14 minutes ago, peejman said:

My interpretation is the CDC didn't directly say that the recommended cycle count was too high.  However, it very unlikely for an asymptomatic person to be a "super spreader" even with a positve test.  

Of course they are not going to directly come out and say it, but they recommended the cycle count of 40, 40 when they damn well knew that after 33 it was pretty much guaranteed to give many false positives.  So why would an organization charged to protect us from health issues actually make the situation worse?  @TGO Davidsays we wouldn't survive something like ebola, if he is right, it won't be because of the public, but because of the manipulation by the very organizations that are supposed to give us correct scientific data, not political data.

[Omega]

6 hours ago, mikegideon said:

Since this is a thread about health, this audio track will serve to caution you about gerbils in the butt...  

 

Video blocked here, but I suspect it may be Armageddon from Robert D. Raiford on John Boy and Billy, a freaking classic.  If it is not, duckduckgo it, it is hilarious.

[TGO David]

Tolerate me, please, while I wax poetically about masks.    I'll preface my words by saying that I am a COVID-19 "survivor" and fairly recently at that.

I am pretty sure I know where I contracted it because I hadn't been anywhere else.  I am sure I caught it at church recently on a day when we had record attendance and I could count the number of people wearing masks on one hand.  Out of a few thousand.  The fact that I was wearing a fleece face covering while volunteering (outside in 20-degree weather, mind you) didn't help me.  I was exposed and then followed it with an abusive and exhausting pace at work for the next three days that sapped my body's ability to resist the virus.  It was the perfect storm, so to speak.

 

So here's the deal:  You all know the science and statistics regarding N95 masks, fabric face coverings, and why none of them are going to stop you from inhaling something as small as a virus.  But hopefully you all possess the common sense to understand that those same things will stop you from spraying a cough or a sneeze 10+ feet away from you, and keep you from coughing into a hand that you then use to touch or handle something that other people are going to touch or handle.  And that's the whole point of them.

This particular virus is pretty communicable.   It both "survives" on surfaces and remains airborne long enough, if coughed or sneezed into the atmosphere, to be a problem for people in confined spaces.  A mask isn't going go keep you from catching it but it has a good chance of stopping you from spreading it to other people. 

 

I made it nearly a year without contracting it and credit that to working from home 100% of the time since last February, avoiding prolonged contact with large groups of people in confined spaces, using hand sanitizer before I get into any of my vehicles after handling or touching things that other people might have handled or touched, and staying reasonably fit by exercising almost daily and getting plenty of sleep.  I wore a mask or face covering whenever I was in close proximity to others in public, but that was never for my sake.

Now that I've had it, I will keep wearing a mask until enough people are vaccinated that we can stand-down.  Having the antibodies for it helps me.  It doesn't help anyone else.  It doesn't stop me from having the crap lurking in my sinuses where I can spread it to other people, but a mask will mitigate it.

 

TLDR:  Masking is effective for everyone's sake except the wearer.  The weak link in this protocol is anyone who chooses not to wear one when around other people.   If the reason you don't want to wear a mask, is because it doesn't help you directly, you might need to consider whether you're being a selfish asshole or not because I am pretty sure that anyone who does wear a mask is helping you.  These statements are based on personal experience, common sense, and 40+ years of understanding the scientific method and believing that medical professionals aren't out to get me.

 

[deerslayer]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

I never got the action figure. It wasn’t even offered to me. WTF!?

They’re actually telling folks now that exposure might not yield a lasting antibody response to it anyway but they suspect that subsequent infection (there’s a real happy thought) will be less severe.  I’ll probably take the vaccine once it’s available to me. 

My experience with it is pretty similar to yours. It slowed me down but it didn’t knock me out of commission. It was like the flu. The worst parts were the crazy body temperature fluctuations and the loss of ability to smell anything or taste most things. Losing the ability to taste or smell coffee really sucked.

You and I are lucky. We were just inconvenienced by it.
 

 

It was more than an inconvenience—I was down for the count for a week or so.  I was hoping when I inevitably got it, I would have mild symptoms for a couple days like so many have.  That ain’t how it went, but I didn’t freak out and run to the hospital.  I was looking forward to losing taste for a while so I could possibly lose my fondness for chocolate chip cookies, but I lost only smell and that was temporary.  
 

I’ve read antibodies are good for two months or eight, nobody really knows.  

[deerslayer]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

So here's the deal:  You all know the science and statistics regarding N95 masks, fabric face coverings, and why none of them are going to stop you from inhaling something as small as a virus.  But hopefully you all possess the common sense to understand that those same things will stop you from spraying a cough or a sneeze 10+ feet away from you, and keep you from coughing into a hand that you then use to touch or handle something that other people are going to touch or handle.  And that's the whole point of them. 

I think the assumption that, since masks hinder the spread of spit and snot from an outgoing cough or sneeze, they must undoubtedly also filter an outgoing microscopic virus, is problematic.  The videos and images that show the spit spray from a sneeze masked vs unmasked can’t see or measure how far a virus actually travels and since masks don’t filter something as small as a virus, they may possibly be completely ineffective.  Add to that the constant touching and fiddling and adjusting of masks being worn and one begins to wonder if masks are merely a “feel good” activity that .gov makes us do to appear they know best.  
 

Having said that, I wear one where required and see at least 95% of folks doing the same.  

Edited January 21, 2021 by deerslayer

[Erik88]

If we are to assume that most of the medical community is wrong in their belief that masks help slow the spread, what exactly is their motivation for telling us to wear one? Why would they lie to us about something like that? Every person I know that works in the medical field believes that masks help slow the spread. 

[peejman]

13 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

I think the assumption that, since masks hinder the spread of spit and snot from an outgoing cough or sneeze, they must undoubtedly also filter an outgoing microscopic virus, is problematic.  The videos and images that show the spit spray from a sneeze masked vs unmasked can’t see or measure how far a virus actually travels and since masks don’t filter something as small as a virus, they may possibly be completely ineffective.  Add to that the constant touching and fiddling and adjusting of masks being worn and one begins to wonder if masks are merely a “feel good” activity that .gov makes us do to appear they know best.  
 

Having said that, I wear one where required and see at least 95% of folks doing the same.  

The spit/snot/mucus/moisture is the carrier. Think of it like the VOC's in a spray paint can. The virus particles are stuck to and in the moisture and need it to survive. Without the moisture, they dry out and die quickly.  The moisture helps the virus live long enough to be touched or inhaled by another host.  

And all masks are definitely not created equally. Most single ply cotton masks help a little, but not much more than sneezing into your elbow or shoulder. The 2 and 3 ply work better. Then into surgical masks and respirators that are yet more effective.  

[deerslayer]

32 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

If we are to assume that most of the medical community is wrong in their belief that masks help slow the spread, what exactly is their motivation for telling us to wear one? Why would they lie to us about something like that? Every person I know that works in the medical field believes that masks help slow the spread. 

The medical community like this guy?

[Tedro2022]

2 hours ago, Erik88 said:

How exactly are we in a "lock down"? Every business I could possibly want to visit is open. Last week I went to a UT basketball game(with a mask). Bars are open. Restaurants are open. Hell, even the terrible night clubs we have in Knoxville are open. I was able to fly to Mexico in November. We aren't on anything even close to a "lock down".  The only thing they are even asking of us at this point is to wear a mask, and not make out with strangers. They are even sending us checks in the mail!  

You’re right, shouldn’t have said lockdown because we’re not in a lockdown. Should have said week 49 of flattening the curve. And we’ve still yet to flatten the curve. 

[E4 No More]

27 minutes ago, peejman said:

The spit/snot/mucus/moisture is the carrier. Think of it like the VOC's in a spray paint can. The virus particles are stuck to and in the moisture and need it to survive. Without the moisture, they dry out and die quickly.  The moisture helps the virus live long enough to be touched or inhaled by another host.  

And all masks are definitely not created equally. Most single ply cotton masks help a little, but not much more than sneezing into your elbow or shoulder. The 2 and 3 ply work better. Then into surgical masks and respirators that are yet more effective.  

Actually, the government and private researchers were reporting that the virus could live for days on a surface - long after the droplet evaporated.

[TGO David]

9 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

The medical community like this guy?

 

Eh, open-air space and I suspect the people immediately around him are people he's around all the time without a mask anyway.  Family?  Friends?  Co-conspirators? 

This week has been a really good reminder, for me at least, of a very fundamental truth.  Having COVID reminded me of it.  Watching Joe Biden be inaugurated reminded me of it.

 

Not everything is political, but everything can be politicized.

 

Each of us have the power to  allow ourselves to be focused, or not, on the political aspects of anything. Nothing good comes from listening to politicians or pundits for medical advice.

 

 

[TGO David]

10 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

Actually, the government and private researchers were reporting that the virus could live for days on a surface - long after the droplet evaporated.

For the sake of accuracy, the virus isn't alive.  What allows it to exist in a potent state is moisture.  Ideally for its sake the moisture generally comes from a human host.  Outside of a human host, the virus remains potent for as long as its lipid shell remains intact.  As that breaks down from UV light and lack of moisture, the virus degrades and loses its potency. 

Cleaning sprays also dissolve or accelerate the destruction of the the shell that protects the viral RNA payload.

This is why antibiotics don't kill viruses.  They aren't alive.  There's nothing to kill.

 

 

[deerslayer]

6 minutes ago, TGO David said:

Eh, open-air space and I suspect the people immediately around him are people he's around all the time without a mask anyway.  Family?  Friends?  Co-conspirators? 

This week has been a really good reminder, for me at least, of a very fundamental truth.  Having COVID reminded me of it.  Watching Joe Biden be inaugurated reminded me of it.

 

Not everything is political, but everything can be politicized.

 

Each of us have the power to  allow ourselves to be focused, or not, on the political aspects of anything. Nothing good comes from listening to politicians or pundits for medical advice.

 

 

LOL @ “co-conpirators”

I have two problems with this virus—we almost certainly have flawed numbers because we incentivized a covid diagnosis, death, or trip to the respirator.  Also, there is wide acceptance of politicians making medical decisions and medical folks making political decisions.  
 

I did recently read one medical expert’s opinion that social distancing is not effective unless people are 30 METERS apart.  If Team Kamala adopts that as policy, I guess I will have the whole second floor at work to myself.  

[Erik88]

38 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

The medical community like this guy?

 

He was sitting with his wife and his friend. I don't see a huge issue there but I get that it looked bad. 

Back to my question, what is the reason for telling us all to wear a mask if they don't believe it works? Did they all buy shares of 3M prior to this? 

[E4 No More]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

For the sake of accuracy, the virus isn't alive.  What allows it to exist in a potent state is moisture.  Ideally for its sake the moisture generally comes from a human host.  Outside of a human host, the virus remains potent for as long as its lipid shell remains intact.  As that breaks down from UV light and lack of moisture, the virus degrades and loses its potency.

This is why antibiotics don't kill viruses.  They aren't alive.  There's nothing to kill.

 

Yep, I'm aware - I've had extensive training in biology and microbiology although that was back around 1995. Back then the scientific community was debating whether a virus was a form of life or not since it cannot create it's own DNA/RNA. Without a source of water the virus would survive off of what water is inside its version of a cell membrane until it is depleted. That would depend on the surrounding humidity and the permeability of the tegument and the envelope. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by E4 No More

[TGO David]

10 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

LOL @ “co-conpirators”

I threw that one in there for giggles.  Fauci's biggest downfall was allowing himself to become political instead of holding his ground as a scientist.  The whole debacle of him switching direction on masks and initially downplaying their effectiveness as a ploy to keep PPE supplies from being sucked up by hoarders was a big, big mistake.

 

10 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

I have two problems with this virus—we almost certainly have flawed numbers because we incentivized a covid diagnosis, death, or trip to the respirator.  Also, there is wide acceptance of politicians making medical decisions and medical folks making political decisions.  

Agreed.

 

10 minutes ago, deerslayer said:

I did recently read one medical expert’s opinion that social distancing is not effective unless people are 30 METERS apart.  If Team Kamala adopts that as policy, I guess I will have the whole second floor at work to myself.  

They're making the argument I need for my own mountaintop or remote island.   I just need a few more stimulus checks so that I can afford one of them. 

 

[mikegideon]

3 hours ago, Omega said:

Video blocked here, but I suspect it may be Armageddon from Robert D. Raiford on John Boy and Billy, a freaking classic.  If it is not, duckduckgo it, it is hilarious.

That's a shame. Best gerbil story ever. I figured it was old enough that it was good for a rerun.

[Alleycat72]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

For the sake of accuracy, the virus isn't alive.  What allows it to exist in a potent state is moisture.  Ideally for its sake the moisture generally comes from a human host.  Outside of a human host, the virus remains potent for as long as its lipid shell remains intact.  As that breaks down from UV light and lack of moisture, the virus degrades and loses its potency. 

Cleaning sprays also dissolve or accelerate the destruction of the the shell that protects the viral RNA payload.

This is why antibiotics don't kill viruses.  They aren't alive.  There's nothing to kill.

 

 

Some say fire is alive because it meets the definition. Probably should revisit the definition of alive. A large segment of the population can't figure it out. 

[deerslayer]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

He was sitting with his wife and his friend. I don't see a huge issue there but I get that it looked bad. 

Back to my question, what is the reason for telling us all to wear a mask if they don't believe it works? Did they all buy shares of 3M prior to this? 

While I’m sure many religiously believe in masks, not all do.  I occasionally shoot pistol matches with a couple medical types (one runs a family practice) and, although they don’t shake hands or give man-hugs, I’ve never seen either of them wearing a mask.  

Some medical folks may be simply making sure they toe the company line or face some consequences.  A little far-fetched, perhaps, but in the age of cancel culture and de-platforming, one can’t be too careful nowadays.  

Edited January 21, 2021 by deerslayer

[jgradyc]

2 hours ago, deerslayer said:

The medical community like this guy?

 

Dr. Fauci isn't ignorant. He's arrogant. He knows the risk of infection outdoors is nonexistent unless you're surrounded by a pack of people. He also knows that vitamin D greatly reduces the risk of COVID 19 and, when directly asked, he admitted to taking vitamin D himself... but he refuses to even mention vitamin D in his nearly daily press interviews.

I quit listening to this guy when he lied to us about masks back in March, saying they didn't work and then in the next sentence, saying we desperately need more PPEs (aka masks) for medical professionals.  WTF?! 

It's tragic that thousands of people died because our public health officials refused to say, "We don't know for sure yet if it helps, but initial studies on vitamin D are promising. Clinical trials on vitamin D are underway, but until results are in, we urge everyone to take vitamin D."

 

[mikegideon]

The mask thing is pretty simple to me. It's only complicated because it has been heavily politicized like most other things. A mask will trap the droplets that transport the virus. I wear one in public because it's the law around these parts. I'm convinced that they work in a lot of cases, but not all. 

The whole Covid 19 response has been a bunch of genuine care for the human race, and blind opportunism from politicians, health care folks, and folks in general.

I'm going for the vaccine ASAP. My girlfriend has some auto immune stuff. Her doctor has recommended against the current vaccines for her. He's waiting on the third.

[Erik88]

The problem with some of the conspiracy theories surrounding COVID is that in order to believe them, you have to think the government is far more competent than they really are. What we've seen is a government that really wasn't equipped to handle something like this. We didn't even have a good stash of PPE.

[mikegideon]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

The problem with some of the conspiracy theories surrounding COVID is that in order to believe them, you have to think the government is far more competent than they really are. What we've seen is a government that really wasn't equipped to handle something like this. We didn't even have a good stash of PPE.

There were plenty of conspiracy theories. And there were two sides to everything that came out. And lots of folks took a side. The response hammered the economy. And yes, some folks could see a benefit to that. Others believed that the cost/benefit equation was out of whack. And some believed that it was all made up. Personally, I have always believed it was real, and have always believed it was exploited by some. But, to each his own. I guess it's ok to believe that some folks aren't going to get richer due to their own manipulation. Never seen that one before.  

The government slacked on the PPE stash long ago. But, that's easy to understand how if you have ever done budgets. Global pandemics of this size are rare.

Available vaccines change everything. The presence of antibodies (for theraputics) changes everything too. I want this thing gone.

EDIT: And BTW, I'm never one to give the government too much credit. It is a self serving beast. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by mikegideon

[TGO David]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

The problem with some of the conspiracy theories surrounding COVID is that in order to believe them, you have to think the government is far more competent than they really are. What we've seen is a government that really wasn't equipped to handle something like this. We didn't even have a good stash of PPE.

Yep.  The only thing the government is good at is hoodooing people into furthering its expansion.  The best and brightest minds that our country has to offer generally don't go into politics, and yet our society seems to trust their chosen political team implicitly.